本文来自微信公众号： 波波夫同学 ，作者：波波夫，头图来自：AI生成 以下文章来源于波波夫同学 ，作者波波夫 波波夫同学 . 波波夫同学，关注被科技改变的世界，相信人性光辉的绵长。 亚马逊裁员一万四、微软裁员一万五、沃尔玛未来三年员工总数零增长...... 当一家公司宣布裁员时，如果不是你所在的公司，不是你所在的部门，不是你认识的人，它就只是一 组数字或一条新闻，人类同情心的触发阈值越来越高。这就像环保主义者天天谈的气候末日论，大部 分人都是充耳不闻，除非大海淹到家门口，才会真的关心并相信灾难来了。 没有经历过气候灾难的人，无法理解家园被毁的绝望。没有经历过失业的人，只会低估了失业带来的 身心双重打击。无论中国还是美国，主流社会中，失业往往被视为个人失败，因此，人们不愿谈论 它，甚至避免去思考它，总相信车到山前必有路，船到桥头自然直，从而减少了公共讨论和防范意 识。 于是，我们过去熟悉的打怪升级的路径，上名校、进大公司、考公考编，没有比这更成功、稳妥的人 生之路，于是日复一日、年复一年地重演，人们甚至从来不去质疑这套打法的深层假设：资源是稀缺 的，物资是匮乏的，机会要靠竞争，生活要靠工作，人生成就由工作来定义 ...

1. 未来盈利能力："向天生长" 的盈利预期，史无前例 先看分析师对英伟达未来 10 年每股收益（EPS）的预测 —— 这相当于他们对 "黑箱吐现能 力" 的判断。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 | Fiscal Period Ending | EPS Estimate | YoY Growth | Forward PE | Low | High | # of Analysts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jan 2026 | 4.52 | 51.33% | 45.76 | 4.14 | 5.23 | 48 | | Jan 2027 | 6.55 | 44.67% | 31.63 | 4.91 | 8.75 | 52 | | Jan 2028 | 7.99 | 22.10% | 25.90 | 5.33 | 10.65 | 27 | | Jan 2029 | 8.73 | 9.18% | 23.72 | 6.33 | 10.99 | ਤੇ | | Jan 2030 | 10.06 | 15.28% | 20.58 | 7.33 | 12 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the economy, suggesting that within the next 1000 days, AI will not only replace jobs but also fundamentally reshape the economic structure of humanity [1][2][5]. Economic Transformation - Emad Mostaque, in his book "The Last Economy," argues that traditional economic indicators like GDP will lose significance in an AI-driven economy, where human labor may not only lose value but could potentially become a liability [2][5][12]. - The current economic models are inadequate in capturing real-world dynamics, as evidenced by significant statistical errors in employment data [10][12]. - Mostaque proposes a new economic measurement system that focuses on "liquidity" and "elasticity," emphasizing the flow of capital, creativity, and talent, rather than solely relying on GDP [12][21]. New Economic Framework - Mostaque introduces the "MIND" framework, which includes four types of capital: Material, Intelligence, Network, and Diversity, to better assess economic health [21][23]. - This framework highlights the interdependence of these capital types, suggesting that the absence of any one type could lead to systemic failure [29]. Stages of Economic Inversion - The article outlines four historical inversions in economic power: land, labor, capital, and currently, intelligence, where AI is set to dominate economic growth [30][34]. - Mostaque emphasizes that we are in the midst of the most significant inversion, where AI is replacing cognitive labor and reshaping the workforce [34][38]. Societal Implications - The rise of AI is expected to lead to increased economic inequality, as companies that leverage AI will have a competitive advantage over those relying on human labor [48][49]. - Mostaque warns of potential societal unrest as AI-driven efficiencies may lead to widespread job displacement, particularly in middle-class professions [48][49]. Future Economic Systems - Mostaque advocates for the establishment of a Universal Basic AI and a new "human-centered" currency to address the challenges posed by AI [52][53]. - He stresses the need for a new economic order that prioritizes collective human knowledge and organized systems to ensure societal stability in an AI-dominated future [53].

