Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423) is expected to benefit from the continuous expansion of the industry scale, supported by its leading position and strategic nationwide layout, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 showing significant growth [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Beike achieved operating revenue of 72.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, demonstrating market competitiveness despite pressure in the real estate market [1] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%, primarily due to a decline in gross margin from 25.3% to 21.4% [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, Beike's store count increased by 27.3% year-on-year to 61,393, and the number of agents reached 546,000, up 14.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing expansion [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The existing housing business saw a transaction volume (GTV) increase of 5.8% year-on-year to 505.6 billion yuan, with net income of 6 billion yuan, down 3.6% from the previous year [2] - The new housing business experienced a GTV decline of 13.7% to 196.3 billion yuan, with net income of 6.6 billion yuan, down 14.1% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in the commodity housing market [2] - The home decoration business reported net income of 4.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [2] - Rental services generated net income of 5.7 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 45.3%, attributed to the growth in the "worry-free rental" model [2] - Emerging businesses and others reported net income of 400 million yuan, down from 500 million yuan in the same period last year [2] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - In Q3 2025, Beike's share buyback amounted to 281 million USD, marking the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [3] - By the end of Q3 2025, the total buyback for the year reached 675 million USD, a 15.7% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - Since initiating the buyback in September 2022, Beike has repurchased approximately 2.3 billion USD worth of shares, representing 11.5% of the total shares before the buyback [3]

Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423) is expected to benefit from the continuous expansion of the industry scale, supported by its strategic nationwide layout and platform advantages, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 5.38 billion, 6.54 billion, and 7.29 billion CNY respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Revenue Growth and Market Position - In the first three quarters of 2025, Beike achieved operating revenue of 72.39 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, demonstrating its market competitiveness despite pressure in the real estate market [2] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.91 billion CNY, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin from 25.3% to 21.4% [2] - As of the end of Q3, the number of Beike stores increased by 27.3% year-on-year to 61,393, and the number of agents reached 546,000, up 14.5% year-on-year, indicating overall scale expansion [2] Transaction Volume and Business Performance - The existing housing business saw a transaction volume (GTV) increase of 5.8% year-on-year to 505.6 billion CNY, with net income of 6 billion CNY, down 3.6% from the previous year [3] - The new housing business experienced a GTV decline of 13.7% to 196.3 billion CNY, with net income of 6.6 billion CNY, down 14.1% year-on-year due to a slowdown in the commodity housing market [3] - The home decoration business generated net income of 4.3 billion CNY, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, while rental services saw net income of 5.7 billion CNY, up 45.3% year-on-year, attributed to an increase in housing resources under the "worry-free rental" model [3] - Emerging businesses and others reported net income of 400 million CNY, down from 500 million CNY in the previous year [3] Shareholder Returns and Buyback Strategy - In Q3 2025, Beike's buyback amount reached 281 million USD, the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [4] - By the end of Q3 2025, the total buyback amount for the year reached 675 million USD, a 15.7% increase year-on-year [4] - Since initiating the buyback in September 2022, the company has repurchased approximately 2.3 billion USD worth of shares, representing 11.5% of the total shares before the buyback, reflecting confidence in future development and enhancing shareholder returns [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, primarily driven by the development of its two wings business [1] - The adjusted net profit decreased by 28% year-on-year, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [2] - The existing housing business remained stable, while the new housing business showed a decline in performance [3][4] Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total GTV of 736.7 billion yuan, with revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - The revenue contributions from various segments were as follows: existing housing (26%), new housing (29%), home decoration and furniture (19%), rental services (25%), and emerging businesses (2%) [1] - The two wings business continues to enhance the stability of the company's revenue amid a challenging market environment [1] Profitability Analysis - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.3 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.6% [2] - The gross profit margin was reported at 21.