Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic liquid caustic soda market in China is experiencing weak transaction volumes, with prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda rising in Shandong and Guangdong, while most regions remain stable [1] - In Shandong, increased downstream demand and limited inventory among chlor-alkali enterprises have contributed to price increases for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda [1] - The main market prices for 32% ion membrane caustic soda in Shandong are between 800-885 RMB/ton, and for 50% ion membrane caustic soda, they are between 1300-1320 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of July 10, the weighted average operating rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country is 85.19%, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [2] - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China is 187,300 tons, showing a slight decrease of 1.06% from July 2, while in Shandong, the inventory increased by 1.93% to 58,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall spot market remains stable, with some regions experiencing price increases due to temporary demand support from key downstream sectors [3] - The supply-demand imbalance is limited, but high profits are encouraging increased production, while trading activity between alumina plants and traders is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, driven by macroeconomic sentiment and speculative demand [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the caustic soda market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract price showing a significant increase of 3.80% [1] - The supply-demand fundamentals for caustic soda are expected to change minimally, but if the trend of using soda to supplement chlorine continues, there is an expectation for liquid chlorine prices to recover [1] - Some caustic soda production facilities may temporarily reduce output due to shrinking overall profits, which could lead to a warming market sentiment in the short term [1] Group 2 - The supply side remains robust, with upstream facilities operating at high capacity, resulting in a weekly operating rate of 80.5%, down 2.0% from the previous period [2] - Demand from the main downstream sector, alumina, is recovering, but other non-alumina demands remain weak, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [2] - The overall supply-demand fundamentals are weak, but repair expectations may offset this, with a focus on the sustainability of downstream replenishment [2] Group 3 - The cost side is supported by lower coal and electricity prices, while liquid chlorine prices are rebounding due to maintenance in Shandong [2] - The liquid chlorine inventory stands at 38.42 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.6% [2] - The market is expected to remain broadly loose, with price pressures likely to shift downward due to accelerated caustic soda expansion and limited demand growth [2]

Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report on Caustic Soda - Writing Time: April 28, 2025 - Review Period: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning - Consulting License Number: Z0001219 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of caustic soda futures changed to the 2509 contract, with a slight decline in the price center. As the May Day holiday approaches, the average capacity utilization and inventory of national caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above continue to decline. The overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand side is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The market is expected to remain weak. [3] Summary by Section I. Market Review - **Price**: As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,439 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.93%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly output of caustic soda decreased by 11,500 tons to 820,200 tons, and the weekly output of flake caustic soda decreased by 300 tons to 100,600 tons. The weekly loss of caustic soda was 60,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the previous week. It is expected that the upstream maintenance loss will decrease next week. [4] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 408,500 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The storage capacity ratio of domestic liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 24.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest regions increased month - on - month, while those in North China, East China, and South China decreased month - on - month. [4] - **Cost**: The price of raw salt remained stable. The price of sea salt in Shandong was 235 yuan/ton, the price of well - mine salt in Central China was 250 yuan/ton, and the price of lake salt in the Northwest was 240 yuan/ton. [5] - **Profit**: The weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 347 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 46.41%. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased this week, and the price of liquid chlorine remained weakly stable, resulting in an increase in the overall chlor - alkali profit. [5] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 79.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%. The spot price of alumina remained stable this week, with a slight increase in some areas. As of April 25, the average price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,890 yuan/ton. The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream viscose was 77.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%; the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 60.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%. [5] - **Export**: The export quotation of liquid caustic soda decreased. This week, the export quotation of 50% caustic soda in East China was FOB 400 - 410 US dollars/ton. [5] II. Illustrations - The report includes six figures, namely "Domestic Caustic Soda Operating Rate", "Domestic Sample Enterprises' Liquid Caustic Soda In - plant Inventory", "Domestic Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Capacity Utilization Rate", "Caustic Soda Main Contract Basis", "Spot Liquid Caustic Soda Price", and "Caustic Soda Main Continuous K - line (Daily)". [7][10][11][14][15]

Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report on Caustic Soda - Writing Time: April 14, 2025 - Review Period: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning - Consulting License Number: Z0001219 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report Core View - Affected by the overall macro - sentiment, caustic soda futures opened lower last week. After a small rebound, it continued to weaken, hitting a new low for the year. With high inventory and high production, the future trend is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement progress and macro - policy changes [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - **Price**: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the macro - environment, caustic soda futures opened lower. The SH main contract continued to find the bottom, hitting an annual low of 2,267 yuan/ton on Wednesday. As of April 11, 2025, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of 5.60% [4]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.32 million tons to 83.26 million tons, and flake caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.88 million tons to 10.61 million tons. The weekly loss of caustic soda was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.83 million tons compared with the previous week. It is expected that the upstream maintenance loss will increase next week [4]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 0.65% month - on - month and 5.51% year - on - year. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 27.82%, an increase of 0.34% month - on - month [5]. - **Cost**: The price of raw salt was lowered again. The price of sea salt in Shandong was 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The price of well - mine salt in Central China remained at 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of lake salt in the Northwest remained at 240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profit**: The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 533 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.61% compared with the previous week. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was continuously lowered this week, while the price of liquid chlorine increased, resulting in a decline in the overall chlor - alkali profit [5]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 78.88%, a decrease of 4.49% month - on - month. The price of alumina continued to decline this week. As of April 11, the average price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,870 yuan/ton. The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream viscose was 83.61%, a decrease of 4.46% month - on - month; the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.35%, a decrease of 4.13% month - on - month. In terms of exports, the quotation of liquid caustic soda was stable with minor fluctuations. The export quotation of 50% caustic soda in East China this week was FOB 440 - 450 US dollars/ton [5]. II. Illustrations - The report provides six illustrations including domestic caustic soda operating rate, domestic sample enterprise liquid caustic soda factory inventory, domestic viscose staple fiber industry capacity utilization rate, caustic soda main contract basis, spot liquid caustic soda price, and caustic soda main continuous K - line (daily line) [6][9][13]