Group 1 - Geoffrey Hinton warns that the rise of lethal autonomous weapons, such as killer robots and drones, is making it easier to initiate wars [1][6][7] - Hinton emphasizes that the emergence of autonomous weapons lowers the humanitarian costs of war, making it more likely for wealthy nations to invade poorer ones [7][8] - The cost of war is decreasing due to the replacement of human soldiers with robots, which could encourage governments to engage in conflicts more readily [7][8][9] Group 2 - Hinton expresses concern about the long-term risk of AI taking over, rather than immediate malicious use by bad actors [9][10] - He suggests that the only way to prevent AI from taking over is to ensure that superintelligent AI does not desire to do so, which requires international cooperation [10][11] - Hinton highlights the potential for AI to replace jobs across various sectors, including low-wage and even some high-empathy roles like nursing and medicine [11][12][13] Group 3 - Hinton discusses the implications of AI in the medical field, noting its ability to predict health issues and assist in drug design [16][17][18][20] - He believes that AI could lead to significant advancements in healthcare within the next few years [20][21] - Hinton critiques AI companies for not prioritizing safety in their development efforts, indicating a need for more focus on secure AI practices [22][23][24] Group 4 - Hinton introduces the concept of "AI mother," suggesting that AI could be designed with a nurturing instinct to ensure human success [28][30] - This idea challenges the traditional view of humans as the apex of intelligence, proposing a relationship where humans are akin to children in relation to AI [30][31] - Hinton's recent optimism about AI's future stems from this new perspective on coexistence with AI [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of a "robot tax" is gaining traction as a response to the economic and social changes brought about by automation and artificial intelligence, with discussions occurring in various countries including the US, Germany, and South Korea [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Potential and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market could exceed $5 trillion, with over 1 billion humanoid robots in use, indicating a significant technological shift comparable to the internet [2]. - The rapid development of humanoid robots is expected to lead to substantial market growth, with projections suggesting that China could have over 100 million humanoid robots in use by 2045, creating a market size of approximately 10 trillion yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - The introduction of a "robot tax" is seen as a way to redistribute the economic benefits of automation, addressing potential job losses and funding social programs such as retraining for displaced workers and universal basic income (UBI) [3][4]. - Experts argue that taxing robots could provide new fiscal resources to support social safety nets, especially as traditional labor-based tax systems face challenges due to automation [3][4]. Group 3: Global Discussions and Perspectives - Germany has been discussing the "robot tax" for years, with labor unions supporting the idea while businesses express concerns that such a tax could stifle innovation and economic growth [5][6]. - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has advocated for a robot tax to ensure economic sustainability and equitable distribution of the benefits of AI and automation, although there are calls to address more pressing issues like technological independence first [6][7]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - Experts caution that the timing for implementing a universal robot tax may not be ripe, as the humanoid robot industry is still in its early commercial application stages, with significant uncertainties regarding technology and market dynamics [9][10]. - A more prudent approach may involve phased strategies that focus on encouraging innovation and establishing standards rather than immediate taxation, allowing for pilot programs to assess the impact of such policies [10][11].

Core Concept - The discussion around a "robot tax" has gained traction due to the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, raising concerns about job displacement and the need for a new tax framework to address the economic and social implications of automation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Potential and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market could exceed $5 trillion, with over 1 billion humanoid robots in use, indicating a significant technological shift comparable to the internet [2]. - The humanoid robot industry is currently transitioning from experimental phases to industrial applications, with projections suggesting that China could have over 100 million humanoid robots in use by 2045, with a market size reaching approximately 10 trillion yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - The concept of a "robot tax" is seen as a proactive response to the economic changes brought about by automation, aiming to redistribute the productivity gains from technology to support retraining and social welfare programs [3][4]. - Experts argue that taxing automation could provide new fiscal resources to support displaced workers and explore models like Universal Basic Income (UBI) [3][4]. Group 3: Global Perspectives and Challenges - Countries like Germany and South Korea have engaged in discussions about implementing a robot tax, with varying opinions from labor unions and business sectors regarding its potential impact on innovation and economic growth [5][6]. - Concerns exist that a poorly designed robot tax could stifle innovation and place domestic industries at a competitive disadvantage globally, highlighting the need for careful policy design [7][9]. Group 4: Current Industry Status and Recommendations - The humanoid robot industry is still in its early commercial application stages, facing challenges such as high manufacturing costs and limited operational capabilities, which hinder widespread adoption [9][10]. - Experts recommend a phased approach to policy development, focusing on encouraging innovation and establishing standards rather than rushing into taxation, to create a supportive environment for the industry's growth [10].

Group 1: Autonomous Vehicles and Robotics - The emergence of RoboTaxi services in Shanghai, with companies like Pony.ai, Baidu, and others leading the charge, marks a significant step towards the integration of autonomous vehicles into everyday life [1][5] - The development of consumer-grade drones and other robotic technologies is transforming various sectors, including urban delivery and agricultural tasks, showcasing the versatility of automation [3][5] - The concept of "无人公司" (unmanned companies) is introduced, where AI-driven systems manage operations without direct human intervention, leading to efficient and cost-effective business models [5][6] Group 2: Economic Implications of AI - AI is seen as a disruptor of traditional economic structures, potentially leading to a new class of "useless people" whose economic value diminishes in the face of automation [6][9] - The article discusses the need for a new economic model that prioritizes wealth distribution and human dignity over traditional employment, suggesting concepts like Universal Basic Income (UBI) as potential solutions [9][10] - The narrative emphasizes the importance of redefining the meaning of work and existence in an AI-driven future, where creativity and personal fulfillment take precedence over conventional job roles [10][11] Group 3: Future Perspectives - The article presents a dichotomy between two potential futures: one where AI leads to a controlled, consumerist society, and another where it fosters freedom and dignity for all individuals [11][12] - The discussion highlights the necessity for a cultural shift to match the technological advancements brought by AI, advocating for trust, connection, and harmony in society [11][12] - Ultimately, the potential of AI to create abundance is juxtaposed with the risk of societal disconnection, emphasizing the need for collective action to harness this technology for the greater good [12][13]

