Supply Side - The steel industry is expected to see an increase in valuation driven by supply-side production regulation and more proactive fiscal policies [1] - By 2025, ongoing regulatory policies will focus on innovative capacity governance, emphasizing quality and structure over mere capacity reduction, marking a shift towards more refined and long-term industry governance [1] - As of November 2025, the cumulative crude steel production in China is projected to be 890 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, indicating an increase in industry self-discipline and a tightening supply trend expected to continue into 2026 [1] Demand Side - Steel exports are anticipated to play a crucial role in alleviating domestic supply-demand imbalances, with cumulative steel exports reaching approximately 110 million tons by October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.29 million tons [2] - Although the demand for construction steel is still facing a downward trend, the rate of decline is narrowing, indicating that demand is nearing its bottom [2] - The demand for steel in manufacturing is expected to remain stable, driven by sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and new infrastructure projects like wind power and 5G, which are increasing consumption of various steel products [2] Cost Side - Global iron ore demand is expected to decline overall, with China's structural upgrades and capacity replacements leading to a gradual decrease in steel demand, while growth in other emerging markets is insufficient to offset this reduction [3] - In the first half of 2025, supply easing is expected to suppress coking coal prices, with price drivers primarily influenced by supply adjustments rather than strong demand growth [3] - The price of scrap steel is projected to remain stable with no significant fluctuations, indicating a low probability of drastic price changes in 2026 [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: December 5, 2025 - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views Bullish Factors - Domestic zinc inventory has been continuously declining, with the inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions decreasing by 0.38 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [3]. - Export orders have remained stable, and the improvement in weather has boosted terminal demand, supporting zinc prices [3]. Bearish Factors - The increase in LME zinc inventory indicates supply pressure, and weak consumption has suppressed zinc prices [3]. - Galvanizing enterprises in northern China have reduced their operating rates due to environmental protection restrictions, dragging down downstream demand [3]. Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of inventory changes and export data on short - term prices and operate with caution [3]. Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Multiple data on the zinc processing industry, including the weekly market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly output of galvanized coils, are presented in a seasonal chart format [5]. - Seasonal charts of net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide are provided [6][8]. - Seasonal charts of real - estate - related data such as real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transaction area are shown [11][13][15]. - Seasonal charts of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in different sectors are presented [16]. Supply and Supply - side Profit - Seasonal charts of zinc concentrate monthly import volume, SMM zinc ingot monthly output, China's zinc ingot monthly production plus import volume, and zinc concentrate raw material inventory days are provided [19][22][23][25]. - Charts showing the relationship between SMM import and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, refined zinc enterprise production profit and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, and LME and SHFE zinc inventory are presented [21][22][25][26]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts of domestic and international zinc price trends, Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume and open interest, LME zinc closing price and US dollar index, LME zinc premium and discount, and zinc ingot basis are presented [28][29][30][32][34][37].

Core View - Bullish factors: Supply shortage due to reduced production in northern mines supports zinc prices, and increased downstream demand is driven by smelters' active procurement of domestic ore and lower processing fees [3] - Bearish factors: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suppress rate - cut expectations, leading to a collective correction in metals, and an increase of about 2000 tons in LME zinc inventory last week restricts the upside potential of prices [3] - Trading advice: Short - term focus on the support of tight mine supply for zinc prices, no future strategy provided [3] Processing and Terminal Demand - Data presented on galvanized coil market sentiment index, inventory, production, net exports, die - cast zinc alloy net imports, color - coated sheet net exports, zinc oxide net exports, real estate development investment and progress, sales and unsold area, land transaction area, and commercial housing transaction volume [4][7][10][12][14] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on zinc concentrate monthly import volume, TC, zinc ingot monthly production, production profit and processing fees, raw material inventory days, and various zinc inventories including LME, SHFE, and exchange inventories are provided [18][20][21][23][24] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and zinc ingot basis in different regions is presented [26][27][28][30][35]

Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Positive Factors**: Zinc ore visible inventory is continuously decreasing, and the decline in processing fees has led to a narrowing of smelting profits. The temporary tightness of raw material supply restricts refined zinc production. The operating rates of demand - side sectors such as galvanizing and die - casting zinc are stable. The stable rigid demand consumption combined with positive market sentiment provides support [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic zinc ingot inventory is relatively high (social inventory is 163,500 tons), and it increased by 1,400 tons this week, continuously suppressing prices. The weak fundamental pattern dominates pricing, and there is a risk of price decline if demand does not improve substantially [3]. - **Trading Advice**: Consider an interval trading strategy and pay attention to marginal changes in supply and demand [3]. 2. Section Summaries Processing and End - User Demand - Multiple charts are presented, including the weekly market sentiment index of galvanized coils, weekly inventory, weekly production, net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), net imports of die - casting zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), net exports of zinc oxide, real - estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data, sales area and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities, and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, as well as infrastructure fixed - asset investment data [4][7][10][12][14][15]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Charts show the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, monthly production of SMM zinc ingots, production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises, monthly production plus imports of Chinese zinc ingots, raw material inventory days of zinc concentrates, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [18][20][21][22][24][25]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts cover the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. the US dollar index, LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread, LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [27][28][29][31][32][33][36]. 3. