每周一景： 云南兰坪澜沧江山谷河流村庄风光 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【策略】2025中国股市上升的关键动力：无风险利率下行 中国股市估值逻辑的转变： 预期变动的主要矛盾，已经从经济周期的波动，转变为贴现率的下行，中国A/H股市整体估值中枢上修。经过三年出清和调整， 投资人对经济形势的认识已然充分，其对估值收缩的边际影响减小。人心中对未来预期的主要矛盾，已从经济周期波动，转变为贴现率变动，尤其是无风险利 率的下行。股市的无风险利率并不能简单等同于国债收益率，而是投资人投资股票的机会成本。过去三年内外部过高的机会成本阻碍了投资人的入市意愿。 2025年中国股市无风险利率下降的通道已经打开，A/H股整体估值将得以提高。投资人应转变对主要矛盾的认识，战略看多中国。 他山之石：当利率下降到一定程度，投资人对固定收益产品兴趣下降，对股票和权益产品兴趣上升。 1）来自日本的经验：20世纪90年代末，日本长期国债 利率跌破2%，尽管日本并未走出通缩环境，但此后日本债券的规模开始"反常识"地减小，股票和权益的规模进入逐步扩张，但波动较大。2）来自美国的经 验：2011年前后美国长期国债利率跌破2%，尽管债券价格仍在走高，但 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.23 [Table_Industry] 核电设备 中国聚变能源有限公司在沪成立，核聚变 行业再添关键力量 中国聚变能源有限公司在沪成立，由中核集团、昆仑资本等七家股东方共同增资至 150 亿元，核聚变行业再添关键力量，建议重点关注核聚变产业链。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 核电设备《谷歌签订核聚变供电协议，核聚变行 业发展再迎里程碑》2025.07.01 核电设备《上海超导科创板 IPO 获得上交所受 理，核聚变产业化正在提速》2025.06.19 核电设备《BEST 提前 2 个月开始总装，聚变堆 建设启动全面攻关》2025.05.07 核电设备《催化密集落地，核聚变行业加速发 展》2025.05.07 核电设备《10 台核电新机组又获批，产业链发展 长期可持续》2025.04.29 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | | | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 证书编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | ...

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20250723 ◼ 公司公告：无 ◼ 风险提示：个股盈利不及预期，行业竞争加剧，贸易摩擦加剧，政策不 及预期等。 2025 年 07 月 23 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 薛路熹 执业证书：S0600525070008 xuelx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 海南封关进一步扩大开放，北证指数有所回 调 wual@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《北证 50 修复性回弹，成交额缩量下 跌》 2025-06-23 《北证指数震荡回调，开展专精特新 指数测试》 2025-06-22 东吴证券研究所 1/9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 资本市场新闻：1）海南自贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements in nuclear fusion research in Hefei, particularly the achievements of the EAST (Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak) device, which has set world records in plasma operation, marking a crucial step towards the realization of nuclear fusion as a viable energy source [1][4][8]. Group 1: Progress of "Artificial Sun" - The EAST device achieved a plasma temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius for 1066 seconds, setting a new world record for high confinement mode operation [1][4]. - The CRAFT (Kua Fu) low ripple current drive system has passed expert testing and has been fully domesticated, playing a key role in heating plasma to extreme temperatures [1][4]. - Since its establishment in 2006, the EAST device has conducted over 150,000 experiments, contributing valuable data for understanding nuclear fusion processes [7][8]. Group 2: Energy Industry's "Butterfly Effect" - Nuclear fusion energy offers unique advantages such as abundant raw materials, safety, efficiency, and low carbon emissions, with deuterium extracted from seawater providing energy equivalent to 300 liters of gasoline per liter of seawater [11]. - The nuclear fusion industry chain is expected to grow significantly, with upstream materials like lithium and beryllium becoming increasingly in demand as research progresses [12]. - The midstream involves high-precision equipment manufacturing, which will accelerate the overall upgrade of China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry [13]. - The downstream sector will see a transformation in energy supply, potentially replacing traditional fossil fuels with clean nuclear fusion energy, enhancing energy security and reducing environmental pollution [14]. Group 3: Hefei's Support for "Artificial Sun" - Hefei has become a focal point for nuclear fusion research, establishing itself as a national scientific center with significant infrastructure and innovation platforms [16]. - The city has formed a fusion industry alliance with over 1,000 units to collaboratively tackle key technologies and accelerate the full industry chain layout [18]. - Hefei is actively promoting the transformation of scientific achievements into production, providing a conducive environment for technology commercialization [19].

