| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2358 | 39 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 278829 | 9592 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -10586 | 14324 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | 695140 | 80795 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2354 | 30 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2410 | 27 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -10586 | 14324 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 770 | -10 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 900 | -30 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2406.25 | -31.25 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 48 | -71 | | 上游情况 | 原盐:山东:主流价(日,元/吨) | ...

C 国金期货 观投研丨产业链周报 研究品种：纯碱 成文日期：20250622 报告周期：周度 研究员：何宁 从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219 现货 整体来看短期 纯碱期货 ， 具体如下： 纯碱期货价格形成有力支撑。 成本端：纯碱生产成本中燃料占比高,如果原盐、煤炭、天然气 等价格上涨,将提高纯碱生产成本,企业可能会通过提高产品价格来 转移成本压力,从而对期货和现货价格形成支撑,使盘面走强。但如 果成本下降, 如近期纯碱成本持续回落, 会促使成本端支撑不断下调. 进一步加剧价格下探动能，导致盘面走弱。 图 4：纯碱现货价格季节图 二 现货 分析 三、期现结合分析 宏观与政策影响 现货市场: 人民币贬值 (USD/CNY 突破 7.2) 对出口型企业 (如 华东纯碱出口至东南亚）形成支撑,现货出口报价环比涨 5-8%,但 内需疲弱仍占主导。 期货市场：美联储降息预期升温（9 月降息概率超 60%），大 宗商品整体估值修复,纯碱期货受宏观情绪带动短期反弹,但产业逻 辑（高库存）压制涨幅。 期货预期: 期货市场对下半年光伏装机旺季存在预期 (如 Q4 装 图片来源:国金期货官网数据宝 ...

近期，纯碱依旧处于震荡下跌趋势，主力2509合约最低跌至1150元／吨附近，暂时未出现止跌企稳迹 象。5—6月，博源银根、河南金山、山东海化等企业启动检修。尽管检修企业较多，但供应压力未得到 根本缓解。另外，今年以来需求端持续疲软，浮法玻璃日熔量较去年高位下降近2万吨，光伏玻璃日熔 量同比减少13%，纯碱需求同比缩减明显。在供过于求格局下，纯碱价格持续下跌，利润受到挤压，上 游企业套保意愿强烈，进一步压制期价反弹空间。 今年纯碱行业集中检修期提前，往年7—8月开启夏季集中检修，但今年5—6月行业检修降负明显。我们 认为，纯碱行业提前启动集中检修的原因有两方面：一方面，高库存压力倒逼企业主动收缩供应。当前 纯碱厂家库存加交割库库存突破200万吨，创历史新高，企业面临巨大的去库压力，需要通过提前检修 来减少供应，从而缓解库存压力。另一方面，需求端持续走弱加剧行业悲观预期，浮法玻璃和光伏玻璃 日熔量均明显下降，纯碱需求收缩，企业为避免库存进一步累积，选择在需求淡季提前检修。 未来，产能进一步扩张的预期迫使企业抢占市场先机。连云港碱业已于今年5月投产，远兴2期280万吨 产能在年底有投产预期。在需求收缩的情况下，企业 ...

2025年5月份，新华.中盐两碱工业盐价格指数报947.78点，较上期(2025年4月)下跌15.96点，跌幅 1.66%；较基期(2018年1月)下跌52.22点，跌幅5.22%；较周期内最高点1736.66点(2022年4月)下跌788.88 点，跌幅4.43%；较周期内最低点816.2点(2020年8月)上涨131.58点，涨幅16.12%。 分区域来看，2025年5月，安徽、江苏、重庆、云南两碱工业盐出厂价格较2025年4月上涨；湖北、湖 南、四川、辽宁两碱工业盐出厂价格较2025年4月持平；陕西、江西、河南、新疆、河北、山东、天津 两碱工业盐出厂价格较2025年4月下跌。 分价格区间来看，本期两碱工业盐单价在300元／吨及以上的地区有3个，分别是河南、云南、辽宁；两 碱工业盐单价在300元／吨以下的地区有14个，分别是陕西、安徽、江苏、湖北、江西、重庆、新疆、 河北、山东、湖南、青海、四川、天津、宁夏。 5月份我国原盐市场呈现供应增长而需求平稳态势。五一假期结束，多地持续开展密集扒盐产盐工作， 月内海盐市场供应量显著上升，特别是河北、山东、江苏等主产区的产量增长明显。然而，下游碱企采 购需求跟进有限 ...

