【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6789/7100/7986元/吨，环比分别 +61/+57/+57元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为35/-25/-34元/吨，环比分别+18/+16/+16 元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为13.8/22.7/27.8天，环比分别-2.3/-0.6/-0.4天，长丝开工率为 90.7%，环比+0.1pct。下游方面，本周织机开工率为60.1%，环比+2.1pct，织造企业原料库 存为14.2天，环比+1.9天，织造企业成品库存为28.2天，环比-1.8天。 【炼油板块】国内成品油:本周汽油/柴油/航煤价格下跌。美国成品油:本周美国航煤价格 下跌。 东吴证券近日发布大炼化周报：国内成品油:本周汽油/柴油/航煤价格下跌。美国成品油: 本周美国航煤价格下跌。周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6789/7100/7986元/吨，环比分别 +61/+57/+57元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为35/-25/-34元/吨，环比分别+18/+16/+16 元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为13.8/22.7/27.8天，环比分别 ...

证券研究报告 原油周报：美国原油库存下降，对油价有所支撑 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年8月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别66.9/63.1美元/桶，较上周分别+0.7/-0.2美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.2/4.2/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比-579/- 601/+22/+42万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1338万桶/天，环比+6万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周411台，环比-1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周167部，环比-2部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1721万桶/天，环比+3万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为96.6%，环比+0.2pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量为650/437/2 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/21 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/08/14 | 63.96 | 66.84 | 69.08 | 0.65 | 0.68 | -2.88 | 0.38 | 210.92 | 21.75 | 223.45 | 27.01 | | 2025/08/15 | 62.80 | 65.85 | 68.61 | 0.63 | 0.55 | -3.05 | 0.53 | 207.25 | 21.20 | 222.50 | 27.60 | | 2025/08/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged, and the market is focused on the cease - fire negotiations in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US tariff measures on India. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of sanctions policies has decreased. [7] - In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile. The supply of Russian crude oil should be monitored. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under the pattern of supply - demand surplus. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Oil Price Data - From August 11 - 15, 2025, WTI decreased by $1.16, BRENT by $0.99, and DUBAI by $0.47. SC increased by 4.40, and OMAN decreased by $0.83. [3] - The prices of other products such as domestic gasoline, Japanese naphtha, and Singapore fuel oil also had corresponding changes during this period. [3] b. Daily News - Trump said that the US had made significant progress with Russia and would hold a meeting with Zelensky next Monday. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", Trump temporarily did not consider imposing tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil. [6][7] - The Russian side said that the talks between Putin and Trump were very positive. If Putin opposes a cease - fire, the US may impose sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. [6] c. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 25.9 barrels per day to 357.7 barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 4.3 barrels to 1332.7 barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 303.6 barrels to 4.27 billion barrels, an increase of 0.72%. [7] - From August 8 - 14, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries increased, while the inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries increased month - on - month. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The inland maintenance is expected to peak in early August. Currently, the production volume remains at a high level year - on - year. This week, the port has significantly accumulated inventory, the basis is stable, there are many imports in August, downstream demand is weak due to low profits, MTO profits are low, and the situation of low - profit and high - load operation is unsustainable. Pay attention to the subsequent start - up situation. For the 09 contract, there is significant inventory accumulation. The 01 contract has expectations of a seasonal peak season and Iranian plant shutdowns. After the near - end weakens significantly, consider building positions at low prices [1][2]. Polyolefins - On the supply side, PP maintenance is starting to decline, PE maintenance will increase in mid - to - late August, imports remain at a low level, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from August to September. On the demand side, the downstream start - up of PP/PE is at a low level, raw material inventories have decreased to a low level, and there is potential for restocking during the subsequent peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches is being depleted. The fundamental contradictions are not significant. The strategy is to take profit on the previous unilateral short positions at 7200 - 7300 near 7000 and continue to hold the LP01 position [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Some PX maintenance units have restart expectations, and PX supply will increase marginally in August. Although there are new PTA units being put into operation, there are many unplanned PTA unit shutdowns in August due to low processing fees. The PX supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in August, and with weak oil price support, PX will fluctuate weakly. However, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the downward space for PX is limited. