Core Viewpoint - The issuance of additional import cotton quotas is timely, as the current supply-demand relationship for cotton shows a tight domestic market and a loose international market, with a price difference of 4000 yuan/ton affecting the competitiveness of domestic textile enterprises. The increase of 300,000 tons in import quotas can effectively alleviate structural contradictions [4][5]. Group 1: Impact of Import Quota Increase - The increase in import cotton quotas will positively affect external markets but has limited impact on domestic cotton prices. The additional quota of 300,000 tons, which is 100,000 tons more than last year, is restricted to processing trade and will not excessively suppress domestic cotton prices [5][28]. - The timing of the quota issuance in early March is earlier than in previous years, indicating that the current cotton market has triggered close attention from policymakers and potential adjustments in related policies [5][31]. - The current "cotton policy tool pool" has various options available, and if domestic cotton prices rise too quickly or too high, there may be a possibility of subsequent policy measures being implemented [5][31]. Group 2: Details of the 2026 Import Quota Policy - The official announcement of the increase in import quotas was made on March 16, 2026, with a total of 300,000 tons to be issued [7]. - The application deadline for the quotas is December 29, 2026, and the required application materials include a copy of the import cotton purchase contract and a business license [8][9]. - The validity period of the quota certificate is three months from the date of issuance, expiring no later than February 28, 2027 [10][21]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparison - Compared to previous years, the current quota increase is significant, with the number of quotas being 300,000 tons, which is 100,000 tons more than the previous year. The method of issuance is limited to processing trade [14][18]. - Historical data shows that the issuance of processing trade quotas has been a common practice during periods of tight supply, ensuring that only qualified enterprises can utilize these quotas [18][19]. Group 4: Market and Price Implications - The increase in import quotas is expected to lower cotton import costs, which will help narrow the price gap between domestic and international cotton [22][24]. - The limited nature of the additional quotas means that while they may influence the volatility of domestic cotton prices, they will not lead to a significant decrease in prices [28]. - The increase in quotas is also expected to benefit ICE cotton futures, as it allows for competition without the additional 10% tariff on U.S. cotton, thus providing a more favorable environment for U.S. cotton exports [25][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures significantly increased in positions and prices, with the market pre - gaming the peak season in March. The report suggests focusing on the downstream startup situation in March. If the downstream startup supports, Zhengzhou cotton still has room to rise. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information** - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicts that global cotton production in the 2026/27 season will decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption is expected to remain stable at 25 million tons [9]. - From February 19th to 26th, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. Among them, the export to China that week was 1,800 tons, with cumulative exports of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons [9]. - As of the week of February 27th, the spinning mill startup rate was 64.6%, a 24.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.36 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [9]. - In January, the USDA predicted that the global production in the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December prediction and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December prediction and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The predicted US production was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December prediction, with export estimates remaining unchanged and the inventory - to - consumption ratio at 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease [9]. - Brazilian production was estimated to remain at 4.08 million tons; Indian production was lowered by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; Chinese production was raised by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [9]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [9]. - **View and Strategy** - After the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou cotton futures increased in positions and prices. Focus on the downstream startup situation in March. If it is favorable, Zhengzhou cotton has room to rise, and the strategy is to buy on dips [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - The basis was 1,351 yuan/ton, with a positive score of +0.5, indicating a strengthening basis. The monthly spread of Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 was - 50 yuan/ton, with a score of +0, showing little change. The spinning immediate profit was - 1,859 yuan/ton, with a score of +0, indicating a decrease in profit. The Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 257 yuan/ton, with a score of +1, indicating strong prices in the production area. The FC index M 1% was 12,445 yuan/ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty was 13,633 yuan/ton, with a score of - 0.5, indicating that the domestic valuation was relatively high compared to the international market. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - For the unilateral strategy, the recommendation is to buy on dips, driven by the reduction of the new - year planting area and good macro - expectations [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis** - The report presents the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract over the years [25]. - **Import Profit** - It shows the trends of the 1% tariff internal - external spread and the sliding - scale duty internal - external spread [27]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread** - The trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread and the 5 - 9 spread are provided [29]. - **Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit** - The trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit are presented [31]. - **Foreign Market Spread** - The trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff are shown [35]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production** - The processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton are presented [39]. - **Cotton Import Volume** - The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton are shown [41]. - **US Export Contract Quantity to China** - The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China are presented [43]. - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume** - The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn are shown [45]. - **Downstream Startup Rate** - The startup rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented [48]. - **National Sales Progress** - The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown [51]. - **Cotton Inventory** - The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the monthly inventory of commercial + industrial cotton are presented [53]. - **Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory** - The cotton inventory and yarn inventory of spinning mills are presented [55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation** - The proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought and the cotton good - quality rate are presented [59]. - **US Production Situation** - The bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton are presented [61]. - **US Yield and Planting Area** - The predicted yield and planting area of US cotton are presented [64]. - **US Export Contract Progress** - The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton are presented [66]. - **US Export Shipment Volume** - The annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton are presented [68]. - **US Cotton Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio** - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton are presented [69]. - **Brazilian Yield and Planting Area** - The planting area and yield of Brazilian cotton are presented [71]. - **Brazilian Export Volume** - The predicted and monthly export volumes of Brazilian cotton are presented [73]. - **Brazilian Cotton Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio** - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton are presented [74]. - **Indian Yield and Planting Area** - The planting area and yield of Indian cotton are presented [76]. - **Indian Consumption and Import - Export** - The consumption, import, and export volumes of Indian cotton are presented [78]. - **Indian Cotton Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio** - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are presented [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) continuing to rise is relatively high. The supply in the new year is tightening, the commercial inventory has turned downward, and the reduction in the comprehensive tariff calculation has boosted exports. However, two major risks should be noted: the implementation of the new US tariff policy may change the global cotton trade pattern, and the continuous increase in Brazilian cotton supply may suppress the upward movement of the outer - market prices, and the large price difference between the inner and outer markets will limit the upward space of Zhengmian. [1][30] - The USDA February supply - demand monthly report has a bearish impact, but the outlook forum has released bullish signals. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, demand to increase, and ending inventory to decline in the new year. The market is waiting for a clear signal from the demand side, and the overall situation is bullish with limited downward space. [2][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In February, Zhengmian fluctuated slightly and then broke through to the upside. After the Spring Festival, boosted by international market news, it broke through the previous trading range and reached a maximum of 15,665 yuan/ton. [3] - The international cotton market first declined and then rose in February. At the beginning of February, US cotton was weak, reaching a minimum of 62.86 cents/pound. After the USDA outlook forum released a tightening forecast for the new - year international cotton market supply - demand situation and the weak US dollar provided support, US cotton rose to a maximum of 66.38 cents/pound. [3] 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis 3.2.1 Commercial and Industrial Inventory - In January 2026, the domestic cotton inventory showed the characteristics of "commercial de - stocking and industrial restocking", with a more prominent differentiation in the inventory structure. As of February 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, a decrease of 285,000 tons from 5.7887 million tons on January 31. The de - stocking pace in Xinjiang was significantly faster than that in the inland. The industrial inventory increased moderately from 1.001 million tons at the end of January to 1.0292 million tons in the first half of February. [6] 3.2.2 Price Difference between Domestic and International Cotton - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has been widening with a pattern of "strong domestic and weak international". As of February 25, the duty - paid cost of medium - quality imported cotton within the quota (1% tariff) was about 12,782 yuan/ton, 3,547 yuan/ton lower than the price of domestic 3128B cotton. The duty - paid cost of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was about 13,840 yuan/ton, 2,489 yuan/ton lower than domestic cotton, and the price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton compared with before the Spring Festival. The expected decrease in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton, the impact of Brazilian cotton exports on the outer - market, and the strong purchasing intention of domestic textile enterprises after the Spring Festival are the main driving factors. The price difference expansion has opened the import profit window, and China's cotton imports in the 2026/27 season are expected to increase to 1.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.0%. In the short term, the increase in imported cotton arrivals may suppress the upward movement of the inner - market, but in the long - term, the price difference is expected to narrow to within 2,000 yuan/ton. [11] 3.2.3 Downstream Market - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in domestic textile enterprises was in an orderly manner, with the start - up rate showing the characteristics of "leading in Xinjiang, following in East China, and lagging in South China". As of February 20, the start - up rate of textile enterprises was 18.7%, and as of February 13, the start - up rate of weaving enterprises was 14%. The release of downstream demand needs to be verified. Spinning enterprises are still cautious in restocking, and the "peak season" orders in March and April have not been fully realized. The finished product inventory of weaving enterprises has increased, and the inventory of weaving enterprises is at the second - highest level in five years. [13][15] 3.2.4 Tariff Policy - Since January 2026, the US tariff policy on Chinese textile and clothing has improved