在全球金属市场波动加剧的背景下，有色金属板块再度站上投资风口。黄金价格屡创新高，铜、铝等工 业金属持续上行，新能源相关金属轮番活跃——这轮行情究竟是短期情绪驱动，还是长期结构性机遇的 开启？上银基金权益投研部总监、权益投资总监、基金经理卢扬从股票投资与宏观配置的角度，深入剖 析了当前有色板块的估值逻辑、驱动因素及未来布局策略。 卢扬指出，当前有色金属板块在"供给稀缺、结构分化、估值合理"三大关键词支撑下，仍具备显著的中 长期配置价值。 黄金：不只是避险资产，更是货币信用的"压舱石" 在卢扬看来，本轮黄金上涨的深层逻辑，已超越传统的避险需求或降息预期。他认为，黄金本质上是对 全球货币体系稳定性的定价工具，其价格反映的是市场对主权信用，尤其是美元信用的长期忧虑。 "黄金是应对货币体系不确定性的价值锚。"卢扬表示，在单极货币主导的时代，黄金的作用相对有限； 但随着多极货币格局逐步形成，其战略意义愈发凸显。当前地缘政治复杂多变、全球货币体系面临重 构，黄金已成为各国央行和机构投资者对冲信用风险的重要选择。 此外，美国财政赤字的持续扩大进一步削弱美元信用，为金价提供持续支撑。卢扬分析，特朗普政府时 期推行的扩张性财政政 ...

1月7日晚间，黄金、白银集体下跌。截至发稿，现货黄金跌1.34%，报4434.52美元/盎司；现货白银 跌4.34%，失守78美元/盎司。 沪金、 沪银 期货主力合约同样下跌。截至发稿， 沪金 期货主力合约 跌0.95%，报995.74元/克；沪 银期货主力合约跌超4%，报18796元/千克。 | < 日 | SHFE貢金 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | AU.SHF | | | | | | | | | 995.74 F | 1005.28 总手 | | | | 1.11万 | 万得 | | | | | | | | | | 盘口 | | | | -9.54 | -0.95% 十益 | | 999.40 现手 | | | 5 | | | | 最高价 | 1000.56 | 持 仓 | 12.61万 | タ | | | 4927 | | | 最低价 | 995.20 增 仓 | | | -9 内 | 참 | | 6209 | | | 分时 | 五日 EK | | 園K | 月K | | 申示 | ...

NO.2华泰证券：看好矿服及设备商向矿山开发转型趋势 华泰证券研报表示，当前金属高价下或催生较多勘探、矿服及设备制造商向矿业开发转型，此类转型模 式主要包括参股、控股以及EPC+O模式(低参股但享有超额收益权)。在此背景下，上述转型模式有望成 为未来矿业重要的开发力量，原因在于当前高金属价格背景下，中小型矿山业主具备较强的开发意愿， 但普遍面临资金实力有限，技术和项目管理能力不足等约束，需外部力量协助推进开发；而大型矿业公 司更偏好资源体量大，生命周期长的项目，对规模有限的小型矿山参与意愿较低。在此背景下，矿服、 矿业设备公司具备丰富的运营经验参与该类型小矿山开发，并通过EPC+O的形式参股运营。这种多方 互利的商业模式有望在未来大规模展开，因此我们看好矿服、矿业设备制造商转型，建议投资者关注该 行业新动态。 NO.3开源证券：欧盟委员会提案不会影响欧洲电动化的长期趋势 ｜2025年12月26日星期五｜ NO.1中金公司：建议维持超配黄金 12月26日，中金公司（601995）研报指出，今年黄金涨幅较大，估值偏高，2026年初美联储宽松预期阶 段性退坡，或成为风险来源。考虑到明年美联储最终仍会重新加速宽松，因 ...

