点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 市场核心观点： 12月A股实现震荡上行，主要宽基指数量能稳步提升。交易情绪方面，主要宽基指数期权及宽基ETF期权 持仓量PCR震荡回落，反映市场交易情绪逐步乐观。资金面方面，股票型ETF资金实现净流入，融资净买 入额震荡回升，资金表现积极。大类因子方面，从12月各周度滚动观察，基本面大类因子表现占优，市场 或已实现由交易类因子占优向基本面类因子占优过渡。 年末情绪面、资金面的积极表现或为市场"开门红"奠定基础。风格方面，基本面因子占优格局或延续。中 长线持续看好"红利+科技"配置主线。 市场情绪追踪： 截至2025年12月31日，沪深300上涨家数占比指标最近一个月环比上月小幅上升，上涨家数占比指标高于 60%，市场情绪升温； ...

Market Sentiment Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 has slightly decreased month-on-month, remaining above 50%, indicating a cooling market sentiment [4] - The momentum sentiment indicators show a downward trend, with the fast line below the slow line, suggesting a cautious outlook in the near term [4] - The short-term CSI 300 index is in a non-prosperous sentiment zone [4] Fund Separation Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the degree of fund separation has slightly declined, indicating a strengthening of fund clustering [5] - The excess returns of clustered stocks and funds have seen a slight decrease over the past month [5] PB-ROE-50 Strategy Tracking - In November 2025, the PB-ROE-50 strategy yielded negative excess returns across various stock pools [6] - The excess return for the CSI 500 stock pool was -0.08%, for the CSI 800 stock pool was -1.09%, and for the overall market stock pool was -3.26% [6] Institutional Research Strategy Tracking - In November 2025, the public fund research stock selection strategy achieved positive excess returns [7] - This strategy outperformed the CSI 800 by 3.49%, while the private fund research tracking strategy underperformed by -1.36% [7] Negative List - As of November 28, 2025, several stocks with high interest-bearing debt ratios, such as Guiding Compass and Huaying Technology, ranked below 100 in traditional metrics [8] - Stocks with high financial cost burdens include Langjin Technology and Delixi Shares, with metrics exceeding 10 times [8]

- The "Market Sentiment Tracking" system includes the "Proportion of Rising Stocks Sentiment Indicator," which calculates the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the past N days within the CSI 300 Index. This indicator helps identify market sentiment by detecting market bottoms when the proportion increases and potential overheating when the proportion is high. However, it has limitations in avoiding market downturns and may miss gains during sustained market rallies[12][13][15] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Timing Strategy" applies two smoothing windows (N1=50, N2=35) to the sentiment indicator. When the short-term smoothed line exceeds the long-term smoothed line, it signals a bullish market view. Conversely, when the short-term line falls below the long-term line, it indicates a cautious market outlook[13][15][16] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" uses an eight-moving-average system (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess the CSI 300 Index's trend. The indicator assigns values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the moving average range, correlating with the index's performance. A bullish signal is generated when the current price exceeds the moving average values for more than five of the eight averages[21][26] - The "PB-ROE-50 Strategy" is based on the PB-ROE pricing model and incorporates factors like SUE and ROE growth to identify stocks with expectation gaps. The strategy selects 50 stocks to form a portfolio, aiming to enhance returns by leveraging expectation differences and additional alpha factors[30][33][34] - The "Institutional Research Strategy" includes "Public Fund Research Stock Selection" and "Private Fund Research Tracking." These strategies utilize institutional research data, such as the number of times a company is researched and its pre-research performance relative to benchmarks, to identify alpha opportunities[37][39][40] - The "Leverage Ratio Negative List" introduces three leverage ratio metrics: traditional, strict, and relaxed. The relaxed leverage ratio includes additional liabilities like other current liabilities and non-current liabilities due within one year, providing more opportunities for short-selling gains compared to traditional metrics[42][43][45] - The "Financial Cost Burden Ratio" measures a company's interest payment pressure using the formula: Financial Cost Burden Ratio = Interest Expense / EBIT. This metric focuses on interest expenses post-2018, offering a clearer view of financial costs and identifying companies with high repayment pressure[46][47][48] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Sentiment Indicator" showed a slight month-on-month decline as of November 28, 2025, with a value above 50%, indicating cooling market sentiment[12] - The "Proportion of Rising Stocks Timing Strategy" indicated a cautious market view as the short-term smoothed line was below the long-term smoothed line in the past month[16] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" suggested the CSI 300 Index was in a non-prosperous sentiment zone as of November 28, 2025[21] - The "PB-ROE-50 Strategy" delivered negative excess returns in November 2025: -0.08% for the CSI 500 pool, -1.09% for the CSI 800 pool, and -3.26% for the entire market pool[30][34] - The "Institutional Research Strategy" showed mixed results in November 2025: the "Public Fund Research Stock Selection" achieved a 3.49% excess return relative to the CSI 800, while the "Private Fund Research Tracking" recorded a -1.36% excess return relative to the CSI 800[37][39]

