关注下游开机情况， 回调尝试买入 棉花月报 2026/03/06 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：（1）据国际棉花咨询委员会(ICAC)最新预测，全球2026/27年度棉花产量预估下滑4%，至2480万吨，消费量预计持稳，为2500万 吨。（2）据USDA数据显示，2月19日至2月26日当周，美国当前年度棉花出口销售3.58万吨，累计出口销售208.65万吨，同比减少16.39万吨； 其中当周对中国出口0.18万吨，累计出口10.03万吨，同比减少9.02万吨。（3）据Mysteel数据显示，截至2月27日当周，纺纱厂开机率为 64.6%，环比前一周上调24.1个百分点；全国棉花商业库存536万吨，环比前一周减少5万吨。（4）据USDA数据显示，1月预测2025/26年度全 球产量为2600万吨，环比12月预测下调8万吨，较上年度增 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货软商品月报 郑棉震荡上行 涨势延续 棉花 2026 年 3 月 1 日 主要结论 棉花：国内市场综合来看，郑棉保持上行概率较高，新年度供应收紧，商业 库存已拐头，且关税综合计算有所下调提振出口。但需警惕两大风险：一是美国 关税新政若落地，全球棉贸格局或发生变化，部分国家或存在优惠税率挤出中国 订单；二是巴西棉持续放量可能压制外盘涨幅，内外价差过大将制约郑棉上行空 间。操作上，建议依托基本面逢低布局，关注国内复工进度、美棉出口销售数据 及关税政策落地情况。操作方面来看，回踩支撑做多思路为主，上方压力参考 16000 元/吨。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 国际市场综合来看，USDA 2 月供需月报影响偏空，但是展望论坛上释放偏 多信号，新年度全球棉花产量调减、需求调增、期末库存下降。市场正在等待需 求端的明确信号，整体呈偏多的格局，下方空间预计有限。 分析师：侯雅婷 从业资格号：F3037058 投资咨询号：Z0013232 电话：021-55007766-305169 邮箱：15227@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自 ...

01 月度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 郑棉延续高位震荡， 关注低吸的机会 棉花月报 2026/02/06 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 04 国际市场情况 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：（1）据USDA数据显示，1月22日至1月29日当周，美国当前年度棉花出口销售5.74万吨，累计出口销售182.96万吨，同比减少 20.26万吨；其中当周对中国出口0.83万吨，累计出口10.57万吨，同比减少5.85万吨。（2）据Mysteel数据显示，截至1月23日当周，纺纱 厂开机率为64.2%，环比前一周下调0.4个百分点；全国棉花商业库存565万吨，环比前一周减少5万吨。（3）据USDA数据显示，1月预测 2025/26年度全球产量为2600万吨，环比12月预测下调8万吨，较上年度增加20万吨；库存消费比62.63%，环比12月预测减少1.42个百分点， 较上年度增加0.62个百分点。其中1月预测美国产量303万吨，环比1 ...

等待回调择机做多 棉花周报 2026/01/17 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：据USDA数据显示，1月预测2025/26年度全球产量为2600万吨，环比12月预测下调8万吨，较上年度增加20万吨；库存消费比 62.63%，环比12月预测减少1.42个百分点，较上年度增加0.62个百分点。其中1月预测美国产量303万吨，环比12月预测减少7.6万吨，出口 预估维持不变，库存消费比30.43%，环比减少2.17个百分点。巴西产量预估持平为408万吨；印度产量下调11万吨至512万吨；中国产量上调 22万吨至751万吨。据巴西对外贸易秘书处(Secex)公布的出口数据显示，巴西12月出口原棉45万吨，同比增加10万吨，环比前一个月增加5 万吨。其中，12月对中国出口原棉14.6万吨，同比增加6万吨，环比前一个月增加4万吨。据USDA数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price in 2026 is expected to show a range - bound oscillation. The international cotton supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose, and the demand remains unoptimistic. The cotton supply and demand in China in the 2025/26 season are likely to be strong. Due to sufficient supply both internationally and domestically, there is a lack of upward drivers for cotton prices, but the downside space is limited. The cotton futures of both domestic and international markets are expected to continue the range - bound oscillation trend of 2025. [2][85][86] - It is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy, combined with on - exchange and off - exchange option operations. [3][86] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Cotton Futures Market Review - In 2025, most of the time, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) cotton futures traded within a narrow range of 13,200 - 14,000 yuan/ton. The correlation between CZCE cotton futures and ICE cotton futures was generally low in 2025, and the pricing of domestic cotton futures became more independent. The correlation between CZCE cotton futures and the Shanghai Composite Index was high at certain stages in 2025, indicating that the CZCE cotton futures were affected by external market sentiment. The basis of domestic cotton in 2025 was generally strong. [5][6] 2. 2026 Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand Outlook 2.1 2026 Global Cotton Market Supply - The global cotton supply in 2026 is expected to be loose. The global cotton output in the 2025/26 season is at a relatively high level, mainly due to the significant increase in cotton production in China and Brazil for the second consecutive year. The supply of major cotton - exporting countries is expected to remain stable, but Brazil and the United States face greater export pressure. [13][14][24] - The planting intentions of major cotton - producing countries in 2026 need attention. Brazil's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season is not expected to decrease, but if there is inventory backlog, it may affect future planting enthusiasm. The cotton - to - grain ratio in the United States is at a historical low, and U.S. cotton exports may affect the 2026 cotton planting area. India's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to be slightly reduced, and it is necessary to pay attention to its textile and clothing exports and cotton imports. [29][35][40] 2.2 2026 Global Cotton Market Demand - The global cotton consumption outlook remains unoptimistic. The USDA estimates that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.88 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the 2024/25 season. The global textile and clothing trade volume in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, but there is a risk of a decline in global trade volume. The direct cotton demand of major textile - producing countries is restricted by weak terminal demand and operational difficulties of textile enterprises. [44][48][50] 3. 2026 China Cotton Market Supply and Demand Outlook 3.1 2026 China Cotton Supply - The total cotton supply in China in 2026 is expected to be sufficient. China's cotton output in 2025 increased significantly for the second consecutive year. The cotton and cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase slightly. The initial inventory of cotton in the new season is low, and the supply pressure is postponed to after March 2026. