Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic liquid caustic soda market in China is experiencing weak transaction volumes, with prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda rising in Shandong and Guangdong, while most regions remain stable [1] - In Shandong, increased downstream demand and limited inventory among chlor-alkali enterprises have contributed to price increases for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda [1] - The main market prices for 32% ion membrane caustic soda in Shandong are between 800-885 RMB/ton, and for 50% ion membrane caustic soda, they are between 1300-1320 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of July 10, the weighted average operating rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country is 85.19%, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [2] - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China is 187,300 tons, showing a slight decrease of 1.06% from July 2, while in Shandong, the inventory increased by 1.93% to 58,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall spot market remains stable, with some regions experiencing price increases due to temporary demand support from key downstream sectors [3] - The supply-demand imbalance is limited, but high profits are encouraging increased production, while trading activity between alumina plants and traders is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, driven by macroeconomic sentiment and speculative demand [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the caustic soda market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract price showing a significant increase of 3.80% [1] - The supply-demand fundamentals for caustic soda are expected to change minimally, but if the trend of using soda to supplement chlorine continues, there is an expectation for liquid chlorine prices to recover [1] - Some caustic soda production facilities may temporarily reduce output due to shrinking overall profits, which could lead to a warming market sentiment in the short term [1] Group 2 - The supply side remains robust, with upstream facilities operating at high capacity, resulting in a weekly operating rate of 80.5%, down 2.0% from the previous period [2] - Demand from the main downstream sector, alumina, is recovering, but other non-alumina demands remain weak, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [2] - The overall supply-demand fundamentals are weak, but repair expectations may offset this, with a focus on the sustainability of downstream replenishment [2] Group 3 - The cost side is supported by lower coal and electricity prices, while liquid chlorine prices are rebounding due to maintenance in Shandong [2] - The liquid chlorine inventory stands at 38.42 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.6% [2] - The market is expected to remain broadly loose, with price pressures likely to shift downward due to accelerated caustic soda expansion and limited demand growth [2]

撰写品种：烧碱 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期： 周度 研究员：何宁 咨询证号（Z0001219） 烧碱周度报告 本周烧碱期货主力换月至 2509 合约，价格重心小幅回落。临近五一假期，本周全 国 20 万吨及以上烧碱样本企业平均产能利用率和库存继续下行，山东地区复产与减产 企业并存，产能利用率上升 4.0%至 91.0%。周内烧碱价格小幅上行，前期低价货源减 少后，非铝下游补库意愿变弱，整体市场供应较为充足。氧化铝检修产能增多，整体供 应也已缓解，价格小幅回升，采购现货以长单交付为主。氧化铝新增产能陆续投产，对 烧碱需求存在一定增量预期。下周即将开启五一小长假，部分企业选择降价刺激出货以 避免库存积压。当前市场对于烧碱缺乏有效刺激，供应端货源充足，需求端企业按需采 购为主，整体市场预计仍然偏弱运行。 一、行情回顾 截至 2025 年 4 月 25 日，烧碱主力合约收盘价为 2439 元/吨，较上周下跌 23 元/吨，跌幅为 0.93%。 供应方面，烧碱周度产量环比减少 1.15 万吨至 82.02 万吨，片碱周度产量环比减 少 0.03 万吨至 10.06 万吨。烧碱周度损失量 6.04 ...

撰写品种：烧碱 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 14 日 回顾周期： 周度 研究员：何宁 咨询证号（Z0001219） 烧碱周度报 受整体宏观情绪影响，上周一开盘国内商品跳空低开，能化板块遭受冲击，周内烧 碱小幅反弹后继续走弱，主力合约周三盘中跌至 2267 元/吨，再次刷新年内价格低点。 截至 4 月 10 日，全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 47.13 万吨，环比下 跌 0.65%，同比下调 5.51%。山东地区主力下游采购液碱价格周内再次下调，周边市 场成交价格跟跌。在目前高库存的情况下，市场多持观望态度，下游补库意愿较低。主 要下游氧化铝供应压力仍存，仓单库存近 25 万吨，现货价格持续走低，目前氧化铝厂 亏损进一步加剧，开工率或将进一步下调，对于烧碱需求呈负反馈。非铝下游受关税政 策影响较大，对于烧碱需求谨慎。当前烧碱在高开工率和高库存的局面下，预计未来走 势仍将偏弱，后市需关注下游采购进度及宏观政策变化带来的扰动。 库存情况，全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 47.13 万吨(湿吨)，环 比下跌 0.65%，同比下调 5.51%。本周全国液碱样本企业库容比 27.82 ...