期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观月报 人民币兑美元汇率创新高 上海公布楼市新政 20260301 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：黎照锋，从业资格号：F0210135,交易咨询号：Z0000088 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 春节假期过后，外汇市场迎来显著波动，美元指数持续承压下行，人民币对美元汇率延续2025年12月以来的偏强走势，呈 现单边拉升态势。2月26日上午，人民币汇率迎来直线上涨，离岸、在岸 ...

香港地产股温和上涨，截至发稿，新鸿基地产(00016)涨2.49%，报139.8港元；长实集团(01113)涨 1.93%，报47.56港元；恒基地产(00012)涨0.58%，报34.78港元；九龙仓置业(01997)涨0.54%，报26.22港 元。 汇丰研究指出，继香港特区政府当局公布将价值超过1亿港元的住宅物业印花税由4.25%上调至6.5% 后，部分发展商股价于昨日(25日)下跌约2%。该行认为，考虑到板块年初至今的强劲升势，此次股价回 调属健康。该措施的影响应属有限，因为其仅占市场总成交量的0.3%。此举的意图很可能是增加财政 收入，而非打压整体住宅市场。该行预期，香港楼市政策立场将继续有利于地产市场；房地产信托基金 或迎来新机遇。香港本地地产股中，该行偏好新地、恒地及信置，全部给予"买入"评级。 消息面上，2月25日，香港财政司司长陈茂波在香港立法会发表最新《财政预算案》中指出，一亿港元 以上的住宅物业交易印花税税率，将由4.25%调高至6.5%，影响约百分之零点三的住宅物业交易，估计 每年可增加约10亿港元收入。措施将于条例修订草案获通过后，追溯至明日开始生效。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [8] Core Insights - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for increased policy support [5] - In major cities, the transaction volume for new homes has seen a significant decline compared to second-hand homes, indicating weaker demand [4] - The market anticipates that other first-tier cities will follow Beijing's lead in optimizing purchase restrictions after observing declining transaction data [5] Summary by Sections Core Cities - Beijing: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 558 units (up 16.3% year-on-year), while new home transactions averaged 80 units (down 45% year-on-year) [2] - Shanghai: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 609 units (up 10% year-on-year), with new home transactions remaining flat [2] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 201 units (up 68% year-on-year), while new home transactions dropped 57% [3] National Key Cities - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities decreased by 38% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions increased by 9.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [5] - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in leading intermediary firms as the proportion of second-hand home transactions continues to rise, citing companies like I Love My Home [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of a recent statement from a central media outlet regarding the real estate market in 2026, suggesting that significant policy measures may be implemented to revive the market, but the actual impact may be limited and focused on restoring confidence rather than immediate recovery [2][5][6]. Policy Analysis - The phrase "should be fully released" indicates a commitment to provide comprehensive policy support, emphasizing the importance of the real estate sector as a foundational industry for the economy [5]. - Since September 2024, various policies have been enacted, including the cancellation of restrictions and reductions in down payment ratios, with mortgage rates dropping below 3.5%, marking historical lows [5]. - The remaining significant restrictions are primarily in first-tier cities, indicating that while many tools have been utilized, the most impactful measures are yet to be fully implemented [5][6]. Market Sentiment - The central media's statement aims to boost market confidence, which has been severely affected by previous market fluctuations, leading to a lack of willingness among buyers to purchase homes [6]. - Data shows a significant decline in long-term loans for housing, with a year-on-year decrease exceeding 200 billion, reflecting a drop in consumer confidence and willingness to leverage for home purchases [6]. Future Predictions - The expectation for 2026 is that drastic measures, such as fully lifting purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, are unlikely due to potential negative long-term consequences for lower-tier cities [7]. - The approach is expected to be gradual, focusing on easing restrictions in suburban areas and prioritizing certain demographics for home purchasing [7][8]. Economic Context - The core issue affecting the real estate market is not the lack of policy measures but rather the financial insecurity of consumers, leading to a high savings rate of 35% in 2025, the highest in five years [11]. - The government is focusing on increasing income for urban and rural residents as a critical strategy to stimulate consumer spending and confidence in the housing market [11]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while policy announcements can create short-term excitement, genuine recovery in the real estate market will depend on consumers feeling financially secure enough to spend [11].

Industry Analysis: Northeast Real Estate and Construction Key Points Industry Overview - The real estate sector experienced a decline in sales, with total sales area down by 8.7% year-on-year and sales amount down by 12.6% in 2025 [1] - Real estate investment saw a significant drop of 17.2% year-on-year, with new construction and completions decreasing by 20.4% and 18.1% respectively [2] - Funding for real estate also declined, with total funds available down by 13.4% year-on-year and domestic loans decreasing by 7.3% [3] - As of December 2025, the price of second-hand homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to decline, with a decrease of 0.7%, indicating a need for improved market confidence [4] Policy Insights - A recent article in "Qiushi" emphasized the financial attributes of real estate, suggesting that policies should be implemented comprehensively to restore market expectations [5] - The article indicates that more supportive policies for the real estate market are anticipated in 2026, which could provide significant relief [6] Investment Recommendations - The fourth quarter of 2025 showed a substantial year-on-year decline due to high base effects, but the emphasis on the financial role of real estate suggests its irreplaceable macro and microeconomic functions [7] - The expectation of stronger policy support in 2026 is seen as a positive indicator for the market [8]

