证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 02 月 25 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20260225 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数普遍收涨。截止收盘，沪指上涨 0.72%，收 报 4147.23 点；深证成指涨 1.29%，收报 14475.87 点；创业板指涨 1.41%， 收报 3354.82 点；科创 50 指数涨 0.54%，收报 1473.28 点。总体上，全天个 股涨多跌少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 3742 只个股上涨，仅 1609 只个股下跌， 127 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 24625 亿元，较上个交易日放量 2605 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，钢铁、有色金属、建筑材料、 房地产、基础化工等行业领涨，涨幅分别为 4.69%、3.48%、2.75%、2.53%、 2.16%，仅有传媒、银行领跌，跌幅分别为 1.15%、0.46%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前的概念板块为稀土、稀有金属精选、磷化 工、小金属、稀土永磁、 ...

- Quantitative model and factor construction - Model name: None mentioned - Factor name: None mentioned - Model backtesting results - None mentioned - Factor backtesting results - None mentioned

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.09% closing at 4132.61 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.85% at 14316.64 points, the ChiNext Index down by 0.91% at 3319.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index down by 1.35% at 1532.8 points [1] - Overall, there were 1602 stocks that rose and 3767 stocks that fell, with a total trading volume of 32,482 billion yuan, an increase of 1630 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains with increases of 4.57%, 3.18%, 2.07%, 0.85%, and 0.79% respectively [1] - Conversely, industries such as defense and military, automotive, social services, electronics, and real estate experienced declines, with decreases of 4.47%, 2.31%, 2.30%, 2.24%, and 2.23% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included gold and jewelry, vaccines, selected rare metals, animal health, blood products, industrial metals, nickel ore, rare earths, influenza, cobalt ore, small metals, and biotechnology [2] - Sectors such as satellite internet, commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, and military information technology experienced pullbacks [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index decreased slightly, and the expectation of tight ore supply continued, providing strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to the continuous tight raw material supply and the approaching holiday, copper smelting capacity may gradually shrink, and the growth rate of domestic refined copper supply will gradually slow down. On the demand side, after the copper price rebounded from its high, the repair strength was strong and remained at a high level, which had a certain inhibitory effect on downstream purchases. Downstream buyers mainly replenished their stocks according to demand, and the trading sentiment in the spot market became increasingly cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and cautious demand, and social inventories have accumulated. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.42, a month - on - month increase of 0.0986, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines were above the 0 - axis, and the green bars expanded. The suggestion is to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 101,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,190 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 12,805 dollars/ton, a decrease of 94.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 204,090 lots, a decrease of 11,779 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 60,574 lots, a decrease of 16,936 lots. LME copper inventories were 143,225 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories of cathode copper were 145,342 tons, an increase of 33,639 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 108,685 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 102,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,325 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 102,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 44 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 42.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 865 yuan/ton, an increase of 865 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 14.98 dollars/ton, an increase of 12 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, an increase of 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 44.98 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.08 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 93,890 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 94,590 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 2,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The output of refined copper was 123.60 million tons, an increase of 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Social inventories of copper were 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 70,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 85,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Applications - The output of copper products was 222.60 million tons, an increase of 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 560.39 billion yuan, an increase of 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 7,859.09 billion yuan, an increase of 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392 million pieces, an increase of 215 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 25.96%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 21.40%, an increase of 1.00 percentage point. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 33.04%, a decrease of 0.0060 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.42, an increase of 0.0986 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points, reaching the highest level in 2025, indicating continuous active demand for physical - economy logistics services. In December 2025, the retail sales of China's passenger car market were 2.296 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. Among them, the retail sales of the new energy vehicle market were 1.387 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 5%, with a new energy retail penetration rate of 60.4%. The US "small non - farm" in December last year showed a moderate recovery. ADP data showed that the number of private - sector employees in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. In addition, the number of job openings in the US JOLTS in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, reaching the lowest level since September 2024. The director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, Zhang Yuzhuo, visited Sichuan to conduct research in the R & D and production front - lines of relevant central enterprises, emphasizing the need to plan and implement a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance; coordinate the consolidation and improvement of traditional industries and the cultivation and growth of new kinetic energy, vigorously develop strategic emerging industries and future industries, and open up a "second growth curve". The preliminary value of the euro - zone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service - sector inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. The market expects that unless there is a major change in the economic outlook, the European Central Bank will remain on hold for a long time. According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and it has been running in the range of 49% - 50% for 10 consecutive months [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a general upward trend today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% to close at 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.4% to 13224.51 points, the ChiNext Index up by 3.39% to 3175.91 points, and the STAR 50 Index gaining 2.47% to 1325.33 points [1] - Overall, 3623 stocks rose while 1634 stocks fell, with 198 stocks remaining flat. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 181.11 billion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, electronics, basic chemicals, and power equipment, with respective gains of 5.07%, 3.03%, 2.48%, 2.15%, and 2.09%. The only sectors that experienced declines were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, national defense and military industry, and coal, with losses of 0.54%, 0.20%, and 0.11% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included optical modules (CPO), lithium mining, lithium battery electrolytes, optical communication, liquid cooling servers, optical chips, lithium extraction from salt lakes, selected rare metals, copper-clad laminates, copper industry, high-speed copper connections, selected industrial metals, stock trading software, and circuit boards. In contrast, sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Port, cross-strait integration, satellite internet, commercial aerospace, and satellite navigation experienced pullbacks [2]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis [2][3][6] - The report primarily focuses on market performance, sentiment, fund flows, ETF premiums/discounts, block trading discounts, and index futures basis rates [2][3][6][22][25][28] - Quantitative metrics such as ETF premiums/discounts, block trading average discount rates, and index futures annualized basis rates are calculated and presented [22][25][28] - ETF premiums/discounts are calculated based on the difference between trading prices and NAV, reflecting investor sentiment [22] - Block trading discount rates are calculated using the formula: $ \text{Discount Rate} = \frac{\text{Block Trading Total Transaction Amount}}{\text{Total Market Value of Traded Shares}} - 1 $ [25] - Index futures annualized basis rates are calculated using the formula: $ \text{Annualized Basis Rate} = \frac{\text{Basis}}{\text{Index Price}} \times \left(\frac{250}{\text{Remaining Trading Days of Contract}}\right) $ [28] - Metrics such as ETF premiums/discounts, block trading discount rates, and index futures basis rates are used to gauge market sentiment and expectations [22][25][28]

