Report Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the copper market show that enterprises have restocking expectations, raw material supply is tight, which will affect refined copper production. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations and China's continuous introduction of favorable policies will support market risk sentiment and prices [7]. - The global copper inventory has increased, with significant increases in domestic and COMEX inventories. Copper prices have risen, suppressing downstream demand and terminal consumption, and weakening enterprise orders. The supply of copper concentrates is continuously tight, and the smelting losses are expanding. The waste copper import has changed from profit to loss, which may affect subsequent imports [7]. - The US economic data has boosted interest rate cut expectations, and China has continuously introduced favorable policies. In terms of trading strategies, previous long positions can be held, and new long positions should be cautious. The logic of domestic term positive spread trading is strengthened, and opportunities to go long on volatility can be considered [7]. Summary by Directory Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE copper and INE copper has rebounded, while that of LME copper and COMEX copper has declined. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 7%, and the SHFE copper volatility has slightly rebounded [11]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount has expanded. The SHFE 09 - 10 spread has risen from a premium of 50 yuan/ton on September 5th to a premium of 300 yuan/ton on September 12th. The LME 0 - 3 discount has expanded from $68.04/ton on September 5th to $73.42/ton on September 12th [14][15]. - Position: The positions of COMEX copper, SHFE copper, INE copper, and LME copper have all increased. The SHFE copper position has increased by 6,774 lots to 522,500 lots [17]. - Capital and Industry Position: The net long position of CFTC non - commercial traders has increased from 25,700 lots on September 2nd to 27,200 lots on September 9th. The net short position of LME commercial traders has increased from 54,300 lots to 56,900 lots [23]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot premium has decreased from a premium of 165 yuan/ton on September 5th to a premium of 85 yuan/ton on September 12th. The Yangshan Port copper premium has fallen from $57/ton on September 5th to $56/ton on September 12th [27][29]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased from 638,800 tons on September 4th to 644,800 tons on September 11th. The domestic social inventory has increased, the bonded area inventory has decreased, the COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased [30][33]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio has declined. The SHFE 10 - contract position - to - inventory ratio has declined but is still at a high level in the same period of history [34]. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year, and the processing fee has weakened marginally. In July 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. The port inventory has increased, and the spot TC has weakened to - $41.3/ton on September 12th [37]. - Recycled Copper: The import volume of recycled copper has decreased year - on - year, and the domestic production has increased slightly. In July, the import of recycled copper was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and the domestic production was 99,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.81%. The scrap - refined copper price difference has expanded, and the import has changed from profit to loss [39][43]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has increased, and the processing fee is at a low level. In July, the blister copper import was 84,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. The processing fee in August was at a low level [47]. - Refined Copper: The production of refined copper has increased more than expected, the import has increased, and the import loss has expanded. The domestic refined copper production in August was 1.1715 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The import in July was 296,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. The spot import loss has expanded from 43.98 yuan/ton on September 5th to 229.03 yuan/ton on September 12th [51]. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises in August has weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes in August was at a low level in the same period of history, and that of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral - low level. The operating rate of wire and cable has slightly rebounded in the week of September 11th [54]. - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods is at a low level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes has rebounded. As of September 12th, the processing fee of copper rods in the power industry in East China was 570 yuan/ton, lower than that on September 5th. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee of R410A special purple copper tubes on September 12th was 5,104 yuan/ton, higher than that on September 5th [60]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In August, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a low level. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable has remained low [61]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and that of wire and cable has increased. In August, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral - high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level. The weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased [64]. Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of copper is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to July, the cumulative actual consumption was 9.2236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.06%, and the apparent consumption was 9.2812 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.28%. The power grid investment from January to July was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [69]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slightly decreased, and the production of new - energy vehicles is at a high level in the same period of history. In July, the domestic air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.01%, and the new - energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.32% [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold shows no obvious driving force and its price fluctuates; silver fluctuates within a range. The short - term upward driving force of gold is not obvious, but it is also supported downward, and the price is in a fluctuating pattern with a possible narrowing of volatility [7]. - Copper's fundamental reality is strong, bringing opportunities for term positive spreads trading. However, the Trump tariff policy brings uncertainties [86][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Performance - This week, precious metals continued to rise. London gold rose 2.3%, and London silver rose 0.46%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 100 to 102.3, the 10 - year TIPS rose to 2.08%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.37% (2 - year 3.88%), and the US dollar index was 100.04 [7]. Price Spreads - Overseas: The spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 2.64 dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 2.8 dollars/ounce. The spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver main contract widened to - 0.163 dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.43 dollars/ounce [13][16]. - Domestic: This week, the gold futures - spot spread was - 3.12 yuan/gram, and the silver futures - spot spread was - 18 yuan/kilogram, both at the lower end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 6.24 yuan/gram, and the silver monthly spread was 64 yuan/kilogram, also at the lower end of the historical range [20][23][27][31]. Inventory and Position - COMEX: Gold inventory decreased by 2.12 million ounces to 39.15 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55.3%. Silver inventory increased by 4.06 million ounces to 503.58 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 33.3% [41][43]. - Futures: Gold futures inventory increased by 1590 tons, and silver futures inventory increased by 3.14 tons to 934 tons [45]. - ETF: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 7.47 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 51.04 tons [52][54]. Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [65]. Copper Market Performance - The price range of copper is 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The term spread of Shanghai copper strengthened, and the domestic social inventory of copper continued to decline [86][88][90]. Trading End - Volatility: The copper volatility in four markets declined. The COMEX price volatility fell to around 20%, and the LME copper price volatility fell to around 13% [97]. - Term Spread: The term B - structure of Shanghai copper strengthened, and the LME copper spot premium expanded. The spread between Shanghai copper 05 - 06 widened from 230 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread rose from 20.23 dollars/ton to a premium of 49.19 dollars/ton [100][102]. - Position: The copper positions in four markets increased, with a significant increase in Shanghai copper positions, which increased by 33,000 lots to 550,000 lots [103]. - Inventory: The global total inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory of copper continued to decline [93]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Copper concentrate imports increased, but the processing fee declined, and smelting losses expanded. The import volume of recycled copper decreased, and the domestic output declined significantly. The supply of blister copper was tight, and the processing fee fell to a historically low level [95]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper product enterprises were differentiated and generally weakened. The consumption was apparently good, with power grid investment and air - conditioning production being important supports [95].