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锌产业周报-20251123
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-23 01:57
Core View - Bullish factors: Supply shortage due to reduced production in northern mines supports zinc prices, and increased downstream demand is driven by smelters' active procurement of domestic ore and lower processing fees [3] - Bearish factors: Hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve suppress rate - cut expectations, leading to a collective correction in metals, and an increase of about 2000 tons in LME zinc inventory last week restricts the upside potential of prices [3] - Trading advice: Short - term focus on the support of tight mine supply for zinc prices, no future strategy provided [3] Processing and Terminal Demand - Data presented on galvanized coil market sentiment index, inventory, production, net exports, die - cast zinc alloy net imports, color - coated sheet net exports, zinc oxide net exports, real estate development investment and progress, sales and unsold area, land transaction area, and commercial housing transaction volume [4][7][10][12][14] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Data on zinc concentrate monthly import volume, TC, zinc ingot monthly production, production profit and processing fees, raw material inventory days, and various zinc inventories including LME, SHFE, and exchange inventories are provided [18][20][21][23][24] Futures and Spot Market Review - Information on the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and zinc ingot basis in different regions is presented [26][27][28][30][35]
锌产业周报-20251109
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-09 01:22
Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Positive Factors**: Zinc ore visible inventory is continuously decreasing, and the decline in processing fees has led to a narrowing of smelting profits. The temporary tightness of raw material supply restricts refined zinc production. The operating rates of demand - side sectors such as galvanizing and die - casting zinc are stable. The stable rigid demand consumption combined with positive market sentiment provides support [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic zinc ingot inventory is relatively high (social inventory is 163,500 tons), and it increased by 1,400 tons this week, continuously suppressing prices. The weak fundamental pattern dominates pricing, and there is a risk of price decline if demand does not improve substantially [3]. - **Trading Advice**: Consider an interval trading strategy and pay attention to marginal changes in supply and demand [3]. 2. Section Summaries Processing and End - User Demand - Multiple charts are presented, including the weekly market sentiment index of galvanized coils, weekly inventory, weekly production, net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), net imports of die - casting zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), net exports of zinc oxide, real - estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data, sales area and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities, and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, as well as infrastructure fixed - asset investment data [4][7][10][12][14][15]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Charts show the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, monthly production of SMM zinc ingots, production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises, monthly production plus imports of Chinese zinc ingots, raw material inventory days of zinc concentrates, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [18][20][21][22][24][25]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts cover the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. the US dollar index, LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread, LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [27][28][29][31][32][33][36]. 3. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report.
锌产业周报-20251102
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-02 01:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Lido Factors**: Refined zinc supply remains at a low level, supporting the firmness of zinc prices. Demand is in a seasonal peak season, and consumption expectations boost market sentiment [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The trend of accelerated inventory accumulation is emerging, and inventory pressure suppresses price increases. The pattern of oversupply in the domestic market continues, and the widening import losses restrain the market [3]. - **Trading Advisory Viewpoint**: The unilateral strategy is recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a focus on tracking the dynamics of the export window [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing Links and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: The content includes the market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory - seasonality, and steel mill weekly production - seasonality [4]. - **Net Exports and Imports**: There are net export seasonality data for galvanized sheets (strips), color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide, as well as net import seasonality data for die - cast zinc alloys [7][9][10]. - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year, sales area cumulative year - on - year, and unsold area cumulative year - on - year, as well as 100 major cities'成交 land area and 30 major cities' commercial housing transaction volume are presented [12][14][16]. - **Infrastructure**: The cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion amount in transportation, warehousing and postal services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, tertiary industry infrastructure construction, and power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries are shown [17][18]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume - seasonality, TC, and raw material inventory days are provided [20][22][26]. - **Zinc Ingot Production**: Monthly production - seasonality of SMM zinc ingots, China's monthly zinc ingot production + import volume - seasonality are included [23][24]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory data are presented [26][27]. - **Production Profit**: The production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises are shown [23]. Futures Disk and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trend**: The trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index are presented [29][31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contracts are shown [30]. - **Price Spread**: LME zinc (spot/three - month): premium/discount, 100 - basis spread trends of zinc ingots in three places are presented [33][38].
