Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities continues to warm up, driven by favorable policies and a tailwind effect from previous trends, with significant increases in both new and second-hand housing transactions observed since the beginning of 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first three weeks of 2026, Shenzhen's second-hand housing transactions showed a continuous increase, with recorded volumes reaching 1,115, 1,595, and 1,654 units respectively [2]. - Guangzhou's second-hand housing transactions exceeded 5,000 units in the first 20 days of January 2026, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions surpassed 18,000 units by January 25, 2026, with expectations to exceed 22,000 units for the month [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Beijing's new real estate policy, implemented on December 24, 2025, led to a 33% increase in transaction volume within a month, alongside significant rises in market activity indicators [3]. - Multiple cities, including Tianjin and Nanjing, have also seen strong performances in second-hand housing, with daily transactions reaching levels comparable to peak periods [3]. - A series of favorable policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have been released, including tax reductions and adjustments to housing financing [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market has become the mainstay of current transactions, reflecting more stable market conditions compared to new housing [4]. - The delay of the Spring Festival has led to an earlier release of pent-up demand, contributing to increased activity in the housing market [8]. - There is a noticeable reduction in the bargaining space for second-hand housing prices, with some properties even requiring price increases due to heightened demand [9]. Group 4: Price Trends - The increase in transaction volumes has begun to halt the decline in real estate prices, with reports of narrowing bargaining ranges for second-hand properties in cities like Shanghai and Nanjing [9][10]. - The price index for second-hand residential properties in 15 key cities has risen for five consecutive weeks, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [10]. - Despite the positive trends, caution is advised as the sustainability of demand remains uncertain, particularly in cities lacking population and industrial support [10].

在楼市政策驱动及翘尾行情效应下，热点城市的楼市升温行情仍在延续。 多家机构发布的数据显示，2026年以来，一线城市楼市成交保持高水平，其中二手房交易表现亮眼。同 期，杭州、南京、成都、天津等二线城市楼市也有不错的表现。 根据中原地产研究院统计，今年第三周，重点40城新房成交面积环比上升5%，中原新房来访指数环比 上升2%，来访总量环比上升11%。同期，重点15城二手房周度成交量环比上升9%。 与此同时，21世纪经济报道记者调研发现，多个热点城市二手房议价空间收窄，部分房源甚至需要加价 购买。 1月并非房地产传统旺季，分析人士指出，今年春节假期时间晚于往年，加之近期楼市政策利好频出， 使得2025年末以来的翘尾行情有所延长。对于全年楼市来说，这波回暖行情意义重大。 26城二手房成交量同比上涨21% 深圳市房地产中介协会近期发布数据称，2026年前三周，深圳新房录得量（以合同发起为统计口径）出 现波动，二手房则连续升温，前三周二手房录得量分别达到1115套、1595套、1654套。 自去年下半年以来，深圳二手房月度录得量保持在5000多套的水平，到12月跃升至6000套以上，翘尾行 情显现。有分析人士指出，按照当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen second-hand housing market is experiencing a "tail-end" trend, with transaction volumes increasing significantly, driven by seasonal factors and a shift towards more rational pricing strategies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the second week of 2026, Shenzhen recorded 1,595 second-hand housing transactions, a 43% increase compared to the previous week, attributed to a recovery in volume following the New Year holiday [2]. - The total annual transaction volume for second-hand homes in Shenzhen for 2025 was 56,200 units, a slight increase of 3% year-on-year, while the recorded volume reached 69,800 units, up 4.3% [3]. - The average price of second-hand homes in Shenzhen was approximately 59,000 yuan per square meter in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.3% [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There has been a slowdown in the number of new listings for second-hand homes, with a 10% decrease in weekly new listings since late December 2025 [2][4]. - The proportion of second-hand home transactions has reached 60% of the market, driven by demand from first-time buyers who are sensitive to pricing [3]. - The overall inventory of new homes in Shenzhen decreased to 3.27 million square meters by the end of 2025, the lowest in four years, although the time required for inventory turnover has increased to approximately 15.3 months [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with government efforts aimed at improving the quality and affordability of new housing supply, as well as facilitating the second-hand housing market [7]. - The transaction cycle for second-hand homes has extended, with an average of over 200 days, indicating challenges in selling properties [7]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with expectations for more conservative sales strategies from developers in 2026 [7].

12月15日，记者从深圳市房地产中介协会获悉，上周全市新房（预售+现售）成交1,068套，环比增长 32.3%。其中住宅类别成交757套，环比增长24.5%；二手房（含自助）录得1,619套，环比增长14.1%， 12月份二手房周成交量持续攀升，年末收官有望迎来"翘尾"行情。 从需求端（委买合同）来看，上周市场新增需求量持续小幅增加，环比增长4.4%。 二手房交易数据显示，上周深圳城市价值亮点为：福田区香蜜湖、景田、竹子林和百花片区抗风险性 强。深圳市房地产中介协会根据福田区"二手买卖"录得合同数据，选取二手住宅录得量及录得均价两项 指标，通过均值偏离度分析，绘制出福田片区分布四象限图。该图可直观呈现各片区相对于福田整体均 值的偏离程度，有助于初步评估各片区价值。 具体来看，香蜜湖、景田、竹子林及百花片区位于第一象限，其交易活跃度与价格均高于福田区均值， 一定程度上体现出较强的抗风险能力。在成交房源中，安托山片区均价最高，新洲片区均价最低。 （作者：深圳特区报&读特记者 窦延文） ...