昨天有读者朋友问我怎么看待白银基金和白银价格的问题，基金那是瞎搞，价格我说这种东西的涨和跌 没法预测，涨了说什么都对，跌了说什么都不对。 其实今年一直有朋友问我有色金属相关的问题，因为今年一直在涨，不管什么东西，涨的时间越长，关 注的人就会越多，涨得越猛，人们的情绪也会越激动。 不管是什么公司，还是什么产品，市场总是会分成三派，一派看多，另一派看空，看多的人因为利益相 关，只喜欢听好话，恨不得每天创新高。 看空的人自认为很理智，觉得涨了这么多，还看多，不是蠢就是坏。 典型的就是AI，你如果说摩尔线程或者沐曦股份是泡沫，你会被口水淹没，你如果说还会持续大涨， 你也会收到很多不好听的话。 市场绝大部分人就是这样非黑即白，只有极少数第三派，站在一旁理智观看。 交易最重要的逻辑，是有理有据买入，赚了理所当然，亏了也要认，但是要找原因避免犯重复的错误， 日积月累，平均年化收益率自然不会差。 那么对于有色金属来说，你想买入的理由是什么？ 如果是市场情绪高，涨势很好，众多机构和个人预测会继续创新高，那我建议三思。 如果是这样投资，赚了不知道怎么赚的，亏了也不会知道怎么亏的，永远都不会有进步，最差的结果， 你也要把能用的技术 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in A-shares, attributing it primarily to foreign capital flows rather than retail investors, highlighting the influence of U.S. interest rate changes on global capital movement [3][9]. Group 1: Retail Investors - Retail investors are not the main driving force behind the recent market surge, as their buying power is highly dispersed and lacks the ability to form a decisive impact [4][5]. - Retail investors tend to chase trends, buying during upswings but are unlikely to counteract downward trends [5][6]. Group 2: Main Players in the Market - The primary influence on the market comes from foreign capital, which is significantly affected by U.S. interest rate policies [6][9]. - When the U.S. raises interest rates, capital flows into the U.S., while a decrease leads to capital flowing out, impacting other markets, including China [7][8]. Group 3: Currency and Market Correlation - There is a notable correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the performance of the stock market, with RMB appreciation generally leading to stock market gains and depreciation leading to losses [13][15]. - The article illustrates that from April to the present, the RMB has been in an appreciation phase, which correlates with a stronger performance in A-shares [15][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While current foreign capital inflows are positive for the market, predicting future movements based on currency fluctuations remains challenging [19][20].

Group 1 - The New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) experienced a significant appreciation, rising over 1 NTD and surpassing the 30 mark, reaching a two-year high [1] - Despite the initial rise in the stock market by over 50 points, it quickly fell by more than 100 points due to concerns from investors regarding the impact of the soaring NTD on the profits of export-oriented companies [1] - The market displayed an unusual pattern of currency appreciation alongside stock market declines, which was later mitigated by intervention from regulatory authorities [1]