Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Petrochemical has successfully trial-produced three new product grades in full-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene, and polypropylene, showcasing its commitment to developing high-quality products and overcoming technical challenges since its inception nearly three years ago [1] Group 1: Export Market Expansion - Guangdong Petrochemical has exported over 2 million tons of various products to more than 10 countries and regions, including Europe, Australia, and Japan, achieving a product qualification rate of 100% [3] - The company has optimized its refining processes to meet international standards, successfully increasing the smoke point of aviation kerosene from 22 mm to over 26 mm and achieving a corrosion level below 0 [3][4] Group 2: Aromatics Production and Purity - The aromatics unit at Guangdong Petrochemical has maintained a paraxylene purity of over 99.75%, significantly exceeding international standards, and has implemented various optimizations to enhance operational efficiency [4][5] - The company has reduced the circulation of ineffective materials and improved energy efficiency, with comprehensive energy consumption far below industry benchmarks [4] Group 3: New Product Development - Guangdong Petrochemical has completed over 230 production transitions across its four polyethylene units, focusing on new product development [7] - The company successfully trial-produced three new grades in one week, including a high-strength polyethylene suitable for dairy packaging, enhancing product value [7][8] - A total of 20 new high-efficiency materials have been developed, with total new product output exceeding 1.7 million tons, leading the industry in both variety and volume among Chinese petroleum refining enterprises [8]

南华期货原油产业周报 2025年9月29日 ——地缘溢价推升原油 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油核心矛盾是短期地缘（俄乌冲突、也门局势）驱动的多头动能，与中长期基本面（供需无缺口、实 货疲软）支撑不足的错配，地缘为当前重心但基本面制约涨幅。当前，以军袭也门萨那、乌袭俄能源设施推 升风险，俄延长成品油出口禁令，叠加EIA库存低增、资金做空弱，助力布伦特破9月高点；但美汽油需求 降、中东实货贴水收窄显疲软。短期看，矛盾聚焦 "地缘风险能否延续" 与 "资金对超买的消化"。中长期矛盾 脱离短期情绪，回归基本面本质，核心博弈在于 "需求下滑幅度" 与 "供应调整力度"。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原油 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the latest prices of international crude oil futures, analyzes the status of global benchmark crude oil, refined oil, and regional crude oil arbitrage, and reports key market news and trends in the crude oil market [1][2][3][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Benchmark Crude - Arab Extra, Arab Light, Nemba, and Agbami against WTI MEH all had closed arbitrage with negative spreads, indicating poor economic efficiency and competitiveness [2]. Refined Oil Arbitrage - **Gasoline Route**: The European - New York route was open with a profit of $1.06/bbl, while others like Mediterranean - New York and European - Mexico were closed [3]. - **Diesel Route**: Routes from USGC ULSD to NWE and Mediterranean were open, with profits of $1.1/bbl and $0.08/bbl respectively; some routes from the Arab Gulf had negative or narrow - profit situations [5]. - **Aviation Fuel Route**: Routes like Arab Gulf - Mediterranean were open with a profit of $1.05/bbl, while others such as Korea - USWC were closed [5]. US Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Asian gasoline cracking spreads fluctuated, diesel cracking spreads were strong, jet fuel cracking spreads improved, and naphtha cracking spreads were negative but narrowing [6]. Northeast Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Freight rates for various routes such as AG - USGC, WAF - USGC, USGC - NWE, and AG - Singapore increased, reflecting increased demand and active transportation [7]. Key Market News - France's President Macron will meet with Iran's President to discuss restoring UN sanctions; Spain approved a "full - scale arms embargo" on Israel; Iran's Supreme Leader said no intention to produce nuclear weapons; there are concerns about restoring sanctions on Iran; US API crude and Cushing inventories changed; Russia may extend gasoline and discuss diesel export bans [10]. Crude Oil Trend Intensity The crude oil trend intensity was 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view [9].

