"从2025年第四季度开始，香港楼市迎来了重要拐点，此前的底部增持阶段已结束，2026年或将进入明 确的上涨期，预计2026年香港住宅房价的涨幅将超过10%。"1月20日下午，中原集团创始人施永青在接 受《每日经济新闻》记者(以下简称NBD)采访时表示。 事实上，在2025年年底，施永青名下的基金会，也开始在香港加码置业。截至2025年12月底，施永青名 下基金会累计斥资逾1.3亿港元，购入香港9个住宅单位。 香港楼市已度过底部阶段 NBD：2025年年底，您名下的基金会斥资1.3亿港元在香港置业，您个人也参与了大额物业投资，这背 后的考量是什么？香港楼市是否已迎来最佳布局时机？ 施永青：香港楼市向好确实会对大湾区的其他内地城市产生一定正面连锁反应，但这种传导效应有限。 香港楼市不仅吸引本地置业者，也受内地投资者青睐，这是其核心竞争优势。 内地楼市的核心矛盾是开发过度，市场进入漫长消化期。加之部分房企的流动性危机，进一步削弱了市 场信心。尽管国家出台了降低首付比例、下调房贷利率等支持政策，但扭转开发过度带来的后遗症，还 需要时间。因此，香港楼市回暖的正面影响，无法抵消内地楼市自身的不利因素。 施永青：基金会1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current sentiment among homebuyers in Guangzhou is mixed, with many choosing to wait and observe the market due to pessimism about future price trends and economic conditions [11][12][27]. Group 1: Buyer Sentiment - Many potential buyers are hesitant to purchase homes, expressing concerns about falling prices and the overall economic outlook [11][12]. - A significant number of individuals are opting to delay their home-buying decisions, indicating a lack of urgency and a preference to wait for better market conditions [6][8][11]. - The prevailing attitude among those who are not buying is one of caution, with fears that prices will continue to decline after their purchase [12][27]. Group 2: Motivations for Buying - Some buyers believe that the current market presents a unique opportunity to purchase at lower prices, viewing it as a good time to enter the market [15][19]. - Buyers are motivated by personal needs, such as upgrading for better living conditions or securing properties for their children, rather than solely focusing on investment returns [16][25][27]. - There is a belief among certain buyers that real estate will eventually appreciate again, as they see the cyclical nature of the market [15][19]. Group 3: Economic Perspectives - Buyers are increasingly viewing real estate as a necessary consumption good rather than just an investment, emphasizing the importance of living quality and personal fulfillment [20][23]. - The sentiment that housing demand remains strong regardless of price fluctuations is prevalent, with many asserting that their need for housing will not diminish due to market conditions [27][28]. - Some buyers are willing to leverage debt to purchase homes, viewing it as a strategy to combat inflation and secure assets in uncertain economic times [23].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of Beike's latest earnings report is better than expected, with significant revenue growth, but the persistent issue of increasing revenue without profit remains unresolved [1][12][46]. Group 1: Existing Home Business - The GTV (Gross Transaction Value) of the existing home business increased by 28% year-on-year, outperforming the expected 24% growth, indicating the continued impact of policy benefits [1][15]. - Revenue from the existing home business grew by 20%, but this was lower than the GTV growth, reflecting a decline in the comprehensive commission rate [1][17]. - The comprehensive commission rate for existing homes decreased by 1.4 basis points to 1.18%, attributed to a higher proportion of non-self-operated business and potential commission discounts to stimulate transactions [1][17]. Group 2: New Home Business - The new home business saw a remarkable growth in transaction value, with a year-on-year increase of 53%, significantly exceeding market expectations [2][20]. - However, the revenue growth rate for new homes was lower than expected due to a decline in the comprehensive realization rate, which fell by 20 basis points [2][24]. - The new home business's revenue increased by 64% year-on-year, but the growth rate showed a deceleration compared to the previous quarter [2][24]. Group 3: Secondary Business Lines - The secondary business lines, including home decoration, rental, and home services, generated total revenue of 8.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39%, surpassing expectations [3][27]. - The rental business experienced a significant growth of 94% year-on-year, indicating a strong market position despite a generally weak rental market [3][29]. - The home decoration business, while improving, still underperformed expectations with a revenue growth of 22% [3][29]. Group 4: Profitability Issues - Despite revenue growth, the adjusted net profit remained nearly flat year-on-year, highlighting the ongoing issue of revenue growth not translating into profit [4][6][34]. - The overall gross profit margin decreased to 20.7%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to rising commission costs and a higher proportion of low-margin rental business [5][37]. - The operating profit margin fell from 3.2% to 2.5%, reflecting the challenges in maintaining profitability amidst rising costs [5][43]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The performance of Beike is significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions in the real estate market, making future predictions challenging [12][13]. - Long-term prospects for Beike remain positive due to its dominant market position and execution capabilities, despite short-term volatility [12][13]. - Current valuation corresponds to an adjusted net profit multiple of approximately 16-17x PE, with potential for higher multiples if profit growth resumes [12][13].