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Lido Factors**: Refined zinc supply remains at a low level, supporting the firmness of zinc prices. Demand is in a seasonal peak season, and consumption expectations boost market sentiment [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The trend of accelerated inventory accumulation is emerging, and inventory pressure suppresses price increases. The pattern of oversupply in the domestic market continues, and the widening import losses restrain the market [3]. - **Trading Advisory Viewpoint**: The unilateral strategy is recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a focus on tracking the dynamics of the export window [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing Links and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: The content includes the market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory - seasonality, and steel mill weekly production - seasonality [4]. - **Net Exports and Imports**: There are net export seasonality data for galvanized sheets (strips), color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide, as well as net import seasonality data for die - cast zinc alloys [7][9][10]. - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year, sales area cumulative year - on - year, and unsold area cumulative year - on - year, as well as 100 major cities'成交 land area and 30 major cities' commercial housing transaction volume are presented [12][14][16]. - **Infrastructure**: The cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion amount in transportation, warehousing and postal services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, tertiary industry infrastructure construction, and power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries are shown [17][18]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume - seasonality, TC, and raw material inventory days are provided [20][22][26]. - **Zinc Ingot Production**: Monthly production - seasonality of SMM zinc ingots, China's monthly zinc ingot production + import volume - seasonality are included [23][24]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory data are presented [26][27]. - **Production Profit**: The production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises are shown [23]. Futures Disk and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trend**: The trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index are presented [29][31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contracts are shown [30]. - **Price Spread**: LME zinc (spot/three - month): premium/discount, 100 - basis spread trends of zinc ingots in three places are presented [33][38].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Bullish Factors - Global zinc supply remains in a continuous shortage, supporting a bullish market sentiment [3] - Social inventories have decreased slightly, spot supplies are tight, and demand is relatively stable [3] Bearish Factors - China's refined zinc production has increased significantly year-on-year, and high mining processing fees have added supply pressure [3] - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China continues, and the fundamentals are relatively weak [3] Trading Advisory View - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in Shanghai zinc dominates the current market. Low inventories provide limited support, but the contradiction is dulled [3] Summary by Directory Processing and End - User Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly production of galvanized sheet coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [4][7][9] - It also includes data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and unsold area, as well as land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - sized cities [12][14][16] - In addition, it shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) [17] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Data on the monthly import volume seasonality of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, monthly production seasonality of SMM zinc ingots, and the combined monthly production and import volume seasonality of Chinese zinc ingots are provided [20][22][23] - Information on zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc weekly inventory futures, and exchange zinc ingot inventory is also included [26][27] Futures and Spot Market Review - The report shows the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, and the premium/discount of LME zinc [29][30][31] - It also presents the seasonality of LME zinc (spot/three - month) premium/discount, the seasonality of Tianjin zinc ingot basis, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [34][35][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 80.5% [7]. - The zinc market is currently flat with small price fluctuations. The Fed's rate cut is in line with market expectations. The decline in the Shanghai - London ratio has widened losses in refined zinc and imported ore imports, partially offset by an increase in imported ore processing fees [7]. - On the supply side, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased due to profit incentives, leading to increased refined zinc output and accelerated inventory accumulation. Overseas high - cost smelters are facing losses and have cut production, causing a continuous decline in LME inventories. The trend of increasing losses in refined zinc imports reflects the different situations of domestic and overseas smelting [7]. - From a global perspective, the supply of zinc ore is gradually becoming more abundant. Although the transmission from increased ore production to increased smelting output is delayed due to overseas smelter production cuts, the sufficient domestic smelting capacity can digest the increased ore output, ultimately leading to an increase in refined zinc production [7]. - On the demand side, it remains relatively stable, mainly maintaining the existing level. With supply increasing and demand stable, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market [7]. - In the short and medium term, the probability of a significant decline in zinc prices is low. In the long term, the expectation of a shift from balance to oversupply in the zinc market remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out long - term short positions on rallies, and enterprises can purchase as needed for now [7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - Summarized above [7] Part 2: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Output**: In June 2025, global zinc concentrate output was 1.0814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The 2025 international long - term zinc ore TC price was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 3.5033 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. As of September 19, the imported ore processing fee was reported at $111.25/ton, and the domestic ore processing fee was reported at 3850 yuan/ton, showing a divergence between the two [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: The profit of domestic ore smelting remains good, while imported ore has turned into a loss due to the internal - external price ratio issue [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In June 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1565 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.22%. In August 2025, domestic refined zinc output was 624,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 222,400 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part 3: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Refined Zinc Initial - stage Consumption**: In July 2025, domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.44%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventory in the industrial chain [25]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has stabilized at a low level, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [27]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: In August 2025, domestic automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. With consumer loan interest subsidies and the release of a new round of national subsidy funds, household appliance consumption is expected to maintain its resilience [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Inventory shows an increase domestically and a decrease overseas. As domestic smelters continue to increase output, the trend of inventory accumulation in social warehouses will continue [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of September 19, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a premium of $50.91/ton. With a significant increase in social inventory, the domestic spot premium is low [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of September 12, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 28,762 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently stabilized [38].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: September 19, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Global zinc supply shortage supports a relatively strong price [3] - Clear fundamental bullish factors, with the supply - demand structure favoring zinc prices, but the market reaction on the trading board is weak [3] Bearish Factors - The spot basis has been continuously negative (Shanghai -70 yuan/ton), indicating a weak spot market [3] - Weak downstream demand and average trading volume suppress the upward momentum of prices [3] Trading Consultation Viewpoint - The fundamentals are bullish, but the market performance on the trading board is contrary to expectations, and the market reaction is weaker than expected. Risks need to be vigilant [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Analyzed the market sentiment index, inventory, production, and net export/import of galvanized steel coils, die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets, and zinc oxide, as well as real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales, and land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [4][6][9] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Studied the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, processing fees, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, raw material inventory days, and exchange inventories [19][21][22] Futures and Spot Market Review - Reviewed the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc futures, trading volume, open interest, the relationship between LME zinc prices and the US dollar index, basis trends, etc [27][28][29]

