未来1000天内，人工智能不仅将取代工作岗位，更将彻底重塑人类的经济结构。 AI的「无情优化」可能让人类劳动力变得一文不值，甚至变成负值。 在最近的《影响理论》（Impact Theory）播客节目上，Emad Mostaque讨论了他的新书《最后的经济》。 Stability AI前CEO、缔造者Emad Mostaque，观点惊人： Emad是最早为对冲基金经理，现为Intelligent Internet创始人。凭借在金融和AI领域的双重资历，他的话不容小觑。 在节目中，Emad勾勒出当前经济体系的「终结」，以及AI驱动下的「最后经济体」将呈现的面貌。 他认为，在AI主导下，传统经济指标如GDP将失去意义；人类劳动的价值不只是归零，有可能转为负值；但即使如此，我们依然能够在这场变革中实现 情感与财务上的双重丰盛。 主持人Tom Bilyeu追问了Emad残酷真相和实用方案——剖析个人、社会甚至政府，该怎么应对AI或将引起的混乱？在智能机器主导的时代，如何赢得真 正的国家繁荣？ 这不仅仅是无尽的悲观预测，而是应对史上最大经济转型的路线图。 左：Tom Bilyeu；右：Emad Mostaque 经济学？ ...

Group 1 - Geoffrey Hinton warns that the rise of lethal autonomous weapons, such as killer robots and drones, is making it easier to initiate wars [1][6][7] - Hinton emphasizes that the emergence of autonomous weapons lowers the humanitarian costs of war, making it more likely for wealthy nations to invade poorer ones [7][8] - The cost of war is decreasing due to the replacement of human soldiers with robots, which could encourage governments to engage in conflicts more readily [7][8][9] Group 2 - Hinton expresses concern about the long-term risk of AI taking over, rather than immediate malicious use by bad actors [9][10] - He suggests that the only way to prevent AI from taking over is to ensure that superintelligent AI does not desire to do so, which requires international cooperation [10][11] - Hinton highlights the potential for AI to replace jobs across various sectors, including low-wage and even some high-empathy roles like nursing and medicine [11][12][13] Group 3 - Hinton discusses the implications of AI in the medical field, noting its ability to predict health issues and assist in drug design [16][17][18][20] - He believes that AI could lead to significant advancements in healthcare within the next few years [20][21] - Hinton critiques AI companies for not prioritizing safety in their development efforts, indicating a need for more focus on secure AI practices [22][23][24] Group 4 - Hinton introduces the concept of "AI mother," suggesting that AI could be designed with a nurturing instinct to ensure human success [28][30] - This idea challenges the traditional view of humans as the apex of intelligence, proposing a relationship where humans are akin to children in relation to AI [30][31] - Hinton's recent optimism about AI's future stems from this new perspective on coexistence with AI [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of a "robot tax" is gaining traction as a response to the economic and social changes brought about by automation and artificial intelligence, with discussions occurring in various countries including the US, Germany, and South Korea [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Potential and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market could exceed $5 trillion, with over 1 billion humanoid robots in use, indicating a significant technological shift comparable to the internet [2]. - The rapid development of humanoid robots is expected to lead to substantial market growth, with projections suggesting that China could have over 100 million humanoid robots in use by 2045, creating a market size of approximately 10 trillion yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - The introduction of a "robot tax" is seen as a way to redistribute the economic benefits of automation, addressing potential job losses and funding social programs such as retraining for displaced workers and universal basic income (UBI) [3][4]. - Experts argue that taxing robots could provide new fiscal resources to support social safety nets, especially as traditional labor-based tax systems face challenges due to automation [3][4]. Group 3: Global Discussions and Perspectives - Germany has been discussing the "robot tax" for years, with labor unions supporting the idea while businesses express concerns that such a tax could stifle innovation and economic growth [5][6]. - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has advocated for a robot tax to ensure economic sustainability and equitable distribution of the benefits of AI and automation, although there are calls to address more pressing issues like technological independence first [6][7]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - Experts caution that the timing for implementing a universal robot tax may not be ripe, as the humanoid robot industry is still in its early commercial application stages, with significant uncertainties regarding technology and market dynamics [9][10]. - A more prudent approach may involve phased strategies that focus on encouraging innovation and establishing standards rather than immediate taxation, allowing for pilot programs to assess the impact of such policies [10][11].

