Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the performance of the metals sector, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 36.77% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 29.98 percentage points [5][9] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, driven by increased production and investment in infrastructure [4][11] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.55% [4] - The non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points, with notable increases in copper (5.95%) and aluminum (5.04%) prices [4][11] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains across various metals, with small metals up by 49.02% and energy metals by 33.83% [11] Price Changes - Industrial metals prices showed mixed results, with copper prices increasing by 0.12% and aluminum decreasing by 0.08% [16] - Lithium prices surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 17.48% and industrial-grade lithium carbonate by 19.42% [16] - Precious metals saw a decline, with COMEX gold prices dropping by 2.21% [16] Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the sector include Zijin Mining, with a current stock price of 21.29 CNY and a projected PE ratio of 27 for 2023 [20] - Shandong Gold's stock price is 31.26 CNY, with a projected PE ratio of 60 for 2023 [20] - Companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Yunnan Aluminum are highlighted for their potential benefits from the ongoing market trends [20] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates a tightening supply-demand balance in the aluminum market, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production at 373.96 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year [52] - Copper supply remains relatively stable, with social inventory at 126,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 million tons [35] - The report suggests that the demand for copper will be supported by ongoing investments in electrical infrastructure and home appliance subsidies [4][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests focusing on gold stocks for a potential second wave of market opportunities within the year, driven by three dimensions: gold prices, valuations, and investment style [2][4] - Gold prices are expected to rise due to a pure driving force this year, breaking away from traditional interest rate frameworks, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September [2][4] - Valuations of nearly all A-share gold stocks have adjusted to levels seen before the Q1 rally, indicating a high risk-reward ratio for investors [2][4] - The relative performance of gold stocks has diverged significantly from gold prices, reaching a new high in this cycle [2][4] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of gold stocks and suggests increasing allocation to them, highlighting companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and Shengda Resources [4] - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are also highlighted for their potential value reassessment, driven by national policies and international market dynamics [5] - The report notes that the prices of rare earths have shown a significant increase, with Baotou Steel's rare earth concentrate price rising to 19,100 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase [5] Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are experiencing downward pressure due to domestic demand concerns and a stronger US dollar, with copper and aluminum prices declining by 1.7% and 2.3% respectively [6][24] - The report indicates that the overall industrial metal market is in a state of fluctuation, with expectations of a rebound if the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts or if domestic stimulus measures are intensified [7] Lithium and Cobalt - The report highlights the short-term price fluctuations in lithium and cobalt, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping by 9.9% to 68.5 yuan/kg, while cobalt prices have shown an upward trend [25][29] - The report suggests monitoring supply disruptions in Jiangxi and emphasizes the potential for price increases in cobalt due to supply constraints [5][29]

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 稀土战略价值凸显，关注白银股补涨机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 衰退叙事阶段性受阻，强就业数据削弱降息预期压制金价。商品端，短期将继续步入宽幅震荡 格局；权益侧，整体低估背景下依旧保持乐观。值得重视的是，白银补涨趋势较强，银金比弱 势格局下，其补涨弹性可期。美国补库及美元走弱，工业金属企稳。在美国补库及美元走弱的 双重带动下，本周工业金属商品价格企稳：1）受美国再次提高钢铝关税影响，美国补库预期导 致美铜强势上涨，进而带动全球铜价反弹；2）美国 PMI 等经济数据走弱，压制美元表现，进 而也有助大宗走强。贸易关税反复，国际局势动荡，稀土战略配置价值再起。 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% % ...