▲ATFX图 名义PCE数据包含食品和能源等短周期剧烈波动的品种，数据稳定性较差，所以市场更看重核心PCE数据。历史数据看，美国核心PCE处在相对平稳 的波动状态：2024年5月份至今，核心PCE最大值2.989%，最小值2.615%，保持震荡态势。市场预期的9月份核心PCE数据2.9%，依旧处于区间内部， 不会改变当前的震荡状态。 ▲ATFX图 ATFX汇评：今日23:00，美国商务部将公布美国9月PCE相关数据，这份数据报告本应在10月份发布，但由于美国政府停摆，数据发布日期一再推迟， 时至今日才能最终发布。9月名义PCE年率数据看，前值为2.7%，预期值2.8%，预期微增0.1个百分点。9月核心PCE年率数据，前值为2.9%，预期值持 平。综合来看，名义和核心PCE数据均保持相对稳定，预计数据发布对美元行情的冲击较弱。 在美国核心PCE年率在2.9%附近波动时，美联储自9月份开始降息，已经连续降息两次，累计50基点。12月份的美联储利率决议也极有可能再次降息。 2.9%的通胀率处于温和通胀标准的2%～3%的上限附近，一旦货币政策过度宽松，有可能导致美国高通胀问题卷土重来，利空美元指数。 ▲ATFX图 技 ...

Core Insights - The release of the August core PCE data in the U.S. led to a rise in U.S. stock futures, indicating a positive market reaction to the economic data [1] Market Reaction - Dow Jones index futures increased by 0.46% [1] - S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.41% [1] - Nasdaq 100 index futures gained 0.42% [1]

Core Points - The article discusses significant upheavals in the U.S. financial market, including the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Cooke, the firing of the Labor Statistics Bureau chief, and a drastic revision of non-farm payroll data, indicating a potential economic downturn [1][3][4] Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported only 73,000 new jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, and revised down the previous two months' data by 258,000 jobs, suggesting a severe underperformance in job creation [3][4] - This situation has led to a loss of credibility in U.S. employment statistics, with the Atlanta Fed President acknowledging a potential overall economic weakness [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Power Struggle - The sudden resignation of Cooke, a Biden-appointed governor, raises concerns about internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve, especially as two Trump-appointed governors voted against immediate rate cuts for the first time since 1993 [4] - Trump's call for Powell to resign indicates a broader political maneuvering aimed at exerting control over the Federal Reserve, which could lead to significant shifts in monetary policy [4][5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the non-farm data release, the probability of a rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90%, with Goldman Sachs predicting three rate cuts within the year [5] - The capital markets reacted sharply, with the stock market losing over $1 trillion in value, and the dollar index dropping by 1.37%, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3.23%, indicating a flight to safety [5][6]

综合而言，通胀数据略超预期，投资者继续降低美联储九月降息预期，目前九月不降息概率已经超出降 息概率，短期黄金支撑力度有所减弱。 资料来源：Wind、新浪财经、金十数据、光大期货研究所 撰稿：吴爱华 从业资格：F3074355 投资咨询资格：Z0017696 来源：市场资讯 7月31日，COMEX黄金价格下跌0.31%至3342.30美元/盎司，沪金主连上涨0.12%至770.92元/克。 数据方面，美国6月核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.8%，略高于市场预期的0.29%和 2.7%；整体PCE指数环比上升0.3%，同比上涨2.6%，也是高于市场预期的0.23%和2.5%。除此之外，美 国7月芝加哥PMI 47.1，预期42，前值40.4。 降息方面，美国总统表示任命鲍威尔为美联储主席是个错误。最新CME"美联储观察"数据显示，9月维 持利率不变的概率为61.8%，降息25个基点的概率为38.2%，到10月维持利率不变的概率为39.4%，累计 降息25个基点的概率为46.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为13.9%。 免责声明：文中观点、建议和结论仅供参考，报告中的资料来源于公开信息，相关分析和建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on the upcoming core PCE data release in the U.S. and its potential impact on the gold market, particularly whether the current downward trend in gold prices can be reversed [1] Group 1 - The core PCE data is highly anticipated and is expected to influence market sentiment significantly [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring the situation to assess the implications for gold prices [1] - There is a sense of urgency in the market regarding the potential outcomes of the PCE data release [1]