俄乌冲突已经持续了近4年，然而，欧洲的大国们似乎并没有采取有效的和解措施，反而在想着如何从中渔利。德国新总理默茨提出要动用被冻结的俄罗斯 1.7万亿人民币资产，原本打算联合法国一起出手，结果却发现法国总统马克龙背离了他，直接站在了反对的一方。这一操作让欧盟外交官感到愤怒和失 望。原本承诺的合作，最终变成了背叛。现在，欧洲各国的财政状况堪忧，尤其是在援助乌克兰的过程中，支出已经让很多国家的财政不堪重负，但德国的 默茨仍坚持强硬立场。 根据《金融时报》的报道，默茨曾提前与马克龙沟通过，希望联合欧盟冻结在欧洲银行的2100亿欧元俄罗斯资产，一方面打击俄罗斯，另一方面用这些资金 支持乌克兰。但在布鲁塞尔峰会时，马克龙却突然反对，并明确表示不支持这一计划。这让欧盟的外交官们私下议论，这不再是软弱的表现，而是赤裸裸的 背叛。这些被冻结的资产，大部分存放在比利时的清算银行。 默茨刚上任几个月，就展现出强硬姿态，解禁了1万亿欧元的国防和基建支出，放弃了对核能的依赖，并实施了产业保护政策。他显然是想在布鲁塞尔成为 话事人，带领欧洲走出以往的犹豫不决。而马克龙，曾经高喊要实现欧洲战略自主的口号，现在却被国内的困境束缚，经济增长疲 ...

Core Viewpoint - Europe is at the center of an unprecedented geopolitical storm, originating from Ukraine but affecting all EU member states and beyond, highlighting the struggle between war, memory, and strategic autonomy [1][2][3] Group 1: Political Consensus and Historical Context - The statement by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasizes that peace cannot be imposed on Ukraine, marking a significant political stance within Europe [2][3] - This reflects a core consensus within the EU since 2022 that Ukraine's fate must be determined by Ukrainians themselves, evolving from emotional support to a formal diplomatic position [5][6] - The historical context of appeasement, particularly the Munich Agreement, serves as a cautionary tale for European leaders, reinforcing the need for Ukraine's involvement in any negotiations regarding its future [6][10] Group 2: Symbolic Actions and Historical Reconciliation - Germany's announcement of a new monument in Berlin to commemorate Polish victims of Nazi oppression is a significant symbolic gesture aimed at reinforcing European unity [7][10] - The return of historical artifacts, including documents related to the Teutonic Knights, serves as a material anchor for political trust between Germany and Poland, emphasizing the importance of historical acknowledgment [11][12][43] - The timing of these actions amidst rising fatigue over support for Ukraine and increasing strategic divisions within Europe indicates a deliberate effort to strengthen moral foundations for unity [9][10][48] Group 3: Military and Defense Dynamics - NATO's recent summit revealed a compromise among member states, with a notable omission of a commitment to Ukraine's eventual membership, reflecting internal divisions on security concerns [19][20] - The EU's defense strategy is evolving, with plans for a "drone wall" along the borders with Ukraine and Russia to counter increasing drone attacks, showcasing a shift towards technological solutions for military shortcomings [30][35] - The EU's defense investment of €150 billion over five years, while substantial, translates to an average annual investment of less than €30 billion per member state, highlighting the symbolic nature of these commitments compared to the U.S. defense budget [56][57] Group 4: Strategic Autonomy and Future Challenges - The EU is accelerating its "strategic autonomy" process, aiming to establish independent defense capabilities by 2030, reducing reliance on U.S. military support [35][36] - However, differing national security priorities among member states complicate the implementation of a cohesive defense strategy, revealing the challenges of sovereignty in defense matters [39][83] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the need for a unified European voice in support of Ukraine underscore the delicate balance between moral imperatives and practical military capabilities [45][60] Group 5: Future Outlook and Political Dynamics - The joint declaration by Germany and Poland aims to solidify core positions ahead of critical upcoming events, reflecting a strategic response to increasing uncertainties in transatlantic relations [58][90] - The ambiguity surrounding peace negotiations and the lack of a widely accepted framework highlight Europe's struggle to present a unified strategic vision [42][61] - The upcoming return of historical artifacts and the establishment of memorials are seen as steps towards acknowledging past responsibilities while navigating current geopolitical complexities [43][96]

