Report Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the copper market show that enterprises have restocking expectations, raw material supply is tight, which will affect refined copper production. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations and China's continuous introduction of favorable policies will support market risk sentiment and prices [7]. - The global copper inventory has increased, with significant increases in domestic and COMEX inventories. Copper prices have risen, suppressing downstream demand and terminal consumption, and weakening enterprise orders. The supply of copper concentrates is continuously tight, and the smelting losses are expanding. The waste copper import has changed from profit to loss, which may affect subsequent imports [7]. - The US economic data has boosted interest rate cut expectations, and China has continuously introduced favorable policies. In terms of trading strategies, previous long positions can be held, and new long positions should be cautious. The logic of domestic term positive spread trading is strengthened, and opportunities to go long on volatility can be considered [7]. Summary by Directory Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE copper and INE copper has rebounded, while that of LME copper and COMEX copper has declined. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 7%, and the SHFE copper volatility has slightly rebounded [11]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount has expanded. The SHFE 09 - 10 spread has risen from a premium of 50 yuan/ton on September 5th to a premium of 300 yuan/ton on September 12th. The LME 0 - 3 discount has expanded from $68.04/ton on September 5th to $73.42/ton on September 12th [14][15]. - Position: The positions of COMEX copper, SHFE copper, INE copper, and LME copper have all increased. The SHFE copper position has increased by 6,774 lots to 522,500 lots [17]. - Capital and Industry Position: The net long position of CFTC non - commercial traders has increased from 25,700 lots on September 2nd to 27,200 lots on September 9th. The net short position of LME commercial traders has increased from 54,300 lots to 56,900 lots [23]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot premium has decreased from a premium of 165 yuan/ton on September 5th to a premium of 85 yuan/ton on September 12th. The Yangshan Port copper premium has fallen from $57/ton on September 5th to $56/ton on September 12th [27][29]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased from 638,800 tons on September 4th to 644,800 tons on September 11th. The domestic social inventory has increased, the bonded area inventory has decreased, the COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased [30][33]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio has declined. The SHFE 10 - contract position - to - inventory ratio has declined but is still at a high level in the same period of history [34]. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year, and the processing fee has weakened marginally. In July 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. The port inventory has increased, and the spot TC has weakened to - $41.3/ton on September 12th [37]. - Recycled Copper: The import volume of recycled copper has decreased year - on - year, and the domestic production has increased slightly. In July, the import of recycled copper was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and the domestic production was 99,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.81%. The scrap - refined copper price difference has expanded, and the import has changed from profit to loss [39][43]. - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has increased, and the processing fee is at a low level. In July, the blister copper import was 84,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. The processing fee in August was at a low level [47]. - Refined Copper: The production of refined copper has increased more than expected, the import has increased, and the import loss has expanded. The domestic refined copper production in August was 1.1715 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The import in July was 296,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. The spot import loss has expanded from 43.98 yuan/ton on September 5th to 229.03 yuan/ton on September 12th [51]. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises in August has weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes in August was at a low level in the same period of history, and that of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral - low level. The operating rate of wire and cable has slightly rebounded in the week of September 11th [54]. - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods is at a low level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes has rebounded. As of September 12th, the processing fee of copper rods in the power industry in East China was 570 yuan/ton, lower than that on September 5th. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee of R410A special purple copper tubes on September 12th was 5,104 yuan/ton, higher than that on September 5th [60]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In August, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a low level. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable has remained low [61]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and that of wire and cable has increased. In August, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral - high level in the same period of history, and that of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level. The weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased [64]. Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of copper is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to July, the cumulative actual consumption was 9.2236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.06%, and the apparent consumption was 9.2812 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.28%. The power grid investment from January to July was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [69]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slightly decreased, and the production of new - energy vehicles is at a high level in the same period of history. In July, the domestic air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.01%, and the new - energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.32% [72].

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年05月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 07 锡：区间窄幅震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 01 黄金：驱动不明显，价格震荡 白银：区间震荡 02 03 铜：基本面现实较强，带来期限正套交易机会 铝：一度领跌有色板块，继续跟踪光伏排产 氧化铝：关注产能事态发展，现货端有所坚挺 04 铸造铝合金：承压运行，相较于A00继续 ...