综合来看，2025年纯碱生产成本较2024年年底下降170~200元／吨，纯碱的价格支撑下移至1100~1150 元／吨，价格压力下移至1400~1450元／吨。从上市公司年报可知，2023年开始，国内纯碱企业或采取 技改降低能耗，或扩大产能降低单位成本，或精简人员降低人工成本，行业下行周期成本也趋于下行， 纯碱价格重心持续下移。展望后市，当前250元／吨的原盐价格，中期仍有50~80元／吨的压缩空间， 620元／吨的动力煤价格仍有100元／吨的潜在下跌空间，纯碱生产成本理论上有100~150元／吨的下跌 空间，中长期纯碱价格极值或出现在950~1000元／吨。 下游依旧承压，需求疲软难改 除产能扩张带来的压力外，近一年纯碱价格加速下跌还受到终端需求疲软的拖累。2024年下半年开始， 纯碱价格跌破氨碱成本支撑，主要是受浮法玻璃和光伏玻璃用碱需求下降影响。2024年6月底，国内浮 法玻璃和光伏玻璃日熔量之和一度升至286875T/D，创历史新高，但2024年7月开始该数据快速下降， 2025年2月浮法和光伏日熔量之和仅237415T/D，较高位下降近50000T/D，折合纯碱日需求量下降10000 吨。受光伏行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the domestic urea market will face an expected increase in supply and a phased release of demand, with enterprise inventories likely to decline seasonally. However, the upside of urea prices is significantly limited, and the futures market is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [4]. - In the short term, the downside of the soda ash futures market is limited, but in the long term, the market will continue to face pressure. In June, production device maintenance or emergencies may still disrupt the market, and there is an expectation of a continued recovery in rigid demand [5]. - In June, the glass market will still face expectations of increased supply and weakened demand, with enterprise inventory pressure likely to further increase, and the market downturn is difficult to improve significantly [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industrial Chain - **Futures Prices**: As of May 30, the monthly decline of the urea main contract was 3.9%, the soda ash main contract was 11.58%, and the glass main contract was 9.83%. In May, the prices of related futures varieties were weak, with urea performing relatively strongly and soda ash the weakest [4][5][6][13][14]. - **Futures - related Varieties**: In May, the prices of related futures varieties trended weakly, with urea showing relative resilience and soda ash being the weakest [14]. - **Coal Prices**: In May, the prices of some coal varieties declined. For example, the monthly changes in the ex - works price of Qinhuangdao Youhun steam coal (5500) and the pit - mouth price of Shaanxi Yulin smoky coal (Q5500) were - 41 yuan/ton and - 51 yuan/ton respectively [15]. - **LNG Prices**: In May, the prices of some LNG products declined. For example, the monthly changes in the prices of Zhongmei Ordos, Ningxia Hanas, and Shaanxi Hancheng were - 320 yuan/ton, - 170 yuan/ton, and - 190 yuan/ton respectively [18]. - **Raw Salt Prices**: In May, the prices of raw salt in some regions declined slightly [19]. - **Synthetic Ammonia Prices**: In May, the price of Shandong synthetic ammonia decreased by 5.41% [20]. 3.2 Urea: Demand May Follow Up in June, but the Upside of Prices is Significantly Limited - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of urea showed mixed trends, with the mainstream regional price fluctuations ranging from - 40 to + 40 yuan/ton [23]. - **Supply**: In May, the urea supply fluctuated at a high level, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. In June, if two new plants in Xinjiang are put into operation as planned, the supply level will further increase [4]. - **Demand**: In May, the follow - up of urea demand was relatively cautious. After the wheat harvest in the north, the demand for corn fertilizer and export demand will support the demand, but the price is difficult to rise significantly [4]. - **Inventory**: In May, the urea enterprise inventory first decreased and then increased, remaining at a high - level year - on - year. If the agricultural and export demand follows up smoothly in June, the enterprise inventory is expected to continue to transfer to ports and the middle and lower reaches [4]. - **Export**: In April, China's urea export volume was 0.23 million tons, with little impact on the domestic market. The total export volume from May to September is about 2 million tons, and the export volume is unlikely to change significantly later [4]. - **International Market**: In May, the international urea prices mostly declined, while China's FOB price increased significantly. At the end of May, India issued a new round of international urea tenders [67][69]. - **Related Products**: In May, most phosphate fertilizer prices rose, while potash fertilizer prices showed partial declines and partial increases [71]. 3.3 Soda Ash: The Downside of the Short - term Futures Market is Limited, but the Long - term Market Continues to Face Pressure - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of soda ash showed local weak declines [78]. - **Basis**: In May, the basis of soda ash (market average price) strengthened slightly [84]. - **Supply**: In May, the soda ash supply level decreased significantly, with the industry's start - up rate dropping to a year - on - year low, and the output at the end of May decreased by 8.48% compared to the end of April [90][95]. - **Inventory**: At the end of May, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 2.86% compared to the end of April. In June, the enterprise inventory may be depleted, but there is a risk of anti - seasonal accumulation [5][100]. - **Export**: In April, China's soda ash export volume was 170,600 tons, a decrease of 12.21% compared to March. The export volume remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and the possibility of maintaining a high level in the future is still relatively high [5]. - **Profit**: In May, the production profits of ammonia - soda and combined - soda enterprises decreased compared to the same period last year [107]. 3.4 Glass: Demand in June Still Faces Challenges, and the Market Downturn is Difficult to Improve Temporarily - **Futures Prices**: In May, the glass futures prices continued the unilateral downward trend, with the main 09 contract breaking through the 1000 - yuan mark [6]. - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of glass mostly declined, with the mainstream 5mm large - plate market prices dropping by 20 - 120 yuan/ton throughout the month [6]. - **Supply**: In May, the glass production lines had alternating water - release and ignition, with supply first decreasing and then increasing. In June and July, there is an expectation of increased supply, but the implementation of production line commissioning needs attention [6]. - **Inventory**: In May, the glass enterprise inventory remained at a relatively high level in recent years, and in the later rainy season, the enterprise inventory pressure may continue to increase [6][7]. - **Demand**: The demand decline rate exceeds the glass production capacity decline rate. In June, after the rainy season starts, the glass demand will be restricted, and the enterprise inventory pressure may reappear [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1][7]. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.05 percentage points, with a decline of 1.23% over the past week [3][13]. - Key sub-industries showing positive performance include rubber additives (16.99%), polyurethane (3.37%), carbon black (3.30%), titanium dioxide (2.38%), and spandex (2.33%) [14]. - The report highlights significant price increases in several chemical products, with sodium rising by 18.03%, coal tar (Tai Steel Coking) by 11.43%, and acrylic acid by 10.79% [20][25]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The basic chemical index decreased by 1.23%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.18%, indicating a relative underperformance of the basic chemical sector [3][13]. - The top-performing sub-industries included rubber additives and polyurethane, while the overall sector ranked 21st among all sectors [14]. Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were sodium (18.03%), coal tar (Tai Steel Coking) (11.43%), acrylic acid (10.79%), international phosphate rock (10.00%), and coal tar (Yangtze River Delta) (7.84%) [20][25]. - Conversely, the products with the largest price declines included trichloromethane (-6.81%), butadiene (-5.41%), and raw salt (-4.00%) [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key sectors: 1. Refrigerants, with companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. recommended. 2. Chemical fibers, with a focus on Huafeng Chemical and Xin Fengming. 3. Quality stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng. 4. Tire sector, recommending Sailun Tire and Senqilin. 5. Agricultural chemicals, with a focus on Yara International and Salt Lake Co. 6. Growth stocks like Blue Sky Technology and Shengquan Group [7][42].

齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点于洋通讯员严纲轩 业务拓展期间，烟台港充分发挥港口连接陆海的关键枢纽作用以及大莱龙铁路西起潍坊东到烟台龙口港的优势，构建"港口卸船-铁路场 站-工厂生产线"海铁联运模式，实现"国外船舶+国内铁路+内陆企业"无缝衔接，火车发运量稳定至两天三列。同时，烟台港依托山东港 口一体化平台，强化与潍坊港的融合协作，开辟"龙口港分拨-支线驳船-潍坊港分销"的"水转水"通道。通过24小时动态监控，双通道运输 时效同比提升20%，综合物流成本下降4%，货物亏耗率稳定控制在0.5%以下。"海运、铁运安全性高、运量大、绿色又环保，烟台港精 益求精的服务态度和优质高效的作业水平已在业界树立了良好的口碑。"客户表示。 作为烟台港口型国家物流枢纽的建设运营主体和黄河流域陆海多式联运门户枢纽，烟台港积极对接腹地化工企业需求，通过"四集成、一 平台"机制，联合铁路部门、山东远洋、物流集团、渤海湾港，集成"港口+航运+物流+铁路"资源，为客户提供集船舶代理、手续办理、 港口装卸、海铁联运、航运服务于一体的供应链综合物流服务，先后打造"烟台-淄博""烟台-东营"等海铁联运、水转水进口原盐物流大通 道，为客户带来实实在在的便利。 ...

纯碱期货价格自3月初创阶段性新高后，转头震荡下行，主力2509合约从最高1640元/吨下跌至最低1251元/吨，跌幅 23.7%。虽然纯碱期货价格已经跌至上市以来最低，但从基本面来看，纯碱供应过剩的格局并未改善，价格仍难言 底。 成本明显下行 原盐价格大幅下跌 原盐是生产纯碱的重要原料，大约占纯碱生产成本的25%。去年四季度以来，原盐价格持续下跌，并在今年2月开始加 速下行。截至5月23日，山东海盐市场价为210元/吨，较去年10月高点340元/吨下降130元/吨，跌幅38.2%。受此影 响，纯碱生产成本大幅下降。 煤炭价格持续下行 煤炭在纯碱生产成本中也占据较大的比重，主要集中在能源消耗和原料供应（如合成氨制备）环节，成本占比在30% 以上。自去年以来，煤炭价格持续下行。5500大卡动力煤内蒙古坑口价格从去年10月最高670元/吨下降至5月23日最低 410元/吨，跌幅38.8%。煤炭价格维持弱势，对纯碱生产企业非常有利。 纯碱成本跟随下降 据钢联数据，截至5月23日，华北地区氨碱法生产成本1285元/吨，较去年10月1720元/吨下降435元/吨，降幅25.3%， 生产毛利65.4元/吨，扭亏为盈；华东地 ...

| | | 烧碱产业日报 2025-05-21 抵触。SH2509下方关注2500附近支撑，上方关注2600附近压力。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2527 | -18 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 206363 | 5469 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -22505 | 145 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | 607664 | -7052 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2488 | -19 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2528 | -18 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -22505 | 145 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 840 | 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 950 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2625 | 0 基 ...