2025 年 08 月 23 日 让子弹飞，还是已超涨？ 本期要点：让子弹飞，还是已超涨？ 上期我们提到，市场短期并没有结束迹象，但不妨未雨绸缪思考在什 么情况下市场可能会存在一定的调整风险。事后来看，市场的上涨节 奏和幅度远超预期，尤其是科创 50 出现了加速上涨的迹象。 上期提到监控牛市是否可能出现较大级别调整的两个观察视角，是否 是五浪上涨以及是否股债收益差已经来到了 2 倍标准差附近，目前 来看应该大部分宽基指数没有触发预警条件。 但上周涨幅较快，尤其是周五的上涨并没有出现进一步放量迹象，由 此有必要新增讨论当前是不是出现了一定的超涨迹象。基于我们的择 时系统，从趋势指标看，当前趋势明显很强；从低频温度计和超低频 温度计这两个刻画超涨超跌的指标看，目前或仍未上穿到风险阈值之 上。但从这两个指标的计算规则看，如果下周再度保持类似的上涨势 头，或有望触发短期超涨阈值。 基于模型规则，未来一旦市场进入超涨状态，那么随后再出现风险提 示信号时，哪怕认为仍然处于较大级别的上行趋势中，但也有必要战 术性做一些防守应对措施了。 板块上，上周 TMT 方向的拥挤度有所上升，成交金额占比在 34%左右， 离近两年的高点 ...

回顾本周行情，沪指势如破竹，已经站上3800点整数关口，其他指数也在跟随沪指屡创阶段新高，A股市值也突破了100万亿。大家对后市的热情度逐步 提高，只不过上涨速度有点快，盘面上出现高低切换的迹象，高位股出现了持续性的下挫，但两市成交量天天在2万亿以上，即便出现了筹码松动，上升 趋势也未出现改变，这段时间，市场慢牛的共识已经形成。 带着这些问题，我们邀请到两位重磅嘉宾：一位是深圳优品投资顾问-张凯程老师；另外一位是 资深投资人-周涛；他们将为大家总结本周行情，判断后市 走势，把握市场机会。 8月24日晚22:22在《河南卫视》播出，敬请收看。 本周成交额，每日都在2万亿以上，8月18日两市成交更是达到了2.76万亿，我们常说，有量有行情，现在看普通投资者开户数据暴增、两市融资余额持续 在2万亿以上，这些都在表明有增量资金，在持续入场。不过市场资金的高低切换非常明显，本周8月18日至21日数据显示，调整后的银行、低位的白酒、 饮料制造、石油加工等方向最为吸金。最近涨幅比较大的军工，汽车零部件，化学制药等等方向资金流出最多。当然，高低切换，不是一朝一夕能够完成 的，希望通过这样的切换，市场走的更健康一些。 指数在突 ...

导语："投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目，希望通过每周日不定期的推送，让更多人看到基金经 理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主，不带有基金产品的代码和信息， 也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。也欢迎大家给我们投稿：azhu830@yeah.net！ 近期市场热点多聚焦于"反内卷"与基建板块，但科技主线作为长期政策支持的核心方向，其产业叙事仍 在持续强化。AI、机器人等前沿科技领域进展不断，技术突破与产业落地预期支撑下，科技板块的配 置价值依然坚实。 长城科技投资领域的基金经理们将努力挖掘科技创新浪潮下的投资机遇，力争做好"有时代感的投资"， 陪伴投资者向"新"而行。 廖瀚博：关注高低切机会 展望后市，我们认为短期内市场或由上行转向震荡行情，将关注高低切换的机会，需要重视低位板块/ 个股的基本面变化或者预期变化。 陈良栋：挖掘AI细分支线机会 储雯玉：关注计算机、传媒、半导体等 赵凤飞：关注AI应用落地进展 由于前一段时间市场情绪较好，很多板块涨幅较大，叠加关税政策不确定因素，短期内市场可能会有所 调整。 当前重点关注AI应用方向，以及其它一些潜在机会。比如，科创板中与固态电池相关的方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing strength and investment opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, despite short-term market fluctuations and the focus on "anti-involution" and infrastructure sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is expected to shift from an upward trend to a more volatile phase, with a focus on high-low switching opportunities and the fundamental changes in low-position sectors or stocks [3]. - There may be a phase of market adjustment and rotation in the short term, but significant investment opportunities are anticipated in the medium to long term [4]. - The market is not expected to face major systemic risks before September, but overheating could limit upward momentum, making it suitable for structural opportunities [5]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The technology innovation direction is highlighted, with specific attention to sectors like computing, media, and semiconductors, as well as the traditional consumer electronics peak season in Q3 [5]. - The military industry is projected to have further potential for new highs, supported by policy-driven funds [6][7]. - AI application progress is a key focus, with potential opportunities in solid-state batteries, satellite internet, and controlled nuclear fusion [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy includes focusing on sectors with improved competitive landscapes and those entering profit release phases, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors [9]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is expected to see a shift towards domestic computing and applications, with positive earnings reports from overseas internet giants alleviating previous market concerns [10]. - The overall market trend is viewed positively, with expectations for certain sectors to continue strengthening despite potential short-term volatility [11]. Group 4: Emerging Opportunities - There is a focus on two main directions for strong beta investments: emerging technologies and sectors supported by policy, such as low-altitude and deep-sea industries [12].