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 6500 - 6600 for PX11 and mainly expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [10]. - **PTA**: Due to continuously low processing spreads, the planned shutdowns of PTA units have increased in August, and the PTA supply - demand situation has improved compared to expectations. However, with the commissioning of the new Hailun Petrochemical PTA unit, the medium - term PTA supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, and the PTA basis will operate weakly. Overall, considering the weak supply - demand expectations and the trend of oil prices, PTA will fluctuate weakly. However, due to low PTA processing fees and limited PX supply - demand pressure, and with the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downward space for PTA is limited. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 4600 for TA01, conduct reverse arbitrage for TA1 - 5 at high prices, and mainly expand the PTA surface processing fee at low levels (around 250) [10]. - **MEG**: In terms of domestic supply, multiple coal - to - MEG units are restarting or increasing production in August, but the 1.9 - million - ton - per - year MEG unit of Shenghong Refining & Chemical is currently shut down due to an accident, and the restart time is undetermined, so the domestic supply recovery is postponed. In terms of overseas supply, the Ma Petroleum and Saudi Sharg3 units have shut down temporarily, and the restart time is unclear. The MEG import volume may be revised downwards. On the demand side, terminal orders are weak during the traditional off - season, but as the high - temperature period and the off - season are coming to an end, the polyester load will gradually increase. Overall, the short - term MEG supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The strategy is that EGO9 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4350 - 4500 [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply and demand are both increasing. On the supply side, the previously shut - down short - fiber plants are gradually restarting. In terms of demand, with the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there are improvements in local autumn and winter orders at the terminal, and the downstream yarn - coating demand has increased slightly compared to last year, providing some support for prices. However, the short - term supply - demand driving force is limited, and the weak oil price trend may cause the absolute price of short - fiber to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is the same as that for TA in a single - side trade; the surface processing fee will fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100, and the upward and downward driving forces are both limited [10]. - **Bottle - grade polyester**: August is still the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and large bottle - grade polyester plants such as Sanfangxiang, China Resources, Yisheng, and Wankai are maintaining production cuts. As the production - cut time extends, even though the demand is average, the production - cut effect is gradually emerging, as reflected in the slow depletion of current bottle - grade polyester inventory, which provides support for the processing fee. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The precondition for the processing fee to expand is an increase in demand. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the production cuts of bottle - grade polyester units will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation. The strategy is that the PR single - side trade is the same as that for PTA, the main - contract surface processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton, and consider going long on the processing fee at low prices in the short term [10]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are rebounding. The current main trading logic is the game between geopolitical risk uncertainties and weak demand expectations. Specifically, the meeting between US and Russian leaders may cause oil price fluctuations. If the summit fails, the threat of secondary sanctions from the US on Russian oil buyers such as China and India may lead to supply disruptions in Russia, triggering a short - term bullish risk premium and driving oil prices to rebound slightly. However, the loose supply - demand fundamentals suppress the upward space. The IEA expects the supply surplus pressure to become increasingly prominent from 2025 - 2026, and the production increase of OPEC+ and the growth of non - member supply will further increase the loose pressure. In the short term, the unexpected increase in EIA US crude oil inventories has also strengthened the bearish sentiment. Macroscopically, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September provides some support for demand, but the impact is limited and lagging. Overall, the market remains in a stalemate before the summit results. As the weekend approaches, oil prices face two - way risks and the volatility will intensify. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for single - side trades and consider widening the spreads between October - November/December. The support levels are [60, 61] for WTI, [63, 64] for Brent, and [470, 480] for SC. On the options side, opportunities for volatility contraction can be captured [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic soda**: The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream rigid demand has followed up. The overall demand performance has been good recently. However, some units in East China will resume operation next week. There will be fewer maintenance enterprises in the future than before, and the supply is expected to increase. In South China, it is the off - season for non - aluminum industries, but the supply is increasing. The exports of East China enterprises are mostly previous orders, and the non - aluminum market is also average. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August, which will also have a certain negative impact. It is expected that the rebound height will be limited. In the future, attention can be paid to the purchasing situation of alumina enterprises [76]. - **PVC**: On the supply side, new production capacity is being gradually put into operation, the domestic trade is weak, the spot trading is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market is increasing. The inventory pressure continues to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve. In August, new domestic and foreign production capacity will continue to be released. Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua are expected to release production capacity in August, Gansu Yaowang plans to start production in August, and Qingdao Haiwan plans to start production in September. The release of new production capacity will put new pressure on the PVC supply side. On the downstream side, there is no expectation of improvement, the start - up rate of downstream product enterprises remains low, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The industry is still in the off - season. Overall, the supply - demand pressure remains significant. The movement of coking coal will affect the PVC futures price from the cost side. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for short - term trades [76]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure benzene**: In the third quarter, there are expectations of improvement in the pure benzene supply - demand situation compared to the previous quarter. With fewer port arrivals in August, port inventories are expected to decline, which will provide some short - term support for pure benzene prices. However, the overall supply of goods remains sufficient, and its own driving force is limited. It is expected that the short - term support for pure benzene will be relatively strong. However, with weak oil price support and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations, pure benzene will face some pressure. The strategy is that the BZ2603 single - side trade will follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [79]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, the overall styrene supply remains at a high level. However, as styrene profits are being compressed, some units have maintenance expectations; the overall load of the downstream 3S has increased. The short - term styrene supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the port inventory continues to decline slightly, but the absolute level of port inventory is still high, and the fundamental driving force for styrene is limited. Coupled with the recent weak oil price trend, styrene may be dragged down in the short term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 7200 for EB09 and consider shorting on rebounds [79]. Urea - Recently, the futures market has been fluctuating weakly. The main trading logic is that the loose domestic supply - demand situation has dragged down the center of the futures price. Specifically, on the supply side, the production volume has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has improved. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, the overall supply is sufficient. On the demand side, agricultural demand is weak, industrial demand has limited growth, and in some regions, downstream production is restricted due to the military parade, resulting in temporary pressure on demand. The continuous inventory accumulation has further increased the market pressure. Although there is a certain amount of exports, the increase is limited, and the market's expectation for export fulfillment has cooled down, making it difficult to reverse the loose domestic supply - demand situation, which has led to the downward pressure on the futures price. In the future, pay attention to the resumption progress of maintenance enterprises and new maintenance plans, as well as the progress of the export side, the final confirmed volume of the Indian IPL tender, and China's supply proportion. In the short term, the futures market is likely to continue to operate weakly [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the closing price of MA2601 was 2435, down 1.77% from the previous day; the closing price of MA2509 was 2340, down 1.47%. The MA91 spread was - 8.65%, and the Taicang basis remained stable at 10. The spot prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573 tons, up 0.64% from the previous value; port inventory was 102.2 tons, up 10.41%; social inventory was 131.7 tons, up 8.06% [1]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream start - up rate was 72.63%, down 0.74%; the overseas upstream start - up rate was 69.8%, up 1.96%. The downstream MTO unit start - up rate was 76.92%, up 0.68%; the formaldehyde start - up rate remained unchanged at 30.2%; the water - based paint start - up rate was 90.8%, up 1.09% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined to varying degrees. The spreads between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed. The basis of North China LDPE film and East China PP both increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, PE enterprise inventory was 44.5 tons, down 13.76% from the previous value; PP enterprise inventory was 58.8 tons, up 0.07%. The PP trader inventory was 18.0 tons, down 4.06% [7]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of Thursday, the PE device start - up rate was 77.8%, down 2.10%; the downstream weighted start - up rate was 37.9%, down 0.47%. The PP device start - up rate was 76.6%, down 1.1%; the PP powder start - up rate was 37.5%, up 4.1%; the downstream weighted start - up rate was 48.6%, down 0.3% [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha all changed to varying degrees. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48, FDY150/96, and polyester bottle - grade chips also fluctuated. The PX - related prices and spreads, as well as the PTA - related prices and spreads, also showed different trends [10]. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: As of August 11, the MEG port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 7.2% from August 4. The MEG arrival expectation on August 14 was 14.1 tons, up 2.2% from the previous day [10]. - **Start - up Rates**: The Asian PX start - up rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%; the Chinese PX start - up rate was 82.0%, up 0.9%. The PTA start - up rate was 76.2%, up 0.9%; the MEG comprehensive start - up rate was 68.4%, down 0.6%. The polyester comprehensive start - up rate was 88.8%, up 0.7% [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, Brent crude oil was at $66.84 per barrel, up 1.84% from the previous day; WTI was at $63.90 per barrel, down 0.09%. The spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties also changed significantly [14]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all changed to varying degrees on August 15. The spreads between different refined oil contracts also showed different trends [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%), East China calcium - carbide - based PVC, and other products all declined to varying degrees. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed [76]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 21.9 tons, up 2.0%; the PVC upstream factory inventory was 33.7 tons, down 2.4%; the total PVC social inventory was 48.1 tons, up 7.3% [76]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of August 8, the PVC total start - up rate was 77.8%, up 6.1%. The start - up rates of downstream products such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and PVC pipes all changed to varying degrees [76]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha all changed. The prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also fluctuated. The spreads between different products and contracts also showed different trends [79]. - **Inventory**: As of August 11, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.60 tons, down 10.4%; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.88 tons, down 6.4% [79]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of August 8, the Asian pure benzene start - up rate was 76.096%, down 1.3%; the domestic pure benzene start - up rate was 78.8%, up 0.3%. The start - up rates of downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS also changed to varying degrees [79]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads

Report Summary 1. Core View - In the context of the domestic "anti-involution" theme, the mid - and downstream black and chemical sectors have relative returns, and processing profits still face the need for repair [3] - Refining profits are passively repaired, and the processing demand in the peak season of the fourth quarter recedes [33] 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - related Commodity Prices - The report presents the unit heat - value price performance of energy - related commodities and the cumulative price changes of commodities in the post - energy - crisis era, including TTF natural gas futures, API2 Rotterdam Q6000 coal futures, ICE NEWC futures, and Brent crude oil futures [3][4] Crude Oil Spot and Futures Spreads - It shows the spot - futures spreads of various crude oils such as Forties, IK Fisker crude, CPC Blend CIF, etc., and the spreads between different crude oil futures contracts like Brent C1 - C7, dated BFOE - WTI Cushing, etc [6] OPEC+ Production - Displays OPEC+ production, production quotas, target production, and the production of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also shows the weekly loading volume of crude oil from 9 OPEC countries [8] Crude Oil Exports - Presents the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, including their exports to China [11] Geopolitical Risks - Displays the probability forecasts of geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement in 2025 [12] US Oil Production - Covers the number of non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs in the US, the monthly average price of WTI (with a 4 - month lag), the breakdown of new shale oil production in the US, and the dynamic adjustment of US crude oil production forecasts [15][16][17] Non - OPEC and Other Regions' Oil Supply - Shows the oil supply growth rate of non - OPEC, Russia, and shale oil regions, the crude oil and condensate production of 4 American countries, and the new conventional production capacity in 2025 in countries like Norway, the US, etc [19] Federal Reserve Policy and Global Manufacturing - Displays the pricing of the remaining number of Fed rate hikes in 2025 and the global manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, Japan, China, India, etc [22] Global Oil Demand - Shows the downward adjustment of global oil demand growth rate by institutions in April 2025 and the forecast of global oil demand growth rate by product [24] US and Chinese Oil Product Demand - Presents the year - on - year growth rate of the 4 - week average of US refined oil product demand, the demand for gasoline and diesel in China, and China's refined oil product exports [28][31] Refining Profits and Capacity Utilization - Displays the comprehensive refining profits of refineries in Singapore, Northwest Europe, and the US Gulf, the refining margins of Chinese refineries, and the capacity utilization rates of Chinese and international refineries [34] Crude Oil and Oil Product Inventories - Covers the on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory of crude oil, as well as the global inventory of refined oil products, light distillates, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, etc [36][38] OPEC+ Supply - Demand Balance - Shows the global demand for OPEC+ crude oil supply under the baseline scenario, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory [40] Other Oil - related Data - Displays the monthly asphalt production of domestic refineries, the shipping destination structure of Venezuelan oil, the spot - futures spreads of Singapore fuel oil, the ship - refueling spreads, and the high - low sulfur spreads [43][52][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - The macro - economic data in Europe and the US are positive, and tariff negotiations have made progress, boosting market sentiment. However, high - interest - rate pressure persists, and there are differences in expectations for a September rate cut. Attention should be paid to actions related to tariffs next week [9]. - OPEC supply is generally stable. The EU's sanctions on Russian refined oil will affect India and Turkey's purchase of Russian oil and intensify competition for Middle - Eastern oil. The US may relax sanctions on Venezuela due to heavy - oil shortages [9]. - Global refinery maintenance will decrease by 640,000 barrels per day next week, and the current peak - season demand supports oil prices. But the room for further increase is limited [9]. - US and ARA crude inventories are decreasing, and US refinery operations are at a high level. Gasoline and diesel inventories are at relatively low levels, and the demand for crude oil processing is expected to be strong [9]. - Brent and WTI spreads are falling, and Dubai spreads are slightly rebounding. Overall, the spreads' support for oil prices is weakening [9][16]. - Diesel cracking remains high, but there are signs of weakening in both gasoline and diesel cracking, and the support for oil prices will weaken in the future [9][18]. - In the short term, although macro - sentiment is positive, supply concerns and limited demand growth space put pressure on oil prices. In the long term, OPEC's potential production increase and insufficient demand growth will lead to a downward trend in oil prices [9]. Gasoline and Diesel - Diesel cracking has rebounded, but the upside space is limited in the off - season. The retail price adjustment of gasoline has led to a decrease in the wholesale - retail price difference [140][141]. - The operating rate of major refineries is expected to continue to rise in August, while the operating rate of independent refineries in the East China region has declined, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries has increased [140]. - The export quota of refined oil has increased by 900,000 tons, and the export expectation still has room to rise [140]. - Typhoons have led to a short - term decline in gasoline demand, but the summer season still provides support. Diesel demand in East China has improved [140]. - Gasoline inventories are increasing, and diesel inventories of major refineries are also rising. The supply pressure of diesel will be the main factor affecting future trading [140]. Fuel Oil - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the near - term supply pressure remains, and the spreads continue to decline. Although demand has improved, supply is still abundant. The cracking spreads have rebounded, but the rebound in Singapore is relatively small [201]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the near - term supply is sufficient, and the spreads are also falling. However, the Danagote plant upgrade may lead to a supply shortage in the medium term, and the low - sulfur cracking spreads may rebound [201]. - The demand for marine fuel is expected to continue to improve, and the demand for power generation has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil. The feedstock demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in the US and China has increased [201]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Macro - European and US economic data are good, and tariff negotiations have advanced, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. Market expectations for the Fed to keep rates unchanged next week are high, but there are differences in expectations for a September rate cut [9][10][15]. Supply - OPEC supply is stable, and Russia's production increase may be slow. The US may relax sanctions on Venezuela. Non - OPEC supply shows different trends, with Mexico's exports decreasing and Brazil and Guyana's exports increasing [9][44]. - The EU's sanctions on Russian refined oil will affect the purchase of Russian oil by