Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stagnation of CPI and PPI in July, highlighting the need for effective investment to stimulate economic growth and address supply-demand imbalances [1][5][6]. Group 1: CPI and PPI Analysis - In July, the CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, which was higher than the expected -0.1%, while the PPI remained at -3.6%, lower than the anticipated -3.4% [1][6]. - The simulated deflation index, calculated using PPI and CPI, was -1.44%, slightly lower than the previous two months' -1.38%, marking the lowest since February 2024 [1][6]. - The decline in price levels since the fourth quarter of last year is attributed to insufficient local fixed asset investment affecting the supply-demand ratio [1][6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The PPI's underperformance in July was influenced by high-frequency data discrepancies, particularly in the black metallurgy, automotive, and electrical machinery sectors [2][9]. - Despite rising prices in raw materials for black metal smelting and automotive manufacturing, the final PPI figures showed a decrease of 0.3% in both sectors [2][9]. - Prices for lithium carbonate and polysilicon saw significant increases in July, impacting the photovoltaic industry positively, although the electrical machinery sector still faced a PPI decline of -0.2% [2][10][11]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Looking ahead to August, the PPI decline is expected to narrow to below 3%, with the simulated deflation index likely to bottom out and rise [3][12]. - Initial data for August indicates a neutral trend in industrial prices, with significant increases in domestic coal and coke prices compared to the end of July [3][12]. - The stability of automotive retail and wholesale prices will be crucial to monitor in the coming weeks [3][12]. Group 4: CPI Positive Signals - Positive signals in July were primarily observed in the CPI sector, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.4% month-on-month, reaching a year-on-year high of 0.8% [4][13]. - Notable price stability was seen in automotive retail, with both fuel and new energy vehicle prices stabilizing after a prolonged decline [4][13]. - Household appliances showed a significant month-on-month increase of 2.2%, driven by rising raw material costs, indicating a potential positive trend in consumer spending [4][14]. Group 5: Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the ongoing challenges in achieving a favorable overall price level, necessitating continued policy efforts [5][16]. - Recent government meetings have focused on regulating competition in key industries, including the new energy vehicle sector and the pig farming industry, which may influence future price dynamics [5][16].

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年2月物价趋势回踩。2月CPI同比-0.7%、PPI同比-2.2%，按照CPI、PPI分别占比60%、 40%的经验权重简单估算，模拟平减指数大致为-1.3%，属于去年10月触底回升后幅度较大的一次回撤。其 中PPI降幅较前值进一步收窄，回踩主要来自CPI。 第二， 春节错位是CPI回踩的原因之一。从季节性规律来看，食品价格一般春节前上涨，春节后回落。去年 春节在2月，造成基数较高。 统计局测算扣除春节错月影响2月份CPI同比上涨0.1%。 第三， 但即便是同比0.1%，也仅是持平去年12月的谷底位置，所以春节错位并非全部原因。 2月燃油小汽 车和新能源小汽车价格同比分别下降5.0%和6.0%，合计影响CPI同比约0.16个百分点。汽车制造业PPI也从 1月的环比0.5%重回环比负增长。简单来看，春节前后汽车市场价格竞争仍较为明显。这与行业主体较多， 同时产品更新换代又较快的特征有关。从历史上看，CPI交通工具项年度同比均为负增长，但2023年以来降 幅明显扩大。 第四， PPI在结构上和高频数据一致，石油开采、有色冶炼环比上 ...