Group 1 - The core point of the article is the upcoming release of the U.S. PCE data for September, which has been delayed due to the government shutdown, with nominal PCE expected to show a slight increase to 2.8% from the previous 2.7% and core PCE expected to remain stable at 2.9% [1][5] - The nominal PCE data is less stable due to the inclusion of volatile items like food and energy, making the core PCE data more significant for market analysis. Historical data shows core PCE has fluctuated between 2.615% and 2.989% since May 2024, indicating a stable trend [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has effectively maintained inflation stability over the past year and a half, with interest rates raised from 0.25% to 5.5% between March 2022 and July 2023, which has helped to avoid severe inflation issues [5][6] Group 2 - As core PCE hovers around 2.9%, the Federal Reserve has begun to lower interest rates, with two cuts totaling 50 basis points since September, and further cuts are anticipated in December [5][6] - The current inflation rate of 2.9% is near the upper limit of the moderate inflation range (2%-3%), suggesting that overly loose monetary policy could reignite high inflation, negatively impacting the U.S. dollar index [5][6] - From a technical perspective, the U.S. dollar index has three key levels: 100.23 (previous high), 96.18 (recent low), and 100.37 (potential new high). A lack of support for the 100.37 level could confirm a longer-term downtrend if the index fails to rebound above it [7]

Core Insights - The release of the August core PCE data in the U.S. led to a rise in U.S. stock futures, indicating a positive market reaction to the economic data [1] Market Reaction - Dow Jones index futures increased by 0.46% [1] - S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.41% [1] - Nasdaq 100 index futures gained 0.42% [1]

Core Points - The article discusses significant upheavals in the U.S. financial market, including the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Cooke, the firing of the Labor Statistics Bureau chief, and a drastic revision of non-farm payroll data, indicating a potential economic downturn [1][3][4] Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported only 73,000 new jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, and revised down the previous two months' data by 258,000 jobs, suggesting a severe underperformance in job creation [3][4] - This situation has led to a loss of credibility in U.S. employment statistics, with the Atlanta Fed President acknowledging a potential overall economic weakness [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Power Struggle - The sudden resignation of Cooke, a Biden-appointed governor, raises concerns about internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve, especially as two Trump-appointed governors voted against immediate rate cuts for the first time since 1993 [4] - Trump's call for Powell to resign indicates a broader political maneuvering aimed at exerting control over the Federal Reserve, which could lead to significant shifts in monetary policy [4][5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the non-farm data release, the probability of a rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90%, with Goldman Sachs predicting three rate cuts within the year [5] - The capital markets reacted sharply, with the stock market losing over $1 trillion in value, and the dollar index dropping by 1.37%, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3.23%, indicating a flight to safety [5][6]

综合而言，通胀数据略超预期，投资者继续降低美联储九月降息预期，目前九月不降息概率已经超出降 息概率，短期黄金支撑力度有所减弱。 资料来源：Wind、新浪财经、金十数据、光大期货研究所 撰稿：吴爱华 从业资格：F3074355 投资咨询资格：Z0017696 来源：市场资讯 7月31日，COMEX黄金价格下跌0.31%至3342.30美元/盎司，沪金主连上涨0.12%至770.92元/克。 数据方面，美国6月核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.8%，略高于市场预期的0.29%和 2.7%；整体PCE指数环比上升0.3%，同比上涨2.6%，也是高于市场预期的0.23%和2.5%。除此之外，美 国7月芝加哥PMI 47.1，预期42，前值40.4。 降息方面，美国总统表示任命鲍威尔为美联储主席是个错误。最新CME"美联储观察"数据显示，9月维 持利率不变的概率为61.8%，降息25个基点的概率为38.2%，到10月维持利率不变的概率为39.4%，累计 降息25个基点的概率为46.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为13.9%。 免责声明：文中观点、建议和结论仅供参考，报告中的资料来源于公开信息，相关分析和建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on the upcoming core PCE data release in the U.S. and its potential impact on the gold market, particularly whether the current downward trend in gold prices can be reversed [1] Group 1 - The core PCE data is highly anticipated and is expected to influence market sentiment significantly [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring the situation to assess the implications for gold prices [1] - There is a sense of urgency in the market regarding the potential outcomes of the PCE data release [1]