2026.02.25 本文字数：2600，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 黄思瑜 春节前大幅离场后，A股节后的资金回流态势已成为市场关注焦点。 两融资金在春节前大幅净流出后，节后首个交易日大幅回流了346亿元，其中融资资金回流了338.89亿 元。杠杆资金的持仓偏好，春节前后也截然相反，此前大笔净卖出的行业在节后被大笔净买入。在业内 看来，回流方向与市场热点不尽相同，反映融资资金还是偏好科技类弹性品种。 不同于融资资金大幅回流，主力资金在近两个交易日仍旧连续净流出，从高位题材转向顺周期涨价板 块。 在多位券商分析师看来，节后短期流动性可能继续宽松，股市资金可能加速回流，节后居民储蓄存款搬 家、"固收+"资金入市、理财资金入市等多重因素或利好A股。 杠杆资金单日回流346亿元 春节前最后一个交易日（2月13日），两融资金单日缩水574.77亿元，其中融资资金净流出569.58亿元， 成为2025年以来净流出金额最大的一天。当周（2月9日～2月13日），两融资金净流出755.35亿元，其 中融资金额净流出746.66亿元，创2025年4月以来新高。 春节后，两融资金的回流情况备受市场关注。根据Wind数据， ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that if the Bank of Japan continues its gradual interest rate hike path leveraging the recent strength of the yen, the rebound of the yen post-election may face risks [1] Group 1: Yen Outlook - Despite the potential continuation of the yen's upward momentum in the coming weeks, the current rally may be considered excessive and rapid [1] - If the Bank of Japan utilizes the recent yen strength to maintain a more gradual rate hike, the yen could revert to a depreciation trend, and the long-term government bond yield curve may experience volatility [1] Group 2: Capital Flows and Dollar Dynamics - The likelihood of significant capital repatriation to Japan in the short term remains low, as data indicates that a narrower interest rate differential or a steeper Japanese government bond yield curve is required to trigger such flows [1] - The dollar may continue to be pressured by multiple factors, including instability in U.S. policy-making, sell-offs in technology stocks weakening U.S. equity performance, and unique situations in the Asian region, collectively driving the dollar weaker [1] - This situation is particularly important for investors focused on dollar valuation and betting on a weaker dollar, as the current overvaluation of the dollar is entirely attributed to the relative performance of Asian currencies [1]

Group 1 - South Korean retail investors are preparing to return to the domestic stock market with a record amount of funds, aiming to chase returns in one of the hottest markets globally [1] - The available funds for stock purchases reached a historical high of 111 trillion KRW (approximately 77 billion USD), indicating a shift in investment direction among retail investors [1] - The Korean benchmark Kospi index has surged 31% year-to-date, outperforming global indices, with local institutions being the largest net buyers in this rally [1] Group 2 - President Lee Jae-myung is focusing on boosting stock market valuations and encouraging local retail investors, known as the "ant army," to shift funds from real estate and overseas markets to domestic stocks [2] - The number of active stock trading accounts in South Korea has surpassed 100 million for the first time, reflecting the effectiveness of promotional efforts by brokerages [2] - The introduction of the "Reshoring Investment Account" policy allows investors to receive up to 100% capital gains tax exemption if they reinvest profits from overseas stocks into the domestic market [2] Group 3 - South Korean regulators are preparing to approve single-stock ETFs to attract retail investors seeking leveraged returns, with a leverage cap set at two times [3] - The most favored stocks among retail investors include Hyundai Motor, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics, benefiting from strong corporate earnings driven by the AI boom [3] - The Korean market is experiencing a revival due to government-led initiatives and robust earnings in sectors like semiconductors, meeting investor expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver futures prices experienced a significant rebound after a period of decline, with gold prices rising above $4900 per ounce and silver prices surpassing $87 per ounce, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary reason for the rebound is identified as a "super dip rebound," following a substantial decline where New York gold saw a maximum pullback of 21.28% and New York silver a maximum pullback of 40.59%, leading to an oversold technical condition [1]. - The reduction in passive liquidation pressure due to previous CME margin increases has allowed for a resurgence of bottom-fishing capital and short covering, resulting in a 45% increase in COMEX gold trading volume and a 62% increase in silver trading volume [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The short-term support for precious metals remains unchanged, with the People's Bank of China increasing gold reserves for 14 consecutive months and global central banks averaging 70 tons of gold purchases monthly, highlighting the growing monetary attributes of precious metals amid de-dollarization [2]. - A projected supply-demand gap of 320 tons for gold in 2026 and an 8% annual growth rate in industrial silver demand, contrasted with a mere 2% increase in mineral supply, indicates a long-term supply shortage [2]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the return of funds to safe-haven assets further support gold and silver prices [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - In February, the primary precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with gold between $4500 and $5100 per ounce and silver between $70 and $85 per ounce, while a gradual upward trend is anticipated in the medium term [3]. - Investors are advised to manage their positions cautiously as the market approaches the Chinese New Year, with recommendations to wait for market stabilization post-holiday before increasing allocations [3].

