电力设备 2026 年 02 月 27 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -34% -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究报告 《欧洲电动车销量月报（2025 年 12 月）：2025 年欧洲 9 国 BEV 同比+31%， 2026 年多国补贴将延续或重启—行业 点评报告》-2026.1.22 《欧洲电动车销量月报（2025 年 11 月）：法国、意大利补贴落地后 BEV 高 速 增 长 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.25 《光伏拐点已现，储能大势所趋—行 业投资策略》-2025.12.8 欧洲电动车销量月报（2026 年 1 月）：1 月欧洲 9 国 新能源车同比+23%，法、意、西等增长明显 ——行业点评报告 | 殷晟路（分析师） | 王嘉懿（分析师） | | --- | --- | | yinshenglu@kysec.cn | wangjiayi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080001 | 证书编号：S0790525060004 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report indicates a strong recovery in the European electric vehicle (EV) market, with 2025 sales in nine European countries reaching 2.885 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 29.0%, up 6.7 percentage points year-on-year [13][16] - The report highlights that various countries, including Spain, the UK, France, and Italy, have implemented or will continue to implement subsidies, which are expected to drive further growth in EV sales in 2026 [7][14][19] - The European Commission's proposal to adjust the 2035 emission reduction targets is not expected to hinder the long-term trend of electrification in Europe. Instead, it introduces incentives for small electric vehicles and imposes requirements on zero-emission vehicles in corporate fleets, which will further promote EV sales [49][51] Summary by Sections 1. European EV Sales - In 2025, Germany's BEV sales reached 545,000 units, up 43.2% year-on-year, while PHEV sales were 311,000 units, up 62.3% [18] - The UK saw BEV sales of 473,000 units, a 23.9% increase, and PHEV sales of 225,000 units, up 34.7% [24] - France's BEV sales reached 326,000 units, up 12.1%, with PHEV sales declining by 25.9% [30] - Italy's BEV sales were 95,000 units, up 44.2%, and PHEV sales were 99,000 units, up 89.4% [41] - Spain's BEV sales reached 102,000 units, up 77.2%, and PHEV sales were 124,000 units, up 111.7% [44] 2. EU Dynamics - The European Commission's adjustment of the 2035 emission reduction targets does not affect the long-term electrification trend in Europe. The proposal allows for greater flexibility for automakers while maintaining the goal of climate neutrality by 2050 [49][50] - The Commission plans to establish a social climate fund to support member states in achieving clean transitions, with a budget of €86.7 billion from 2026 to 2032 [52] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the lithium battery sector include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Xinwangda, with beneficiaries including Zhongxin Innovation and Guoxuan High-Tech [55][57] - In lithium materials, recommended companies are Hunan Youneng and Tianci Materials, with beneficiaries including Fulian Precision and Wanrun New Energy [55][57] - For charging stations and modules, recommended companies include Youyou Green Energy and Tonghe Technology, with beneficiaries such as Shenghong Co. [55][57]

Core Insights - The report highlights a sustained high growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales across nine European countries in November 2025, with a total of 281,000 new energy vehicles sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.6% and a penetration rate of 34.3%, up by 9.0 percentage points [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In November 2025, battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales reached 190,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 40.5%, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales totaled 91,000 units, up by 35.0% [1][2]. - Germany's BEV sales were 56,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 58.5%, and PHEV sales were 32,000 units, up by 57.4% [2][3]. - France's BEV sales reached 34,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.5%, with a penetration rate of 25.8%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points [3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The implementation of subsidies in France and Italy has led to a rapid increase in BEV sales, with Italy experiencing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 131.4% in BEV sales, totaling 15,000 units [3]. - The UK has restarted EV subsidies and is under pressure from zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) targets, which is expected to sustain growth in EV sales in the coming months [2][3]. - Norway is anticipated to see a surge in electric vehicle purchases as the year-end approaches, driven by consumer demand [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The European Commission's proposal to adjust the 2035 emission reduction targets is not expected to hinder the long-term trend of electrification in Europe; instead, it may promote sales of small electric vehicles [4]. - New generations of pure electric models are set to be launched by various automakers from late 2025 to the first half of 2026, which is likely to boost the European EV market [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations include companies involved in lithium batteries, lithium materials, battery structural components, power/electric drive systems, automotive safety components, and charging infrastructure [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment in lithium batteries include CATL, EVE Energy, and Xinwangda, while lithium material companies include Hunan Youneng and Tianci Materials [4].

