2025 年 12 月 15 日 "低价"和供应压力之间的拉扯 ---2026 年棉花期货行情展望 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：2026 年棉花价格看区间震荡 我们的逻辑： 预计 2025/26 年度国际市场棉花供应宽松。在中国和巴西棉花产量连续第二年大幅增长的背景下，2025/26 年度全球棉花产量预计将维持在偏高水平，主要出口国的棉花供应预期保持稳定，巴西和美国的出口压力较大。 而全球经济和贸易形势仍然比较复杂、原油价格偏弱，国际市场的棉花的终端需求和直接需求目前仍不乐观。 预计 2025/26 年度中国棉花供需双强。新疆棉花产量连续第二年大幅增长奠定了国内棉花供应充足的基 础。国内纺织继续新增产能并投入生产预计将支撑国内棉花的直接需求。不过，需要注意终端消费情况、纺织 企业利润和库存情况对棉花需求的影响，另外关注阶段性的市场预期的变化和交割博弈的影响。 国际和国内棉花供应都比较充足，国内外棉花价格仍然缺乏上涨驱动，不过，从成本角度来看，国内外棉 花价格下行的空间或都比较有限，预计内外盘棉花期货将延续 2025 年的区间震荡的走势。国际 ...

美棉花 64.03 64.42 63.82 63.90 -0.31% 【棉花市场消息速递】 12月5日，郑商所棉花期货仓单5490张，环比上个交易日增加70张。 截至2025年12月4日，全国新年度棉花公证检验量累计464.36万吨。 北京时间12月8日，美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货价格弱势震荡，今日开盘报63.91美分/磅，现报 63.92美分/磅，跌幅0.05%，盘中最高触及64.00美分/磅，最低下探63.85美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 12月5日美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 据美国农业部(USDA)报告显示，2025年10月17-23日，美国2025/26年度陆地棉净出口签约量为3.01万 吨，较前周减少24.4%，较前四周平均值减少22.9%，美国2025/26年度陆地棉装运量为3.96万吨，较前 周增长9.4%，较前四周平均值增长21.5%。 ...

品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 64.66 64.95 64.42 64.71 0.15% 【棉花市场消息速递】 北京时间12月1日，美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货价格区间震荡，今日开盘报64.70美分/磅，现报 64.57美分/磅，跌幅0.25%，盘中最高触及64.82美分/磅，最低下探64.53美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 11月28日美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货行情 美国农业部：截至10月16日当周，美国2025/2026年度陆地棉出口净销售为17.6万包，前一周为15.8万 包；2026/2027年度陆地棉净销售2.7万包，前一周为0万包；美国2025/2026年度陆地棉出口装船16万 包，前一周为13.9万包。 调研显示，截止至11月27日，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加1.28%，总库存38.03万吨，其中，山东地 区青岛、济南港口及周边仓31.7万吨，同比减少22.87%，江苏地区张家港港口及周边仓库进口棉库存约 3.42万吨，其他港口库存约2.91万吨。 11月28日，全国3128皮棉到厂均价14896元/吨，涨80.00元/吨；全国32s纯棉纱环锭纺价格213 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown a slight increase, indicating a stable market environment for cotton trading [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Futures Market Overview - On November 24, ICE cotton futures opened at 63.95 cents per pound and are currently at 64.15 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1]. - The intraday trading range for cotton futures reached a high of 64.24 cents per pound and a low of 63.95 cents per pound [1]. Group 2: Historical Price Data - On November 21, ICE cotton futures had an opening price of 63.76 cents per pound, a closing price of 63.77 cents per pound, with a maximum price of 63.94 cents and a minimum of 63.11 cents, resulting in a slight decrease of 0.06% [2]. - As of November 20, the inventory of deliverable 2nd grade cotton contracts on ICE remained unchanged at 20,344 bales [2]. Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - On November 21, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 3,465 cotton futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1,185 receipts compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The average price of 3128 grade cotton delivered nationwide was stable at 14,639 yuan per ton, while the price for 32s pure cotton yarn was also stable at 21,396 yuan per ton [2]. - Spinning profit remained unchanged at -706.9 yuan per ton, indicating no significant changes in the profitability of spinning enterprises [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with current trading at 64.43 cents per pound, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.02% [1] - On November 18, the opening price for cotton futures was 64.10 cents per pound, reaching a high of 64.87 cents and a low of 63.75 cents, closing at 64.56 cents, which represents an increase of 0.59% [2] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicates that as of November 16, the cotton harvest rate in the U.S. was 71%, compared to 76% during the same period last year and a five-year average of 72% [2] Group 2 - In October, China's cotton imports totaled 90,000 tons, marking a year-on-year decrease of 15.6% [2] - The Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported a price of 64.62 cents per pound on November 18, which is an increase of 0.14% from the previous day and a rise of 0.09% compared to the same period last month [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are experiencing a slight decline, with the current price at 66.18 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.23% [1] - On September 26, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 66.21 cents per pound, with a closing price of 66.35 cents per pound, showing a slight increase of 0.17% [2] - As of September 28, 2025, a total of 107,811 bales of cotton have been inspected and certified, amounting to 24,381 tons, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 1,511.43% [2] Group 2 - The Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported a price of 67.92 cents per