Company Overview - Hudbay Minerals has a market capitalization of $6.40 billion and trailing 12-month revenue of $2.20 billion, with a net income of $289.02 million [3] - The company produces copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and zinc from its operations in North and South America, operating three polymetallic mines and four ore concentrators [4] - Hudbay's dividend yield stands at 0.09%, with a forward P/E ratio of 14.13 and an EV/EBITDA of 6.70 [3] Recent Developments - Triasima Portfolio Management Inc. established a new position in Hudbay Minerals, purchasing 531,833 shares valued at approximately $8.06 million, representing 1.2% of Triasima's reportable assets [1][2] - Hudbay Minerals shares have increased by 68.7% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 49.5 percentage points [2] - The stock has risen about 51% since the end of June, indicating strong performance in the metals sector [6] Financial Performance - Hudbay's trailing 12-month revenues have increased by 47.1% over the past decade, with gold accounting for 36% of total revenue in the second quarter [6] - Management has improved expectations for full-year consolidated cash costs for copper production, reducing the midpoint guidance from $0.90 per pound to $0.75 per pound [7] - Recent gold prices have exceeded $4,200 per ounce, attracting investors seeking a hedge against rising government debt [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the performance of the metals sector, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 36.77% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 29.98 percentage points [5][9] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, driven by increased production and investment in infrastructure [4][11] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.55% [4] - The non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points, with notable increases in copper (5.95%) and aluminum (5.04%) prices [4][11] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains across various metals, with small metals up by 49.02% and energy metals by 33.83% [11] Price Changes - Industrial metals prices showed mixed results, with copper prices increasing by 0.12% and aluminum decreasing by 0.08% [16] - Lithium prices surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 17.48% and industrial-grade lithium carbonate by 19.42% [16] - Precious metals saw a decline, with COMEX gold prices dropping by 2.21% [16] Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the sector include Zijin Mining, with a current stock price of 21.29 CNY and a projected PE ratio of 27 for 2023 [20] - Shandong Gold's stock price is 31.26 CNY, with a projected PE ratio of 60 for 2023 [20] - Companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Yunnan Aluminum are highlighted for their potential benefits from the ongoing market trends [20] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates a tightening supply-demand balance in the aluminum market, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production at 373.96 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year [52] - Copper supply remains relatively stable, with social inventory at 126,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 million tons [35] - The report suggests that the demand for copper will be supported by ongoing investments in electrical infrastructure and home appliance subsidies [4][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests focusing on gold stocks for a potential second wave of market opportunities within the year, driven by three dimensions: gold prices, valuations, and investment style [2][4] - Gold prices are expected to rise due to a pure driving force this year, breaking away from traditional interest rate frameworks, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September [2][4] - Valuations of nearly all A-share gold stocks have adjusted to levels seen before the Q1 rally, indicating a high risk-reward ratio for investors [2][4] - The relative performance of gold stocks has diverged significantly from gold prices, reaching a new high in this cycle [2][4] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of gold stocks and suggests increasing allocation to them, highlighting companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and Shengda Resources [4] - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are also highlighted for their potential value reassessment, driven by national policies and international market dynamics [5] - The report notes that the prices of rare earths have shown a significant increase, with Baotou Steel's rare earth concentrate price rising to 19,100 yuan/ton, a 1.5% increase [5] Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are experiencing downward pressure due to domestic demand concerns and a stronger US dollar, with copper and aluminum prices declining by 1.7% and 2.3% respectively [6][24] - The report indicates that the overall industrial metal market is in a state of fluctuation, with expectations of a rebound if the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts or if domestic stimulus measures are intensified [7] Lithium and Cobalt - The report highlights the short-term price fluctuations in lithium and cobalt, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping by 9.9% to 68.5 yuan/kg, while cobalt prices have shown an upward trend [25][29] - The report suggests monitoring supply disruptions in Jiangxi and emphasizes the potential for price increases in cobalt due to supply constraints [5][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11]. Core Insights - The narrative of recession is temporarily hindered by strong employment data, which reduces interest rate cut expectations and suppresses gold prices. The commodity sector is expected to continue in a wide fluctuation pattern in the short term, while the equity side remains optimistic due to overall undervaluation. Notably, silver shows a strong rebound trend, with potential for significant recovery given its current weak silver-gold ratio [2][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The narrative of recession is temporarily hindered, with strong employment data reducing interest rate cut expectations, pushing the timeline for cuts to September and reducing the number of cuts to two. Gold prices are expected to maintain a wide fluctuation pattern, supported by safe-haven demand but facing potential outflows from interest rate-driven funds. The equity side benefits from low valuations, maintaining good cost-performance ratios. Silver has shown rapid recovery, triggering a rally in silver stocks, with the silver-gold ratio at historical lows, indicating substantial recovery potential. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Shengda Resources [6][9]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices have stabilized due to U.S. restocking and a weaker dollar. Copper prices rose by 1.8% on the LME and 1.7% on the SHFE, driven by U.S. tariff increases on steel and aluminum, which boosted copper prices globally. Economic data from the U.S. has weakened, suppressing the dollar and supporting commodity prices. The report highlights that copper inventories increased by 0.59% week-on-week, while aluminum inventories decreased by 1.68% year-on-year. The report suggests a cautious outlook for copper and aluminum, with expectations for a gradual reversal in prices as interest rate cuts and domestic stimulus policies are anticipated [7][8]. Strategic and Energy Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic value of rare earths and tungsten, with the potential for price recovery in the rare earth sector due to trade tensions and international instability. The integration of major rare earth groups and stricter management of overseas mines are expected to enhance industry concentration. The report anticipates a recovery in rare earth prices as export demands increase. Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand from various sectors. The report also highlights the importance of cobalt and nickel, with supply control policies in resource-rich countries likely to support prices [9][10]. Market Performance - The report notes that the metal materials and mining sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 3.05% increase compared to a 1.13% rise in the index. The precious metals sector saw a 5.13% increase, while the rare earth sector rose by 5.93% [17][20]. Price Movements - Recent price movements indicate a general upward trend in base metals, with LME copper and aluminum prices increasing by 1.8% and 0.1%, respectively. Precious metals also saw gains, with Comex silver rising by 9.2% and SHFE silver by 7.7% [26][29]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and cost advantages in the copper and aluminum sectors, as well as those in the rare earth and tungsten markets, to capitalize on potential price recoveries [9][10].