Group 1 - The market performance this week exceeded expectations, driven by factors such as increased interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, appreciation of the RMB, stabilization of military conflicts in the Middle East, and anticipated visits from Trump to China [1] - Incremental capital sources include a marginal recovery in newly issued active equity public funds, rapid follow-up from leveraged funds, and a potential acceleration of insurance capital entering the market since mid-June [1] - The market's future performance will be dominated by capital and valuation, with a bullish long-term outlook for the index, although short-term fluctuations are expected rather than a continuous surge [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry allocation, a better strategy is to position at low levels and utilize odds thinking, with ongoing high-low switching being a key market signal [2] - The sectors that have shown relative underperformance since March 2020 but have seen marginally improved profit expectations recently are worth attention, including semiconductors, solid-state batteries, power grid equipment, industrial metals, and beer [2] - Caution is advised regarding short-term volatility risks in the banking sector as capital accelerates and the cost-effectiveness of stock-bond spreads decreases [2]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has decided to temporarily suspend IPOs, but is implementing a pre-review mechanism for high-quality technology companies, indicating a cautious approach rather than a full opening of the IPO market [1] - The CSRC's actions can be seen as a signal to further support IPOs after encouraging mergers and acquisitions, suggesting a positive market sentiment and potential for a bull market [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3362 points after a day of weak trading and a significant drop in trading volume to approximately 1.2 trillion [3] - There is a noticeable shift in market dynamics, with previously strong sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and digital currencies experiencing declines, while underperforming sectors like humanoid robots saw a rebound [3] Group 3 - Over 4000 stocks in the A-share market declined, with a significant increase in selling pressure as the market showed weak performance, leading to a closing volume exceeding 56 billion [5] - The lack of strong buying support during the market's decline suggests that large funds are not currently inclined to intervene, which could lead to further downward pressure if the market continues to fall [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index is at a critical turning point, with the 3330 to 3350 point range being particularly sensitive; if this range is breached, it could lead to more severe declines [6] - Historical patterns suggest that if the index can maintain this range, there may be potential for recovery, although current market conditions make predictions uncertain [6] Group 5 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.79%, while the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Indexes dropped by over 1% [7]