锌产业周报-20251024
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 10:43
【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可,任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标、服务标记及标记。 核心观点 利多因素: 全球锌供应持续短缺,支持市场情绪偏多。 ...
沪锌:沪伦比走低,进口矿加工费上调
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 08:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 80.5% [7]. - The zinc market is currently flat with small price fluctuations. The Fed's rate cut is in line with market expectations. The decline in the Shanghai - London ratio has widened losses in refined zinc and imported ore imports, partially offset by an increase in imported ore processing fees [7]. - On the supply side, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased due to profit incentives, leading to increased refined zinc output and accelerated inventory accumulation. Overseas high - cost smelters are facing losses and have cut production, causing a continuous decline in LME inventories. The trend of increasing losses in refined zinc imports reflects the different situations of domestic and overseas smelting [7]. - From a global perspective, the supply of zinc ore is gradually becoming more abundant. Although the transmission from increased ore production to increased smelting output is delayed due to overseas smelter production cuts, the sufficient domestic smelting capacity can digest the increased ore output, ultimately leading to an increase in refined zinc production [7]. - On the demand side, it remains relatively stable, mainly maintaining the existing level. With supply increasing and demand stable, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market [7]. - In the short and medium term, the probability of a significant decline in zinc prices is low. In the long term, the expectation of a shift from balance to oversupply in the zinc market remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out long - term short positions on rallies, and enterprises can purchase as needed for now [7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - Summarized above [7] Part 2: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Output**: In June 2025, global zinc concentrate output was 1.0814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The 2025 international long - term zinc ore TC price was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 3.5033 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. As of September 19, the imported ore processing fee was reported at $111.25/ton, and the domestic ore processing fee was reported at 3850 yuan/ton, showing a divergence between the two [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: The profit of domestic ore smelting remains good, while imported ore has turned into a loss due to the internal - external price ratio issue [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In June 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1565 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.22%. In August 2025, domestic refined zinc output was 624,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 222,400 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part 3: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Refined Zinc Initial - stage Consumption**: In July 2025, domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.44%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventory in the industrial chain [25]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has stabilized at a low level, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [27]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: In August 2025, domestic automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. With consumer loan interest subsidies and the release of a new round of national subsidy funds, household appliance consumption is expected to maintain its resilience [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Inventory shows an increase domestically and a decrease overseas. As domestic smelters continue to increase output, the trend of inventory accumulation in social warehouses will continue [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of September 19, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a premium of $50.91/ton. With a significant increase in social inventory, the domestic spot premium is low [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of September 12, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 28,762 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently stabilized [38].
锌产业周报-20250919
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 10:34
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: September 19, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Global zinc supply shortage supports a relatively strong price [3] - Clear fundamental bullish factors, with the supply - demand structure favoring zinc prices, but the market reaction on the trading board is weak [3] Bearish Factors - The spot basis has been continuously negative (Shanghai -70 yuan/ton), indicating a weak spot market [3] - Weak downstream demand and average trading volume suppress the upward momentum of prices [3] Trading Consultation Viewpoint - The fundamentals are bullish, but the market performance on the trading board is contrary to expectations, and the market reaction is weaker than expected. Risks need to be vigilant [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Analyzed the market sentiment index, inventory, production, and net export/import of galvanized steel coils, die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets, and zinc oxide, as well as real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales, and land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [4][6][9] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Studied the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, processing fees, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, raw material inventory days, and exchange inventories [19][21][22] Futures and Spot Market Review - Reviewed the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc futures, trading volume, open interest, the relationship between LME zinc prices and the US dollar index, basis trends, etc [27][28][29]
小品种钢材周度数据-20250915
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:26
