Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's current account surplus increased by 186% year-on-year to $294.1 billion, marking a historical high for the same period[2] - The current account surplus accounted for 3.2% of GDP, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, remaining within the internationally recognized range of ±4%[2] Trade Performance - The goods trade surplus grew by 58% year-on-year to $456.7 billion, while customs-calibrated goods trade surplus increased by 34% to $584.5 billion, resulting in a significant gap of $127.8 billion between the two measures[3] - China's goods exports accounted for 14.2% of global share, a 0.1 percentage point increase year-on-year, achieving a historical high for the same period[4] Capital Account Dynamics - The capital account deficit rose by 212% year-on-year to $334.8 billion, primarily due to a shift from a surplus of $5.2 billion in the previous year to a deficit of $288.2 billion in short-term capital[12] - Net outflow of domestic investment increased by 179.4 billion to $385.9 billion, while foreign investment inflow remained relatively stable, decreasing by $26.1 billion to $67.7 billion[12] Foreign Investment Trends - Net outflow of foreign debt and equity investments increased, with net outflow of securities investment rising from $96.9 billion to $154.7 billion[16] - Foreign direct investment net inflow turned from a net outflow of $3.9 billion in the previous year to a net inflow of $31.9 billion[23] Foreign Exchange Reserves - Foreign exchange reserves increased by $115.1 billion to $3.32 trillion, the highest level since 2016, driven by the expanded current account surplus and reduced direct investment deficit[36] - The valuation effect from currency and asset price changes contributed significantly to the increase in foreign exchange reserves[36] Outlook on Debt Position - The increase in domestic capital outflow has driven the private sector's net foreign position to turn positive, indicating a potential transition towards becoming a mature creditor nation[38] - As of June 2025, the private sector's net foreign assets reached $181.9 billion, suggesting that 2025 may mark the beginning of China's journey towards becoming a mature creditor nation[41]

[ 简单比较，当前银行购汇均价较前期供汇均价升值约1.2%，符合"低买高卖"的特征，加之人民币/美元 还是负利差（2年期和10年期中美国债收益率差负值仍有2个多百分点）。可见，银行在当前价位回补之 前"垫付"的美元空头并非不理性。 ] 2025年，面对极限关税施压，人民币汇率（如非特指，本文均指人民币对美元双边汇率）逆势上涨。自 2025年3月起，反映境内主要外汇供求关系的银行即远期（含期权）结售汇（下称"银行结售汇"）已连 续6个月顺差，持续时间为2021年8月以来最长。市场上，关于前期境内市场主体因人民币单边下行而持 有外汇，现受升值预期影响可能大举结汇的传闻不绝于耳。然而，目前尚未从数据上获得支持。 购汇意愿下降驱动外汇供求关系逆转 2005年"7·21"汇改以来，境内外汇供求与人民币汇率走势大概可分为以下六个阶段：（1）2014年6月之 前，境内外汇总体供大于求，人民币涨多跌少，面临单边升值压力；（2）2014年7月至2017年底，境内 外汇总体供不应求，人民币跌多涨少，面临单边贬值压力；（3）2018年初至2020年5月，在中美经贸摩 擦和世纪疫情冲击的背景下，境内外汇总体供不应求，人民币继续面临下 ...

银行在当前价位回补之前"垫付"的美元空头并非不理性。 2025年，面对极限关税施压，人民币汇率（如非特指，本文均指人民币对美元双边汇率）逆势上涨。自2025年3月 起，反映境内主要外汇供求关系的银行即远期（含期权）结售汇（下称"银行结售汇"）已连续6个月顺差，持续时 间为2021年8月以来最长。市场上，关于前期境内市场主体因人民币单边下行而持有外汇，现受升值预期影响可能 大举结汇的传闻不绝于耳。然而，目前尚未从数据上获得支持。 购汇意愿下降驱动外汇供求关系逆转 2005年"7·21"汇改以来，境内外汇供求与人民币汇率走势大概可分为以下六个阶段：（1）2014年6月之前，境内 外汇总体供大于求，人民币涨多跌少，面临单边升值压力；（2）2014年7月至2017年底，境内外汇总体供不应 求，人民币跌多涨少，面临单边贬值压力；（3）2018年初至2020年5月，在中美经贸摩擦和世纪疫情冲击的背景 下，境内外汇总体供不应求，人民币继续面临下行压力；（4）2020年6月至2023年6月，受益于国内经济率先复苏 和汇率弹性增加，境内外汇总体供大于求，人民币先涨后跌、双向波动；（5）2023年7月至2025年2月，在中美经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sustainability of the private sector's net foreign assets in China is crucial for the country to transition into a mature net creditor nation, especially as the depreciation of the RMB approaches its end [1][7]. Group 1: Changes in Private Sector's Net Foreign Position - China's private sector's net foreign position has shifted from negative to positive, with a net asset of $785 billion as of Q1 2025, marking the first positive net position since 2004 [1][9]. - The private sector's net foreign liabilities increased from $3,778 billion at the end of 2004 to a peak of $23,732 billion by mid-2015, influenced by the long-term appreciation of the RMB [2][3]. - Following the "8·11" exchange rate reform in 2015, the private sector's net foreign liabilities began to decline, reaching $11,130 billion by the end of 2016, a reduction of 53% from the peak [3]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has experienced a general depreciation since early 2022, with the onshore midpoint and spot rates falling by 11.3% and 12.7% respectively by the end of 2024 [5]. - In 2025, the RMB began to appreciate against the backdrop of a weakening USD, with the dollar index dropping by 10.8% in the first half of the year [5][6]. - The exchange rate fluctuations have played a significant role in adjusting the private sector's foreign liabilities, with a negative valuation effect of $5,796 billion due to the RMB's depreciation from Q2 2022 to Q1 2025 [10]. Group 3: Implications for China's Net Creditor Status - The transition to a positive net foreign position is supported by a structural trade surplus, which has been a significant factor in maintaining stable foreign exchange reserves [9][13]. - The reduction in private sector net liabilities is attributed to increased foreign asset holdings and a decrease in foreign liabilities, with a net outflow of $11,235 billion in foreign investments [9]. - If the trend of positive net foreign assets continues, 2025 could mark the year China officially becomes a mature net creditor nation, although potential risks from trade surplus fluctuations and exchange rate volatility remain [13].