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国金期货烧碱周度报告-20250428
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 13:41
Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report on Caustic Soda - Writing Time: April 28, 2025 - Review Period: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning - Consulting License Number: Z0001219 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of caustic soda futures changed to the 2509 contract, with a slight decline in the price center. As the May Day holiday approaches, the average capacity utilization and inventory of national caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above continue to decline. The overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand side is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The market is expected to remain weak. [3] Summary by Section I. Market Review - **Price**: As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,439 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.93%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly output of caustic soda decreased by 11,500 tons to 820,200 tons, and the weekly output of flake caustic soda decreased by 300 tons to 100,600 tons. The weekly loss of caustic soda was 60,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the previous week. It is expected that the upstream maintenance loss will decrease next week. [4] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 408,500 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The storage capacity ratio of domestic liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 24.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest regions increased month - on - month, while those in North China, East China, and South China decreased month - on - month. [4] - **Cost**: The price of raw salt remained stable. The price of sea salt in Shandong was 235 yuan/ton, the price of well - mine salt in Central China was 250 yuan/ton, and the price of lake salt in the Northwest was 240 yuan/ton. [5] - **Profit**: The weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 347 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 46.41%. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased this week, and the price of liquid chlorine remained weakly stable, resulting in an increase in the overall chlor - alkali profit. [5] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 79.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%. The spot price of alumina remained stable this week, with a slight increase in some areas. As of April 25, the average price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,890 yuan/ton. The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream viscose was 77.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%; the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 60.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%. [5] - **Export**: The export quotation of liquid caustic soda decreased. This week, the export quotation of 50% caustic soda in East China was FOB 400 - 410 US dollars/ton. [5] II. Illustrations - The report includes six figures, namely "Domestic Caustic Soda Operating Rate", "Domestic Sample Enterprises' Liquid Caustic Soda In - plant Inventory", "Domestic Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Capacity Utilization Rate", "Caustic Soda Main Contract Basis", "Spot Liquid Caustic Soda Price", and "Caustic Soda Main Continuous K - line (Daily)". [7][10][11][14][15]