Group 1: Report Information - Date of the report: September 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Dian, Tao Cunhui, Xue Yuan, Shen Yumeng, Zhong Hong [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core View - No information provided Group 4: Data Summary Production - Actual production of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 34.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.16 tons compared to September 5 [2] - Actual production of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 31.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.8 tons [2] - Actual production of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 16.59 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 tons [2] - Actual production of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 88.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons [2] - The combined actual production of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 170.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22.47 tons [2] Apparent Demand - Apparent demand for Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 30.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.19 tons [2] - Apparent demand for H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 30.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.99 tons [2] - Apparent demand for Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons [2] - Apparent demand for Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 84.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 tons [2] - The combined apparent demand for Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 162.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.8 tons [2] Inventory Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill inventory of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 97.64 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.64 tons [2] - Steel mill inventory of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 19.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons [2] - Steel mill inventory of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 16.04 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons [2] - Steel mill inventory of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 47.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02 tons [2] - The combined steel mill inventory of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 180.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.78 tons [2] Social Inventory - Social inventory of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 58.65 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78 tons [2] - Social inventory of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 64.79 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [2] - Social inventory of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 25.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 tons [2] - Social inventory of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 123.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.52 tons [2] - The combined social inventory of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 272.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15 tons [2] Total Inventory - Total inventory of Angle and Channel Steel on September 12, 2025, was 156.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.86 tons [2] - Total inventory of H - shaped Steel on September 12, 2025, was 84.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.96 tons [2] - Total inventory of Color - coated Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 41.65 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 tons [2] - Total inventory of Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 170.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.54 tons [2] - The combined total inventory of Angle and Channel Steel, H - shaped Steel, Color - coated Steel Coils, and Galvanized Steel Coils on September 12, 2025, was 453.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.93 tons [2] Other Inventory - Steel billet inventory in mainstream warehouses on September 12, 2025, was 136.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.75 tons [2] - Steel billet inventory in 61 Tangshan steel - rolling enterprises on September 12, 2025, was 61.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.42 tons [2] - The combined steel billet inventory was 197.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.33 tons [2] - Inventory of Hot - rolled Strip Steel in steel mills on September 12, 2025, was 36.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons [2] - Social inventory of Hot - rolled Strip Steel on September 12, 2025, was 91.6885 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 tons [2] - Inventory of High - quality Special Steel in steel mills on September 12, 2025, was 141.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 tons [2] - Social inventory of High - quality Special Steel on September 12, 2025, was 129.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.76 tons [2] - Social inventory of Welded Pipe on September 12, 2025, was 81.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41 tons [2] - Social inventory of Seamless Pipe on September 12, 2025, was 69.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 tons [2] - The total inventory of sample small - variety steel on September 12, 2025, was 1201.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8582 tons [2]
锌产业周报-20250829
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 10:44
Report Title - Zinc Industry Weekly Report, dated August 29, 2025 [1] Core Views Bullish Factors - China's zinc consumption is growing, with apparent consumption rising steadily, which supports demand [3]. - Both domestic and overseas inventories have slightly decreased, alleviating supply pressure [3]. Bearish Factors - Global zinc consumption is declining, especially in Western countries or regions, and inventories remain at a high level [3]. - Supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, it's the off - demand season, and inventories are increasing [3]. Trading Advisory View - The fundamental support for zinc is insufficient, but the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may provide macro - level support [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing and End - User Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index of galvanized coils, their weekly inventory, and steel mills' weekly production, all with seasonal trends. It also shows the seasonal data of net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloy, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide, as well as data related to the real estate market such as development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and unsold area, and 100 - large - city land transaction area and 30 - large - city commercial housing transaction volume. Additionally, it includes infrastructure fixed - asset investment data [4][6][8][11][13][16][17][19] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Data on the seasonal monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, SMM zinc ingot monthly production, zinc ingot monthly production plus imports, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, and LME and SHFE zinc inventories are provided, along with the production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises [22][24][25][26][28][29] Futures and Spot Market Review - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, LME zinc's premium and discount, and the basis of zinc ingots in three locations [31][32][33][35][40]
小品种钢材周度数据-20250806
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 06:01