marginally, with the comprehensive tariff level dropping from 18.2% to 15.7%, covering intermediate products such as pure cotton yarn and grey cloth and household textile products, which directly reduces the export cost of enterprises. In the long run, the improvement of the tariff policy is expected to increase the export amount of cotton textiles in 2026, but factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and the release of production capacity of Southeast Asian competitors may still restrict the recovery of exports. [18] 3.3 International Market Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Report - The USDA February supply - demand report shows that in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 92,000 tons to 26.096 million tons, consumption decreased by 44,000 tons to 25.847 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 136,000 tons to 16.353 million tons. The core change in the supply side is concentrated in China, and the main feature on the demand side is the reduction in consumption in Pakistan. [22] 3.3.2 US Cotton Exports - In the 2025/26 season, the total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0507 million tons, accounting for 79% of the predicted total export volume for the year (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.0358 million tons, accounting for 51% of the total signed volume for the year. The signing volume has declined slightly, with a significant decline in Vietnam's signing, while signing in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan has continued to grow. The overall shipment rhythm is stable. The signing and shipment of Pima cotton have remained stable, and the cumulative signing progress is currently slow, but it is expected to accelerate in the future. [25] 3.3.3 US Trade Policy - Since 2025, the US has shifted its textile and clothing trade policy towards South Asia from high - pressure suppression to targeted concessions and raw - material binding, aiming to reshape the global cotton - textile supply chain centered on US cotton. In February 2026, the US reached tariff agreements with Bangladesh and India, reducing the benchmark tariff rate and setting up a zero - tariff mechanism for using US cotton, which will significantly enhance the export competitiveness of South Asian textiles, lock in the long - term demand for US cotton, and weaken the substitution space of Indian and Brazilian cotton. [29] 3.4 Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - For the domestic market, Zhengmian is likely to continue rising. Operators are advised to make long - term layouts based on the fundamentals, pay attention to the progress of domestic resumption of work, US cotton export sales data, and the implementation of tariff policies. The main operation idea is to buy on dips, with the upper - limit pressure reference at 16,000 yuan/ton. [1][30] - For the international market, although the USDA February supply - demand report is bearish, the outlook forum has released bullish signals. The overall situation is bullish with limited downward space. The operation suggestion is to adopt a bullish trading strategy for Zhengmian. [2][30][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, affected by the significant fluctuations in the commodity market, Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating widely at a high level. In the medium to long term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new season and the positive macro - expectations in the future, there is still room for cotton prices to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information** - From January 22nd to January 29th, the US current - year cotton export sales were 57,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.8296 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 202,600 tons. The export to China in that week was 8,300 tons, with cumulative exports of 105,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58,500 tons [9]. - As of the week of January 23rd, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [9]. - In January, the forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The US production forecast was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December forecast, with export estimates unchanged and the inventory - to - consumption ratio at 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease. Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons, India's production was adjusted down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's production was adjusted up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [9]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a 40,000 - ton year - on - year increase. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a 1.56 - million - ton year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - The basis was 1,485 yuan/ton, showing a strengthening trend. The Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 140 yuan/ton, with little change. The spinning immediate profit was - 1,623 yuan/ton, indicating a decrease in profit. The Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 376 yuan/ton, with little change. The FC index M 1% was 12,485 yuan/ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty was 13,664 yuan/ton, with a relatively high domestic premium [10]. - The overall assessment suggested paying attention to the opportunity of low - buying [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips, driven by the reduction of the new - season planting area and positive macro - expectations [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis** - The report presents the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract over multiple years [27]. - **Import Profit** - The trends of the 1% tariff internal - external price difference and the sliding - scale duty internal - external price difference are shown [29]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread** - The trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread and the 5 - 9 spread are presented [31]. - **Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit** - The trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit are shown [33]. - **External Market Spread** - The trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff are presented [37]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production** - The processing and inspection quantity of cotton in China and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton are presented through charts [41]. - **Cotton Import Volume** - The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of cotton in China are shown [43]. - **US Export Contract Quantity to China** - The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China are presented [46]. - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume** - The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of