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to remain stable. [57][58][61] 3.2 2026 China Cotton Consumption - The terminal textile and clothing consumption situation is not optimistic, but the direct cotton demand for textile production is expected to be stable. The continuous release of new textile production capacity will support the domestic cotton demand, but attention should be paid to the profit and inventory status of textile enterprises. [66][67][76]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are experiencing weak fluctuations, with a slight decline observed in recent trading sessions [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Futures Market Overview - On December 8, the ICE cotton futures opened at 63.91 cents per pound and are currently at 63.92 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%. The intraday high reached 64.00 cents per pound, while the low dipped to 63.85 cents per pound [1]. - On December 5, the ICE cotton futures had an opening price of 64.03 cents per pound, peaked at 64.42 cents, and closed at 63.90 cents, marking a decline of 0.31% [2]. Group 2: Cotton Market Data - As of December 5, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 5,490 cotton futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 70 receipts compared to the previous trading day [2]. - By December 4, the cumulative certified inspection volume of the new cotton year in the country reached 4.6436 million tons [2]. - According to the USDA report, for the week of October 17-23, 2025, the net export contracts for U.S. upland cotton were 30,100 tons, a decrease of 24.4% from the previous week and down 22.9% from the four-week average. The shipment volume for the same period was 39,600 tons, which represents a 9.4% increase from the previous week and a 21.5% increase from the four-week average [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points as expected, but due to overly dovish expectations, commodities and stocks fell after the rate cut. Entering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the operating rates of the downstream industry chain are gradually increasing but still lower than the same period in previous years. With no new supply, the current domestic cotton inventory is at a historically low level, but there are expectations of increased production in the long - term. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the December contract of US cotton futures closed at 66.3 cents per pound, down 0.46 cents per pound from the previous week, a decline of 0.69%. The spread between December and March of US cotton weakened slightly, at -2 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fell. As of Friday, the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,720 yuan per ton, down 140 yuan per ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.01%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,319 yuan per ton, down 71 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis strengthened, at 1,528 yuan per ton, up 161 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between January and May of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, at 15 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 66.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and down 5.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and down 14.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.14 million tons, 520,000 tons less than the same period last year. In August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China imported 590,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.05 million tons [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: After the Fed's rate cut, short - term commodities and stocks fell. The current fundamentals show that although the operating rates of the downstream industry chain are increasing, they are still lower than in previous years. The domestic cotton inventory is low, but there are expectations of increased production in the long - term. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On September 19, 2025, the basis was 1,528 yuan per ton, the spread between January and May of Zhengzhou cotton was 15 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was -1,107 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 203 yuan per ton, and the FC index M with 1% tariff was 13,457 yuan per ton, and with sliding - scale duty was 14,258 yuan per ton. The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate [10]. 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton contract spreads, and external market spreads, to show the spread trends of different periods and varieties [24][26][28] 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Production and Imports**: The report shows the data and trends of China's cotton processing, import volume, US exports to China, and cotton yarn imports through various charts [38][40][43][45] - **Downstream Operations**: It presents the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills, national sales progress, cotton inventory, and spinning mill raw material and finished - product inventory through charts [48][50][53][55] 4. International Market Situation - **US Market**: The report shows the US cotton planting situation, production, yield, planting area, export signing progress, export shipping volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through various charts [59][61][63][67][69] - **Brazilian Market**: It presents Brazil's cotton planting area, yield, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through charts [72][75][78] - **Indian Market**: The report shows India's cotton planting area, yield, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through charts [80][83][86]

Core Insights - Brazil's cotton exports in August 2023 totaled 77,463.39 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [1] - The average daily export volume for August 2023 was 3,688.73 tons, down 27% compared to the previous year [1] - In August 2022, Brazil exported 111,764.74 tons of cotton, with an average daily export volume of 5,080.22 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures prices continued to fluctuate, with the main contract closing at 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - From August 9-11, the basis for spot Australian cotton LM1-5/32 (strength 29-30 GPT) was approximately 3.5-4.5 cents/pound, while LM1-3/16 (strength 30 GPT) had a basis of 6-6.75 cents/pound. The basis for bonded Australian cotton M1-5/32 (strength 28/29) at major ports in China was generally around 13.5-15 cents/pound [2] - In the first week of August, Brazil exported 17,242.63 tons of cotton, with an average daily export volume of 2,873.77 tons, a decrease of 43% compared to the average daily export volume for the