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锌产业周报-20260322
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2026-03-22 09:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc futures are weak this week. It is recommended that investors mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to the rhythm of inventory reduction [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Processing and Terminal Demand - Galvanized coil: Market sentiment index (weekly) data is presented [4] - Galvanized coil weekly inventory - seasonal data shows inventory levels from 2022 - 2026 [4] - Steel mill galvanized coil weekly production - seasonal data shows production levels from 2022 - 2026 [4] - Galvanized sheet (strip) net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [6] - Die - cast zinc alloy net import seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [6] - Color - coated sheet (strip) net export seasonal data is presented [8] - Zinc oxide net export seasonal data is presented [8] - Real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data is provided [11] - Sales area cumulative year - on - year and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data is provided [13] - 100 large - and medium - sized cities: Transaction land floor area: Weekly value seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [15] - 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [15] - Infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion data is presented [16] 3.2 Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Zinc concentrate monthly import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [19] - SMM import and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [21] - SMM zinc ingot monthly production seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [22] - Refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fees data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [22] - China zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [23] - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [25] - LME zinc inventory total seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [25] - SHFE zinc this week's inventory futures seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [26] - Exchange zinc ingot inventory data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [26] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market Review - Domestic and foreign zinc price trends are presented from 2024 - 2025 [28] - Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume, holding volume and closing price data from 2024 - 2025 are provided [29] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [30] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread data from 2023 - 2025 is provided [32] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonal data is presented [33] - Zinc ingot three - place basis trends data from 2023 - 2025 is provided [34] - Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonal data is provided [34]
锌产业周报-20260308
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2026-03-08 06:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Tensions in the Middle East have disrupted European natural gas supplies, driving up zinc prices. The domestic smelting profit has recovered, and the spot performance is better than that of copper and aluminum [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and market capital shows low interest. The significant increase in SHFE warehouse receipts and tight liquidity are suppressing prices [3]. - **Trading Consultation Views**: The overall fundamentals are neutral, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Processing and End - User Demand - Multiple charts are presented, including the weekly market sentiment index of galvanized coils, weekly and seasonal data on galvanized coil inventory, steel mill galvanized coil weekly production, net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), net imports of die - cast zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), net exports of zinc oxide, and various real - estate and infrastructure investment data [4][7][10][12][15] 3.2 Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Charts show seasonal data on zinc concentrate monthly imports, weekly processing fees of imported and domestic zinc concentrates, zinc ingot monthly production, refined zinc enterprise production profits and processing fees, zinc ingot monthly production + imports, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, and various inventory data including LME and SHFE zinc inventories [18][20][21] 3.3 Futures Market and Spot Market Review - Charts present the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contracts, the relationship between LME zinc closing prices and the US dollar index, LME zinc's spot/three - month and 3 - 15 - month spreads, and various basis data including LME zinc's spot/three - month spread seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [27][28][29][31]
锌产业周报-20260301
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2026-03-01 06:51
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: February 27, 2026 - Author: Chen Naixuan (Z002313) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints 利多因素 - Global zinc inventories are at a low level overall, with tight supply supporting prices [3] - There is support for the overall consumption intensity, and demand is resilient [3] 利空因素 - Just after the Spring Festival, market trading is light, and downstream demand weakens [3] - There are many production cut plans for zinc smelters, and tight spot supply puts pressure on prices [3] Trading Consultation Viewpoint - It is recommended to pay attention to the change in basis and the support of inventory trends for prices [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Galvanized sheet coil: Market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory - seasonal, steel mill galvanized sheet coil weekly output - seasonal, galvanized sheet (strip) net export - seasonal, die - cast zinc alloy net import - seasonal data are presented [4] - Color - coated sheet (strip) net export - seasonal and zinc oxide net export - seasonal data are provided [7][8][9] - Real estate - related data including real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year, sales area cumulative year - on - year and unsold area cumulative year - on - year, 100 large - city land transaction floor area weekly value - seasonal, 30 large - city commercial housing transaction volume - seasonal are shown [10][12][14] - Infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion data are presented [15][16] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Zinc concentrate monthly import volume - seasonal, SMM import and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, SMM zinc ingot monthly output - seasonal, refined zinc enterprise production profit & processing fees, China zinc ingot monthly output + import volume - seasonal, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, LME zinc inventory total - seasonal, SHFE zinc weekly inventory futures - seasonal, and exchange zinc ingot inventory data are provided [18][20][21] Futures and Spot Market Review - Domestic and foreign zinc price trends, Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume & open interest, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc (spot/three - month): premium and discount, LME zinc (spot/three - month): premium and discount - seasonal, zinc ingot three - base basis trend, Tianjin zinc ingot basis - seasonal data are presented [27][28][29]
锌产业周报-20260202
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 02:53
