01 问：自ChatGPT发布以来，生成式AI技术发展迅速。这些技术对社会、经济和科学研究的主要影响是 什么？ Joanna Bryson： 对于科学研究，人工智能在某种程度上加速了科研进程，但它本质上只是一个工具。 换句话说，它和我们做其他工作的工具没有太大区别，不必过于强调它的特殊性。 在社会层面，经济和政治是两大重要方面。从经济学角度来看，引入自动化可能带来两种效应：一种是 替代效应，即减少对劳动力的需求；另一种是增强效应，即通过提高生产力来创造更多就业。我认为关 于这个主题最好的论文来自詹姆斯·贝森 （ Jam es B essen）。Oxford的研究显示，英国目前并未显现出 明显的替代效应，反而在高生产力领域看到了更多的就业机会。然而，考虑到创建大型语言模型的高成 本，其经济效益是否能覆盖这些投入仍然不明确。 在政治方面，经济衰退及其引发的不安全感可能导致政治极化，尤其是在社交媒体和人工智能的作用 下，针对性信息传播成为可能。经济安全感的丧失，尤其是意外的经济下滑 （如失业、负债） ，常常 会导致个体的身份认同危机，进而引发群体认同需求，甚至有可能转向极端行为。在经济不稳定时期， 这种易受操控的心 ...

被访谈人：Joanna Bryson 柏林赫尔蒂学院伦理与技术教授 整理： 曹建峰 腾讯研究院高级研究员 本文根据柏林赫尔蒂学院伦理与技术教授 乔安娜·布赖森 （ Joanna Bryson） 在腾讯研究院 AI&Society 海外专家面对面系列对话中的分享整理而成，分享主题 为" AI只是可控工具 "。 本文为 腾讯研究院 AI&society 海外名家对话 系列第三篇 问：自ChatGPT发布以来，生成式AI技术发展迅速。这些技术对社会、经济和科学研究的主要影响是什么？ Joanna Bryson： 对于科学研究，人工智能在某种程度上加速了科研进程，但它本质上只是一个工具。换句话说，它和我们做其他工作的工具没有太大区 别，不必过于强调它的特殊性。 在社会层面，经济和政治是两大重要方面。从经济学角度来看，引入自动化可能带来两种效应：一种是替代效应，即减少对劳动力的需求；另一种是增强效 应，即通过提高生产力来创造更多就业。我认为关于这个主题最好的论文来自詹姆斯·贝森 （ Jam es B essen） 。Oxford的研究显示，英国目前并未显现出明显 的替代效应，反而在高生产力领域看到了更多的就业机会。然而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of work in the context of technological advancements, particularly artificial intelligence, and its implications for employment, social structures, and economic inequality. Group 1: Employment Trends - Major companies like Amazon and Microsoft are announcing significant layoffs, indicating a shift in employment dynamics and raising concerns about job security in both the US and China [4][5]. - The traditional path to success through education and stable employment is becoming increasingly crowded and uncertain, leading to a disillusionment with the narrative of hard work as a guaranteed route to success [5]. Group 2: Historical Context of Work - The concept of work is a relatively recent construct in human history, primarily shaped by capitalism and the industrial revolution, which established a rigid separation between work and leisure [7][8]. - In pre-industrial societies, work was integrated with social and leisure activities, contrasting sharply with the modern notion of work as a distinct and often burdensome obligation [7][8]. Group 3: The Impact of AI on Work - The rise of AI is leading to the "McDonaldization" of knowledge work, where complex tasks are broken down into standardized, easily executable components, diminishing the creative and intellectual aspects of jobs [14][16]. - AI is increasingly taking over tasks traditionally performed by knowledge workers, such as programming and legal research, fundamentally altering the nature of these professions [15][16]. Group 4: Social Implications of Economic Changes - The article highlights a growing divide between the affluent and the "downstream" classes, where economic stagnation and job insecurity are leading to a loss of hope and ambition among the middle class [21][24]. - The phenomenon of "downstream society" reflects a broader trend of social stratification, where opportunities for upward mobility are diminishing, particularly for younger generations [21][22][26]. Group 5: Policy Responses and Future Outlook - The discussion around Universal Basic Income (UBI) and other social safety nets is gaining traction as a potential solution to address the inequalities exacerbated by technological advancements and economic shifts [30][34]. - The article suggests that without significant reforms in wealth distribution and social welfare, the stability of modern capitalist democracies may be at risk, necessitating a reevaluation of societal values and priorities [28][38].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's market capitalization recently surpassed $5 trillion, indicating strong market demand despite current valuations. However, the article warns that the company's valuation appears to be "perfectly priced," suggesting potential risks for investors considering buying Nvidia stock [1]. Group 1: Future Profitability - Analysts predict Nvidia's earnings per share (EPS) will grow significantly over the next decade, with estimates showing a fourfold increase and an annual growth rate exceeding 15%. This expectation is unprecedented in business history [3][8]. - The current EPS estimates for the next ten years show substantial year-over-year growth, with predictions of 51.33% growth in 2026 and 44.67% in 2027, but these projections are viewed with skepticism due to their divergence from historical performance [5][8]. - The article emphasizes that extrapolating short-term exponential growth into the future is often