王石又爆狠话！预言中国楼市最终结局：唯有"软着陆" 再看看杭州，余杭区在2025年6月10日发布政策，对购买新建商品住宅的家庭每套补贴4万元，符合条件的人才最高可再获得20万元购房 补贴 。萧山区则在2025年5月31日推出5000万元购房补贴，最高补贴6万元。 对于普通购房者来说，王石的预言到底意味着什么呢？他建议刚需购房者要紧密结合自身实际需求和经济状况，果断做决策；投资购房 者则要谨慎权衡好风险与收益的天平，保证在投资航程中不偏离安全轨道。 不过，王石可不是在唱衰楼市。他所说的"软着陆"，是指在政策引导和市场调节下，房地产市场能够实现平稳过渡，避免"硬着陆"可能 带来的断崖式下跌及由此引发的系统性金融风险。易居研究院的数据也间接印证了这一趋势，2025年第二季度，一线城市房价环比跌幅 已较年初明显收窄，市场正在积极寻找新的平衡点。 国家政策方面，2024年12月24日至25日召开的全国住房城乡建设工作会议就明确提出，2025年要重点抓好持续用力推动房地产市场止跌 回稳等工作。会议强调，要把"四个取消、四个降低、两个增加"各项存量政策和增量政策坚决落实到位，大力支持刚性和改善性住房需 求 。 具体来说，" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate market in China is undergoing a significant adjustment period, which is expected to last 3-5 years, and that those hoping to profit from real estate by 2025 may be disappointed [1][4] - Wang Shi emphasizes that the current situation in China is not akin to Japan's past real estate bubble, citing the country's large population and the availability of policy tools to support the market [3][4] - The market is currently divided, with new home sales declining by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, while second-hand home sales have increased by 11% [5][6] Group 2 - The real estate market is experiencing a significant inventory issue, with 7.7 billion square meters of unsold inventory putting pressure on the industry [5] - First-tier cities are expected to stabilize first, with inventory turnover periods shrinking to under 8 months, while second-tier cities face longer turnover periods of up to 18 months [6] - Buyers are facing stricter loan approvals, with some experiencing significant reductions in loan amounts, leading to increased financial pressure [7][8] Group 3 - The market is characterized by a significant number of price reductions, with some properties seeing drastic price drops as investors offload assets due to financial strain [5][8] - There is a growing sentiment that housing should be viewed as a place to live rather than an investment, indicating a shift in market psychology [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn in 2023, characterized by a sharp decline in both new and second-hand home sales, leading to aggressive price reductions by developers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - New home sales area and sales volume have both dropped significantly, prompting developers to implement drastic promotional strategies, such as offering discounts of up to 20% [1]. - The second-hand housing market is facing an oversupply, with major cities like Chongqing, Chengdu, and Shanghai seeing listings soar to 220,000, 200,000, and 180,000 units respectively from January to June 2023 [1]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The lingering effects of the three-year pandemic have resulted in layoffs and salary cuts, diminishing the purchasing power of potential homebuyers, particularly those looking to upgrade [3]. - A significant decline in the demand from first-time homebuyers is noted, attributed to decreasing marriage rates and changing attitudes towards family planning, alongside a trend of young individuals inheriting properties from previous generations [5]. - The weakening of the real estate investment appeal is evident, with 91% of cities reporting a drop in second-hand home prices as of June, leading investors to sell off properties and further increase market supply [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The trend of price adjustments in the real estate market is deemed irreversible, with expectations of a "soft landing" where prices stabilize but may continue to decline slightly over the coming years [7]. - Potential negative impacts of significant price drops include wealth erosion for multi-property owners, income declines in related industries, reduced local government revenues, and risks to the banking system and deposit safety [7]. - However, if the market can achieve a stable decline and return to reasonable price levels, it may foster a healthier market environment and more stable economic growth, contingent on collaborative efforts from the government, businesses, and individuals [8].