Group 1: Quality Management Initiatives - The "Quality Month" event emphasizes the theme of "Strengthening Comprehensive Quality Management to Promote Quality Power Construction," leading to a surge in quality improvement across the petroleum and chemical industries [1] - Companies are integrating digital intelligence into production processes, enhancing efficiency and quality management through various technological innovations [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has developed adaptive software for high-precision prediction of logging curves, improving exploration accuracy [1] Group 2: Safety and Standardization - China Chemical Engineering's construction site utilizes high-definition cameras for real-time monitoring, enhancing safety management by automatically identifying risks and notifying management [2] - The company aims for "star-rated construction site" status, focusing on standardization and intelligent management to improve project quality and safety [2] - Quality inspections and the implementation of a "first piece sample" system are being enforced to ensure compliance with quality standards [2] Group 3: Quality Control Measures - Dalian Petrochemical Company is focusing on strict quality control of aviation fuel, enhancing operational oversight and compliance throughout the production process [3] - The company is conducting quality training and management initiatives to ensure a 100% compliance rate for water vapor quality [3] - Henan Oilfield is improving its quality management system by shifting from mere compliance to effective enhancement through various quality-focused activities [3] Group 4: Continuous Improvement and Risk Management - Sinopec Guangdong Petroleum is advancing its quality management and standardization efforts, achieving a "three-zero target" for five consecutive years, indicating no substantial complaints or quality accidents [4] - Tianeng Chemical is leveraging AI and big data for precise detection of safety hazards and quality issues, fostering a culture of quality improvement among employees [4] - The company is actively engaging employees in quality enhancement initiatives, contributing to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Petrochemical has successfully trial-produced three new product grades in a week, showcasing its commitment to developing a high-quality product matrix and overcoming technical challenges since its inception nearly three years ago [1] Group 1: Product Development and Market Expansion - Guangdong Petrochemical has exported over 2 million tons of various products since 2025, reaching international markets in over 10 countries and regions, with a product qualification rate of 100% [3] - The company has optimized its refining processes to meet international standards, achieving significant improvements in key performance indicators such as smoke point and sulfur content in its aviation fuel and ultra-low sulfur diesel [2][3] - The company has developed 20 high-efficiency new material products, with three grades reaching international advanced levels, leading the industry in both variety and production volume [8] Group 2: Technological Innovations and Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented over 230 production transitions across its four polyethylene units, demonstrating its agility in responding to market demands [8] - Through continuous optimization of its processes, Guangdong Petrochemical has maintained a xylene purity of over 99.75% and a yield stability between 96% and 97% [5][6] - The company has significantly reduced energy consumption in its operations, achieving a decrease of 1.4 kg standard oil per ton in August compared to July [5]

Oil Market Overview - Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaged $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel this week, respectively, both up by $0.9 per barrel compared to last week [1] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory stands at 82 million barrels, with commercial inventory at 42 million barrels, strategic inventory at 41 million barrels, and Cushing inventory at 2 million barrels, showing a week-on-week change of -878, -929, +50, and -30 thousand barrels respectively [1] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.48 million barrels per day, down by 10 thousand barrels per day from the previous week [1] - Active U.S. oil rigs increased by 2 to 418, while active fracturing fleets rose by 5 to 169 [1] U.S. Crude Oil Demand and Supply - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 16.42 million barrels per day, down by 390 thousand barrels per day week-on-week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.3%, down by 1.6 percentage points [1] - U.S. crude oil imports, exports, and net imports are 569, 528, and 42 thousand barrels per day, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week change of -58, +253, and -311 thousand barrels per day [2] U.S. Refined Products - Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $85, $98, and $89 per barrel, with week-on-week changes of +$1.5, +$1.1, and -$5.1 per barrel respectively [3] - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are 22 million, 12 million, and 4 million barrels, showing week-on-week changes of -235, +405, and +63 thousand barrels [4] - Production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 941, 496, and 190 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -18, -27, and +1 thousand barrels per day [5] - Consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is 881, 362, and 162 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +30, +24, and -13 thousand barrels per day [5] U.S. Refined Products Trade - U.S. gasoline imports, exports, and net exports are 16, 97, and 81 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of +7, -2, and -9 thousand barrels per day [5] - U.S. diesel imports, exports, and net exports are 10, 85, and 76 thousand barrels per day, reflecting week-on-week changes of -12, -54, and -42 thousand barrels per day [5] - U.S. jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports are 5, 24, and 18 thousand barrels per day, with week-on-week changes of -7, +5, and +12 thousand barrels per day [5] Related Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC Services, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Development [6] - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Services, China Oil Engineering, and Petrochemical Machinery [6]