Index Level - The Shanghai Composite Index is still in a downward adjustment phase, with support around the gap at 3320 [3][4] - The ChiNext Index has fallen below its short-term moving averages, indicating potential weakness [3] - Overall market sentiment is low, with a trading volume of only 1.06 trillion, down by 185.7 billion, and a net sell-off of nearly 30 billion by domestic investors [3][4] Market Conclusion - The market is expected to continue its adjustment, and any potential rebounds should be viewed as temporary [4] - Investors should avoid chasing prices and consider maintaining around 50% of their positions [4] Sector Analysis - The banking and insurance sectors are showing strength, while brokerage firms are underperforming [5] - Consumer sectors like liquor are experiencing a rebound, but sustainability is uncertain [6] - The solid-state battery sector remains active, while some technology stocks are showing strength [5] Banking Sector Insights - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to a lack of alternative investment options, with banks offering around 4% dividend yields [7] - Investors are advised to hold existing positions in banks or cautiously enter with a portion of their capital [7] Hot Sector Breakdown - CPO is in a corrective phase but maintains an upward trend, presenting potential buying opportunities [7] - PCB shows a similar upward trend despite recent fluctuations, indicating potential for speculative opportunities [7] - The storage chip sector is in a consolidation phase, requiring further observation for potential upward movements [7] Additional Sector Observations - The innovative drug sector is in its sixth day of adjustment, with a downward trend persisting [8] - Stablecoins and digital currencies are showing signs of trend reversal, necessitating caution if they break below key support levels [8] - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing a slowdown in momentum, but short-term trading opportunities may still exist [8]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the market is low despite a strong performance in the major indices, indicating a potential final adjustment phase before a significant upward movement [1] - The A-share market's rebound is closely tied to the performance of the liquor sector, suggesting that a bottoming out in this sector could trigger a rapid index increase [1] - The market's fluctuations are primarily aimed at causing losses for retail investors, highlighting a strategic manipulation of stock prices [1] Group 2 - The central bank plans to conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, following a 1 trillion yuan injection at the beginning of the month, indicating a net liquidity injection for June [3] - There is a significant gap of 4 trillion yuan between the increase in deposits and the growth in loans over the first five months, suggesting that without a recovery in the real estate and stock markets, monetary easing may not effectively stimulate the economy [3] - Investors are currently favoring bank deposits over riskier investments like stocks and real estate, as the perceived safety of deposits outweighs potential losses in other sectors [3] Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to rebound significantly, with recent market movements characterized as a strategic manipulation to induce buying opportunities [5] - The market is undergoing a rotation process, where funds are being reallocated among sectors, and a recovery in key industries could lead to a substantial rebound in the index [5] - The current market dynamics suggest that the recent downturns are part of a larger strategy to prepare for a stronger upward movement, with institutional investors playing a crucial role [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A500 ETF fund (512050) experienced a weekly decline of 0.74%, but has seen a net inflow of 19.37 million yuan over the past five trading days, with a significant growth of 3.834 billion yuan in scale over the last six months, leading the comparable funds in new scale [1][2] - In the week before the holiday, 31 industries in the Shenwan first-level index showed mixed performance, with the pharmaceutical and environmental protection sectors leading the gains, while the automotive, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors declined [1] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May was reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] Group 2 - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a positive outlook, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points, and small enterprises reported a PMI of 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points [2] - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of various loans in financial institutions reached 265.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with a quarterly increase of 9.78 trillion yuan [2] - The balance of real estate loans in renminbi was 53.54 trillion yuan at the end of the first quarter of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.04%, with a quarterly increase of 619.7 billion yuan [2]

家人们，我是帮主郑重。二十年盯盘练就的火眼金睛，带你们穿透这波美股连涨的迷雾，看清市场真正的底牌！昨夜道指、标普双双拿下六连阳，表面歌舞 升平，实则暗流涌动——科技股分化、中概股疲软、大宗商品集体趴窝，这行情可比悬疑片还刺激！ 先说这美股"虚假繁荣"的戏码。道指0.75%的涨幅看着热闹，但扒开成分股一看，波音、卡特彼勒这些传统巨头贡献了过半涨幅，分明是资金在玩"高低切 换"的避险游戏。更值得玩味的是纳指，0.55%的涨幅全靠特斯拉硬撑，这位"孤胆英雄"独吞2.15%的涨幅，而亚马逊、谷歌这些老牌科技龙头却逆势微跌 ——这哪是牛市？分明是特斯拉带着几个小弟在扛旗！ 下期咱们重点拆解"超微电脑暴雷连锁反应"，关注帮主郑重，二十年经验教你如何从危机中挖黄金！散会！ 债市动向更值得细品。十年期美债收益率跌破4.17%，两年期收益率来到3.65%，这陡峭化的收益率曲线在暗示什么？结合消费者信心指数跌至疫情新低， 还有职位空缺数三连降，市场这是在赌美联储九月必降息啊！但各位别忘了，美联储那帮老头最擅长的就是"用嘴加息"，小心预期差反杀。 说到这，帮主给家人们划三条重点：其一，美股这波连涨根基不牢，科技股要等英伟达财报一锤 ...