Consumer Products - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to October 2025 are -0.4%, -6%, and 37% respectively, with October 2025 showing declines of -17%, -16%, and -15% year-on-year [4] - The decline in export growth is attributed to high base effects and calendar effects, with one less working day in October 2025 compared to October 2024, leading to adjusted year-on-year growth rates of -12%, -11%, and -11% when calculated on a daily average basis [4] Capital Goods - The export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, industrial sewing machines, and mining machinery in October are -13%, -4%, -10%, and 1% respectively, showing significant declines compared to September [5] - Cumulative growth rates from January to October 2025 for these categories are 0%, 13%, 13%, and 21%, with a decrease of 2-3 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [5] - The decline in export growth is also linked to high base effects and calendar effects, with adjusted daily average growth rates for October being -8%, 2%, -5%, and 6% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical industry [1] Core Views - The mechanical export data for October is affected by high year-on-year bases and calendar effects, leading to a significant decline in export growth rates for various products [3][4] - The export amounts for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America have shown a continuous decline, with electric tools experiencing a six-month consecutive drop [4][7] - Emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are driving growth in capital goods exports, particularly for forklifts and industrial sewing machines [5][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Goods - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to October 2025 are -0.4%, -6%, and 37% respectively, with October showing declines of -17%, -16%, and -15% [3] - Exports to North America for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers have seen year-to-date declines of -19%, -9%, and -9% respectively [4] - Companies such as QuanFeng Holdings, JuXing Technology, and Greebo are recommended for investment focus [7] Capital Goods - Forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines have varying export markets, with Asia being the largest for industrial sewing machines [5] - The cumulative export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, industrial sewing machines, and mining machinery from January to October 2025 are 0%, 13%, 13%, and 21% respectively [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Jack Group for potential investments in industrial capital goods [8] Mining Machinery - The cumulative export growth rate for mining machinery is 21% from January to October 2025, indicating a positive outlook for global mining capital expenditures [8]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continued cooling trend in U.S. exports, while machine tools and engineering machinery exports show marginally positive performance [1] - Exports of electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America are under pressure due to tariff impacts, with significant declines noted in 2025 [2][7] - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Latin America, are driving growth in forklift and industrial sewing machine exports [5][8] Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - Electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers primarily target high-end markets in Europe and the U.S. [2] - From January to September 2025, the export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 1%, -4%, and 43% respectively, with significant declines in exports to North America [2] - Lawn mower exports to Europe accounted for 71% of total exports in the first nine months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines are mainly exported to Asia, with a 67% share in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - Forklifts and machine tools also show strong export performance, particularly in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, with respective shares of 34%, 29%, and 16% for forklifts [4] - Engineering machinery exports grew by 16% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, with Africa showing the fastest growth at 59% [4][5] Engineering Machinery - Exports of major engineering machinery categories, including excavators and tractors, maintained double-digit growth rates in 2025 [6][8] - Excavators and tractors saw year-on-year growth rates of 27% and 32% respectively in the first nine months of 2025 [8] - The report suggests a positive outlook for global mining capital expenditure, recommending attention to specific companies in this sector [8]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - In July, there was a marginal improvement in the export of certain consumer goods to North America, while the export of engineering machinery remains robust [1] - The U.S. retail sales growth rate for July was +0.5%, indicating a decline in consumer spending willingness [3] - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers in the first seven months of 2025 were 3%, -5%, and 47% respectively [4] - The engineering machinery sector saw a cumulative export growth of 13% in the first seven months of 2025, with significant growth in excavators and tractors [5][8] Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - The main products include electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers, primarily targeting high-end consumers in Europe and the U.S. [3] - The cumulative export amounts to North America for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers showed declines of -10%, -5%, and -2% respectively in the first seven months of 2025 [4] - Recommendations include companies such as QuanFeng Holdings, JuXing Technology, and Greebo [9] Capital Goods - Industrial - Key products include forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines, with a slight decline in global manufacturing PMI to 49.3% [9] - The cumulative export growth for forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines in the first seven months of 2025 was 0%, +14%, and +17% respectively [7] - Companies to watch include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Neway CNC [9] Capital Goods - Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector, including excavators, tractors, and mining machinery, maintained double-digit cumulative export growth in the first seven months of 2025 [10] - The cumulative export growth rates for excavators, tractors, and mining machinery were 24%, 30%, and 25% respectively [8] - Recommended companies include Xugong Machinery, Sany Heavy Industry, and LiuGong [10]