Core Viewpoint - The German Chancellor Merz emphasized that peace cannot be imposed on Ukraine and that any decisions regarding Ukraine and Europe should involve participation from both Ukraine and Europe [1] Group 1: European Support for Ukraine - European countries are facing "important days and weeks" regarding the Ukraine crisis and are closely coordinating to fully support Ukraine [1] - There is a desire among European nations to leverage their strongest tools to bring Russia to the negotiating table [1] Group 2: Unity of Europe and NATO - Merz stated that it is crucial not to weaken or divide the EU and NATO, highlighting that Ukraine's situation is tied to European unity [1] - The aim is to ensure that no external factors create divisions within Europe [1] Group 3: Germany-Poland Government Consultations - Germany and Poland held intergovernmental consultations focusing on security and defense, cyber and infrastructure development, and historical commemorations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The protests in Hungary reflect a growing discontent among the populace regarding the economic burdens imposed by the EU's policies, particularly in relation to the war in Ukraine, highlighting a shift in focus from supporting Ukraine to addressing domestic economic challenges [1][3][10]. Economic Impact - Rising prices and heating costs have led to significant financial strain on Hungarian families, with natural gas prices tripling and heating bills doubling, forcing many to resort to alternative heating methods [5][21]. - The disconnect between rising living costs and stagnant wages has exacerbated public frustration, as essential goods like meat and bread have seen substantial price increases without corresponding wage growth [5][21]. Political Dynamics - Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has capitalized on this discontent by framing the issue in relatable terms, asking citizens to evaluate the costs of the war and its impact on their daily lives [6][10]. - Orbán's approach contrasts with other EU leaders, as he emphasizes practical concerns over abstract ideals, effectively shifting the political narrative towards "accounting politics" that resonates with voters [12][13]. Public Sentiment - The protests signify a broader trend in Europe, where citizens are increasingly questioning the rationale behind supporting Ukraine amidst their own economic struggles, leading to a potential fracturing of the EU's unity [10][17]. - The slogan "We will not die for Ukraine" encapsulates the sentiment of the protesters, reflecting a desire for prioritizing domestic welfare over foreign conflicts [4][8]. Broader Implications - The protests in Hungary may serve as a catalyst for similar sentiments across Europe, as other nations also grapple with the economic fallout from the war and the EU's response [19][17]. - Orbán's promise to negotiate energy agreements with Russia if re-elected has gained traction among voters, further complicating the EU's stance and potentially undermining its collective approach to the crisis [15][12].

Core Viewpoint - The potential meeting between Trump and Putin has raised significant concerns, particularly among European leaders and Ukraine, about the implications for regional security and the decision-making process regarding Ukraine's fate [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reactions from European Leaders - Following the announcement of the Trump-Putin meeting, leaders from six European countries and the EU Commission President issued a joint statement emphasizing that any decisions regarding Ukraine must include European participation [4][5]. - The statement reflects a strong collective response from European leaders, who fear being marginalized in discussions that directly affect their security interests [8][9]. - The urgency of the European response is underscored by their historical involvement in the Ukraine crisis, including military aid and economic sanctions against Russia [7][9]. Group 2: Implications for Ukraine - The situation has led to deep concerns among Ukrainians, with citizens questioning the sacrifices made in the conflict if their fate is to be decided by major powers without their input [3][4]. - Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines are also expressing doubts about the future of their struggle, fearing that their efforts may be disregarded in negotiations [4][10]. Group 3: Diplomatic Dynamics - The European leaders' statement indicates a clear message to Trump that any diplomatic solution must prioritize the security interests of Europe and Ukraine [6][10]. - The emphasis on a ceasefire as a prerequisite for meaningful negotiations highlights the complexities of the diplomatic landscape and the need for cooperation among all parties involved [10][11]. - The collective action of European leaders serves as a demonstration of unity and a call for respect in international negotiations, reinforcing the idea that true partnerships require mutual acknowledgment and dialogue [11][12].

Group 1 - French President Macron visited Greenland to express support for the island's sovereignty and demonstrate European unity [1][3] - Macron emphasized that Greenland is facing threats from "ambitious" parties and stated that it cannot be sold or taken away [3] - The visit included a meeting with Danish and Greenlandic leaders, where Macron rejected the idea of the U.S. annexing Greenland as "madness" [3] Group 2 - Greenland is rich in natural resources, particularly rare earth minerals and potential oil reserves, increasing its strategic value as Arctic ice melts [3] - Macron proposed joint military exercises with Baltic and Nordic countries, as well as Canada, to enhance cooperation in the Arctic region [3] - The geopolitical interest in Greenland has been heightened due to former President Trump's expressed desire to acquire control over the island [3]

Group 1 - The core message from the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is that Europe is united in its stance to the world [1]

Core Viewpoint - Former Secretary of State Blinken stated that current President Trump only respects strongman leaders and perceives Europe as weak and divided [1] Group 1 - Blinken emphasized that Trump focuses on strong leadership and powerful nations when assessing the global landscape [1] - He noted that Trump views Europe as a weak and disunited entity, which affects how seriously Europe is taken by the U.S. [1] - To gain Trump's attention, Europe needs to demonstrate greater cohesion, unity, and clear common goals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Germany's Chancellor Merz emphasizes that Europe is facing significant challenges and must become more united [1] Group 1 - The focus will be on strengthening bilateral defense cooperation with France [1]