期货市场风险高，波动大，一个决策偏差就可能让财富灰飞烟灭。在这样的市场中，很少能有人大获全 胜，全身而退。即便那些经验丰富的投资者，也可能在某个关键节点因决策失误而遭受重创。今天就和 大家说说早年在期货论坛版块中，那些曾声名赫赫、备受瞩目的人物，最终却大多走向了令人唏嘘的结 局，他们的故事值得我们深思。 01 多空---自称"我做多的品种，这品种只能涨" 此言何等的嚣张，不过以他在期市混十几年来看的确有点本事。07年底的那一场轰轰烈烈的大豆涨势他 也多进去了，太容易得来的大财使他飘飘然，在08年3月14号，他认为大豆回调到位了，便以4500的高 价重仓追多。之后四个连续的爆跌，使这位期货王子十几年的心血毁于一旦。 从此这个期货牛人就慢慢转型炒股去了。 02 在人间---虽不是元老级国宝，但一贴"我完全不懂很多人为什么会亏钱"，在论坛家喻户晓 他最特别的就是研究了一套"幽灵操作法，一时间为他带来了丰厚的回报，所以他奇怪别人为啥会亏 钱？无限的自信给这位灵王带来了一失足成千古恨下场，在08年9月份时以21000的价格重仓做多天胶。 一不小心两天留夜，来了两个大跌，但灵王自信还能大涨，后来的金融危机爆发便足足出现连 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - High: Silver, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Iron Ore, Bean Meal, Soybean Oil, Ethylene Glycol, Polypropylene, Plastic, Methanol [2][3][4][5][6] - Medium: Polysilicon, Coke, PTA, PVC [2][4][5][6] - Low: Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Stainless Steel, Corn, Glass [2][3][4][5] - Relatively Low: Alumina, Soda Ash [3][5] 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including supply - demand relationships, cost changes, policy impacts, and geopolitical situations. During the National Day holiday, due to the closure of the domestic market and potential fluctuations in the overseas market, there are many uncertainties, so it is recommended to control positions to avoid risks. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: Positive factors include strong industrial demand, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, and tight supply in the delivery area. Negative factors are the risk of technical correction and an increase in speculative short positions [2]. - **Gold**: Positive factors are its geopolitical hedging function, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, and central banks' gold purchases. Negative factors are the potential strengthening of the dollar and U.S. bond yields [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive factors are the Fed's interest - rate cut and shortages in copper ore raw materials. Negative factors are the high price not being recognized by downstream and the risk of the market moving in the opposite direction of the bullish expectation [2]. - **Aluminum**: Positive factors are limited supply increase and strong demand in some sectors. Negative factors are continuous inventory accumulation and high prices suppressing consumption [3]. - **Alumina**: Positive factors are high raw material costs and potential supply shortages due to environmental inspections. Negative factors are new production capacity release and imported goods' impact [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Positive factors are steel mills' pre - holiday restocking and overseas demand resilience. Negative factors are increased global shipments and high port inventories [3]. - **Rebar**: Positive factors are macro - policy support and potential demand improvement. Negative factors are the failure of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Positive factors are increased raw material prices. Negative factors are inventory accumulation and high production [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Positive factors are increased raw material costs and strong demand. Negative factors are high production rates and weak market sentiment [2][3]. - **Polysilicon**: Positive factors are policy support and increased downstream acceptance. Negative factors are over - capacity and slow inventory reduction [2]. - **Coke**: Positive factors are supply contraction and high raw material costs. Negative factors are weak demand and potential supply pressure [4]. - **PTA**: Positive factors are production reduction plans by leading enterprises. Negative factors are weak cost support and low downstream inventory replenishment willingness [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Positive factors are geopolitical premiums. Negative factors are increased supply and weak demand [5]. - **Soda Ash**: Positive factors are strong cost support. Negative factors are over - production in the peak season and weak downstream demand [5]. - **Glass**: Positive factors are policy expectations and reduced inventory pressure. Negative factors are increased supply and high intermediate - trader inventories [5]. - **PVC**: Positive factors are cost support and low valuation. Negative factors are high supply and weak demand [6]. - **Polypropylene**: Positive factors are reduced supply due to maintenance and potential demand improvement. Negative factors are weak demand, high supply, and potential cost reduction [6]. - **Plastic**: Positive factors are the peak demand season and pre - holiday inventory replenishment. Negative factors are weak cost support and high supply [6]. - **Methanol**: Positive factors are expected device restart and supply disruptions. Negative factors are high domestic production and low - cost imports [6]. Agricultural Products - **Bean Meal**: Positive factors are increased soybean drought area and a long - term supply gap. Negative factors are sufficient short - term supply and weak demand [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: Positive factors are the same as bean meal. Negative factors are unclear bio - fuel policies and high inventory [4]. - **Corn**: Positive factors are short - term supply shortages and inventory replenishment demand. Negative factors are increased production and policy - driven supply reduction [4]. - **Cotton**: Positive factors are low commercial inventory and cost support. Negative factors are potential global economic slowdown and high supply expectations [4][5].