（原标题：从"比特币飞轮策略"到华尔街背书 "持币大户"Strategy(MSTR.US)即将重拾狂野涨势?） 智通财经APP获悉，华尔街知名投资机构Canaccord Genuity近日发布研报称，重申对于迈克尔·塞勒 (Michael Saylor)所执掌的Strategy公司(MSTR.US)的"买入"评级，对于该公司的未来12个月内目标价仍然 定为 464美元。 截至上周五美股收盘，Strategy股价收于334.410美元，意味着在Canaccord Genuity看来这家有着"比特币 持仓大户"以及"比特币影子股"称号的公司股价有望重拾牛市轨迹——基于464美元目标价意味有着近 40%的潜在上行空间。 来自Canaccord Genuity的股票分析师团队在研报中表示，Strategy是当前最值得买入的强劲成长型股票 之一，并且重申高达464美元的目标价。该机构的分析师们认为，Strategy的优先股销售是推动股东价值 的显著驱动因素，称其今年通过这些发行筹集了超过60亿美元现金，使其"跻身美国资本市场历史上最 成功的筹资案例之一"。 该机构的分析师们补充称，尽管比特币价格的剧烈波动性是一个相当大 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) has recently surpassed the critical price level of $112,000 but failed to maintain it, raising questions about the potential for a final market rally this year [2] - Historical data analysis indicates that BTC's previous bull market peaks occurred in November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, with respective prices of approximately $1,163, $19,800, and $68,789 [3][4] - The upcoming bull market in 2025 is projected to peak between late November and mid-December, based on historical patterns, although this is not guaranteed [4][6] Market Characteristics - The first bull market in 2013 was driven by geopolitical factors such as the Cyprus financial crisis, with significant global attention and the rise of the Chinese market as key drivers [3] - The second bull market in 2017 was fueled by the ICO boom and massive retail and media participation, particularly in South Korea and Japan [3] - The third bull market in 2021 saw institutional involvement from figures like Elon Musk and companies like MicroStrategy and BlackRock, alongside the rise of NFTs, DeFi, and Web3 narratives [4] Future Projections - The current market cycle (2021-2024) shows similarities to previous cycles, with expectations of a peak in late 2025, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts, the impact of the Bitcoin halving, and institutional support from ETFs [6][8] - The BTC four-year cycle suggests that the price could exceed $180,000 by the end of 2025, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and market dynamics [8] Price Comparisons - Historical price comparisons show that BTC has increased from approximately $11,000 in July 2020 to nearly $110,000 in July 2025, representing a total increase of about 1000% [10] - Ethereum (ETH) has also seen significant growth, rising from around $350 in July 2020 to approximately $2,770 in July 2025, reflecting a total increase of about 790% [10] Market Sentiment - The true bull market is characterized not just by price increases but by the release of macroeconomic pressures, positioning Bitcoin as a potential "lifeboat" in times of financial distress [11]

智通财经APP获悉，全球最大市值加密货币——比特币的交易价格首次突破11万美元这一重大关口创历史新高，目前已经徘徊在11.1万美元附近。随着机构 投资者们对于比特币ETF的买入规模，以及对于比特币本身的避险投资需求在特朗普政府主导的关税与限制移民政策引发"抛售美国资产"的情绪大幅升温之 际不断攀升，加之美国稳定币立法取得积极进展，交易员们对这款加密货币鼻祖的前景愈发看涨。 此外，对于比特币看涨情绪而言，金融市场对于特朗普掌舵下的美国政府财政赤字激增前景的担忧与日俱增，以及日本央行持续推进量化紧缩政策之后日本 国债抛售浪潮蔓延至全球，导致全球资金掀起大规模抛售美债的极端风暴，也是推动有着"新晋避险资产"与"避险新王"称号的比特币近期大涨的核心逻辑。 如何缓解所谓的"美债抛售风暴"，来自德意志银行的分析师George Saravelos指出，目前有两种解决方案：一是对特朗普的巨额减税法案进行"重大修订"，实 施更严格的财政政策(意味着更高税收，甚至可能导致美国经济衰退);二是使美元贬值，增长美债对外国买家的吸引力。 Saravelos进一步提出，特朗普减税法案和美国3A评级被剥夺共同催化之下美国财政风险加剧，其中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin price may exceed $120,000 in Q2, driven by deteriorating confidence in dollar assets and a shift towards other currency assets [1][3] Group 1: Bitcoin Price Predictions - Standard Chartered's bullish target for Bitcoin suggests a potential increase of approximately 25% from current levels [1] - The bank anticipates Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, indicating a potential rise of about 65% from the Q2 target and 110% from current prices [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury term premium is at a 12-year high, which is closely related to Bitcoin's price movements [3] - Major holders, referred to as "whales," are significantly increasing their Bitcoin holdings, with MicroStrategy recently purchasing 15,355 Bitcoins for $1.42 billion [3] Group 3: Investment Trends - Recent ETF fund flows indicate a shift of risk-averse capital from gold to Bitcoin, positioning Bitcoin as a new safe-haven asset [4] - Bitcoin's price has shown a 51% increase compared to a year ago, despite being relatively flat year-to-date [4] Group 4: Economic Context - Analysts from various investment institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, suggest that the dollar may continue to weaken due to ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty in tariff policies [5] - The long-term depreciation of the dollar is expected to persist until certain economic conditions, such as interest rate cuts and trade agreements, are met [5]