Core Concept - The discussion around a "robot tax" has gained traction due to the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, raising concerns about job displacement and the need for a new tax framework to address the economic and social implications of automation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Potential and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market could exceed $5 trillion, with over 1 billion humanoid robots in use, indicating a significant technological shift comparable to the internet [2]. - The humanoid robot industry is currently transitioning from experimental phases to industrial applications, with projections suggesting that China could have over 100 million humanoid robots in use by 2045, with a market size reaching approximately 10 trillion yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - The concept of a "robot tax" is seen as a proactive response to the economic changes brought about by automation, aiming to redistribute the productivity gains from technology to support retraining and social welfare programs [3][4]. - Experts argue that taxing automation could provide new fiscal resources to support displaced workers and explore models like Universal Basic Income (UBI) [3][4]. Group 3: Global Perspectives and Challenges - Countries like Germany and South Korea have engaged in discussions about implementing a robot tax, with varying opinions from labor unions and business sectors regarding its potential impact on innovation and economic growth [5][6]. - Concerns exist that a poorly designed robot tax could stifle innovation and place domestic industries at a competitive disadvantage globally, highlighting the need for careful policy design [7][9]. Group 4: Current Industry Status and Recommendations - The humanoid robot industry is still in its early commercial application stages, facing challenges such as high manufacturing costs and limited operational capabilities, which hinder widespread adoption [9][10]. - Experts recommend a phased approach to policy development, focusing on encouraging innovation and establishing standards rather than rushing into taxation, to create a supportive environment for the industry's growth [10].

Group 1: Autonomous Vehicles and Robotics - The emergence of RoboTaxi services in Shanghai, with companies like Pony.ai, Baidu, and others leading the charge, marks a significant step towards the integration of autonomous vehicles into everyday life [1][5] - The development of consumer-grade drones and other robotic technologies is transforming various sectors, including urban delivery and agricultural tasks, showcasing the versatility of automation [3][5] - The concept of "无人公司" (unmanned companies) is introduced, where AI-driven systems manage operations without direct human intervention, leading to efficient and cost-effective business models [5][6] Group 2: Economic Implications of AI - AI is seen as a disruptor of traditional economic structures, potentially leading to a new class of "useless people" whose economic value diminishes in the face of automation [6][9] - The article discusses the need for a new economic model that prioritizes wealth distribution and human dignity over traditional employment, suggesting concepts like Universal Basic Income (UBI) as potential solutions [9][10] - The narrative emphasizes the importance of redefining the meaning of work and existence in an AI-driven future, where creativity and personal fulfillment take precedence over conventional job roles [10][11] Group 3: Future Perspectives - The article presents a dichotomy between two potential futures: one where AI leads to a controlled, consumerist society, and another where it fosters freedom and dignity for all individuals [11][12] - The discussion highlights the necessity for a cultural shift to match the technological advancements brought by AI, advocating for trust, connection, and harmony in society [11][12] - Ultimately, the potential of AI to create abundance is juxtaposed with the risk of societal disconnection, emphasizing the need for collective action to harness this technology for the greater good [12][13]