Group 1 - Michael Burry, the protagonist of the movie "The Big Short," indicates that the reversal of the yen's trend is long overdue, raising concerns about its potential impact on U.S. stock performance due to recent Fed scrutiny on the yen [1][2] - The New York Fed has reached out to potential trading counterparts regarding the yen's exchange rate against the dollar, coinciding with warnings from Japanese officials about the yen's weakness and potential intervention actions [1] - The dollar-yen exchange rate peaked at 159 last Friday but fell below 154 on Monday, reflecting volatility in the currency market [1] Group 2 - Burry warns that the return of Japanese capital, driven by higher interest rates, could signal a significant shift in capital flows, which U.S. investors should monitor closely [2] - He argues that the combination of rising interest rates in Japan and falling rates in the U.S. will negatively affect both U.S. stocks and bonds, contrasting with the previous environment that supported their growth [3] - Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley notes that most investors in Japan believe the dollar-yen exchange rate should return to the 140-145 range, suggesting that short-term volatility from yen appreciation could lead to long-term gains in the Japanese stock market [4] Group 3 - The S&P 500 index closed at 6915 points last Friday, marking its second consecutive week of decline [5]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market experienced a strong recovery in 2025, with 119 new companies listed, marking a significant increase in fundraising and a resurgence in investor interest [3][20] - The total amount raised reached nearly HKD 290 billion, a year-on-year increase of 224%, reclaiming the top position globally for IPO financing [4][20] - A notable 24 new stocks saw their prices double, highlighting a robust "money-making effect" for investors [4][20] Key Data Highlights - In 2025, 119 companies successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, representing a growth of over 60% compared to previous years [4][14] - The number of companies with stock price increases exceeding 100% accounted for over 20% of the new listings, significantly surpassing the average of the past five years [4][15] - Exceptional cases included the listing of Jinye International Group, which achieved a subscription rate of 11,465 times, and Miexue Group, which raised HKD 1.84 trillion in frozen capital, becoming the "frozen capital king" of Hong Kong IPOs [4][15] Market Dynamics - The recovery of the IPO market was driven by multiple factors, including policy incentives, capital inflows, and industry developments [6][16] - The introduction of the "Science and Technology Enterprise Special Line" in May 2025 improved the listing efficiency for innovative companies, while the IPO pricing mechanism reform in August reduced the new stock failure rate to 28.83%, the lowest in five years [6][16] - The influx of 19 A-share companies into the Hong Kong market raised nearly HKD 140 billion, accounting for almost half of the total IPO amount for the year [6][16] Capital Flow and Investor Behavior - 2025 saw a significant increase in southbound capital inflows, providing strong support for the new stock market [7][17] - Foreign capital also returned, with major investment institutions participating in cornerstone subscriptions, doubling their investment amounts compared to the previous year [7][17] - Despite the overall positive performance, signs of market differentiation emerged in the fourth quarter, with an increase in the failure rate of new stocks, prompting a shift in investor strategy towards selective targeting of quality stocks [8][18] Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for the Hong Kong IPO market in 2026 remains optimistic, with over 300 listing applications already submitted, indicating a robust supply of new stocks [8][19] - Predictions suggest around 160 new listings in 2026, with total fundraising expected to reach at least HKD 300 billion, and some estimates going as high as HKD 330 billion [8][19] - High-tech, biomedicine, and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to dominate new listings, reinforcing Hong Kong's position as a gateway for investment in Chinese assets and high-tech industries [8][19]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are expected to become favored by Wall Street by early 2026, with asset management firms betting on a prolonged inflow cycle that has already begun [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Capital inflows into emerging markets this year have reached the best performance since 2009, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards this previously underperforming asset class [1] - Emerging market stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017, and the yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to the lowest level in 11 years [1] - JPMorgan forecasts that emerging market bond funds could see inflows of up to $50 billion next year, with expectations of price appreciation and yield benefits from local currency bonds [4] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent investment conference by Bank of America revealed that nearly all investors are optimistic about emerging markets, with no significant pessimism reported [3] - AllianceBernstein's Sammy Suzuki noted a shift in perception, stating that questions about the investment value of emerging markets have diminished [3] - Gama Asset Management's Rajeev De Mello believes there is still room for significant over-allocation towards emerging markets [5] Group 3: Global Capital Flows - There is a potential fundamental shift in global capital flows, with portfolio managers eager to diversify away from the U.S. and attracted by progress in debt reduction and inflation control in developing countries [3] - Despite recent rebounds, the overall scale of capital inflows remains relatively small compared to previous outflows, indicating that emerging markets still have insufficient representation in global portfolios [4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The recent rebound in emerging markets may mask underlying vulnerabilities, particularly concerning the U.S. dollar, which has declined by 8% this year, providing