India and Turkey [50]. Demand - Global refinery maintenance will decrease next week, and the peak - season demand supports oil prices. The demand for light, medium, and heavy crude oil is increasing, and the demand for medium - quality oil has increased significantly [67][70]. - The improvement in international and domestic aviation coal demand is positive for oil demand [79][82]. Inventory - US refinery operations are at a high level, and gasoline and diesel inventories are at relatively low levels. ARA, Middle - East, Singapore, and Japanese inventories show different trends [9][108][114]. Freight - Crude - oil tanker freight rates are generally falling, while refined - oil tanker freight rates are slightly rising [117][120]. Position - The net long positions of Brent and WTI managed funds have significantly decreased, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment [123]. Gasoline and Diesel Price Structure - Diesel cracking has rebounded, but the upside is limited. The wholesale - retail price difference of gasoline and diesel has decreased [140][141]. Supply - The operating rate of major refineries is expected to rise in August, while the operating rate of independent refineries in East China has declined and that in Shandong has increased. The export quota of refined oil has increased [140]. Demand - Typhoons have affected short - term gasoline demand, but the summer season provides support. Diesel demand in East China has improved [140]. Inventory - Gasoline inventories are increasing, and diesel inventories of major refineries are rising [140]. Transaction - The crackdown on illegal diesel sales has improved the production - sales situation of independent refineries' truck - loaded diesel [194]. Fuel Oil Price Structure - High - sulfur spreads are falling, and cracking spreads have rebounded. Low - sulfur spreads are also falling, and there is a potential for a rebound in cracking spreads due to the Danagote plant upgrade [201]. Supply - High - sulfur supply is abundant in the near term, with high Russian and Iranian exports expected. Low - sulfur supply may be tight in the medium term due to the Danagote plant upgrade [201]. Demand - Marine - fuel demand is improving, and the demand for power generation and feedstock shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [201]. Inventory - Inventories in Singapore, Fujeirah, and the US are increasing, while those in ARA and Japan are slightly decreasing [201].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In August, attention should be paid to the trend of diesel cracking. In the case of poor gasoline consumption, diesel cracking has led the refining economy of refineries. If diesel cracking continues to weaken, it will directly damage the refinery operating rate, making it difficult for the crude oil consumption side to resist the increasing supply pressure, thus putting pressure on oil prices in August. However, there are several major disturbing factors in the market in August, such as Russian oil sanctions and trade negotiations that bundle the purchase of Russian oil, which may affect Russian oil supply and reignite diesel cracking. In addition, whether OPEC+ will further withdraw from production cuts in the fourth quarter is also worthy of attention [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly View - **Last month's view**: The northern hemisphere consumption peak season can support the market to some extent, resist the supply increase pressure, and make short - term oil prices fluctuate slightly stronger. But the peak of the consumption season is about to end, and then the supply pressure will gradually increase, with limited upside space. Key events this month, such as the end of the tariff suspension period and the follow - up negotiation of the Iranian nuclear issue, need attention [8] - **This month's trend analysis**: Oil prices fluctuated narrowly in the first half of July. With the completion of tariff negotiations between the US, Japan, and Europe, and Trump's announcement of a 10 - day ultimatum on sanctions against Russia, oil prices showed a stronger trend in the last week of July [8] - **This month's main points**: Crude oil fundamentals show that domestic oil storage makes the eastern market's monthly spread stronger, and there are signs of weakening diesel cracking; US travel consumption shows a shift from gasoline demand to jet fuel demand, indicating US consumption downgrade; Market disturbance factors include Russian oil sanctions, OPEC+ production increases, and tariff negotiations; The labor market is an important reference for the Fed to cut interest rates in the context of persistent inflation [8] 3.2 Monthly Key Points - **East - West market near - month spread differentiation**: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) generally declined this month, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand, but rebounded in the last week. Eastern market spreads are still strong, which is related to China's imports [12] - **China's inventory increase and absorption**: China's cumulative change in implied crude oil inventory from March to June this year (+645) is the highest in recent years. The increase in inventory is due to falling oil prices and intentional storage. New policies to improve energy security have led to additional demand, making the eastern crude oil near - month spread stronger than the western one [15] - **Diesel cracking shows signs of weakening**: Global cracking generally maintained a volatile or strong trend this month, but