行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 08 月 17 日 供需预期共振，金属投资进入新 阶段 看好 —— 金属&新材料行业周报20250811-20250815 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 1．一周行情回顾 据 ifind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 1.70%，深证成指上涨 4.55%，沪深 300 上涨 2.37%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 3.62%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.25 个百分点； 2025 年有色金属（申万）指数上涨 36. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests focusing on gold stocks for a potential second wave of market opportunities within the year, driven by three dimensions: gold prices, valuations, and investment style [2][4] - Gold prices are expected to rise due to a pure driving force this year, breaking away from traditional interest rate frameworks, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September [2][4] - Valuations of nearly all A-share gold stocks have adjusted to levels seen before the Q1 rally, indicating a high risk-reward ratio for investors [2][4] - The relative performance of gold stocks has diverged significantly from gold prices, reaching a new high in this cycle [2][4] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of gold stocks and suggests increasing allocation to them, highlighting companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and Shengda Resources [4] - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are also highlighted for their potential value reassessment, driven by national policies and international market dynamics [5] - The report notes that the prices of rare earths have shown a significant increase, with Baotou Steel's rare earth concentrate price rising to 19,100 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase [5] Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are experiencing downward pressure due to domestic demand concerns and a stronger US dollar, with copper and aluminum prices declining by 1.7% and 2.3% respectively [6][24] - The report indicates that the overall industrial metal market is in a state of fluctuation, with expectations of a rebound if the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts or if domestic stimulus measures are intensified [7] Lithium and Cobalt - The report highlights the short-term price fluctuations in lithium and cobalt, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping by 9.9% to 68.5 yuan/kg, while cobalt prices have shown an upward trend [25][29] - The report suggests monitoring supply disruptions in Jiangxi and emphasizes the potential for price increases in cobalt due to supply constraints [5][29]

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 稀土战略价值凸显，关注白银股补涨机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 衰退叙事阶段性受阻，强就业数据削弱降息预期压制金价。商品端，短期将继续步入宽幅震荡 格局；权益侧，整体低估背景下依旧保持乐观。值得重视的是，白银补涨趋势较强，银金比弱 势格局下，其补涨弹性可期。美国补库及美元走弱，工业金属企稳。在美国补库及美元走弱的 双重带动下，本周工业金属商品价格企稳：1）受美国再次提高钢铝关税影响，美国补库预期导 致美铜强势上涨，进而带动全球铜价反弹；2）美国 PMI 等经济数据走弱，压制美元表现，进 而也有助大宗走强。贸易关税反复，国际局势动荡，稀土战略配置价值再起。 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% % ...