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: February 2, 2026 [1] - Author: Chen Naixuan (Z002313) [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: LME and SHFE zinc inventories decreased, indicating tightened supply; the net long positions of the main contract increased, suggesting a bullish market sentiment [3] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Entering the seasonal consumption off - season, terminal orders are weak; the arrival of imported ore increased, and the rising raw material inventory suppresses prices [3] - **Trading Advice**: It is recommended to pay attention to supply - demand changes and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: Market sentiment index, weekly inventory, steel mill weekly production, and net export seasonal data are presented, sourced from Wind [4] - **Other Products**: Net export seasonal data of color - coated sheets (strips), zinc oxide, and net import seasonal data of die - cast zinc alloys are provided, sourced from Wind [7][8][9] - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and unsold area cumulative year - on - year, as well as land transaction area and housing transaction volume in large and medium - sized cities are included, sourced from Wind [10][11][12][13][14] - **Infrastructure**: Data on infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion are provided, sourced from Wind [15][16] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume, raw material inventory days, and weekly processing fees (domestic and imported) are presented, sourced from Wind [18][19][20] - **Zinc Ingot**: Monthly production, production + import volume, and refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fees are provided, sourced from Wind [21][22][23] - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory are included, sourced from Wind [24][25] Futures and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trends**: Domestic and foreign zinc price trends, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, and LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread are presented, sourced from Wind [27][29][30][31] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume and open interest are provided, sourced from Wind [28] - **Basis**: Zinc ingot three - place basis trends and Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality are presented, sourced from Wind [33][34][35]
锌产业周报-20260118
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2026-01-18 07:11
Report Core View Bullish Factors - The losses of smelters have widened, and the supply pressure has significantly decreased month-on-month, which is bullish [3]. - Although the import window is closed, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has been repaired, which is bullish [3]. Bearish Factors - The import volume of zinc ore has declined, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, which may lead to production cuts, which is bearish [3]. - The LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, indicating a loose global supply, which is bearish [3]. Trading Advice - It is advisable to wait and see. The ratio of futures to spot has rebounded, and the export window may close again, so caution is needed [3]. Grouped Summaries Processing and End - demand - Included data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, weekly output, net exports of galvanized sheets, net imports of die - cast zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets and zinc oxide, real estate development investment, sales and land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [4][7][10] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Included data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrate, zinc concentrate TC, monthly zinc ingot production, production profit and processing fee of refined zinc enterprises, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventory in exchanges [18][20][21] Futures and Spot Market Review - Included data on the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc price and the US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and the basis of zinc ingots [27][28][29]
华龙证券:政策精准调控防内卷 钢企龙头提质增效赢先机
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-25 07:25
Supply Side - The steel industry is expected to see an increase in valuation driven by supply-side production regulation and more proactive fiscal policies [1] - By 2025, ongoing regulatory policies will focus on innovative capacity governance, emphasizing quality and structure over mere capacity reduction, marking a shift towards more refined and long-term industry governance [1] - As of November 2025, the cumulative crude steel production in China is projected to be 890 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, indicating an increase in industry self-discipline and a tightening supply trend expected to continue into 2026 [1] Demand Side - Steel exports are anticipated to play a crucial role in alleviating domestic supply-demand imbalances, with cumulative steel exports reaching approximately 110 million tons by October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.29 million tons [2] - Although the demand for construction steel is still facing a downward trend, the rate of decline is narrowing, indicating that demand is nearing its bottom [2] - The demand for steel in manufacturing is expected to remain stable, driven by sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and new infrastructure projects like wind power and 5G, which are increasing consumption of various steel products [2] Cost Side - Global iron ore demand is expected to decline overall, with China's structural upgrades and capacity replacements leading to a gradual decrease in steel demand, while growth in other emerging markets is insufficient to offset this reduction [3] - In the first half of 2025, supply easing is expected to suppress coking coal prices, with price drivers primarily influenced by supply adjustments rather than strong demand growth [3] - The price of scrap steel is projected to remain stable with no significant fluctuations, indicating a low probability of drastic price changes in 2026 [3]
锌产业周报-20251207
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-12-07 02:51
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: December 5, 2025 - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views Bullish Factors - Domestic zinc inventory has been continuously declining, with the inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions decreasing by 0.38 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [3]. - Export orders have remained stable, and the improvement in weather has boosted terminal demand, supporting zinc prices [3]. Bearish Factors - The increase in LME zinc inventory indicates supply pressure, and weak consumption has suppressed zinc prices [3]. - Galvanizing enterprises in northern China have reduced their operating rates due to environmental protection restrictions, dragging down downstream demand [3]. Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of inventory changes and export data on short - term prices and operate with caution [3]. Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Multiple data on the zinc processing industry, including the weekly market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly output of galvanized coils, are presented in a seasonal chart format [5]. - Seasonal charts of net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide are provided [6][8]. - Seasonal charts of real - estate - related data such as real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transaction area are shown [11][13][15]. - Seasonal charts of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in different sectors are presented [16]. Supply and Supply - side Profit - Seasonal charts of zinc concentrate monthly import volume, SMM zinc ingot monthly output, China's zinc ingot monthly production plus import volume, and zinc concentrate raw material inventory days are provided [19][22][23][25]. - Charts showing the relationship between SMM import and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, refined zinc enterprise production profit and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, and LME and SHFE zinc inventory are presented [21][22][25][26]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts of domestic and international zinc price trends, Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume and open interest, LME zinc closing price and US dollar index, LME zinc premium and discount, and zinc ingot basis are presented [28][29][30][32][34][37].
