Market Overview - In January 2026, the equity market showed a good profit effect, with major indices rising, while the bond market stabilized after fluctuations[3] - The performance of cyclical and growth sectors remained strong, with non-ferrous metals, media, and oil and petrochemicals leading gains at 23.02%, 18.85%, and 14.95% respectively[3] - Conversely, the banking, comprehensive finance, and transportation sectors experienced declines of -6.18%, -4.46%, and -0.89% respectively[3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market showed resilience after a period of decline, with major bond fund indices recording gains of 0.24%, 0.20%, and 0.16% for long-term, bond index, and short-term pure bond indices respectively[12] - The performance of first-level, second-level, and convertible bond fund indices increased by 0.85%, 1.65%, and 6.90% respectively, following the strength of the equity market[12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy in February, focusing on sectors with strong profit elasticity and clear benefits from technological advancements, particularly in "light, electricity, and storage" segments[4] - Traditional dividend stocks are recommended as stabilizing components in investment portfolios, enhancing risk management[4] Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes the need for caution in the bond market, advising against extending duration too much due to the current narrow credit spreads and potential challenges in capital gains[6] - It highlights the importance of monitoring policy signals and maintaining a diversified allocation to mitigate risks in a complex market environment[6] Performance Metrics - The active equity fund selection index has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.5819 since its inception on May 11, 2023, outperforming the CSI 930950 index by 25.37%[23] - The short-term bond fund selection index has a cumulative net value of 1.0481, with an excess return of 0.5456% relative to its benchmark since December 12, 2023[31]

冠通期货研究报告 --2026年2月宏观经济月度报告 发布日期：2026年2月2日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1月，全球资本市场剧烈波动，地缘局势的恶化，政经秩序的重构，美日汇市的动荡，美联储政策的扰动，牵动着投资者的情绪， 更推波助澜着资产价格的起伏，金银在疯涨后创出史诗级暴跌，比特币更是接连大挫，映射着市场对于金融流动性的高敏感性及对前景 的预期变化。海外，美国四处插手，从委内瑞达到格陵兰岛再到中东伊朗，加剧着地缘局势的紧张；同时，1月美联储FOMC会议如期按 兵不动，暂停了降息的进程，并有意联手日本干预日元汇市，美元暴跌日元快速止跌反弹；月末，特朗普意外提名沃什接任美联储下任 主席，犹如黑天鹅飞出，"沃什交易"主导市场，金银暴跌风险资产多数回落，黑色星期五席卷全球。全月整体来看，波动率指数VIX 剧烈波动后收涨，金银涨幅居前，全球主要股市悉数收涨，BDI上扬，美元先抑后扬震荡收跌，非美货币小幅走升，大宗商品普遍上涨。 国内，强预期弱现实的市场风格依旧明显。12月与 ...