Group 1 - CICC suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold, noting significant price increases and high valuations, with potential risks from a tapering of the Fed's easing expectations in early 2026 [1] - The report indicates that a significant pullback in gold prices early next year could present a buying opportunity, as the Fed is expected to accelerate easing again [1] - Other commodities like copper and silver have also shown strong performance, reflecting liquidity spillover effects from gold, and commodities can hedge against geopolitical risks and overheating in the US economy [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities highlights a trend of exploration, mining service, and equipment manufacturers transitioning towards mining development due to high metal prices, with various models such as equity participation and EPC+O being utilized [2] - This transition is driven by the strong development willingness of small to medium-sized mine owners, who face funding and technical constraints, necessitating external support for development [2] - Mining service and equipment companies are expected to play a significant role in developing small mines through their operational experience, suggesting a promising future for this sector [2] Group 3 - Open Source Securities states that the European Commission's proposal to adjust the 2035 emission reduction targets will not impact the long-term trend of electrification in Europe [3] - The proposal includes incentives for small electric vehicles and constraints on zero-emission vehicles for corporate fleets, aimed at boosting electric vehicle sales in Europe [3] - The introduction of new generation pure electric models by automakers from late 2025 to the first half of 2026 is expected to drive significant growth in the European electric vehicle market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission's proposal to adjust the 2035 emission reduction targets is not expected to impact the long-term trend of electrification in Europe. Instead, it will provide "super credits" for small electric vehicles and impose restrictions on the proportion of zero-emission models for corporate vehicles to further promote electric vehicle sales in Europe [1] Group 1 - The proposal aims to enhance the sales of electric vehicles in Europe by incentivizing small electric cars with "super credits" [1] - There will be constraints on the share of zero-emission models in corporate fleets, which is expected to drive demand for electric vehicles [1] - New generation pure electric models from various automakers are set to be launched between the end of 2025 and the first half of 2026, which is anticipated to boost the European electric vehicle market significantly [1]

Group 1 - The 2025 Munich Auto Show highlighted the collaboration between European automotive manufacturers and Chinese battery producers, particularly with CATL's introduction of its NP3.0 technology platform and the Shunxing Pro lithium iron phosphate battery [1] - Despite a slowdown in the electrification rate in Europe, data shows that the electrification rate increased from 23% to 26% in the first half of 2025, with projections nearing 29% by year-end, indicating a contradiction in the market dynamics [2] - The structural issues in Europe's electrification process are evident, with a significant reliance on high-end ternary batteries and insufficient development of lithium iron phosphate technology, leading to a lack of competitiveness in the mid-to-low-end market [2] Group 2 - Northvolt's bankruptcy in 2024 and its North American subsidiary's subsequent failure in 2025 have highlighted Europe's loss of capacity to produce qualified lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are crucial for reducing electric vehicle prices [3] - The European Union is at least five years behind China in the development and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries, a gap that may persist until 2030 [3] - BloombergNEF predicts that Europe will face a 70GWh shortfall in battery capacity by 2025, despite projected electric vehicle sales of 3.27 million units [3] Group 3 - The lack of local battery production capabilities in Europe has created significant opportunities for Chinese battery companies like CATL and EVE Energy to establish manufacturing plants in the region [3][4] - CATL's factory in Hungary is expected to have a capacity of 100GWh, supplying 30 European brands, while a joint venture with Stellantis in Spain aims for a 50GWh capacity by the end of 2026 [6] - The collaboration between Chinese battery firms and European automakers is deepening, with CATL's technology being integrated into various vehicle platforms, indicating a shift towards a more collaborative approach in product design [6][7] Group 4 - CATL's market share in Europe reached 35% from January to October 2024, with expectations to exceed 40% in 2025 and potentially surpass 50% by 2027 [8] - The global market share of CATL reached 37.5% from January to July 2025, reflecting an 11 percentage point increase since 2020, solidifying its position as an industry leader [8] - European manufacturers are responding to the competitive landscape by encouraging local battery industry transformation and exploring technology sharing with automotive companies [8]