参股：雅江来水偏枯，大渡河水电放量在即。据国投电力公告，25Q3雅若江水电实现上网电量281.65亿 kwh，同比-16.0%：预计主要受7、8月份来水同比偏枯影响。大渡河方面，根据我们对高频水文数据的 跟踪，预计25Q3电量同比亦有所承压。受此影响，公司25Q3实现投资收益17.62亿元，同比-3.31亿元 或-15.8%。展望Q4，我们观测到10月以来雅著江流域二滩、锦屏一级、官地水电站平均出库流量同比 仍偏弱，且主要水库水位分位数低于24年同期水平，仍需跟踪后续蓄水进展。大渡河流域电站平均出库 流量同比表现则好于雅著江，与此同时，在建水电站有望进入密集投运期（沙坪一级、枕头坝二级、双 江口、金川4座电站合计352万千瓦，其中沙坪一级水电站首台机组已于25年10月投运），从而为公司贡 献业绩增量。 投资建议：我们预计2025-2027年公司分别实现归母净利润47.67、51.22、52.86亿元，对应PE为15.06x、 14.02x、13.58x，维持推荐评级。 风险提示：来水不及预期的风险，上网电价超预期下调的风险等。 事件：公司发布2025年三季报。25Q1-3实现营收11.40亿元，同比+4.95 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.61 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.51 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 360 million yuan, a significant increase of 41.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.48 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [1][4]. - The decline in investment income in Q4 2024 negatively impacted the overall annual performance, particularly from the Yalong River Hydropower, which saw a net profit decrease of 4.5% year-on-year [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the Yalong River Hydropower's net profit was 8.27 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a significant drop of approximately 77% in Q4 compared to the same period in 2023 [2]. - The company's Q4 2024 net profit was 86 million yuan, a decrease of 84.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in investment income from Yalong River Hydropower [2]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.08 billion, 5.28 billion, and 5.54 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.1, 15.5, and 14.8 [4][5]. Operational Highlights - The company’s controlling and equity investments contributed to a profit increase in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.2% year-on-year growth [3][4]. - The operational performance in Q1 2025 was bolstered by the commissioning of the first unit of the Yinjing Hydropower Station, which has a capacity of 390,000 kilowatts [11]. - The company anticipates improved performance from Yalong River Hydropower in Q1 2025, with expected revenue growth driven by increased electricity prices and generation capacity [11].