段永平的投资哲学以"买股票即买企业"为核心，融合巴菲特价值投资与东方智慧。 1. 内在价值的"毛估估"：2001年以0.8美元抄底网易，基于游戏现金流测算，而非市场恐慌。 2. 长期主义的"十年维度"：持有苹果超10年，收益800%，源于对生态系统粘性的洞察。 3. 商业模式的"本质筛选"：规避航空、代工等低毛利行业，专注茅台（毛利率90%）、腾讯（网络效应）等护城河标的。 ——本质主义与长期主义的胜利 - - - - 段永平的决策模型强调能力圈内的深度认知。 2. 企业文化"DNA论"：步步高的"本分"文化、苹果的用户导向，成为风险抵御的关键 3. 估值安全边际：2016年格力PE低于10倍时重仓，遵循"五毛买一元"原则。 1. 四问法则：是否懂行业？商业模式是否优秀？管理层是否诚信？价格是否合理？ 1. 极致集中：苹果占美股持仓70%，茅台占A股50%，认为分散稀释认知红利。 能力圈边界：专注消费电子、互联网、白酒，拒接金融、比特币等复杂领域。 - - - - - - - - 2. 逆向布局：2022年腾讯跌破200港元时增持，基于微信生态货币化潜力。 3. 动态纠错：2020年清仓航空股，因疫情暴露行业 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes a shift from traditional demand research to a dynamic sequence thinking approach, suggesting that true needs are triggered by context rather than predefined lists [1][5] - It critiques the conventional methodology of focusing solely on customer needs, arguing that this perspective assumes the existence of objectively measurable problems [2][5] Group 1: Demand Research Methodology - Traditional demand research operates under the assumption that there are objective hidden desires that can be discovered and enumerated [5] - The article suggests that effective demand arises from specific behavioral sequences, and appropriate prompts can stimulate these needs [5][6] - Observational techniques are highlighted as essential, where experienced founders act like ethnographers to create a comprehensive profile of their target customers [2][3] Group 2: Dynamic Sequence Thinking - The article advocates for abandoning objectivity in demand research, proposing that presenting one's worldview can crystallize customers' chaotic thoughts into concrete needs [3][4] - It illustrates that demand is context-dependent and not an isolated entity, emphasizing the importance of situational triggers in generating needs [4][5] - The process of creating demand is likened to a learning experience, where trial and error lead to the ability to generate responses to various situations [8][9] Group 3: Practical Application - The article encourages individuals to observe and respond to their environment actively, akin to how a language model learns to generate appropriate responses based on context [7][8] - It describes the journey of mastering the ability to create demand as a developmental process, similar to learning to walk, where repeated attempts lead to proficiency [8][9] - Ultimately, the goal is to become adept at generating the right sequences that evoke desired responses from others [6][8]