a flawed forecasting method, leading analysts to question the sustainability of such high growth rates [9]. Group 2: Competitive Risks - High profitability in Nvidia's business model is likely to attract competitors, which could impact future earnings. The article highlights that the assumption of Nvidia's "moat" remaining intact for the next decade is overly optimistic [10]. - Major competitors like AMD and Intel are poised to challenge Nvidia, and large tech companies such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are developing their own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia's products [10][11]. - The demand for high-end chips may decline as alternative, lower-cost computing solutions become viable, further threatening Nvidia's market position [11]. Group 3: Energy Capacity Constraints - The increasing demand for power from data centers could lead to a bottleneck in energy supply, potentially hindering Nvidia's business expansion [12][13]. - Rising electricity costs and potential public backlash against AI could result in policy pressures that negatively affect Nvidia's operations [13][14]. Group 4: Taxation Risks from Universal Basic Income (UBI) - The potential implementation of UBI to address job displacement caused by AI could lead to increased taxation, targeting profitable companies like Nvidia. This risk is not currently factored into analysts' forecasts [15]. Group 5: Signals of Demand Peak - There are concerns that Nvidia's demand may be nearing its peak, which would undermine the optimistic profit forecasts. The article discusses "circular trading" practices that raise questions about the sustainability of demand for Nvidia's products [16][19]. - The reliance on funding from companies like OpenAI to purchase Nvidia's chips suggests a potentially artificial demand that could indicate a market bubble [21]. Conclusion - Investors considering Nvidia must accept a series of extreme assumptions regarding future profitability, competition, energy constraints, taxation, and demand sustainability. The current valuation reflects a scenario that is difficult to achieve, indicating that Nvidia is a classic case of "perfect pricing" with limited upside and significant downside risks [22].

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the economy, suggesting that within the next 1000 days, AI will not only replace jobs but also fundamentally reshape the economic structure of humanity [1][2][5]. Economic Transformation - Emad Mostaque, in his book "The Last Economy," argues that traditional economic indicators like GDP will lose significance in an AI-driven economy, where human labor may not only lose value but could potentially become a liability [2][5][12]. - The current economic models are inadequate in capturing real-world dynamics, as evidenced by significant statistical errors in employment data [10][12]. - Mostaque proposes a new economic measurement system that focuses on "liquidity" and "elasticity," emphasizing the flow of capital, creativity, and talent, rather than solely relying on GDP [12][21]. New Economic Framework - Mostaque introduces the "MIND" framework, which includes four types of capital: Material, Intelligence, Network, and Diversity, to better assess economic health [21][23]. - This framework highlights the interdependence of these capital types, suggesting that the absence of any one type could lead to systemic failure [29]. Stages of Economic Inversion - The article outlines four historical inversions in economic power: land, labor, capital, and currently, intelligence, where AI is set to dominate economic growth [30][34]. - Mostaque emphasizes that we are in the midst of the most significant inversion, where AI is replacing cognitive labor and reshaping the workforce [34][38]. Societal Implications - The rise of AI is expected to lead to increased economic inequality, as companies that leverage AI will have a competitive advantage over those relying on human labor [48][49]. - Mostaque warns of potential societal unrest as AI-driven efficiencies may lead to widespread job displacement, particularly in middle-class professions [48][49]. Future Economic Systems - Mostaque advocates for the establishment of a Universal Basic AI and a new "human-centered" currency to address the challenges posed by AI [52][53]. - He stresses the need for a new economic order that prioritizes collective human knowledge and organized systems to ensure societal stability in an AI-dominated future [53].

