投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 供给端上量预期增强，橡胶维持偏弱表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:供给端上量预期增强，橡胶维持偏弱表现 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）国内产区：云南降雨扰动仍存，但整体影响不大，原料供应尚可，原料收购价格小幅下调。海南产区降水天气扰动持续，对割胶作业影响增强，原料 生产释放受阻明显，产区供应上量节奏缓慢。（2）泰国产区：泰国东北部及北部降雨有缓解，割胶工作正常进行，原料杯胶价格跌幅较 大；泰南不规律降 | | | | 水干扰，原料上量节奏受阻，胶水价格止跌反弹。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气转好，胶水供应趋于正常，前期原料供应紧张的压力得到缓解，胶水价格 波动空间有限。 | | | | （1）截至上周中国全 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR are rated neutral. The supply is expected to rise continuously, and the demand is affected by the US tariff increase, with the actual tire demand in China deteriorating. Although the current basis is strengthening, if the market sentiment doesn't improve, the spot price may decline. The valuation is low, which may limit the downside space [5]. - BR is rated neutral. The supply is expected to increase as some upstream devices will restart, and the production profit is still in a loss state. The demand is also affected by the US tariff increase, and the tire substitution demand supports the price. However, the upstream raw material price has concerns of weakening, and the supply pressure is difficult to ease. The price is expected to continue to run weakly, but the low valuation may limit the downside space [5]. 2. Core Views - The demand side is affected by the US tariff increase, with a poor expectation. The actual tire demand in China is also deteriorating, and the tire factory operating rate is continuously declining slightly [1][5]. - For natural rubber, the supply is expected to rise, and the demand is weak. The current basis is strengthening, but the spot may have a downside space if the market sentiment doesn't improve. The low valuation may limit the decline [5]. - For synthetic rubber (BR), the supply has an expectation of increase, and the production profit is in a loss state. The demand is also affected by the US tariff increase, and the tire substitution demand supports the price. The upstream raw material price has concerns of weakening, and the supply pressure is difficult to ease. The price is expected to run weakly, and the low valuation may limit the decline [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: After the Songkran Festival, Thailand will enter a new tapping season. The prices of Thai latex and cup lump continue to be weak, especially the latex, and the spread between latex and cup lump has significantly declined, reflecting the expected increase in raw material supply [1]. - **Supply**: In April, the global natural rubber production is still at a low level. The main production area in Yunnan, China, has started tapping, and the latex output is expected to gradually increase. The supply is expected to rise, and the later arrival volume in China is also expected to increase [1]. - **Demand**: As of April 18, the all - steel tire operating rate is 67.44% (+0.23%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate is 72.40% (-1.99%). The downstream tire operating rate continues to be weak, mainly due to the increase in the finished product inventory pressure of tire factories, indicating poor orders [1]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly declined, while the social inventory has slightly increased. Year - on - year, it is still in an inverse seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, reflecting weak downstream demand and relatively low import pressure in China [1]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Upstream Raw Materials**: As of April 18, the price of butadiene from Shanghai Petrochemical is 9,300 yuan/ton, and the cost of butadiene rubber is 11,986 yuan/ton. The butadiene price is firm this week, and the production of butadiene rubber continues to be in a loss state [2]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of April 18, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber is 62.76% (+2.02%), and the output is 25,200 tons (+810). In the loss situation, the operating rate is difficult to significantly increase later [2]. - **Production Profit**: As of April 18, the production profit of butadiene rubber is - 961 yuan/ton. Currently, due to the high butadiene price year - on - year, the production profit of domestic butadiene rubber remains in a loss state, and the loss amplitude has recently narrowed [2]. - **Device Maintenance Dynamics**: Some devices of Shandong Weite Chemical Co., Ltd., Haopu New Materials, Zhejiang Transfar, Shandong Yihua, Jinzhou Petrochemical, and Yanshan Petrochemical have plans for restart or maintenance [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, the upstream butadiene port inventory is 2.74 million tons (+2.92), the butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory is 27,150 tons (0.06), and the butadiene rubber trader inventory is 4,370 tons (-330) [3][4]. - **Demand**: The downstream tire operating rate continues to be weak, especially the semi - steel tire operating rate has turned to a year - on - year decline, mainly due to the increase in the finished product inventory pressure of tire factories, indicating poor orders [1][4].