Core Insights - Guangdong Petrochemical has successfully trial-produced three new product grades in a week, showcasing its commitment to developing a high-quality product matrix [1] - The company has exported over 200 million tons of various products since 2025, achieving a 100% product qualification rate and gaining high recognition from international clients [2] Production and Innovation - The company has optimized its operations by adjusting over 20 parameters and conducting nearly 100 experiments, resulting in significant improvements in product quality, such as increasing aviation fuel smoke point and achieving ultra-low sulfur diesel standards [2] - The aromatics unit has maintained a product purity of over 99.75%, significantly exceeding national standards, and has implemented innovative designs to reduce emissions and enhance energy efficiency [3][4] Product Development - Guangdong Petrochemical has completed over 230 production transitions across its four polyolefin units, emphasizing its focus on new product development [5] - The company successfully developed 20 high-efficiency new material products, with several achieving international advanced levels, positioning it as a leader in the Chinese petroleum refining industry [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests testing support levels for crude oil and holding various long - positions in light positions [1] - Citi analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices will gradually decline to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026 due to OPEC+ phasing out "second - round production cuts" and expected growth in global crude oil inventories. The daily average increase in global crude oil inventories is predicted to be 1.1 million barrels in 2025 and 2.1 million barrels in 2026 [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Benchmark Crude - Brent (Dated): Price data not provided. North Sea supply recovery expectations suppress prices, while geopolitical risks provide bottom - line support [2] - WTI (Cushing): Price is $64.08, with a daily change of $0.3. The end of the US refinery autumn maintenance season and rising demand drive up inland oil prices [2] - Dubai: Price is $81.21, with a daily change of $0.34. Stable Asian refinery procurement demand and lower official Middle - East selling prices stimulate buying interest [2] - Oman: Price is $81.55, with a daily change of $0.45. Driven by the strengthening of the Dubai benchmark, the spot discount of Omani crude oil narrows [2] Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent/WTI (Front): Spread is $4.18, with a daily change of - $0.07. Increased US exports narrow the trans - Atlantic spread and the arbitrage window closes [2] - Brent EFP (Nov): Spread is - $0.01, with a daily change of - $0.05. The deepening contango structure in the futures market reflects the expectation of abundant short - term supply [2] - Dubai/Oman Swap (Oct): Spread is $0.1, with a daily change of $0.03. Tight Omani crude oil supply leads to an expanded premium relative to Dubai [2] Refining Profits - Gasoline裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $8.93. Seasonal decline in Asian gasoline demand puts pressure on refinery profit margins [4] - Diesel裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $18.91. Robust industrial demand and low inventories support strong diesel cracking [4] - Jet fuel裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $17.86. The continuous recovery of the aviation industry, but the commissioning of new refining capacity increases supply pressure [4] Key Middle - East Crude - Umm Lulu: Price is $69.9, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $3.16 to Dubai. Weak demand for heavy crude oil and refineries' preference for light, low - sulfur crude oil lead to an expanded discount [4] - Das Blend: Price is $69.35, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $2.61 to Dubai. Reduced purchases by Asian buyers increase the pressure of oversupply in the spot market [4] - Murban: Price is $69.85, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $3.11 to Dubai. The light - crude characteristics are favored by Asian refineries, but the overall market downturn drags down the price [4] Key Market News - The Premier of the State Council, Li Qiang, met with a delegation of US House of Representatives members [5] - Israeli MPs' visit to Taiwan was strongly condemned by the Chinese embassy [5] - Trump pressured European countries to stop buying Russian oil [5] - Iran will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the actions of the UK, France, and Germany in pushing for the resumption of sanctions against Iran [5] - The EU is considering trade measures against the Russian "Friendship" oil pipeline [6] - Citi analysts predict that Brent crude prices will decline from the end of this year to 2026 due to OPEC+ actions and expected inventory growth [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral trend on a scale from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards single - sided trading; cross - regional spreads may widen [6][8]. - Medium - to long - term: There is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply is complex. OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, with Russia's supply affected by drone attacks, and non - OPEC+ countries showing significant supply growth [6]. - Global crude oil demand shows regional differentiation. Asia has strong demand, Europe faces seasonal decline, and the US has unexpected gasoline demand [7]. 3.2 Macro - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a decline in the gold - oil ratio; overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission; the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and social financing has declined [14][20][25]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ core members' production and export situations vary. Some countries are increasing production, while others are facing supply disruptions. For example, the UAE has increased production capacity, and Russia's exports are restricted by attacks [10][11]. - Non - OPEC+ countries also have different supply situations. The US has reached a record - high production, and Brazil's exports to China are expected to hit a record [6][11]. 3.4 Demand - Global demand shows regional differences. China's demand is supported by the agricultural and construction seasons, and new export quotas may ease domestic oversupply. Europe's demand is affected by refinery maintenance, and the US has strong gasoline demand [7]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial inventories and Cushing region inventories have stabilized; European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased; domestic refined oil profit margins have declined [69][74][76]. 3.6 Price and Spread - North American basis fluctuates; monthly spreads have a slight rebound; SC is stronger than the external market, and monthly spreads have rebounded; net long positions have rebounded [80][81][84].