Group 1 - The core motivation behind Musk's establishment of the "American Party" is his opposition to both major political parties' agendas [2][5][10] - Musk criticizes the Democratic Party for its "woke culture," increasing leftist policies, and stringent tech regulations, which he believes hinder innovation [3][4] - Although the Republican Party aligns more with Musk's preferences on tax cuts and market freedom, he disagrees with their stance on key issues, leading to a split over the "Big and Beautiful" bill [4][10] Group 2 - The "American Party" aims to secure a few seats in Congress rather than becoming a ruling party, leveraging its position to influence legislation when the two major parties are closely matched [17][18][22] - The challenges for third parties in the U.S. stem from the electoral system, voter psychology, and resource inequality, making it difficult for them to gain traction [11][24][25] - Musk's status as a billionaire and a prominent public figure may provide a unique opportunity to overcome traditional barriers faced by third parties [27][28] Group 3 - The emergence of AI and its potential societal impacts may necessitate a new political structure, which Musk appears to be preparing for with the "American Party" [30][31][44] - The future may see a return to a form of "medieval" wealth distribution, where the wealthy have responsibilities akin to feudal lords, potentially leading to a new social order [36][40][41] - Discussions around Universal Basic Income (UBI) are gaining traction, with Musk engaging with figures like Andrew Yang, indicating a possible alignment with future economic models [43][45]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing AI with curiosity and optimism rather than fear, suggesting that AI will enhance human creativity and productivity rather than replace jobs [3][4] - It highlights the necessity for individuals to adapt and learn new skills, particularly in programming and social skills, to thrive in an AI-driven future [5][6] - The discussion includes the potential for new entrepreneurial opportunities in the AI space, predicting the emergence of new tech giants in the next 5 to 10 years [11][12] AI Integration and Future Work - AI tools are expected to become ubiquitous, with every engineer using at least one co-pilot agent by 2025, marking a new standard in professional development [8] - The article suggests that while AI will automate many tasks, human creativity and social skills will remain crucial for success [5][6] - There is skepticism about the feasibility of universal basic income (UBI) due to inherent human competition and the physical limitations of producing all necessary goods [9][10] Entrepreneurial Opportunities - The article posits that there will be significant opportunities for startups to create new companies that could rival existing tech giants, provided they find unique, technology-enabled paths [11][12] - It encourages entrepreneurs to focus on underexplored sectors where AI can create unique value, rather than trying to replicate existing successful companies [13][14] - The healthcare and education sectors are highlighted as areas ripe for transformation through AI, with potential for improved efficiency and personalized experiences [15] Skills for the AI Era - The article stresses the importance of programming skills and creative thinking, suggesting that early adopters of AI tools will have a competitive advantage [5][6] - It advocates for a balance between technical skills and social skills, emphasizing that understanding human insights will be key in leveraging AI effectively [12][13] - The need for a foundational understanding of mathematics and logical reasoning is acknowledged, even as tools like calculators and AI become prevalent [6]

"我一点也不担心超级 AI，我担心的是愚蠢 AI。" 文丨曾梦龙 编辑丨钱杨 黄俊杰 10 月 14 日，达龙·阿西莫格鲁（Daron Acemoglu）在希腊雅典一家酒店的阳台上，接到了诺贝尔奖委员会的电话。"人们很早就说过你会获奖，你一定想到了 这一刻的到来。" 工作人员说。 阿西莫格鲁近年来一直是诺奖热门人选。对熟悉经济学的人来说，他得奖并不让人意外。他和合作者西蒙·约翰逊（Simon Johnson）、詹姆斯·A. 罗宾逊 （James A. Robinson）因对 "制度如何形成并影响繁荣" 的研究共享 2024 年诺贝尔经济学奖。 阿西莫格鲁回答，"你可以做梦，但永远不会想到它会发生。这是一件美妙的事情。" 获奖前的一两年里，阿西莫格鲁的名字频繁与 "AI" 一同出现在新闻标题里。阿西莫格鲁认为现在整个行业陷入 "通用人工智能"（AGI）的竞赛，希望利用这 项技术实现自动化、创造数字广告收入的发展方向错了，疯狂买入英伟达显卡只是在浪费钱。他的观点影响了高盛在今年 6 月的报告《通用 AI：花得太多； 收益太小？》（GEN AI: Too Much Spend Too Little Benefit? ...

特斯拉毛利率最好别再跌了 LVMH 二季度业绩会提了 48 次中国 多地商贷利率逼近公积金 日本和中国台湾遭遇新一轮新冠疫情 最大规模基本收入研究结果出炉 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 特斯拉毛利率最好别再跌了 最巅峰的时候，特斯拉是汽车行业利润率最高的公司，一度超过了劳斯莱斯，这让它在必要时可以牺牲 利润换销量。 现在特斯拉已经降得快没多少利润空间了。管理层在业绩会上只提了一次 "利润率"，是 CFO Vaibhav Taneja 在开场发言环节讲的，"总体而言，我们汽车利润率环比持平"。 今年二季度，特斯拉扣除积分收入后的汽车销售毛利率约为 14.6%、为近五年新低。如果再扣掉租赁业 务，纯汽车销售毛利率进一步降至 13.86%。前两天发二季报的 "传统汽车公司" 通用汽车，大约是 12.2% 的汽车销售毛利率，比高点少了一半多。 如果我们再苛刻一点，把分别占收入 3.5% 和 1.4% 的积分和利息收入去掉，特斯拉二季度极端假设下的 营业利润率还有大约 1.4%（财报口径是 6.3%）。 业绩发布后，特斯拉股价重挫 12%。 二季度总收入 255 亿美元，其中汽车销售收入（不含 ...