昨晚特拉斯发布25年Q3财报并召开业绩电话会，随后大摩和高盛都发布相关业绩点评研报，也基本上 代表了两种主流市场观点：可以接受和有些失望。 其中大摩发布了主题为《特斯拉第三季度业绩：普罗米修斯耸了耸肩》研报，重点强调：1.数据足够接 近预期，足以让市场共识大致保持不变。2.高质量结果：尽管第三季度在某些方面未达预期，但库存水 平降至仅10天的供应量，自由现金流表现强劲。3.汽车业务仅占收入的75%。随着服务/其他业务（同比 增长25%）和能源业务（同比增长44%）持续增长，特斯拉的收入来源正进一步向经常性收入多元化。 另一方高盛则对特斯拉Q3财报评价为好坏参半偏负面，虽然营收和总体毛利率略高于市场预期，但部 分关键指标（如汽车业务非GAAP毛利率、非GAAPEPS）低于预期，且Optimus3（人形机器人）相关 时间表延后，引发投资者担忧。高盛维持 "中性（Neutral）评级"，并将12个月目标价下调至400美元 （原425美元）。 下面我们重点就大家最关心的特斯拉人形机器人进展、时间表、指引以及对国内机器人产业链影响的部 分，给大家梳理分析一下，以期帮助大家投资机器人做到"心中有数"。 战略转向：特斯拉的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Q3 earnings report has elicited mixed reactions from the market, with Morgan Stanley viewing the results as acceptable while Goldman Sachs expresses disappointment due to key indicators falling short of expectations [2][4]. Financial Performance - Tesla's Q3 results were close enough to market expectations to maintain consensus, with a strong free cash flow and inventory levels reduced to just 10 days of supply [2]. - Revenue from automotive business accounted for 75%, while service/other businesses and energy business saw year-on-year growth of 25% and 44%, respectively, indicating a diversification of revenue sources [2]. AI and Robotics Strategy - Elon Musk spent 80% of the earnings call discussing AI and robotics, indicating a strategic shift towards building a "real-world AI" ecosystem with FSD algorithms, Dojo supercomputing, and Optimus robots [4]. - The robot strategy is structured in three phases: short-term reliance on automotive business, mid-term synergy between FSD and Optimus, and long-term subscription model for "robots as a service" [4]. Technical Challenges - The development of the Optimus robot faces significant engineering challenges, particularly in achieving human-like dexterity and AI capabilities [5][6]. - The V3 version of Optimus has made progress, with the number of hand actuators increasing from 28 to 31, but still requires substantial advancements in AI training data and energy efficiency [6]. Production Timeline - Tesla has provided a clear production roadmap for the Optimus robot, with plans to showcase the GEN3 version in Q1 2026 and achieve a production capacity of one million units by the end of 2026 [8]. - The credibility of this timeline is supported by Tesla's active factory audits and supply chain development in multiple countries [8]. Industry Impact - The announcement of a million-unit production capacity is expected to significantly impact the supply chain, benefiting precision transmission companies and torque sensor manufacturers while pressuring traditional industrial robot manufacturers [9]. - Tesla's potential vertical integration strategy may disrupt existing supply chains, as the company aims to self-source key components like motors and reducers [9]. Future Outlook - The market is divided on Tesla's long-term valuation, with optimistic projections suggesting a $500 billion market for humanoid robots by 2028, while cautious analysts highlight risks related to technology and policy [12]. - Key challenges include validating demand, reducing production costs from $50,000 to below $20,000, and establishing an ecosystem similar to Apple's App Store for developers and applications [12].