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The contribution profit rates for various segments were: existing housing (38%), new housing (26%), home decoration (23%), rental services (8%), and emerging businesses (5%) [2] Segment Performance - The existing housing business GTV was 505.6 billion yuan, showing a 6% year-on-year increase, while revenue was 6 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year [3] - The new housing business GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% year-on-year decline, with revenue also down 14% [4] - The home decoration and furniture business revenue grew by 2% year-on-year, while rental services saw a significant increase of 45% [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a more pronounced year-on-year decline in revenue for its main business segments in Q4 due to high base effects [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly lowered to 5.4 billion and 7 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating despite the downward adjustments in profit forecasts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in Q3 2025, with net revenue showing a slight increase while net profit experienced a significant decline, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amidst operational adjustments and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved net revenue of 23.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit was 747 million yuan, down 36.1% year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 1.286 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 27.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company's total GTV for Q3 2025 was 736.7 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The company continued to optimize operational efficiency, with operating expenses decreasing by 1.8% year-on-year and 6.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The decline in profit was attributed to a lower proportion of high-margin existing and new housing business revenues, with overall gross margin decreasing by 1.3 percentage points to 21.4% [1]. Group 3: Business Segments - The existing housing business GTV grew to 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, but net revenue fell by 3.6% to 5.991 billion yuan due to a higher proportion of GTV from agents [1]. - The new housing business GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year, with net revenue declining by 14.1% to 6.639 billion yuan, reflecting a similar trend to the national market [2]. - The "two wings" business segments, including home decoration and rental services, showed profitability improvements, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and rental income at 5.727 billion yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 94.665 billion yuan, 92.631 billion yuan, and 96.035 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.3%, -2.1%, and +3.7% respectively [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 6.083 billion yuan, 7.146 billion yuan, and 8.095 billion yuan for the same period, with respective year-on-year changes of -15.5%, +17.5%, and +13.3% [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][5]. Core Views - The company reported a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, primarily driven by the development of its two wings business [10][5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 28% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a decline in profitability despite revenue growth [2][5]. - The company is expected to face a significant year-on-year revenue decline in Q4 due to high base effects, but the two wings business is anticipated to stabilize overall revenue [10][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total transaction value (GTV) of 736.7 billion yuan, flat year-on-year and down 16% quarter-on-quarter. Revenue was 23.1 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year but down 11% quarter-on-quarter [10][5]. - The revenue contributions from various segments were as follows: existing home business (26%), new home business (29%), home decoration and furniture (19%), rental services (25%), and emerging businesses (2%) [10][5]. Profitability Analysis - The adjusted net profit margin was 5.6%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 21.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - The contribution profit margin for the existing home business was 39.0%, reflecting a slight decrease, while the rental services business, which saw a revenue increase of 45%, had a low contribution profit margin of 8.7% [2][5]. Business Segment Insights - The existing home business maintained stability with a GTV of 505.6 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, while revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year [3][27]. - The new home business reported a GTV of 196.3 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, with a market share of 12% [4][47]. - The home decoration and furniture business generated 4.3 billion yuan in revenue, a 2% increase year-on-year, while the rental services business saw significant growth [4][61]. Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting adjusted net profits of 5.4 billion yuan and 7.0 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 1.53 yuan and 1.97 yuan [5][81].

Core Viewpoint - Beike's Q3 2025 financial report shows a revenue increase of 2.1% year-on-year to RMB 231 billion, but net profit has significantly declined by 36.1%, indicating a situation of "increased revenue without increased profit" [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 net income reached RMB 231 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [4]. - Net profit was RMB 7.47 billion, down 36.1% year-on-year; adjusted net profit decreased by 27.8% to RMB 12.86 billion [2][4]. - Gross profit for Q3 was RMB 49 billion, a decline of 3.9% year-on-year, with gross margin dropping from 22.7% to 21.4% [1][2]. - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled RMB 557 billion as of the end of Q3 [4]. Core Business Progress - The company faces a profit dilemma despite revenue growth, with the existing housing business being a major drag on profits. Although GTV increased by 5.8%, net income from this segment fell by 3.6% [2]. - The new housing business also showed weakness, with both GTV and revenue declining by over 13% [2]. Rental Business Highlights - The rental service emerged as a bright spot, with Q3 revenue increasing by 45.3% to RMB 57 billion, contributing over RMB 1 billion in profit for the first time in Q3 [3][4]. - However, costs in the rental business rose significantly, from RMB 38 billion to RMB 52 billion, an increase of 38.8%, indicating a scale-for-profit model [3]. - The home decoration and furniture business remained stable, with revenue of RMB 43 billion, roughly unchanged from the previous year, and profit rising from RMB 13.16 billion to RMB 13.76 billion [3].