cotton yarn in China are shown [48]. - **Downstream Operating Rate** - The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented [51]. - **National Sales Progress** - The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown [54]. - **Cotton Inventory** - The weekly commercial inventory of cotton in China and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are presented [56]. - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory** - The cotton inventory and yarn inventory of spinning mills are shown [58]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation** - The proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought and the cotton good - quality rate are presented [62]. - **US Production Situation** - The bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton are shown [64]. - **US Production and Planting Area** - The production forecast and planting area of US cotton are presented [65]. - **US Export Contract Progress** - The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year are shown [67]. - **US Export Shipment Volume** - The annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton are presented [69]. - **US Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio** - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton are shown [70]. - **Brazil Production and Planting Area** - The planting area and production of Brazilian cotton are presented [72]. - **Brazil Export Volume** - The export volume forecast and monthly export volume of Brazilian cotton are shown [74]. - **Brazil Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio** - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton are shown [75]. - **India Production and Planting Area** - The planting area and production of Indian cotton are presented [77]. - **India Consumption and Import - Export** - The consumption, import, and export volumes of Indian cotton are shown [79]. - **India Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio** - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are shown [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The January USDA report is neutral, and the recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton mainly depends on the domestic market. Affected by the expected reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang and the better - than - expected downstream operation rate in the off - season, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. However, after the price reached a high level, the short - term volatility increased. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: In January, the predicted global cotton production for the 2025/26 season is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December prediction and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December prediction and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous year. The predicted US production is 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December prediction. The export estimate remains unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production estimate remains at 4.08 million tons; India's production is reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production is increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. Brazil exported 450,000 tons of raw cotton in December, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year and 50,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, exports to China in December were 146,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year and 40,000 tons month - on - month. As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, with cumulative export sales of 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year. Among them, exports to China in that week were 13,600 tons, with cumulative exports of 85,300 tons, a decrease of 71,200 tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Wait for a callback and then go long [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is 1323 yuan/ton, showing a strengthening trend; the Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 155 yuan/ton, with little change; the spinning immediate profit is - 1251 yuan/ton, indicating a decrease in profit; the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread is 485 yuan/ton, with little change; the FC index M 1% is 12582 yuan/ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty is 13722 yuan/ton, with a relatively high domestic premium. The overall recommendation is to wait for a callback and then go long [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For the unilateral strategy, the recommendation is to go long after a callback, driven by the reduction in the new - year planting area and good macro - expectations [11]. 2. Spread Trend Review - **Spot Price and Basis**: The report provides the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract from 2022 - 2026 [24][25]. - **Import Profit**: It shows the trends of the 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty internal - external price differences from 2022 - 2026 [26][27]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread**: It presents the trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads from 2022 - 2026 [28][29]. - **Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit**: It shows the trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit from 2022 - 2026 [30][31]. - **External Market Spread**: It includes the trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff from 2022 - 2026 [34][35]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: It shows the trends of China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price from 2021 - 2026 [38][39]. - **Cotton Import Volume**: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes from 2020 - 2025 [40][41]. - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: It shows the trends of the US cumulative and weekly export contract quantities to China from 2021 - 2026 [43][44]. - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: It presents the trends of China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes from 2021 - 2026 [45][46]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the trends of the spinning mill and weaving mill operating rates from 2022 - 2026 [48][49]. - **National Sales Progress**: It presents the trends of the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City from 2021 - 2026 [51][52]. - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the trends of China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly commercial + industrial inventory from 2021 - 2026 [53][54]. - **Spinning Mill Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory**: It presents the trends of the spinning mill's cotton and yarn inventories from 2022 - 2026 [55][56]. 