Group 1: Report Information - Date of the report: September 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Dian, Tao Cunhui, Xue Yuan, Shen Yumeng, Zhong Hong [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core View - No information provided Group 4: Data Summary Production - Actual production of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 34.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.16 tons compared to September 5 [2] - Actual production of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 31.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.8 tons [2] - Actual production of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 16.59 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 tons [2] - Actual production of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 88.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons [2] - The combined actual production of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 170.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22.47 tons [2] Apparent Demand - Apparent demand for Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 30.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.19 tons [2] - Apparent demand for H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 30.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.99 tons [2] - Apparent demand for Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons [2] - Apparent demand for Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 84.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 tons [2] - The combined apparent demand for Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 162.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.8 tons [2] Inventory Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill inventory of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 97.64 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.64 tons [2] - Steel mill inventory of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 19.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons [2] - Steel mill inventory of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 16.04 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons [2] - Steel mill inventory of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 47.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02 tons [2] - The combined steel mill inventory of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 180.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.78 tons [2] Social Inventory - Social inventory of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 58.65 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78 tons [2] - Social inventory of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 64.79 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [2] - Social inventory of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 25.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 tons [2] - Social inventory of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 123.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52 tons [2] - The combined social inventory of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 272.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15 tons [2] Total Inventory - Total inventory of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 156.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.86 tons [2] - Total inventory of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 84.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.96 tons [2] - Total inventory of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 41.65 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 tons [2] - Total inventory of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 170.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.54 tons [2] - The combined total inventory of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 453.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.93 tons [2] Other Inventory - Steel billet inventory in mainstream warehouses on September 12, 2025, was 136.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.75 tons [2] - Steel billet inventory in 61 Tangshan steel - rolling enterprises on September 12, 2025, was 61.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.42 tons [2] - The combined steel billet inventory was 197.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.33 tons [2] - Inventory of Hot - rolled Strip Steel in steel mills on September 12, 2025, was 36.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons [2] - Social inventory of Hot - rolled Strip Steel on September 12, 2025, was 91.6885 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 tons [2] - Inventory of High - quality Special Steel in steel mills on September 12, 2025, was 141.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 tons [2] - Social inventory of High - quality Special Steel on September 12, 2025, was 129.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.76 tons [2] - Social inventory of Welded Pipe on September 12, 2025, was 81.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41 tons [2] - Social inventory of Seamless Pipe on September 12, 2025, was 69.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 tons [2] - The total inventory of sample small - variety steel on September 12, 2025, was 1201.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8582 tons [2]

Report Title - Zinc Industry Weekly Report, dated August 29, 2025 [1] Core Views Bullish Factors - China's zinc consumption is growing, with apparent consumption rising steadily, which supports demand [3]. - Both domestic and overseas inventories have slightly decreased, alleviating supply pressure [3]. Bearish Factors - Global zinc consumption is declining, especially in Western countries or regions, and inventories remain at a high level [3]. - Supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, it's the off - demand season, and inventories are increasing [3]. Trading Advisory View - The fundamental support for zinc is insufficient, but the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may provide macro - level support [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing and End - User Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index of galvanized coils, their weekly inventory, and steel mills' weekly production, all with seasonal trends. It also shows the seasonal data of net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloy, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide, as well as data related to the real estate market such as development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and unsold area, and 100 - large - city land transaction area and 30 - large - city commercial housing transaction volume. Additionally, it includes infrastructure fixed - asset investment data [4][6][8][11][13][16][17][19] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Data on the seasonal monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, SMM zinc ingot monthly production, zinc ingot monthly production plus imports, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, and LME and SHFE zinc inventories are provided, along with the production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises [22][24][25][26][28][29] Futures and Spot Market Review - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, LME zinc's premium and discount, and the basis of zinc ingots in three locations [31][32][33][35][40]