钴行业 - 继续看好钴板块投资机会 20250824 摘要 全球钴需求持续增长，预计 2025 年将达 24-25 万吨，美国收储计划虽 占比不高，但对市场需求拉动明显，尤其是在金属钴领域。 钴行业供需格局转变，刚果（金）出口禁令导致供应减少，叠加美国收 储及大圆柱电池对三元材料的需求拉动，预计 9 月起钴价将上涨。 受益于战略属性提升及收储计划，钢股行业有望迎来发展机遇，类似于 稀土和钨市场，行业供需格局正从商品属性向战略属性过渡。 美联储鸽派言论提振有色金属板块，钴、钨等战略金属投资机会显现， 市场对钴板块高度敏感，相关公司股票价格已大幅上涨。 预计未来几个月钴价将显著上涨，从目前的 26 万元/吨有望涨至 35 万 元以上，涨幅超过三分之一，华友钴业等公司有望受益。 有色金属板块整体估值不高，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业等公司市盈率仍维持 在较低水平，钴等小商品性价比突出，投资吸引力强。 铜市场淡季累库不明显，三季度需求有望恢复，四季度需求持续增长， 全球铜供应无明显增量，铜价上涨窗口期，看好金诚信、紫金矿业和铜 陵有色。 Q&A 钢股行业未来发展前景如何？ 由于战略属性提升及美国等国家收储计划实施，全行业公司均 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.093 billion RMB for H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.062 billion RMB, up 32.76% year-over-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 12.34%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points year-over-year, with Q2 gross margin at 13.06%, showing a slight quarter-over-quarter growth of 1.2% [2] - The company is actively expanding its mining resources and has announced a stock buyback plan to enhance investor confidence [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.365 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 9.53% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 16.82% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 562 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 18.76% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 12.61% [1] - The company’s total production of non-ferrous metals in H1 2025 reached 181,300 tons, including 48,100 tons of tin, 69,800 tons of zinc, 62,500 tons of copper, and 937 tons of lead [2] Market Conditions - Domestic refined tin social inventory decreased from 6,320 tons in January to 4,950 tons by the end of July 2025, while global exchange inventory fell from over 13,000 tons in April to below 10,000 tons in August [3] - The tight supply of tin resources is expected to support tin prices, with a positive outlook for price trends in 2026-2027 due to ongoing resource scarcity [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company has a tin smelting capacity of 80,000 tons per year and is planning to develop additional copper-tungsten mining capacity of 1.5 million tons per year [4] - The stock buyback plan announced on June 12, 2025, is expected to involve 100 million to 200 million RMB, aimed at boosting investor confidence [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards to 2.262 billion RMB, 2.599 billion RMB, and 2.838 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.37 RMB, 1.58 RMB, and 1.72 RMB [5] - The target price for the company is set at 21.72 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 15.86 times for 2025 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector continues to experience oscillations. With the easing of geopolitical tensions, there is a rise in optimistic sentiment, and domestic industrial products, especially those priced in the domestic market, are showing a warming trend, benefiting related non - ferrous metal varieties. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is increasing, and the US dollar index is falling. Each metal variety has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, the copper market is gradually entering a pattern of strong supply and demand, while the zinc market shows a situation of increasing supply and weak demand. [3][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector oscillates. The implementation of the anti - involution policy in multiple domestic industries has affected the non - ferrous metals sector. The suspension of a 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days, along with signs of easing geopolitical situations, has led to a partial recovery of non - ferrous metals. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, and the US dollar is relatively weak. [11] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal**: - **Copper**: Supply is abundant in the short term, but demand is gradually picking up. It is advisable to gradually buy at low prices. The short - term upper pressure range is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton. [3] - **Zinc**: In the short term, it may fluctuate and rise, but in the medium term, it is advisable to short at high prices. The upper pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000 yuan, and the lower support is around 21,800 - 22,000 yuan. [4] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is recommended to wait and see. For the 09 contract, the upper pressure range is 21,000 - 21,200 yuan, and the lower support range is 20,000 - 20,200 yuan. [5] - **Tin**: It is advisable to conduct short - term high - selling and low - buying operations. The upper pressure range is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan, and the lower support range is 250,000 - 255,000 yuan. [6] - **Lead**: It is advisable to hold long positions at low prices in the short term. The lower support is around 16,500 - 16,600 yuan, and the upper pressure is around 17,200 - 17,400 yuan. [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel can be shorted on rebounds in the medium term, while stainless steel shows a short - term upward trend. For nickel, the upper pressure is 123,000 - 125,000 yuan, and the lower support is 115,000 - 116,000 yuan. For stainless steel, the support is around 12,800 - 13,000 yuan, and the upper pressure is around 13,500 - 13,600 yuan. [8] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 79,020 yuan with a 0.00% change, zinc at 22,630 yuan with a 0.18% change, etc. [15] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and short positions of various non - ferrous metal contracts are provided, along with the influencing factors such as changes in the positions of major players. [17] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, and alumina are given. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 79,200 yuan/ton with a - 0.01% change. [18][20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal, relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fee changes, and price trends, which help to understand the supply - demand relationships and cost factors in the industry chain. [22][26][29] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various arbitrage - related charts for non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the ratio changes between domestic and foreign markets, basis trends, and price differences between different contracts, which can be used for arbitrage operations. [60][61][63] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, and aluminum are provided, which can assist in option trading strategies. [77][79][82]