showed signs of weakening before the end of the month, mainly contributed by diesel. Diesel cracking has been strong and driven the previous cracking increase, but recently it has shown signs of weakening. Gasoline cracking has been mediocre this year [17][19] - **Global diesel inventory is generally low**: Diesel inventories in the US and China, the world's major consumers, are at multi - year lows. Northwest European port diesel inventories are relatively neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventories are at a low level after continuous decline [22] - **Gasoline demand shifts to jet fuel demand, indicating US consumption downgrade**: US gasoline demand during the driving peak season this year was dismal, while jet fuel demand reached a five - year high. This reflects that US residents are turning to more short - distance self - driving travel and reducing travel budgets, especially in low - income groups [25] - **Market disturbance factors - Russian oil sanctions, OPEC+ meetings**: Trump's shortening of the ultimatum on Russia from 50 days to 10 days has made this short - term disturbance factor affect oil prices. The OPEC+ JMMC meeting ended in July without proposing production policy suggestions. The market expects OPEC+ to further increase production in the fourth quarter [26] - **Tariff situation**: The US has reached a new 15% tariff agreement with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and extended the tariff suspension with China and Mexico for 90 days. Trump has signed an executive order to determine the reciprocal tariff rates for multiple countries and regions, which may drag down the global economy [28] - **Inflation and the Fed**: With the end of the downward trend of crude oil prices since April, the downward trend of inflation driven by falling energy prices is expected to slow down. The labor market is the most important consideration for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates once this year [30] - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA's forecast, the hurricane activity this year has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Hurricanes can affect offshore drilling platforms and coastal refineries [32] 3.3 Price, Spread, Cracking - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC basket price, WTI, Brent, etc. [35] - **Brent and WTI crude oil positions**: Charts present the net long positions of Brent and WTI futures and options, as well as the relationship between price and the proportion of net long positions of different types of traders [37][40] - **Crude oil futures structure, monthly spread, cross - market spreads**: Data shows the structure, monthly spreads, and cross - market spreads of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC crude oil futures [43][46][49] - **Spot spreads**: Include cross - market, American, Asian spot spreads, and Saudi OSP. Saudi OSP for different grades of oil to different regions has changed in August compared to July [52][55][58][59] - **Refined product prices and cracking**: Charts show the futures and spot prices and cracking spreads of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions [64][66][69][72] 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global and regional crude oil supply**: Data on global, non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil supply, as well as the supply of major non - OPEC and OPEC countries, are presented. The global rig count and US crude oil rig - related data are also included [85][88][91][94][100] - **Global and regional crude oil demand**: Data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand, as well as the demand of major countries in OECD and non - OECD regions, are provided [109][112][115] - **Crude oil inventory**: Inventory data of the US, OECD, and other regions, including total inventory, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve, are given. The EIA balance sheet shows that the supply - demand balance is positive from 2025Q1 to 2025Q4 [118][139] 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: Include crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [154] - **Supply**: Data on the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane - propylene, and their yields are provided [157][160] - **Refining demand**: Information on refinery crude oil input, operating rate, and refining capacity is presented [163] - **Four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand**: Data on total demand, gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel demand are shown [166]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of filaments and staple fibers weakened in the week. The domestic key large refining project spread increased slightly, while the foreign spread decreased slightly. The profits of the polyester filament industry declined, and the inventory decreased. The prices of domestic and US refined oil products showed a downward trend. The PX price increased, and the spread with crude oil widened, but the PX operating rate decreased [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing 3.1.1 Price and Spread of Key Refining Projects - The spread of domestic key large refining projects this week was 2,526 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton (1.8%). The spread of foreign key large refining projects was 1,098 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton (-1.1%) [2][8]. 