锌产业周报-20251123
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-23 01:57
Core View - Bullish factors: Supply shortage due to reduced production in northern mines supports zinc prices, and increased downstream demand is driven by smelters' active procurement of domestic ore and lower processing fees [3] - Bearish factors: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suppress rate - cut expectations, leading to a collective correction in metals, and an increase of about 2000 tons in LME zinc inventory last week restricts the upside potential of prices [3] - Trading advice: Short - term focus on the support of tight mine supply for zinc prices, no future strategy provided [3] Processing and Terminal Demand - Data presented on galvanized coil market sentiment index, inventory, production, net exports, die - cast zinc alloy net imports, color - coated sheet net exports, zinc oxide net exports, real estate development investment and progress, sales and unsold area, land transaction area, and commercial housing transaction volume [4][7][10][12][14] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on zinc concentrate monthly import volume, TC, zinc ingot monthly production, production profit and processing fees, raw material inventory days, and various zinc inventories including LME, SHFE, and exchange inventories are provided [18][20][21][23][24] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and zinc ingot basis in different regions is presented [26][27][28][30][35]
锌产业周报-20251109
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-09 01:22
Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Positive Factors**: Zinc ore visible inventory is continuously decreasing, and the decline in processing fees has led to a narrowing of smelting profits. The temporary tightness of raw material supply restricts refined zinc production. The operating rates of demand - side sectors such as galvanizing and die - casting zinc are stable. The stable rigid demand consumption combined with positive market sentiment provides support [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic zinc ingot inventory is relatively high (social inventory is 163,500 tons), and it increased by 1,400 tons this week, continuously suppressing prices. The weak fundamental pattern dominates pricing, and there is a risk of price decline if demand does not improve substantially [3]. - **Trading Advice**: Consider an interval trading strategy and pay attention to marginal changes in supply and demand [3]. 2. Section Summaries Processing and End - User Demand - Multiple charts are presented, including the weekly market sentiment index of galvanized coils, weekly inventory, weekly production, net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), net imports of die - casting zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), net exports of zinc oxide, real - estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data, sales area and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities, and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, as well as infrastructure fixed - asset investment data [4][7][10][12][14][15]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Charts show the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, monthly production of SMM zinc ingots, production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises, monthly production plus imports of Chinese zinc ingots, raw material inventory days of zinc concentrates, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [18][20][21][22][24][25]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts cover the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. the US dollar index, LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread, LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [27][28][29][31][32][33][36]. 3. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report.
锌产业周报-20251102
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-02 01:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Lido Factors**: Refined zinc supply remains at a low level, supporting the firmness of zinc prices. Demand is in a seasonal peak season, and consumption expectations boost market sentiment [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The trend of accelerated inventory accumulation is emerging, and inventory pressure suppresses price increases. The pattern of oversupply in the domestic market continues, and the widening import losses restrain the market [3]. - **Trading Advisory Viewpoint**: The unilateral strategy is recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a focus on tracking the dynamics of the export window [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing Links and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: The content includes the market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory - seasonality, and steel mill weekly production - seasonality [4]. - **Net Exports and Imports**: There are net export seasonality data for galvanized sheets (strips), color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide, as well as net import seasonality data for die - cast zinc alloys [7][9][10]. - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year, sales area cumulative year - on - year, and unsold area cumulative year - on - year, as well as 100 major cities'成交 land area and 30 major cities' commercial housing transaction volume are presented [12][14][16]. - **Infrastructure**: The cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion amount in transportation, warehousing and postal services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, tertiary industry infrastructure construction, and power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries are shown [17][18]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume - seasonality, TC, and raw material inventory days are provided [20][22][26]. - **Zinc Ingot Production**: Monthly production - seasonality of SMM zinc ingots, China's monthly zinc ingot production + import volume - seasonality are included [23][24]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory data are presented [26][27]. - **Production Profit**: The production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises are shown [23]. Futures Disk and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trend**: The trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index are presented [29][31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contracts are shown [30]. - **Price Spread**: LME zinc (spot/three - month): premium/discount, 100 - basis spread trends of zinc ingots in three places are presented [33][38].