Group 1 - The core motivation behind Musk's establishment of the "American Party" is his opposition to both major political parties' agendas [2][5][10] - Musk criticizes the Democratic Party for its "woke culture," increasing leftist policies, and stringent tech regulations, which he believes hinder innovation [3][4] - Although the Republican Party aligns more with Musk's preferences on tax cuts and market freedom, he disagrees with their stance on key issues, leading to a split over the "Big and Beautiful" bill [4][10] Group 2 - The "American Party" aims to secure a few seats in Congress rather than becoming a ruling party, leveraging its position to influence legislation when the two major parties are closely matched [17][18][22] - The challenges for third parties in the U.S. stem from the electoral system, voter psychology, and resource inequality, making it difficult for them to gain traction [11][24][25] - Musk's status as a billionaire and a prominent public figure may provide a unique opportunity to overcome traditional barriers faced by third parties [27][28] Group 3 - The emergence of AI and its potential societal impacts may necessitate a new political structure, which Musk appears to be preparing for with the "American Party" [30][31][44] - The future may see a return to a form of "medieval" wealth distribution, where the wealthy have responsibilities akin to feudal lords, potentially leading to a new social order [36][40][41] - Discussions around Universal Basic Income (UBI) are gaining traction, with Musk engaging with figures like Andrew Yang, indicating a possible alignment with future economic models [43][45]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing AI with curiosity and optimism rather than fear, suggesting that AI will enhance human creativity and productivity rather than replace jobs [3][4] - It highlights the necessity for individuals to adapt and learn new skills, particularly in programming and social skills, to thrive in an AI-driven future [5][6] - The discussion includes the potential for new entrepreneurial opportunities in the AI space, predicting the emergence of new tech giants in the next 5 to 10 years [11][12] AI Integration and Future Work - AI tools are expected to become ubiquitous, with every engineer using at least one co-pilot agent by 2025, marking a new standard in professional development [8] - The article suggests that while AI will automate many tasks, human creativity and social skills will remain crucial for success [5][6] - There is skepticism about the feasibility of universal basic income (UBI) due to inherent human competition and the physical limitations of producing all necessary goods [9][10] Entrepreneurial Opportunities - The article posits that there will be significant opportunities for startups to create new companies that could rival existing tech giants, provided they find unique, technology-enabled paths [11][12] - It encourages entrepreneurs to focus on underexplored sectors where AI can create unique value, rather than trying to replicate existing successful companies [13][14] - The healthcare and education sectors are highlighted as areas ripe for transformation through AI, with potential for improved efficiency and personalized experiences [15] Skills for the AI Era - The article stresses the importance of programming skills and creative thinking, suggesting that early adopters of AI tools will have a competitive advantage [5][6] - It advocates for a balance between technical skills and social skills, emphasizing that understanding human insights will be key in leveraging AI effectively [12][13] - The need for a foundational understanding of mathematics and logical reasoning is acknowledged, even as tools like calculators and AI become prevalent [6]

"我一点也不担心超级 AI，我担心的是愚蠢 AI。" 文丨曾梦龙 编辑丨钱杨 黄俊杰 10 月 14 日，达龙·阿西莫格鲁（Daron Acemoglu）在希腊雅典一家酒店的阳台上，接到了诺贝尔奖委员会的电话。"人们很早就说过你会获奖，你一定想到了 这一刻的到来。" 工作人员说。 阿西莫格鲁近年来一直是诺奖热门人选。对熟悉经济学的人来说，他得奖并不让人意外。他和合作者西蒙·约翰逊（Simon Johnson）、詹姆斯·A. 罗宾逊 （James A. Robinson）因对 "制度如何形成并影响繁荣" 的研究共享 2024 年诺贝尔经济学奖。 阿西莫格鲁回答，"你可以做梦，但永远不会想到它会发生。这是一件美妙的事情。" 获奖前的一两年里，阿西莫格鲁的名字频繁与 "AI" 一同出现在新闻标题里。阿西莫格鲁认为现在整个行业陷入 "通用人工智能"（AGI）的竞赛，希望利用这 项技术实现自动化、创造数字广告收入的发展方向错了，疯狂买入英伟达显卡只是在浪费钱。他的观点影响了高盛在今年 6 月的报告《通用 AI：花得太多； 收益太小？》（GEN AI: Too Much Spend Too Little Benefit? ...