entire month of August 2024. The total export volume for August 2024 was 111,764.74 tons, with the decline attributed to reduced market demand and price competition [2] - As of the week ending August 8, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.7%, down 0.9 percentage points week-on-week and down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. The weaving mill operating rate was 37%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week and down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. Weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.01 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week-on-week and flat year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Futures noted that the new cotton growth is generally normal, with recent weather conditions having limited impact on cotton growth. The market has strong expectations for a bumper crop in 2025, which is suppressing the prices of distant contracts. Demand remains under pressure, with low operating rates in textile enterprises, high grey fabric inventory, insufficient export orders, and no significant improvement in domestic consumption. Although some textile companies expect a temporary recovery in late August, overall market confidence is lacking. The current cotton prices face pressure from above and support from below, with the market lacking core drivers and awaiting further news [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures indicated that cotton prices are currently maintaining a range-bound trend. On the supply side, cotton supply is relatively tight, and the spot basis remains firm. Future attention is needed on whether additional sliding tax quota will be issued. On the demand side, there are marginal improvements in downstream industries, but overall confidence remains low. Macroeconomic factors suggest that short-term tariff impacts may weaken, and attention should be paid to policies against "involution" affecting bulk commodities. Overall, Zheng cotton may experience short-term fluctuations with potential upward movement, but the upper space is expected to be limited, and medium-term pressure is anticipated from the new cotton harvest [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) decreased by 0.15%, closing at 13,670 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Trading volume sharply declined, and the contract is in the process of position transfer. ICE cotton slightly dropped by 0.36%, closing at 66.92 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the international cotton price remains in a weak consolidation state due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and weak US cotton export demand. Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, but it is still at a high level. The new cotton this year is likely to have a good harvest, and the demand is still weak, so the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [16]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Overview - Zhengzhou cotton's main 2509 contract decreased by 0.15%, closing at 13,670 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Trading volume decreased significantly, and the contract is in the position - transfer stage. ICE cotton slightly dropped by 0.36%, closing at 66.92 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to external market trends, the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 7, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,677 (-135) sheets, with registered warehouse receipts at 8,329 (-135) sheets and valid forecasts at 348 (+0) sheets [3]. - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicts that the global cotton trade volume will remain stable at 9.7 million tons. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 25.9 million tons, slightly exceeding the expected consumption of 25.6 million tons. India will maintain its position as the country with the largest cotton - planting area, accounting for 38% of the global total. China is expected to continue leading in cotton production, accounting for 24% of the global total, and remain the largest cotton consumer, with an expected consumption of 8.2 million tons, accounting for 32% of the global total. The ICAC estimates the cotton price for the next season to range from 57 to 94 cents/pound, with a median of 73 cents/pound [3][4]. - As of August 4, 2025, the cotton flowering rate in Xinjiang was about 98%, a 3.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The flower positions were mainly on the 9th, 10th, and 11th fruiting branches, with an average boll number of 8.6, an increase of 1.4 from the previous period [4]. - US President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continuous import of Russian oil. The new tariff will take effect 21 days after August 7, and the comprehensive tax rate for some Indian goods will rise to 50% [4]. - The cotton - picking operation in South Texas, USA, has expanded, and there has been continuous rainfall in the southeastern cotton - growing area. In Brazil, the cotton - picking progress in the main production area continues to advance. As of August 1, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state increased by 8.5 percentage points to 18.3% month - on - month, 16.4 percentage points behind the same period last year [5]. 3.3 Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [7][8][11]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Internationally, the US Middle East envoy has arrived in Russia, and Trump has set August 8 as the "deadline" for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war. The situation of the war makes an immediate cease - fire unlikely. The international cotton price remains in a weak consolidation state due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and weak US cotton export demand [16]. - Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory has been decreasing, but it is still at a high level. The main contract is in the position - transfer stage. The new cotton this year is likely to have a good harvest, and the demand remains weak, so the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [16].