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to stimulate overall demand recovery and drive up metal prices [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The hydropower project is anticipated to enhance demand for tungsten, particularly in the production of cutting tools and wear-resistant tools, with medium to long-term tungsten terminal demand expected to show steady growth [1] - The Nonferrous Metals 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which selects representative companies from the nonferrous metals industry in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering precious metals and industrial metals [1] - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Index reflects the overall performance of the nonferrous metals industry in the Chinese A-share market, exhibiting strong cyclicality and commodity attributes [1] Group 2: Investment Options - Investors without stock accounts may consider the Guotai CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link C (013219) and Guotai CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link A (013218) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market has shifted from a volatile state to a stronger one. The positive domestic policies have led to a rotation and upward movement in the industrial product sector, and the optimistic sentiment is still being digested. For the current rebound of non - ferrous metals, it is regarded as a staged rebound. In operation, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term but avoid over - chasing the rise, and beware of the ebbing of sentiment. Also, continue to pay attention to the resonance between the supply - demand drivers of each variety and the macro - environment, as well as the trend changes of the leading varieties in this round of rise [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend and showed stronger performance. Trade negotiations and tariff impacts were temporarily mitigated. The market focused on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data remained resilient, and the Fed's independent decision - making led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies to counter in - fighting were implemented, and measures to stabilize growth in key industrial sectors were expected. Major projects were initiated, driving the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend of new energy and black metals. Overseas, interest - rate cut expectations were still fluctuating, and trade negotiations were ongoing. Attention should be paid to trade - related information as August 1st approached [11]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has been decreasing recently. The total supply this week is expected to be lower than last week, and downstream consumption is expected to increase. The Shanghai copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, and there are conditions for the price to stop falling and rise. The support area is 77000 - 78000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strengthened recently. The supply is expected to increase further, and the demand is mixed. The zinc market is expected to have a staged rebound. It is advisable to be bullish in the short - term and bearish on rallies in the medium - term. The support area is 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is expected to be bullish. For the 09 contract, the support area is 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton. The alumina market is also expected to be bullish, with the 09 contract's support area at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton and the pressure area at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton. The cast aluminum alloy market is also recommended to be bullish in the short - term [5][13]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a situation of both weak supply and demand. Short - term bullish thinking is recommended. The support area is 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton. It is advisable to buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Lead**: The lead price has rebounded and then consolidated. The inventory has continued to rise, and downstream demand needs further recovery. The lead market is expected to continue to consolidate. The support area is 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market has a pattern of overall supply surplus. There are signs of supply contraction in some areas, but downstream demand is weak. The nickel price is expected to have a staged rebound, with the upper target at 123000 - 125000 yuan/ton and the lower support at 115000 - 116000 yuan/ton. The stainless steel market has a situation of both weak supply and demand. The support area is 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided. For example, the closing price of copper futures is 79740 yuan/ton, with a 0.05% increase; the closing price of zinc futures is 22945 yuan/ton, with a 0.09% increase; etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short changes, and influencing factors of different varieties such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given. For example, the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price is 79830 yuan/ton, with a 0.04% increase; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22770 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease; etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain charts are provided, such as the exchange copper inventory change, zinc inventory change, aluminum inventory and price trend comparison, etc. These charts help to analyze the supply - demand relationship and price trends in the industry chain [22][23][26] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are provided, including the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, aluminum basis and spot - futures price trend, etc., which are used for arbitrage analysis [49][51][53] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metals options are provided, such as the historical volatility of copper options, the weighted implied volatility of zinc options, the trading volume and open interest changes of aluminum options, etc., which are used for option analysis [65][67][69]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising and a favorable long-term outlook. The gold-silver ratio has reached a peak of over 100 this year, and as gold prices stabilize, silver prices are expected to rise to restore the ratio [5] - Industrial metal prices are experiencing fluctuations, with recent price changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel showing slight declines. A significant infrastructure project in Tibet is anticipated to boost overall demand and support metal prices [5] - Small metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxides and tungsten concentrate prices are on the rise, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand [5] - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are seeing price increases, with a focus on future demand growth [5] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly precious metals, with specific stock recommendations including Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Zijin Mining [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased by 0.5% and silver by 2.84% in the week of July 14-18, 2025. The year-to-date performance shows a consistent rise in gold prices, positively impacting the gold-silver ratio [5][6] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Recent price changes for industrial metals include copper at 78,410 CNY/ton (-0.2%), aluminum at 20,510 CNY/ton (-0.9%), and lead at 16,820 CNY/ton (-2.4%). The overall