Global Benchmark Crude Oil Prices - Brent (Dated) price is 84.57, serving as the European benchmark and a major indicator of international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and North Sea supply [2] - WTI (Cushing) price ranges from 64.07 - 64.09 with a mid - price of 64.08, up 0.3, reflecting inland supply - demand in the US, and its spread with Brent is affected by pipeline capacity and export demand [2] - Dubai price is 81.21, up 0.34, being the benchmark for Middle - East high - sulfur crude oil, with some trades potentially replaced by Murban crude oil [2] - Oman price is 81.55, up 0.45, a key Middle - East benchmark traded on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME), reflecting the Middle - East physical crude oil market [2] Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent/WTI (Front) spread is 4.30/4.32, and a wider spread usually means enhanced US crude oil export profitability [2] - Brent EFP (Nov) is 0.01/0.03, an instrument for converting futures positions to physical delivery [2] - WTI EFP (Oct) is 0.01/0.01, a mechanism for converting WTI futures positions to physical delivery in Cushing [2] - Dubai/Oman Swap (Oct) spread change is 0.07, reflecting the relative value between Dubai and Oman crude oil [2] Asian Major Crude Oils - Umm Lulu price is 71.03, up 0.34, an Abu Dhabi medium - grade crude oil [4] - Das Blend price ranges from 70.46 - 70.50 with a mid - price of 70.480, up 0.34, and its pricing usually refers to the Dubai benchmark with a quality premium [4] - Qatar Land price ranges from 70.18 - 70.22 with a mid - price of 70.200, up 0.35, and its quality discount reflects API degree and sulfur content relative to the benchmark [4] - Qatar Marine price ranges from 70.13 - 70.17 with a mid - price of 70.150, up 0.45, an important oil variety exported from the Middle - East to Asia [4] - ESPO (FOB Kozmino) is a key variety in the Far - East market, usually having a premium over Dubai crude oil [4] - Minas (Indonesia) price is 67.72, with an official selling price (OSP) usually referring to Asian naphtha/gasoline cracking margins [4] - Cossack (Australia) price closely tracks Dated Brent, being a light, low - sulfur crude oil favored by Asian refineries [4] Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Singapore gasoline crack (vs Dubai) is 8.93, reflecting the theoretical profit of refining crude oil into gasoline in Asia, driven by seasonal demand [5] - Singapore naphtha crack (vs Dubai) is - 4.28, indicating a loss in naphtha production due to weaker demand as a chemical raw material compared to gasoline and diesel [5] - Singapore diesel crack (vs Dubai) is 18.91, showing strong diesel demand or tight supply in Asia [5] - Singapore jet fuel crack (vs Dubai) is 17.86, highly correlated with the diesel crack spread and affected by the aviation industry recovery and seasonal travel demand [5] Key Market News - The US Fed interest rate decision (upper limit) on September 17, 2025, was announced at 4.25%, lower than the previous value of 4.50% [7] - In the week ending September 12, US crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a 2.19% decline, and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels, a 0.12% increase [7] - In the week ending September 12, US EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing decreased by 296,000 barrels, and overall EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, more than the expected 857,000 - barrel decrease [7] - The US Secretary of State Rubio announced sanctions on four armed groups allied with Iran [7] Market Trends - The report indicates that crude oil may continue to rebound, and the monthly spread will strengthen simultaneously. The trend strength of crude oil is 1, within the range of [-2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1][6] Futures Prices - WTI October crude oil futures closed down $0.47 per barrel, a 0.73% decline, at $64.05 per barrel [1] - Brent November crude oil futures closed down $0.52 per barrel, a 0.76% decline, at $67.95 per barrel [1] - SC2511 crude oil futures closed down 2.60 yuan per barrel, a 0.52% decline, at 497.20 yuan per barrel [1]