3.1.2 Polyester Plate - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of POY/FDY/DTY were 6,579/6,814/7,804 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 25/18/75 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits were - 155/-264/-205 yuan/ton, with week - on - week decreases of 76/71/109 yuan/ton. The price of polyester staple fiber was 6,617.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32.9 yuan/ton, and the profit was 36.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 81.1 yuan/ton [2][9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of POY/FDY/DTY was 15.5/20.3/28.1 days respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 9.9/5.3/2.6 days. The operating rate of filaments was 92.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. The operating rate of downstream looms was 55.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 days, and the finished product inventory was 30.7 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days [2][9]. 3.1.3 Refining Plate - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of diesel and jet fuel decreased this week. - **US Refined Oil**: The US gasoline price decreased this week [2]. 3.1.4 Chemical Plate - The average PX price this week was 849.3 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 US dollars/ton. The spread with crude oil was 346.3 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.1 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2][9]. 3.1.5 Related Listed Companies - Private large refining and polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin Fengming [2]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - The report shows the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and the oil price, as well as the market performance of six private large refining companies and the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large refining projects [13][15][18]. 3.2.2 Polyester Plate - The report presents multiple data related to the polyester industry chain, including the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, the operating rates of related products, inventory days, and sales - to - production ratios [24][37][45]. 3.2.3 Refining Plate - The report analyzes the prices and spreads of refined oil products in different regions (domestic, US, Europe, and Singapore) and their relationships with crude oil prices [79][93][105]. 3.2.4 Chemical Plate - The report shows the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, and styrene and their relationships with crude oil prices [130][135][138].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the petrochemical industry [13]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a historical trend of "anti-involution," which is expected to accelerate under current industry conditions. The focus is on high concentration in midstream sectors like refining and ethylene, with attention on policy developments and execution progress. Downstream chemical products are facing profitability pressures, but certain sub-industries with high concentration may benefit from anti-involution policies [4][10]. Summary by Sections Current Focus on "Anti-Involution" in the Petrochemical Industry - The period from October 2022 to June 2025 has seen China's PPI in negative territory for 33 consecutive months, marking a significant historical record. This indicates the formation of "involution negative feedback." Industrial capacity utilization has declined from 78.4% in Q2 2021 to 74% in Q2 2025, approaching the 2016 low of 73.8%. The profitability of industrial enterprises is also declining, with profit margins dropping to 5.39% in 2024, the lowest since 2003. Administrative intervention is needed to promote rebalancing [7][22][20]. Opportunities and Challenges in the Petrochemical Industry - The concept of "anti-involution" has been present in the petrochemical industry for some time. Initial policies aimed at promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction also contain elements of anti-involution. Policies set a production capacity cap of 1 billion tons for the refining industry and implement capacity reduction and replacement policies. The focus is on optimizing the industry structure and layout through control of total capacity, scale, and efficiency indicators [8][32]. Logic of "Anti-Involution" in the Petrochemical Industry - The midstream sector of the petrochemical industry is highly concentrated, primarily among state-owned and private refining enterprises. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the progress of policy-driven capacity clearance for smaller refineries, which may benefit the main refining enterprises. The overall profitability of downstream chemical products is under pressure, but high-concentration companies have a stronger willingness and ability to reduce production [9][42]. Future Policy Tracking and Potential Benefits for the Refining Industry - If the anti-involution policies can effectively eliminate outdated capacity, the industry may gradually optimize supply-side dynamics. This, combined with a slowdown in overseas petrochemical growth, could lead to a new upward cycle for the industry. Key areas of focus include the elimination of outdated refining and chemical capacities, which may benefit related companies [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the refining sector, highlighting key players such as Sinopec, PetroChina, and Huajin Co., along with private refiners like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical. Additionally, it recommends coal chemical leaders like Baofeng Energy and gasification leaders like Satellite Chemical [11].