4. International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: It shows the trends of the proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought and the cotton good - quality rate from 2022 - 2026 [59][60]. - **US Production Situation**: It presents the trends of the US cotton bi - weekly processing volume and cumulative processing volume from 2021 - 2026 [61][62]. - **US Production and Planting Area**: It shows the trends of the US cotton production estimate and planting area from 2021 - 2026 [63][64]. - **US Export Contract Progress**: It presents the trends of the US current - year cumulative and weekly export contract quantities from 2021 - 2026 [65][66]. - **US Export Shipment Volume**: It shows the trends of the US annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes from 2021 - 2026 [67][68]. - **Brazil Production and Planting Area**: It presents the trends of Brazil's cotton planting area and production from 2009 - 2023 [72][73]. - **Brazil Export Volume**: It shows the trends of Brazil's cotton export volume estimate and monthly export volume from 2021 - 2025 [75][76]. - **India Production and Planting Area**: It presents the trends of India's cotton planting area, production, consumption, import and export volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2021 - 2026 [79][80][81][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price in 2026 is expected to show a range - bound oscillation. The international cotton supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to be loose, and the demand remains unoptimistic. The cotton supply and demand in China in the 2025/26 season are likely to be strong. Due to sufficient supply both internationally and domestically, there is a lack of upward drivers for cotton prices, but the downside space is limited. The cotton futures of both domestic and international markets are expected to continue the range - bound oscillation trend of 2025. [2][85][86] - It is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy, combined with on - exchange and off - exchange option operations. [3][86] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Cotton Futures Market Review - In 2025, most of the time, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) cotton futures traded within a narrow range of 13,200 - 14,000 yuan/ton. The correlation between CZCE cotton futures and ICE cotton futures was generally low in 2025, and the pricing of domestic cotton futures became more independent. The correlation between CZCE cotton futures and the Shanghai Composite Index was high at certain stages in 2025, indicating that the CZCE cotton futures were affected by external market sentiment. The basis of domestic cotton in 2025 was generally strong. [5][6] 2. 2026 Global Cotton Market Supply and Demand Outlook 2.1 2026 Global Cotton Market Supply - The global cotton supply in 2026 is expected to be loose. The global cotton output in the 2025/26 season is at a relatively high level, mainly due to the significant increase in cotton production in China and Brazil for the second consecutive year. The supply of major cotton - exporting countries is expected to remain stable, but Brazil and the United States face greater export pressure. [13][14][24] - The planting intentions of major cotton - producing countries in 2026 need attention. Brazil's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season is not expected to decrease, but if there is inventory backlog, it may affect future planting enthusiasm. The cotton - to - grain ratio in the United States is at a historical low, and U.S. cotton exports may affect the 2026 cotton planting area. India's cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to be slightly reduced, and it is necessary to pay attention to its textile and clothing exports and cotton imports. [29][35][40] 2.2 2026 Global Cotton Market Demand - The global cotton consumption outlook remains unoptimistic. The USDA estimates that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.88 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the 2024/25 season. The global textile and clothing trade volume in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, but there is a risk of a decline in global trade volume. The direct cotton demand of major textile - producing countries is restricted by weak terminal demand and operational difficulties of textile enterprises. [44][48][50] 3. 2026 China Cotton Market Supply and Demand Outlook 3.1 2026 China Cotton Supply - The total cotton supply in China in 2026 is expected to be sufficient. China's cotton output in 2025 increased significantly for the second consecutive year. The cotton and cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase slightly. The initial inventory of cotton in the new season is low, and the supply pressure is postponed to after March 2026. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to remain stable. [57][58][61] 3.2 2026 China Cotton Consumption - The terminal textile and clothing consumption situation is not optimistic, but the direct cotton demand for textile production is expected to be stable. The continuous release of new textile production capacity will support the domestic cotton demand, but attention should be paid to the profit and inventory status of textile enterprises. [66][67][76]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are experiencing weak fluctuations, with a slight decline observed in recent trading sessions [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Futures Market Overview - On December 8, the ICE cotton futures opened at 63.91 cents per pound and are currently at 63.92 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%. The intraday high reached 64.00 cents per pound, while the low dipped to 63.85 cents per pound [1]. - On December 5, the ICE cotton futures had an opening price of 64.03 cents per pound, peaked at 64.42 cents, and closed at 63.90 cents, marking a decline of 0.31% [2]. Group 2: Cotton Market Data - As of December 5, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 5,490 cotton futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 70 receipts compared to the previous trading day [2]. - By December 4, the cumulative certified inspection volume of the new cotton year in the country reached 4.6436 million tons [2]. - According to the USDA report, for the week of October 17-23, 2025, the net export contracts for U.S. upland cotton were 30,100 tons, a decrease of 24.4% from the previous week and down 22.9% from the four-week average. The shipment volume for the same period was 39,600 tons, which represents a 9.4% increase from the previous week and a 21.5% increase from the four-week average [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points as expected, but due to overly dovish expectations, commodities and stocks fell after the rate cut. Entering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the operating rates of the downstream industry chain are gradually increasing but still lower than the same period in previous years. With no new supply, the current domestic cotton inventory is at a historically low level, but there are expectations of increased production in the long - term. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the December contract of US cotton futures closed at 66.3 cents per pound, down 0.46 cents per pound from the previous week, a decline of 0.69%. The spread between December and March of US cotton weakened slightly, at -2 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fell. As of Friday, the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,720 yuan per ton, down 140 yuan per ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.01%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,319 yuan per ton, down 71 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis strengthened, at 1,528 yuan per ton, up 161 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between January and May of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, at 15 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 66.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and down 5.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and down 14.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.14 million tons, 520,000 tons less than the same period last year. In August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China imported 590,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.05 million tons [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: After the Fed's rate cut, short - term commodities and stocks fell. The current fundamentals show that although the operating rates of the downstream industry chain are increasing, they are still lower than in previous years. The domestic cotton inventory is low, but there are expectations of increased production in the long - term. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On September 19, 2025, the basis was 1,528 yuan per ton, the spread between January and May of Zhengzhou cotton was 15 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was -1,107 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 203 yuan per ton, and the FC index M with 1% tariff was 13,457 yuan per ton, and with sliding - scale duty was 14,258 yuan per ton. The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate [10]. 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton contract spreads, and external market spreads, to show the spread trends of different periods and varieties [24][26][28] 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Production and Imports**: The report shows the data and trends of China's cotton processing, import volume, US exports to China, and cotton yarn imports through various charts [38][40][43][45] - **Downstream Operations**: It presents the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills, national sales progress, cotton inventory, and spinning mill raw material and finished - product inventory through charts [48][50][53][55] 4. International Market Situation - **US Market**: The report shows the US cotton planting situation, production, yield, planting area, export signing progress, export shipping volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through various charts [59][61][63][67][69] - **Brazilian Market**: It presents Brazil's cotton planting area, yield, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through charts [72][75][78] - **Indian Market**: The report shows India's cotton planting area, yield, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through charts [80][83][86]

Core Insights - Brazil's cotton exports in August 2023 totaled 77,463.39 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [1] - The average daily export volume for August 2023 was 3,688.73 tons, down 27% compared to the previous year [1] - In August 2022, Brazil exported 111,764.74 tons of cotton, with an average daily export volume of 5,080.22 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures prices continued to fluctuate, with the main contract closing at 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - From August 9-11, the basis for spot Australian cotton LM1-5/32 (strength 29-30 GPT) was approximately 3.5-4.5 cents/pound, while LM1-3/16 (strength 30 GPT) had a basis of 6-6.75 cents/pound. The basis for bonded Australian cotton M1-5/32 (strength 28/29) at major ports in China was generally around 13.5-15 cents/pound [2] - In the first week of August, Brazil exported 17,242.63 tons of cotton, with an average daily export volume of 2,873.77 tons, a decrease of 43% compared to the average daily export volume for the entire month of August 2024. The total export volume for August 2024 was 111,764.74 tons, with the decline attributed to reduced market demand and price competition [2] - As of the week ending August 8, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.7%, down 0.9 percentage points week-on-week and down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. The weaving mill operating rate was 37%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week and down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. Weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.01 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week-on-week and flat year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Futures noted that the new cotton growth is generally normal, with recent weather conditions having limited impact on cotton growth. The market has strong expectations for a bumper crop in 2025, which is suppressing the prices of distant contracts. Demand remains under pressure, with low operating rates in textile enterprises, high grey fabric inventory, insufficient export orders, and no significant improvement in domestic consumption. Although some textile companies expect a temporary recovery in late August, overall market confidence is lacking. The current cotton prices face pressure from above and support from below, with the market lacking core drivers and awaiting further news [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures indicated that cotton prices are currently maintaining a range-bound trend. On the supply side, cotton supply is relatively tight, and the spot basis remains firm. Future attention is needed on whether additional sliding tax quota will be issued. On the demand side, there are marginal improvements in downstream industries, but overall confidence remains low. Macroeconomic factors suggest that short-term tariff impacts may weaken, and attention should be paid to policies against "involution" affecting bulk commodities. Overall, Zheng cotton may experience short-term fluctuations with potential upward movement, but the upper space is expected to be limited, and medium-term pressure is anticipated from the new cotton harvest [3]