Group 1 - Geoffrey Hinton warns that the rise of lethal autonomous weapons, such as killer robots and drones, is making it easier to initiate wars [1][6][7] - Hinton emphasizes that the emergence of autonomous weapons lowers the humanitarian costs of war, making it more likely for wealthy nations to invade poorer ones [7][8] - The cost of war is decreasing due to the replacement of human soldiers with robots, which could encourage governments to engage in conflicts more readily [7][8][9] Group 2 - Hinton expresses concern about the long-term risk of AI taking over, rather than immediate malicious use by bad actors [9][10] - He suggests that the only way to prevent AI from taking over is to ensure that superintelligent AI does not desire to do so, which requires international cooperation [10][11] - Hinton highlights the potential for AI to replace jobs across various sectors, including low-wage and even some high-empathy roles like nursing and medicine [11][12][13] Group 3 - Hinton discusses the implications of AI in the medical field, noting its ability to predict health issues and assist in drug design [16][17][18][20] - He believes that AI could lead to significant advancements in healthcare within the next few years [20][21] - Hinton critiques AI companies for not prioritizing safety in their development efforts, indicating a need for more focus on secure AI practices [22][23][24] Group 4 - Hinton introduces the concept of "AI mother," suggesting that AI could be designed with a nurturing instinct to ensure human success [28][30] - This idea challenges the traditional view of humans as the apex of intelligence, proposing a relationship where humans are akin to children in relation to AI [30][31] - Hinton's recent optimism about AI's future stems from this new perspective on coexistence with AI [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of a "robot tax" is gaining traction as a response to the economic and social changes brought about by automation and artificial intelligence, with discussions occurring in various countries including the US, Germany, and South Korea [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Potential and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market could exceed $5 trillion, with over 1 billion humanoid robots in use, indicating a significant technological shift comparable to the internet [2]. - The rapid development of humanoid robots is expected to lead to substantial market growth, with projections suggesting that China could have over 100 million humanoid robots in use by 2045, creating a market size of approximately 10 trillion yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - The introduction of a "robot tax" is seen as a way to redistribute the economic benefits of automation, addressing potential job losses and funding social programs such as retraining for displaced workers and universal basic income (UBI) [3][4]. - Experts argue that taxing robots could provide new fiscal resources to support social safety nets, especially as traditional labor-based tax systems face challenges due to automation [3][4]. Group 3: Global Discussions and Perspectives - Germany has been discussing the "robot tax" for years, with labor unions supporting the idea while businesses express concerns that such a tax could stifle innovation and economic growth [5][6]. - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has advocated for a robot tax to ensure economic sustainability and equitable distribution of the benefits of AI and automation, although there are calls to address more pressing issues like technological independence first [6][7]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - Experts caution that the timing for implementing a universal robot tax may not be ripe, as the humanoid robot industry is still in its early commercial application stages, with significant uncertainties regarding technology and market dynamics [9][10]. - A more prudent approach may involve phased strategies that focus on encouraging innovation and establishing standards rather than immediate taxation, allowing for pilot programs to assess the impact of such policies [10][11].