- The "PB-ROE-50" strategy is based on the idea of identifying market expectation gaps and enhancing portfolio returns by incorporating surprise factors such as SUE and ROE year-on-year growth. It selects 50 stocks to construct the portfolio using the PB-ROE pricing model derived from Wilcox (1984)[29][33][36] - The "PB-ROE-50" strategy achieved positive excess returns in August 2025 for the CSI 800 and the entire market stock pools, with excess returns of 5.22% and 7.61%, respectively. However, it recorded a negative excess return of -0.54% for the CSI 500 stock pool[29][33][36] - The "Upward Count Proportion Sentiment Indicator" calculates the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over the past N days. It is used to gauge market sentiment, with higher proportions indicating optimistic sentiment. The formula is: CSI 300 Index N-day Upward Count Proportion = Number of CSI 300 Index constituent stocks with returns > 0 in the past N days / Total number of constituent stocks[12][13][15] - The "Upward Count Proportion Sentiment Indicator" is smoothed using two different window periods (N1=50, N2=35) to generate fast and slow lines. When the fast line exceeds the slow line, it signals a bullish market sentiment[13][15][16] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" uses eight moving averages (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess the sentiment state of the CSI 300 index. The indicator assigns values based on the range of the moving averages, with values of -1, 0, or 1 corresponding to different sentiment states[19][24][23] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" signals a bullish sentiment when the current price exceeds the values of more than five moving averages[19][24][23] - The "Fund Concentration Degree Tracking" uses the standard deviation of cross-sectional returns of concentrated fund portfolios as a proxy for fund concentration. Lower standard deviation indicates higher concentration, while higher standard deviation suggests concentration is breaking down[25][28][26] - The "Institutional Research Strategy" includes public fund research stock selection and private fund research tracking strategies. It selects stocks based on the number of times a company is researched and its relative performance before the research. In August 2025, the public fund strategy recorded an excess return of -1.33%, while the private fund strategy recorded -5.05%[37][39][40] - The "Relaxed Interest-Bearing Debt Ratio" is calculated as: (Short-term loans + Interest payable + Transactional financial liabilities + Payable short-term bonds + Lease liabilities + Long-term loans + Payable bonds + Long-term payables + Other current liabilities + Liabilities classified as held-for-sale + Non-current liabilities due within one year) / Total assets. It is used to identify stocks with high liquidity risk[42][43][45] - The "Financial Cost Burden Ratio" is calculated as: Financial expenses: Interest expenses / Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT). It measures the pressure companies face in paying interest costs. Stocks with high ratios are flagged for potential financial risk[46][47][48]

Market Sentiment Tracking - As of February 28, 2025, the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 index has decreased to below 60%, indicating a decline in market sentiment [2] - The momentum sentiment indicators show a downward trend in the short-term line and an upward trend in the long-term line, suggesting a cautious outlook for the near future [2] - The short-term sentiment indicators for the CSI 300 index remain in a prosperous sentiment range [2] Fund Cohesion Tracking - As of February 28, 2025, the degree of fund cohesion remains low, with a high level of fund clustering observed [3] - There has been a slight decline in the excess returns of clustered stocks and funds over the past month [3] PB-ROE-50 Strategy Tracking - In February 2025, the PB-ROE-50 strategy experienced a pullback in excess returns across various stock pools [4] - The excess return for the CSI 500 stock pool was -3.34%, for the CSI 800 stock pool was -5.32%, and for the overall market stock pool was -2.54% [4] Institutional Research Strategy Tracking - The private equity research tracking strategy showed significant excess returns in February [5] - The public fund research selection strategy underperformed the CSI 800 with an excess return of -0.57%, while the private equity research tracking strategy outperformed with an excess return of 2.88% [5] Negative List - As of February 28, 2025, several stocks with high interest-bearing debt ratios ranked poorly, including Zhongyida, Guiding Compass, and others, with rankings of 100 or lower [6] - Stocks with high financial cost burden ratios include Ningbo Fangzheng, Ganfeng Lithium, and others, all with ratios exceeding 10 times [6]