Macroeconomic Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [1] - Economic forecasts indicate heightened stagflation concerns, with the Fed lowering growth predictions for 2025 and 2026, raising unemployment rate forecasts, and increasing price index predictions [1] - Tariff impacts on inflation have yet to fully materialize, with expectations of future inflation uncertainty due to tariffs and geopolitical issues, particularly in the Middle East [1][2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025 unchanged, but a reduction in anticipated cuts for 2026 from two to one [1] Nuclear Fusion Industry - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, indicating acceleration in the nuclear fusion industry's commercialization [4] - The company holds over 80% market share in the domestic second-generation high-temperature superconducting wire market, with a global market size projected to exceed 10.5 billion by 2030 [5] - Revenue projections for Shanghai Superconductor show significant growth, with expected revenues of 2.40 billion in 2024, a 187.4% increase year-over-year, and a turnaround to profitability [6] - The nuclear fusion sector is recognized for its potential as an ideal energy source, with the Chinese government emphasizing its importance in future energy strategies [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the National Defense ETF (512670.SH) and its constituent stocks, driven by new regulations on major asset restructuring in the military industry and the initiation of significant fusion energy projects in China [1] - The National Defense ETF increased by 1.13%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Haige Communication (up 9.96%) and Aerospace Rainbow (up 9.99%) [1] - The military sector is experiencing a divergence in funding, with passive funds like the National Defense ETF seeing increased net inflows, indicating a growing market expectation for a recovery in the industry's fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The recent asset restructuring regulations are expected to attract market attention towards four types of companies involved in military asset integration, correlating with the stock price movements of military enterprises like Aerospace Rainbow and Haige Communication [1] - The aerospace and aviation sectors are under pressure, while emerging areas such as low-altitude economy are performing well, suggesting a shift in investor focus within the military sector [1] - Companies with technological advantages or event-driven catalysts are more likely to attract funding, aligning with the strong performance of certain National Defense ETF constituents [1]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.08 Q1 持仓回升，Q2 内需为锚 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_subIndustry 相关报告 ] ——有色金属 2025 年一季度机构配置综述 [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) 梁琳(研究助理) 021-38676666 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880522080001 S0880125042230 股 票 研 究 行 业 深 度 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 维持有色行业增持评级，看好。1）持仓角度上，有色金属板块整体 被增持，处于超配状态，25Q1 铜、金板块增持较多。2）基本面角 度， 2025Q2 我们看好：①工业金属：基本面韧性，关注优质铝加 工企业。展望 Q2，我们认为随着国内宏观政策推动内需回暖，利好 工业金属板块，就铝而言，供给侧电解铝产能已接近天花板，供需 紧平衡对铝价形成有力支撑。由于美国关税政策外部扰动，铝加工 板块股价承压有所调整。考虑到行业基本面稳健，叠加铝材需求有 望充分受益于内需改善 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Xuguang Electronics Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 27.64 million yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.66%, driven by product structure optimization and investment income from a joint venture [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 27.64 million yuan, reflecting a 35.66% increase year-on-year [1] - The investment in the high-voltage vacuum circuit breaker project is capped at 355 million yuan, aiming to produce 20,000 units annually [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The high-voltage vacuum circuit breaker market is currently dominated by foreign brands, holding approximately 70% market share, and the company's investment aims to break this monopoly and enhance market competitiveness [2] - The company has developed a mature technology system and industrialization capability for its 126kV vacuum circuit breaker, which has passed certification and is now operational [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for high-voltage vacuum circuit breakers is expected to grow due to domestic power grid upgrades and the global trend of replacing SF₆ gas [1][2] - The company is expanding its power business system to cover traditional, new, and ultimate energy sectors, with products applicable in various energy fields [2] - The ongoing development in the power industry, coupled with national policies supporting domestic production, is expected to drive the electronic components industry towards higher voltage levels, performance, and miniaturization [3]