Core Concept - The discussion around a "robot tax" has gained traction due to the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, raising concerns about job displacement and the need for a new tax framework to address the economic and social implications of automation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Potential and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market could exceed $5 trillion, with over 1 billion humanoid robots in use, indicating a significant technological shift comparable to the internet [2]. - The humanoid robot industry is currently transitioning from experimental phases to industrial applications, with projections suggesting that China could have over 100 million humanoid robots in use by 2045, with a market size reaching approximately 10 trillion yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - The concept of a "robot tax" is seen as a proactive response to the economic changes brought about by automation, aiming to redistribute the productivity gains from technology to support retraining and social welfare programs [3][4]. - Experts argue that taxing automation could provide new fiscal resources to support displaced workers and explore models like Universal Basic Income (UBI) [3][4]. Group 3: Global Perspectives and Challenges - Countries like Germany and South Korea have engaged in discussions about implementing a robot tax, with varying opinions from labor unions and business sectors regarding its potential impact on innovation and economic growth [5][6]. - Concerns exist that a poorly designed robot tax could stifle innovation and place domestic industries at a competitive disadvantage globally, highlighting the need for careful policy design [7][9]. Group 4: Current Industry Status and Recommendations - The humanoid robot industry is still in its early commercial application stages, facing challenges such as high manufacturing costs and limited operational capabilities, which hinder widespread adoption [9][10]. - Experts recommend a phased approach to policy development, focusing on encouraging innovation and establishing standards rather than rushing into taxation, to create a supportive environment for the industry's growth [10].

Group 1: Autonomous Vehicles and Robotics - The emergence of RoboTaxi services in Shanghai, with companies like Pony.ai, Baidu, and others leading the charge, marks a significant step towards the integration of autonomous vehicles into everyday life [1][5] - The development of consumer-grade drones and other robotic technologies is transforming various sectors, including urban delivery and agricultural tasks, showcasing the versatility of automation [3][5] - The concept of "无人公司" (unmanned companies) is introduced, where AI-driven systems manage operations without direct human intervention, leading to efficient and cost-effective business models [5][6] Group 2: Economic Implications of AI - AI is seen as a disruptor of traditional economic structures, potentially leading to a new class of "useless people" whose economic value diminishes in the face of automation [6][9] - The article discusses the need for a new economic model that prioritizes wealth distribution and human dignity over traditional employment, suggesting concepts like Universal Basic Income (UBI) as potential solutions [9][10] - The narrative emphasizes the importance of redefining the meaning of work and existence in an AI-driven future, where creativity and personal fulfillment take precedence over conventional job roles [10][11] Group 3: Future Perspectives - The article presents a dichotomy between two potential futures: one where AI leads to a controlled, consumerist society, and another where it fosters freedom and dignity for all individuals [11][12] - The discussion highlights the necessity for a cultural shift to match the technological advancements brought by AI, advocating for trust, connection, and harmony in society [11][12] - Ultimately, the potential of AI to create abundance is juxtaposed with the risk of societal disconnection, emphasizing the need for collective action to harness this technology for the greater good [12][13]

Group 1 - The core motivation behind Musk's establishment of the "American Party" is his opposition to both major political parties' agendas [2][5][10] - Musk criticizes the Democratic Party for its "woke culture," increasing leftist policies, and stringent tech regulations, which he believes hinder innovation [3][4] - Although the Republican Party aligns more with Musk's preferences on tax cuts and market freedom, he disagrees with their stance on key issues, leading to a split over the "Big and Beautiful" bill [4][10] Group 2 - The "American Party" aims to secure a few seats in Congress rather than becoming a ruling party, leveraging its position to influence legislation when the two major parties are closely matched [17][18][22] - The challenges for third parties in the U.S. stem from the electoral system, voter psychology, and resource inequality, making it difficult for them to gain traction [11][24][25] - Musk's status as a billionaire and a prominent public figure may provide a unique opportunity to overcome traditional barriers faced by third parties [27][28] Group 3 - The emergence of AI and its potential societal impacts may necessitate a new political structure, which Musk appears to be preparing for with the "American Party" [30][31][44] - The future may see a return to a form of "medieval" wealth distribution, where the wealthy have responsibilities akin to feudal lords, potentially leading to a new social order [36][40][41] - Discussions around Universal Basic Income (UBI) are gaining traction, with Musk engaging with figures like Andrew Yang, indicating a possible alignment with future economic models [43][45]