智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，银行中期分红时间点临近，临近年底若市场风格趋于均衡， 板块有补涨机会。该行预计上市银行2025年前三季度累计营收及归母净利润分别同比增长0.4%、 1.1%，增速较中报-0.6pct、+0.3pct。主要得益于息差同比降幅收窄和减值计提下降让渡空间，但债市宽 幅震荡拖累其他非息收入不确定性上升，个股投资收益表现取决于银行跨期摆布策略选择(至25Q2末上 市银行OCI浮盈达1871亿元，相当于2024年归母净利润的8.5%，AC账户浮盈或更丰厚)。板块内城商行 业绩增速有望保持领先，国有行营收同比正增承压，但净利润增速大概率转正。 营收端，利息净收入和手续费及佣金净收入有望延续年初以来改善态势、同比增速较中报进一步回升， 但其他非息收入受债市波动和高基数拖累，单季同比负增幅度或超两位数、拖曳前三季度累计营收增速 微正。 利息净收入方面，生息资产同比增速25Q2冲高后回落，该行预计较中报下降0.6pct至9.2%；25Q3金融机 构新增人民币贷款18,300亿元、同比少增9,200亿元，上市银行难以独善其身，预计25Q3同比增速较中 报放缓0.3pct至7.8%。但三季报净 ...

Group 1 - The sentiment and holding heat for dividend assets are expected to warm up, indicating potential for valuation recovery and capital inflow [6] - The coal sector is experiencing a strong price increase, driven by supply constraints due to overproduction checks, leading to heightened expectations for a rebound in the sector [6] - The dividend yield rankings show that the white goods sector leads with a yield of 5.11%, followed by joint-stock banks at 4.83% and coal mining at 4.81% [7] Group 2 - The ChiNext and CSI Dividend Index have seen a widening "scissors difference" in forward valuation factors, now exceeding two standard deviations, suggesting a potential for recovery [6] - The performance of the Huabao Dividend Family Index over the past month shows a positive trend, with a notable increase in returns [7] - The dividend yield data for various ETFs indicates a focus on high dividend elasticity and stable dividend-paying stocks, with specific ETFs targeting low volatility and cash flow [10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with technology remaining the main focus, but there is a high-low switch within the sector [1][2] Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a significant slowdown since September, but opportunities in low-position sectors are emerging, which is beneficial for maintaining a long-term slow bull market [1] - After a brief correction in early September, the market has returned to an upward trend, although the pace of growth has slowed compared to August [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous high of 3731 points from 2021, indicating a potential for other lagging indices like CSI 300 and ChiNext to catch up [2] Sector Analysis - In September, the technology sector may experience some differentiation, with low-position sectors like robotics, new energy, and military industry expected to see a rebound [3] - The trend towards domestic production of semiconductors continues, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3] - The military sector is anticipated to see a recovery in orders by 2025, with many sub-sectors showing signs of bottoming out in their mid-year performance [3] - The innovative drug sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2025 [3] - The banking sector is witnessing a rebound in mid-year performance growth after the impact of loan rate re-pricing, making it attractive to long-term institutional investors [3] Market Performance - The market has shown a narrow range of fluctuations, with the robotics sector leading the gains, replacing computing hardware as the top-performing segment [4] - The technology growth indices like STAR Market and ChiNext continue to lead the market, with over 3600 stocks rising on the day [4] - Leading sectors include computers, machinery, retail, automotive, and textiles, while lagging sectors include agriculture, banking, non-ferrous metals, military, and food and beverage [4]