01 土豪家也没有余粮 油价下跌，中东油王的日子不好过了。 近日，沙特阿拉伯被曝正在向华尔街多家大银行寻求约100亿美元巨额贷款，这也是沙特近年来最大一笔公开贷款，向来以"不缺钱"著称的中东土豪，怎 么突然就要靠贷款度日，莫非是油王家里也没有余粮了？ 虽说离贫困线还远着，但沙特近年的财政状况确实出了点问题。今年一季度，沙特录得了超33亿美元的财政赤字，延续了2024年全年约300亿美元赤字的 颓势，官方预测未来数年国家将会继续维持财政赤字状况。 作为一个活在油田上的国家，造成沙特这轮财困的根源显然跟国际油价变动脱不开干系，受到全球经济下行需求减弱和美洲原油增产等冲击，过去一年布 伦特原油价格从超过80美元/桶一路下滑至当前约65美元/桶，远低于沙特维持财政平衡所需的90美元/桶安全线。 为了稳住油价，由沙特领头的石油输出国组织合作联盟OPEC+近年频繁通过减产自救，尝试通过控制原油供给维持价格，然而市场对此似乎并不买账， 据国际能源署此前已经表示，即使OPEC+完全不增产，到2025年全球石油市场也将面临过剩。于是，在长达数年的日均220万桶减产措施不见明显成效 后，各大OPEC+加盟国一致达成共识，与其放着 ...

Group 1 - The Saudi retail real estate sector is experiencing unprecedented growth opportunities due to significant infrastructure investments, ongoing large-scale projects, and the accelerated entry of international companies [1][4] - Urbanization in Saudi Arabia is driving a surge in demand for modern retail formats, with integrated complexes and high-end shopping centers becoming new urban landmarks [4] - The Saudi real estate market is projected to reach $1,016 billion by 2029, with an average annual growth rate of 8% from 2024 to 2029, supported by the Vision 2030 transformation strategy [4] Group 2 - Despite the growth, the Saudi retail real estate market faces severe challenges, including a looming oversupply, with retail space in Riyadh expected to increase by 50% and Jeddah by 75% by 2027 [6] - Changing consumer habits are shifting towards online shopping, diminishing the appeal of traditional department stores and large retailers, which may lead to downward pressure on rents [6] - The long-term potential of Saudi retail real estate remains strong, contingent on precise market positioning and careful planning, with comparisons drawn to the stable retail demand in the UAE [9]