support for emerging market assets [6] - Citigroup suggests that investors should only buy emerging market assets that can withstand a potential strengthening of the dollar [6] - As of mid-December, emerging market bond funds saw a significant inflow of $4 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow since July [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate hike, raising the rate to 0.75%, marking the highest level since 1995, which could trigger significant global market impacts [1][2]. Group 1 - The era of cheap yen is coming to an end, as global investors have borrowed over $1 trillion in yen at near-zero costs to invest in high-yield assets like U.S. Treasuries and stocks. The rate hike will significantly increase the cost of these trades, potentially leading to a "liquidation" scenario [4]. - Japanese investors are the largest overseas holders of U.S. Treasuries, with approximately $1.2 trillion in holdings. As Japanese bond yields become more attractive, there is a risk of substantial capital returning to Japan, raising concerns about demand for U.S. Treasuries on Wall Street [4]. - The market has largely priced in this rate hike, with a 94% probability of its occurrence. The real market impact will depend on comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding future rate hikes, which could amplify or mitigate the market's reaction [4].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected signal from the Bank of Japan regarding a potential interest rate hike has disrupted market expectations, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and prompting investors to reassess global capital flow risks [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested a possible interest rate hike later this month, surprising investors who anticipated a more cautious approach due to economic stimulus pressures from the new Prime Minister [1]. - Following Ueda's remarks, global government bond markets experienced a sell-off, with Japan's 10-year bond yield rising to 1.879%, the highest closing level since June 2008 [1]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also increased, rebounding from below 4% to 4.095% [1]. Group 2: Implications for U.S. Markets - Concerns on Wall Street center around the rising Japanese bond yields potentially attracting funds away from U.S. investments, which could lead to increased U.S. Treasury yields [5]. - The U.S. Treasury market is particularly sensitive to changes in Japanese monetary policy due to Japan being the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, with approximately $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities as of September [6]. - Analysts warn that a shift in Japanese bond yields could reduce demand for U.S. Treasuries, thereby pushing their yields higher [6]. Group 3: Diverging Monetary Policies - The divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. and Japan has become more pronounced this year, with the Federal Reserve adopting a more accommodative stance due to a cooling labor market, while the Bank of Japan is gradually tightening its policy in response to persistent inflation [7]. - The Bank of Japan's recent actions include raising interest rates from negative territory and increasing government bond issuance to fund economic stimulus, contributing to upward pressure on bond yields [7]. Group 4: Stock Market Impact - The potential for a rate hike in Japan has also affected U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 index falling by 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 0.9% (approximately 427 points), and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 0.4% [8]. - Despite the recent pullback, some investors view this as a healthy correction after months of stable gains, with the S&P 500 still up 16% year-to-date [9].

Core Insights - The U.S. has accumulated a significant debt burden, with national debt reaching $38 trillion, over 124% of GDP, a nearly fivefold increase since 2003 [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy has been aimed at combating inflation, but recent economic data suggests a shift towards interest rate cuts to stimulate growth [5][7] - The return of capital from Chinese enterprises, estimated to be between $1 trillion and $1.3 trillion, is expected to strengthen the yuan against the dollar, with a potential appreciation of up to 10% [7][11] Debt Dynamics - U.S. national debt has surged due to government stimulus measures, with foreign ownership dropping to less than 25% [4] - The debt growth rate has accelerated from an average of 10% to over 20% annually from 2022 to 2025 [2][13] - The burden of debt is increasingly falling on domestic institutions and households, with each American carrying nearly $110,000 in debt [13] Economic Policy Shifts - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the federal funds rate dropping to 3.75%-4.00% by late October 2025, are a response to weak employment data and persistent inflation [5][7] - The shift in monetary policy is expected to lead to a capital outflow from the U.S. as borrowing costs decrease, redirecting funds to higher-return regions [9][15] Capital Reallocation - Chinese enterprises have accumulated over $2 trillion in overseas dollar assets, primarily in bonds and equities, with a projected return of these assets to China [9][11] - The reallocation process involves selling short-term bonds and shifting equity investments back to domestic or Hong Kong markets, with a completion target by 2026 [9][11] Currency and Trade Implications - The depreciation of the dollar, with an 8% drop in the dollar index, is expected to enhance the return on investments in China, facilitating capital repatriation [11][15] - The internationalization of the yuan is projected to increase, with its share in global payments rising from 2% in 2020 to 4% by 2025 [15][22] Infrastructure and Economic Growth - The return of capital is anticipated to boost investments in key sectors such as semiconductors and renewable energy, with semiconductor global market share expected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 25% by 2025 [11][15] - Infrastructure projects, including high-speed rail expansion from 38,000 km in 2020 to 45,000 km by 2025, will benefit from this capital influx [19][20]