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王石预测的楼市“软着陆”会实现吗?调整还需要3-5年?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 12:35
房子不是股票,是安身立命的地方,2025年想靠它发财的人注定要失望。 王石又说房地产了,这次他说调整要3-5年。每次他一开口,朋友圈里就炸开锅——有人急着卖房,有 人盘算抄底。 说真的,当2025年已经过去大半,我翻看他年初的预言,再看看眼前冷热不均的市场,突然觉得这 位"地产教父"话里藏着的不是预测,而是一剂清醒药。 他提到中国正经历日本30年前的老路时,许多人只看到"泡沫"二字在眼前晃。但你们注意没?王石特意 补了一句:"我们不一样,14亿人口托底,政策工具箱还没掏空呢"。这话里话外,藏着对崩盘论的否 定。 01 泡沫之下:王石的预言藏着什么? 2018年楼市烈火烹油,王石在万科股东大会上抛出"活下去"三个字,台下不少人当笑话听。如今回头一 看,当年高杠杆猛冲的房企尸横遍野,万科却因现金流充足活成了行业标杆。 今年初财富全球论坛上,他再次定调:调整至少3-5年,房企洗牌才刚开始。话音未落,6月杭州某知名 开发商因资金链断裂,旗下三个高端盘瞬间停摆,工地大门被供应商堵得水泄不通。 但王石没唱衰到底。他反复强调"软着陆"的可能性——政策面工具箱正持续释放缓冲空间:4800亿土地 收储资金进场托底,浙江、四川试 ...
房子卖不掉,释放什么信号?楼市真的顶不住?对普通人是福是祸
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 05:50
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn in 2023, characterized by a sharp decline in both new and second-hand home sales, leading to aggressive price reductions by developers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - New home sales area and sales volume have both dropped significantly, prompting developers to implement drastic promotional strategies, such as offering discounts of up to 20% [1]. - The second-hand housing market is facing an oversupply, with major cities like Chongqing, Chengdu, and Shanghai seeing listings soar to 220,000, 200,000, and 180,000 units respectively from January to June 2023 [1]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The lingering effects of the three-year pandemic have resulted in layoffs and salary cuts, diminishing the purchasing power of potential homebuyers, particularly those looking to upgrade [3]. - A significant decline in the demand from first-time homebuyers is noted, attributed to decreasing marriage rates and changing attitudes towards family planning, alongside a trend of young individuals inheriting properties from previous generations [5]. - The weakening of the real estate investment appeal is evident, with 91% of cities reporting a drop in second-hand home prices as of June, leading investors to sell off properties and further increase market supply [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The trend of price adjustments in the real estate market is deemed irreversible, with expectations of a "soft landing" where prices stabilize but may continue to decline slightly over the coming years [7]. - Potential negative impacts of significant price drops include wealth erosion for multi-property owners, income declines in related industries, reduced local government revenues, and risks to the banking system and deposit safety [7]. - However, if the market can achieve a stable decline and return to reasonable price levels, it may foster a healthier market environment and more stable economic growth, contingent on collaborative efforts from the government, businesses, and individuals [8].