Domestic Market Overview - The A-share market opened positively in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3933.97 points, up 1.32%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13725.56 points, up 1.47% [1][4][9] - The total trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 26,718 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 sectors, 22 sectors saw an increase, with non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal leading the gains, while consumer services, media, and real estate experienced significant declines [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.52%, the S&P 500 down by 0.28%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.08% [2][4] - Boeing's stock dropped over 4%, leading the decline in the Dow, while the technology sector saw a slight increase, with Facebook rising over 2% and Nvidia up more than 1% [2][4] News Highlights - China has implemented export controls on rare earths, superhard materials, and lithium batteries, marking a significant regulatory move [3][11][14] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are addressing issues of price disorder to maintain a stable market price order [15] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has adjusted the technical requirements for tax exemptions on new energy vehicles for 2026-2027 [16][17] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million person-times, with total spending exceeding 809 billion [18]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3900 points, indicating a recovery in market volume [2][5][13] - Key sectors leading the market include metals and mining (+6.96%), coal (+3.00%), public utilities (+2.65%), and electronics (+2.21%), while sectors such as social services (-1.67%) and media internet (-1.23%) saw declines [2][8][14] - The overall market performance showed the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.32%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.73%, with total market turnover around 2.67 trillion yuan [2][8][14] Market Analysis - The market sentiment is strong as it is the first trading day after the National Day holiday, with upstream cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal leading the gains [8][14] - The technology sector, including solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, and semiconductors, also showed overall growth, driven by breakthroughs in controllable nuclear fusion technology [8][14] - The report highlights that the market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, supported by ample micro liquidity and the influx of long-term capital [13][14] Sector Performance - The report identifies that the AI and robotics sectors are at a critical commercialization window, while traditional sectors face supply surplus issues, necessitating policy support for recovery [14] - The focus on technology growth includes attention to the "Double Innovation" and Hang Seng Technology Index, as well as sectors like lithium batteries, military industry, and chemicals [14] - Value sectors showing improving conditions include metals, gaming, and Hong Kong internet, with a focus on industries with rising revenue growth and gross margins [14]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong opening on October 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% to surpass 3900 points, marking a new high in over 10 years [1] - More than 3100 stocks in the A-share market increased, with nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - The total trading volume exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in market activity [1][2] Index Movements - By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market 50 Index rose by 1.32%, 1.47%, 0.73%, and 2.93% respectively, while the North Stock 50 Index fell by 0.18% [1] - Large-cap indices such as the Shanghai 50 Index and CSI 300 Index increased by 1.06% and 1.48%, respectively, indicating strong performance in large-cap stocks [1] Sector Performance - Strong performances were noted in sectors such as gold, rare earths, nuclear fusion, copper, and storage chips, with technology and cyclical stocks showing significant strength [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal sectors led the gains, rising by 7.60%, 3.38%, and 3.00% respectively [1] - Conversely, sectors such as media, real estate, and social services experienced declines, with drops of 1.43%, 1.39%, and 1.03% respectively [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume for A-shares reached 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 474.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai market was 1.2169 trillion yuan, while the Shenzhen market recorded 1.4363 trillion yuan [2] - Since August 13, the A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan for 36 consecutive trading days [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.01% closing at 3853.30 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67% to 13445.90 points. The Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 1.24% to 1474.49 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.58% to 3235.76 points. Overall, there were 3875 stocks that declined, 1474 that rose, and 80 that remained unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,711 billion yuan, an increase of 443.06 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, sectors such as media, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, computers, and pharmaceuticals showed notable gains. Conversely, textiles and apparel, comprehensive sectors, agriculture, household appliances, transportation, and real estate experienced significant declines [1][2]. Sector Highlights - The leading sectors in terms of growth included servers, semiconductor silicon wafers, copper industry, nuclear fusion, Kimi, internet celebrity economy, optical modules (CPO), optical communication, partnerships with Pinduoduo, superconductors, online games, AIPC, short drama games, rare metals selection, and DeepSeek [2].