1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on natural rubber is "oscillating", indicating that in the short - term, it may maintain a weak performance [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side volume increase expectations are strengthening, and rubber maintains a weak performance. Factors such as产区 weather improvement expectations may loosen raw material price support, while mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and post - holiday downstream operating rates may rise. However, external macro disturbances are negative [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, Yunnan has some rainfall disturbances but overall supply is okay with slightly lower raw material purchase prices; Hainan's rainfall affects rubber tapping, and supply increase is slow. In Thailand, the northeast and north have less rainfall, and the price of raw material cup - rubber has dropped significantly; the south has irregular rainfall, and the glue price has stopped falling and rebounded. In Vietnam, the weather has improved, and glue supply is normal [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points; the semi - steel tire sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 660,000 tons, a decrease of 0.08%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 420,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7% [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. After the holiday, the RU - mixed spread has narrowed, and the basis between futures and spot has continued to shrink. The spread between the RU and NR main contracts has also narrowed [3]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan has improved, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex has still been in the loss range but has recovered significantly [3]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: It is bearish. Affected by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the overall bearish performance of the commodity market [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed variety [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The supply - side volume increase expectations are strengthening, and rubber maintains a weak performance. As of October 17, the RU main contract closed at 14,695 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 620 yuan/ton (- 4.05%); the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,225 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 125 yuan/ton (- 1.04%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have loosened [9]. - **Position on the Futures Board**: The position of the RU2601 contract is relatively low, while the total position of NR has increased, and the RU - NR spread has significantly narrowed [16][23][30]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices have declined [49]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+ 1.76%) [62]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+ 4.25%) [72]. - **China's Imports**: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+ 19.47%). In September 2025, China imported a total of 742,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 20.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to September, the total import was 6.115 million tons, a 19.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [85][91]. - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's social inventory has significantly decreased. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.088 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [101][109]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: After the holiday, tire capacity utilization has rebounded. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%. It is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [110][117]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, automobile sales growth accelerated, and in August, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, an 82% increase compared to the same period last year [126][136]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to August, tire exports were 6.19 million tons (+ 5.1%) [137]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, while the delivery profit of full - latex is in a loss [147].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR are rated neutral. The supply is expected to rise continuously, and the demand is affected by the US tariff increase, with the actual tire demand in China deteriorating. Although the current basis is strengthening, if the market sentiment doesn't improve, the spot price may decline. The valuation is low, which may limit the downside space [5]. - BR is rated neutral. The supply is expected to increase as some upstream devices will restart, and the production profit is still in a loss state. The demand is also affected by the US tariff increase, and the tire substitution demand supports the price. However, the upstream raw material price has concerns of weakening, and the supply pressure is difficult to ease. The price is expected to continue to run weakly, but the low valuation may limit the downside space [5]. 2. Core Views - The demand side is affected by the US tariff increase, with a poor expectation. The actual tire demand in China is also deteriorating, and the tire factory operating rate is continuously declining slightly [1][5]. - For natural rubber, the supply is expected to rise, and the demand is weak. The current basis is strengthening, but the spot may have a downside space if the market sentiment doesn't improve. The low valuation may limit the decline [5]. - For synthetic rubber (BR), the supply has an expectation of increase, and the production profit is in a loss state. The demand is also affected by the US tariff increase, and the tire substitution demand supports the price. The upstream raw material price has concerns of weakening, and the supply pressure is difficult to ease. The price is expected to run weakly, and the low valuation may limit the decline [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: After the Songkran Festival, Thailand will enter a new tapping season. The prices of Thai latex and cup lump continue to be weak, especially the latex, and the spread between latex and cup lump has significantly declined, reflecting the expected increase in raw material supply [1]. - **Supply**: In April, the global natural rubber production is still at a low level. The main production area in Yunnan, China, has started tapping, and the latex output is expected to gradually increase. The supply is expected to rise, and the later arrival volume in China is also expected to increase [1]. - **Demand**: As of April 18, the all - steel tire operating rate is 67.44% (+0.23%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate is 72.40% (-1.99%). The downstream tire operating rate continues to be weak, mainly due to the increase in the finished product inventory pressure of tire factories, indicating poor orders [1]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly declined, while the social inventory has slightly increased. Year - on - year, it is still in an inverse seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, reflecting weak downstream demand and relatively low import pressure in China [1]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Upstream Raw Materials**: As of April 18, the price of butadiene from Shanghai Petrochemical is 9,300 yuan/ton, and the cost of butadiene rubber is 11,986 yuan/ton. The butadiene price is firm this week, and the production of butadiene rubber continues to be in a loss state [2]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of April 18, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber is 62.76% (+2.02%), and the output is 25,200 tons (+810). In the loss situation, the operating rate is difficult to significantly increase later [2]. - **Production Profit**: As of April 18, the production profit of butadiene rubber is - 961 yuan/ton. Currently, due to the high butadiene price year - on - year, the production profit of domestic butadiene rubber remains in a loss state, and the loss amplitude has recently narrowed [2]. - **Device Maintenance Dynamics**: Some devices of Shandong Weite Chemical Co., Ltd., Haopu New Materials, Zhejiang Transfar, Shandong Yihua, Jinzhou Petrochemical, and Yanshan Petrochemical have plans for restart or maintenance [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, the upstream butadiene port inventory is 2.74 million tons (+2.92), the butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory is 27,150 tons (0.06), and the butadiene rubber trader inventory is 4,370 tons (-330) [3][4]. - **Demand**: The downstream tire operating rate continues to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate has turned to a year - on - year decline, mainly due to the increase in the finished product inventory pressure of tire factories, indicating poor orders [1][4].