Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in trading volume and an increase in spot premium and basis. The supply at the mine end increased, and the TC spot index rebounded significantly. The supply in the domestic market increased due to the rise in copper ore supply and the relatively strong spot market. The impact of the consumption off - season weakened, and the demand improved slightly during the transition from the off - season to the peak season. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand growth, with inventory at a medium - low level and positive industry expectations. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a convergence of the green column below the 0 - axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low levels with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,699.50 dollars/ton, an increase of 7.50 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 135,865 lots, a decrease of 4,502 lots. The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper were 5,193 lots, an increase of 686 lots. The LME copper inventory was 155,150 tons, a decrease of 450 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 11,250 tons, a decrease of 125 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper were 25,223 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper was 79,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper was 79,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 48.50 dollars/ton, an increase of 4 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 96.85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.10 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, an increase of 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 37.68 dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,430 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 70,130 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unforged copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 291.066 billion yuan, an increase of 87.08 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 5,357.977 billion yuan, an increase of 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,689,220,700 pieces, an increase of 1,834,353 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.08%, an increase of 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.52%, an increase of 0.02%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 8.69%, a decrease of 0.0023; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.24, a decrease of 0.0447 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to July, the tax revenue of the equipment manufacturing and modern service industries performed well. The tax revenue of the railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer and communication equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries increased by 33%, 10.1%, and 8% respectively. The tax revenue of the scientific research and technology service industry increased by 12.7%, and that of the culture, sports and entertainment industry increased by 4.1%. A national teleconference on promoting the replacement of consumer goods with new ones was held in Beijing, emphasizing the need to optimize policies and implement consumption - promoting policies to cultivate new growth points in the consumer market. S&P affirmed the "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign rating of the United States with a stable outlook. Heilongjiang adjusted the subsidy policy for the replacement of consumer goods. Starting from August 23, subsidies for automobile replacement are divided into three levels, with an additional 0.2 million yuan for new energy vehicles. In July, the national general public budget revenue was 202.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the highest increase this year. The tax revenue was 180.18 billion yuan, an increase of 5%. In the first seven months of this year, the national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%, with the cumulative increase turning positive for the first time; the expenditure was 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, in the mining end, the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to operate in the negative range, the progress of the mid - year long - term contract negotiation exceeds expectations, the long - term TC has been repaired, and the tight supply situation of copper concentrate has improved. In terms of supply, due to the sufficient port inventory of copper mines and the opening of the copper export window, smelters still have a high production willingness, with stable and slightly increasing output. Although the supply is sufficient, the domestic supply has tightened due to the increasing export intention. In terms of demand, affected by the off - season, the processing and consumption of downstream copper products have weakened. The seasonal weakness of demand has led to low trading activity in the spot market. In terms of inventory, the social inventory remains basically stable and operates at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, and the supply expectation of copper mines has improved. In the options market, the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.6, a decrease of 0.0844 compared with the previous period, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trading on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 80,560 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,995 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 170 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 224,672 lots, up 1,550 lots. The long - short position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai copper is 7,547 lots, up 2,459 lots. The LME copper inventory is 93,250 tons, up 2,000 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,550 tons, down 19,264 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 31,900 tons, down 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 24,103 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 80,980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 80,995 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 49 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 30 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 96.2 dollars/ton, down 20.1 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 44.81 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars/kiloton. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,250 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 71,950 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 56,590 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235 million pieces, up 68 million pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.2%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.42%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 14.71%, down 0.0120; the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.6, down 0.0844. [2] 3.7 Industry News - In June, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The business volume index has been in the expansion range for four consecutive months this year. The ADP employment in the US unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 in June, the first negative growth since March 2023. The market expected an increase of 98,000. After the downward revision of May data, it only increased by 29,000. The service industry lost 66,000 jobs in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers in June is 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June this year, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38%. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025. So far, the 800 billion yuan "two - major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. The Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council, Zhang Guoqing, conducted research in Hubei, emphasizing technological empowerment, accelerating industrial innovation, and continuously promoting high - quality development of the manufacturing industry. Fed Chairman Powell said that it's hard to say whether a rate cut in July is too early, and no meeting is excluded. Richmond Fed President Barkin said there is no urgent need to change policies. [2]