Core Viewpoint - Beike Holdings reported its Q3 2025 financial results, showing a slight increase in net revenue but a significant decline in net profit compared to the previous year [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Beike's net revenue was 23.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [4]. - The net profit for the same period was 747 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36.1% [1][4]. - Adjusted net profit was 1.286 billion RMB, down 27.8% year-on-year [1]. Transaction Volume - The total transaction volume for Q3 2025 was 736.7 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year [4]. - The transaction volume for existing homes was 505.6 billion RMB, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year [4]. - New home transaction volume was 196.3 billion RMB, a decrease of 13.7% year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from existing home business was 6 billion RMB, down 3.6% year-on-year, with commission income at 4.8 billion RMB [4]. - Revenue from new home business was 6.6 billion RMB, down 14.1% year-on-year [4]. - Revenue from home rental services increased significantly to 5.7 billion RMB, a growth of 45.3% year-on-year [4]. - Non-real estate business revenue accounted for 45% of total revenue in this quarter [4]. Gross Profit and Margin - Gross profit for Q3 2025 was 4.9 billion RMB, a decline of 3.9% year-on-year [5]. - Gross margin decreased from 22.7% in the same period last year to 21.4% in Q3 2025 [5]. Operational Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, the number of stores was 61,393, an increase of 27.3% year-on-year [6]. - The number of active agents was 545,511, up 14.5% year-on-year [6]. - Monthly active users averaged 49.3 million, an increase from 46.2 million in the previous year [6]. Cost Structure - Total operating costs for Q3 2025 were 18.1 billion RMB, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year [6]. - Costs associated with rental services rose significantly to 5.2 billion RMB, a 38.8% increase year-on-year [6]. Cash Position - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a total cash and cash equivalents balance of 55.7 billion RMB [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Beike has successfully navigated the challenges of the real estate market through a long-term survival philosophy, focusing on building foundational capabilities and restoring industry trust, even during market adjustments [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a "K-shaped recovery," characterized by significant differentiation between cities and even within the same city, marking the end of the previous era of uniform price increases [5]. - Beike's performance in Q2 2025 was notable, with a total transaction volume (GTV) of 878.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and net revenue of 26 billion yuan, up 11.3% [6][8]. Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - Beike's stock business has become a stable anchor, with Q2 GTV for existing homes reaching 583.5 billion yuan and net revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, showcasing its resilience during market fluctuations [10]. - The company has adopted a light-asset platform model, with 58,664 active stores and nearly 500,000 active agents by mid-2025, emphasizing efficiency through scientific management and AI tools [11][12]. - Beike's "One Body, Three Wings" strategy aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem covering the entire housing lifecycle, with significant contributions from home decoration, rental, and quality development services [13][15]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - Beike has executed a stock buyback plan, repurchasing 2.5 billion USD worth of shares in Q2 2025, with a total buyback amount reaching 2.02 billion USD since the plan's initiation in September 2022, representing 10.3% of the total share capital [22][23]. - The increase in buyback authorization from 3 billion to 5 billion USD indicates a long-term capital allocation strategy, reflecting management's confidence in the company's value [25][26]. Group 4: Long-term Vision and Market Position - Beike's approach to transforming low-frequency real estate transactions into high-frequency interactions through a comprehensive service ecosystem has established a strong platform barrier, enhancing matching efficiency and user engagement [30]. - The company's long-termism philosophy is seen as a key factor in its ability to withstand market fluctuations and achieve sustained growth, providing valuable insights for other low-frequency industries [31].

Core Insights - The company reported a 11% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, primarily driven by the growth in its secondary business segments [1] - The total transaction value (GTV) reached 878.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% [1] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 32% year-on-year but improved by 30% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a mixed performance in profitability [1] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue contributions from various segments are as follows: existing housing (26%), new housing (33%), home decoration and furnishing (18%), rental services (22%), and emerging businesses (2%) [1] - The existing housing business saw a transaction total of 583.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2] - The new housing business outperformed the market with a transaction total of 255.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [2] Profitability Metrics - The adjusted net profit margin was 7.0%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross profit margin was 21.9%, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.0 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2 percentage points [1] - The contribution profit margin for the existing housing business improved to 39.9%, up 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Business Performance - The company had 61,000 stores and 558,000 agents by the end of Q2 2025, with active store and agent ratios of 97% and 88%, respectively [2] - The home decoration and furnishing business generated 4.6 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 13% [2] - The rental services segment saw a significant revenue increase of 78% year-on-year, totaling 5.7 billion yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, expecting adjusted net profits of 6.3 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The expected earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 are 1.77 yuan and 2.00 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 23.9 and 21.2 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 11% year-on-year in Q2 2025, primarily driven by the growth in its secondary business segments [8][12] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 1.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 32% year-on-year but an increase of 30% quarter-on-quarter [12] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, expecting adjusted net profits of 6.3 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan respectively [83] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a total transaction value (GTV) of 878.7 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, with total revenue of 26 billion yuan [8] - The adjusted net profit margin was 7.0%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [12] Business Segments Performance - The existing housing business contributed a transaction value of 583.5 billion yuan, with a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8% [26] - The new housing business showed a transaction value of 255.4 billion yuan, with a revenue increase of 9% year-on-year [49] - The home decoration and furniture business generated 4.6 billion yuan in revenue, up 13% year-on-year, while the rental service revenue surged by 78% year-on-year [63] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company maintains a market share of 12.5% in the new housing sector, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [49] - The adjusted earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 1.77 yuan and 2.00 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23.9 and 21.2 [83]