market is influenced by a major hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion CNY [5][27] 1.3 Small Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides have increased by 5.5% week-on-week, while tungsten concentrate prices have also risen, indicating a recovery in demand for manufacturing tools [5][29] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen, with lithium hydroxide (industrial grade) priced at 52,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.1% increase. Cobalt products are also seeing price increases, indicating a growing demand in the energy sector [5][35] 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, while the non-ferrous metal sector increased by 1.82%. Specific segments such as precious metals and small metals saw gains of 1.61% and 4.45%, respectively [36] 3. Important Events Review - The opening ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project took place on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion CNY, expected to stimulate demand for metals [43]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in rare earth stocks, with Northern Rare Earth rising over 8% and Shenghe Resources over 6%, indicating strong market performance in the sector [1][3] - The rare earth industry is experiencing a price adjustment, with Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announcing a 1.5% increase in the price of rare earth concentrate for Q3, raising it to 19,109 yuan per ton [3] - Northern Rare Earth has projected a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, estimating a rise of 1,882.54% to 2,014.71%, with a non-recurring net profit increase of 5,538.33% to 5,922.76% [3] Group 2 - The rare earth sector is characterized by a supply-demand shift, with increasing demand from industries such as electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and renewable energy, suggesting a potential turning point for the industry [4] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in gold, copper, and rare earths, with expectations of rising prices due to limited supply and growing demand [4] - As of June 30, the market valuation of the China Nonferrous Metals Index is at a historically low level, indicating a favorable investment environment [4] Group 3 - The composition of the nonferrous metals index includes significant weights for copper (26.1%), gold (16.3%), aluminum (15.8%), rare earths (8.5%), and lithium (7.7%), providing a diversified investment option [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 6.19% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 7th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - Energy metals and industrial metals led the gains with increases of 8.28% and 8.09% respectively, while precious metals saw a slight decline of -0.53% [2][14] - The price of cobalt has been on the rise due to supply constraints, particularly following the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index rose 6.19% from June 20 to July 4, 2025, with energy metals and industrial metals showing the highest gains [2][14] - Precious metals experienced a slight decline, while small metals and new metal materials saw positive growth [2][14] Precious Metals - As of July 4, COMEX gold closed at $3,336 per ounce, down 1.43% over the past two weeks, but up 24.89% year-to-date [21][22] - COMEX silver closed at $37.04 per ounce, up 3.03% over the past two weeks and 23.53% year-to-date [22][26] Industrial Metals - LME copper closed at $9,970.50 per ton, with a slight increase of 0.26% over the past two weeks and a year-to-date increase of 14.79% [30] - LME aluminum closed at $2,587 per ton, up 2.29% over the past two weeks [30][33] Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price was 173,000 CNY per ton, up 0.58% over the past two weeks [36] - LME tin price was $33,585 per ton, up 3.95% over the past two weeks [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 182.25 as of July 4, showing a slight increase of 0.04% over the past two weeks [45] - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and lanthanum oxide remained stable, while cerium oxide saw a significant year-to-date increase of 36.25% [45][46] Energy Metals - Electrolytic cobalt averaged 251,750 CNY per ton, up 7.36% over the past two weeks and 46.79% year-to-date [51] - Sulfuric cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 48,850 CNY per ton, up 2.41% over the past two weeks and 78.94% year-to-date [51][54]

Group 1 - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has shown a bullish signal after three months, entering a relatively certain bullish cycle, with continuous fund inflows [1] - The ETF's underlying index includes six components: copper (approximately 50%), aluminum (approximately 16%), nickel (approximately 11%), tin (approximately 8%), lead (approximately 8%), and zinc (approximately 8%), all maintaining bullish signals at the daily level [1] - As of July 1, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF has seen a net inflow of 81.7191 million yuan over the past five days, reaching a new high in scale at 966 million yuan and a new high in shares at 565 million [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities analysis indicates that the refined copper market remains in a tight balance due to limited production guidance and declining TC/RC fees, with support for copper prices from China's economic stability and a soft landing in the U.S. economy [2] - Current market prices for copper are considered reasonable, with potential for further upward movement contingent on domestic macro policies and overseas economic recovery [2] - Expectations of rising inflation, interest rate cuts, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may support copper prices in maintaining a strong oscillating trend [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant rise in copper and aluminum stocks, with companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Northern Copper reaching their daily limit, and Zijin Mining increasing by over 3% [1][3] - The Copper sector is expected to see prices peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025, driven by tightening supply outside the U.S. and a significant drop in available inventory at the London Metal Exchange, which has decreased by about 80% this year [3] - The Aluminum sector is crucial for manufacturing and high-tech development, with China's aluminum production projected to reach 67.83 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.61% [3] - The Rare Earth sector is viewed positively due to export controls and supply chain adjustments, with increasing demand anticipated from downstream applications like humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [3] Group 2 - The "Metal Heart" of modern industry is represented by the diversified exposure of the leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876), which tracks the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with weights of 25.5% for copper, 17.5% for gold, 16.2% for aluminum, 9.3% for rare earths, and 8.1% for lithium [4] - This diversified approach helps mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [4]