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Small Variety Steel Weekly Data [2] - Report Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Dian, Tao Cunhui, Xue Yuan, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - The report presents the weekly data of small variety steels in 2025, including actual production, apparent demand, steel enterprise inventory, social inventory, and total inventory for different types of steel products such as I-beams, H-beams, color-coated coils, galvanized coils, etc. It also shows the steel billet inventory and sample small variety steel inventory, along with their week-on-week changes [2]. Group 4: Summary by Steel Product Type I-beams (I-beams, Channels, Angles) - Actual Production: 36.76 tons on August 1, 2025, up 2.71 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 33.4 tons on August 1, 2025, down 6.59 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 86.65 tons on August 1, 2025, up 4 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 58.1 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.59 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 144.8 tons on August 1, 2025, up 3.41 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] H-beams - Actual Production: 22.97 tons on August 1, 2025, down 1.96 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 26 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.17 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 17.4 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.8 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 65.53 tons on August 1, 2025, down 2.25 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 82.9 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.05 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Color-coated Coils - Actual Production: 15.94 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.7 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 16.4 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.53 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 15.43 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.14 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 25.75 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.27 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 41.18 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.41 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Galvanized Coils - Actual Production: 90.55 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.49 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Apparent Demand: 91.4 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.92 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Steel Enterprise Inventory: 44.71 tons on August 1, 2025, down 1.05 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Social Inventory: 108.04 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.16 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total Inventory: 152.75 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.89 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Steel Billet Inventory - Mainstream Warehouse: 122.3 tons on August 1, 2025, up 5.52 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Rolling Steel Enterprises Adjusting Billet: 73.6 tons on August 1, 2025, down 3.1 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Total: 195.9 tons on August 1, 2025, up 2.42 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Other Steel Products - Hot-rolled Strip Steel (Steel Enterprise Inventory): 31.65 tons on August 1, 2025, down 0.37 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Hot-rolled Strip Steel (Social Inventory): 68.2241 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.85 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Welded Pipe (Social Inventory): 82.51 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.06 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Seamless Pipe (Social Inventory): 70.09 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.55 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Special Steel (Steel Enterprise Inventory): 135.25 tons on August 1, 2025, down 2.53 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] - Special Steel (Social Inventory): 127.93 tons on August 1, 2025, up 0.03 tons from July 25, 2025 [2] Sample Small Variety Steel Inventory - Total Inventory on August 1, 2025: 1133.2 tons, up 0.07 tons from July 25, 2025 [2]
锌产业周报-20250707
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 03:09
Core View - China's zinc consumption is growing steadily, supporting the demand fundamentals [3] - Low prices are forcing some zinc enterprises to cut production, alleviating supply pressure [3] - Negative factors: Social inventories are continuously accumulating slightly, indicating oversupply; zinc consumption in Western developed countries has dropped significantly, dragging down global demand [3] - Trading consultation view: It is recommended to monitor changes in social inventories to judge market trends [3] Processing and End - User Demand Galvanized Sheet and Coil - Galvanized sheet and coil market sentiment index (weekly) is presented with data from 2023 - 2025 [5] - Galvanized sheet and coil weekly inventory - seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [5] - Steel mill galvanized sheet and coil weekly production - seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [5] Net Exports and Imports - Net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide are presented with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][9] Real Estate - Cumulative year - on - year data of real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area from 2015 - 2024 are provided [12][14] - Seasonal data of 100 large - and medium - sized cities' land transaction area and 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume from 2021 - 2025 are shown [16][17] Infrastructure - Cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in transportation, warehousing, postal services, water conservancy, environment, public facilities management, and tertiary industry infrastructure construction from 2020 - 2024 are presented [20] Supply and Supply - Side Profits Zinc Concentrate - Monthly import volume seasonality of zinc concentrate from 2021 - 2025 is provided [22] - Zinc concentrate TC (treatment charge) data from 2022 - 2025 are presented [24] Zinc Production - Monthly production seasonality of SMM zinc ingots from 2021 - 2025 is shown [25] - China's zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonality from 2021 - 2025 is provided [26] Inventory - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days from 2021 - 2025 are presented [28] - LME and SHFE zinc inventory data from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including total inventory and futures inventory [28][29] Futures and Spot Market Review Zinc Prices - Domestic and international zinc price trends from 2023 - 2025 are presented [31] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index from 2022 - 2025 are shown [34] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures' main contract from 2023 - 2025 are presented [32] Premiums and Discounts - LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 premiums and discounts from 2023 - 2025 are presented [35] - Seasonal data of LME zinc (spot/three - month) premiums and discounts from 2021 - 2025 are provided [36] - Seasonal data of Tianjin zinc ingot basis from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38] - Three - location zinc ingot basis trends from 2023 - 2025 are shown [40]