pound on September 26, marking an increase of 0.55% from the previous day but a decrease of 5.48% compared to the same period last month [2] - The national cotton processing rate in China was reported at 22.0% as of September 25, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points but an increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to the average of the past four years [2] - The sale of new cotton has not yet commenced, indicating a potential delay in market activity [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), with a slight decline observed in recent trading sessions [1][2] - As of September 2, the opening price for cotton futures was reported at 66.63 cents per pound, with a closing price of 66.06 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.71% [2] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicated that the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. cotton was at 51%, down from 54% the previous week, while the blooming rate reached 94%, significantly higher than the previous week's 81% [2] Group 2 - The ICE reported that as of August 29, the inventory of deliverable 2nd grade cotton contracts remained stable at 15,474 bales [2] - On September 2, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported a total of 6,131 cotton futures warehouse receipts, which is a decrease of 189 receipts compared to the previous trading day [3]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight upward trend observed on September 2, 2023, indicating market volatility and potential investment opportunities in the cotton sector [1] Cotton Futures Market Review - On September 2, 2023, ICE cotton futures opened at 66.63 cents per pound and are currently at 66.73 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.30% increase, with an intraday high of 66.86 cents and a low of 66.59 cents [1] - On September 1, 2023, the opening, highest, lowest, and closing prices for U.S. cotton were all recorded at 66.53 cents per pound, with a slight increase of 0.02% [1] Cotton Market News - As of August 30, 2023, Brazil's cotton harvesting rate reached 87.6%, a significant increase from 60.3% the previous week and higher than the 72.8% recorded during the same period last year, as well as above the five-year average of 86.5% [1] - On September 1, 2023, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6,320, a decrease of 194 from the previous trading day [1] - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) on September 1, 2023, was 15,479 yuan per ton, which is an increase of 151 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown an upward trend, with recent trading indicating a slight increase in price, reflecting market dynamics and external factors affecting cotton production [1][2]. Price Movement - On August 28, ICE cotton futures opened at 66.68 cents per pound and reached a current price of 66.74 cents per pound, marking a 0.14% increase. The intraday high was 66.80 cents per pound, while the low was 66.65 cents per pound [1]. - On August 27, the cotton futures closed at 66.72 cents per pound, down by 0.04% from the previous day, with an opening price of 66.66 cents, a high of 66.88 cents, and a low of 66.55 cents [2]. Market Conditions - The Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported at 71.84 cents per pound on August 27, reflecting a 0.10% increase from the previous day but a 2.34% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in cotton futures warehouse receipts, with a total of 6,861 contracts, down by 121 contracts from the previous trading day [2]. Weather Impact - Recent heavy rainfall in the semi-arid southwestern region has posed a significant threat to cotton crops, with reports indicating that over 8,000 acres of farmland in the Fazilka region have been flooded, adversely affecting the growth stage of cotton plants and diminishing harvest prospects [2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a current price of 67.95 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.07% from the opening price of 68.00 cents per pound [1] - On August 22, the opening price for cotton futures was 67.44 cents, reaching a high of 68.30 cents and a low of 67.30 cents, closing at 67.97 cents, which represents an increase of 0.83% [2] - The report from PCGA indicates that Pakistan's cotton arrivals have dropped to 887,401 bales this year, down from 1,075,028 bales in the same period last year, marking a decrease of 187,627 bales or 17.45% [2] Group 2 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in cotton futures warehouse receipts to 7,261 contracts, down by 262 contracts from the previous trading day [2] - India has suspended the 11% import duty on cotton, effective until September 30 [2]