Macroeconomic Overview - December PMI showed a seasonal rebound, indicating expectations for policy support in the coming year, particularly in the construction sector[2] - December CPI and PPI were 0.8% and -1.9% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[2] - The first batch of special government bonds for 2026, amounting to 62.5 billion yuan, was issued earlier than in 2025, supporting consumer policies[2] Financial Market Performance - From December 29, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the equity market saw a significant increase, with daily trading volume averaging 25,806 billion yuan, up 6,154 billion yuan from the previous period[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.79%[2] Fixed Income Market - Bond yields rose overall during the same period, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 5.1 basis points[2] - The central bank's net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan contributed to a stable and loose funding environment[2] International Market Dynamics - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%[2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.12%, and oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected fundamentals, slower-than-anticipated reserve requirement ratio cuts, and renewed inflation pressures in the U.S.[2]

Group 1 - The real estate market in November continued to show a differentiated trend, with new home prices rising month-on-month while the second-hand housing market remained in a price-for-volume exchange phase [1] - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities across the country was 17,036 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68%. In contrast, the average price of second-hand residential properties was 13,143 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.95% [1] - The supply of new homes remained low, with high-end improvement projects entering the market in core cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Hangzhou, which contributed to the structural increase in new home prices [1] Group 2 - The new home market is experiencing a stable and positive adjustment process, attributed to the high quality of new housing projects and their advantageous locations, which enhance their appreciation potential [2] - Over 560 real estate policies have been introduced across various regions this year, with 37 policies released in November alone, aimed at stabilizing the housing market and promoting home-buying demand [2] - The year-end performance of real estate companies is expected to see an increase in quality new projects in core cities, with new home transaction volumes likely to experience a "year-end tail" effect, although the overall market still faces pressure [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7]. Core Views - Recent data indicates that the year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities has narrowed, while new housing transactions remain under pressure [1][6]. - The market is entering a traditional off-season for transactions, with significant year-on-year declines in new housing sales, while second-hand housing sales are also slowing down [7]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Beijing, the average daily transaction of second-hand homes was 504 units, down 14.5% year-on-year, while new homes saw a 43.3% decline with 85 units sold [4]. - In Shanghai, second-hand homes had an average daily transaction of 756 units, down 15% year-on-year, and new homes saw a 2% decline with 315 units sold [4]. - In Shenzhen, second-hand homes had an average daily transaction of 171 units, down 29%, and new homes saw a significant 77% decline with 64 units sold [5]. - For November (up to the 15th), second-hand home transactions in first-tier cities showed a year-on-year decline of 24%, while new homes declined by 47% [4][5]. Market Trends - The new housing transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 26% year-on-year, with a notable narrowing of the decline compared to the previous week [6]. - The cumulative transaction area from January to November showed a year-on-year decline of 9.6% [6]. - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions across 13 cities was 21% for the week and 31% for November, with a cumulative increase of 5% from January to November [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and land reserves in core cities, such as Poly Developments [7]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery among leading intermediary firms benefiting from an increase in second-hand housing transactions, such as Wo Ai Wo Jia [7].

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with notable gains in the Nikkei 225 index, which rose by 6.72% during the holiday period [1][4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.8%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.87% [1][4] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, decreased by 4.55% [4] Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.86%, while the Japanese yen depreciated significantly by 2.55% against the dollar [2][4] - The Chinese yuan experienced a minor depreciation of 0.21% [2][4] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, with a 3.31% increase [2][4] - The energy sector faced declines, with WTI crude oil dropping by 1.61% to $62.16 per barrel [2][4] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with soybean oil rising by 2.80% and wheat falling by 2.22% [2][4] Domestic Consumption and Travel - During the National Day holiday, travel activity was robust, with 826 million trips taken, representing 59% of the national population [6] - Total tourism spending exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase in service consumption, which accounted for 53% of total consumption [6] Real Estate Market - New policies aimed at optimizing the real estate market were introduced during the holiday, with over 470 measures implemented across approximately 200 cities [7] - The core cities are expected to see increased new housing supply, supporting new home sales [7] Economic Data and Government Actions - The US federal government experienced a shutdown, halting the release of key economic data, including employment statistics and inflation reports [11][12] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $333.87 billion by the end of September, reflecting a 0.5% rise [10] International Relations and Trade - Mexico initiated multiple anti-dumping investigations against Chinese products, reflecting rising trade tensions [9] - The US announced a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks, impacting trade dynamics [17] Energy Sector Developments - OPEC+ decided to maintain its production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November [24] - The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US remained stable at 549, down 6.15% year-on-year [25] Metal and Mining Sector Insights - Copper premiums reached a historic high due to supply issues in Chile, with Aurubis setting a premium of $315 per ton for 2026 [39] - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for 2026 to $10,500 per ton, driven by supply constraints [41] Agricultural Products and Food Supply - The USDA reported a decrease of 8% in US old crop soybean stocks as of September 1, totaling 316 million bushels [49] - Brazil's sugar exports in September fell by 16% year-on-year, while cotton exports increased by 5% [66][64]

Group 1 - The recent government policy report did not introduce significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" were not implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - Among property owners, the most favored are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]