库延续累增，现货升水下跌；海外LME库存下降明显，LME现货升水下调，对国内锌价支撑或减弱。技术面 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 ，持仓低位价格调整，跌破MA60，关注22000支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间操作。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪锌产业日报 2025-08-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22240 | -25 09-10月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 20 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025-08-07 [2] - Analyst: Wang Fuhui [3] - Qualification Number: Futures practice qualification number F03123381, Futures investment consulting practice certificate number Z0019878 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Fundamentally, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are increasing, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on - demand at low prices, but overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increased positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now or take short - term, light - position long positions. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,580 yuan/ton, a rise of 200 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai zinc was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,795 US dollars/ton, a rise of 45 US dollars/ton. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 209,722 lots, an increase of 7,676 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 7,961 lots, an increase of 4,545 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 13,822 tons, unchanged. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 61,724 tons (weekly), an increase of 2,305 tons. The LME inventory was 89,225 tons (daily), a decrease of 3,050 tons. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,510 yuan/ton, a rise of 180 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,660 yuan/ton, a rise of 240 yuan/ton. - The basis of the ZN main contract was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 9.79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.37 US dollars/ton. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,030 yuan/ton, a rise of 30 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG was 1,007,500 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 628,000 tons (monthly), an increase of 45,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), an increase of 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. The refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), an increase of 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory was 87,300 tons (weekly), an increase of 3,000 tons. [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 130,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters (monthly), an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters (monthly), an increase of 41.8147 million square meters. - The automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles (monthly), an increase of 166,600 vehicles. The air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units (monthly), an increase of 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option on zinc was 13.27% (daily), a decrease of 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option on zinc was 13.27% (daily), a decrease of 0.29%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 8.93% (daily), a decrease of 0.4%. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 13.33% (daily), a decrease of 0.24%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Modi is expected to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, but companies building or promising to build factories in the US, such as Apple and TSMC, are exempted. - The differences in the US - Japan trade agreement continue, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis. - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might indicate a turning point in the US economy. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the zinc market is currently in a complex situation. On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. Zinc prices are in a wide - range adjustment, and both domestic and overseas inventories are rising, putting pressure on zinc prices. Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,130 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 15 yuan, unchanged. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,701.5 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 231,620 lots, down 4,884 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 8,851 lots, down 3,193 lots. - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 12,161 tons, up 977 tons; the SHFE inventory is 49,981 tons, up 4,617 tons; the LME inventory is 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 20 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.95 dollars/ton, down 4.34 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 74,400 tons, up 1,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. - Automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 8.44%, down 0.78%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 12.74%, down 0.01% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year increase was 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. - Trump said he plans to impose "slightly over 10%" tariffs on at least 100 countries and mentioned possible trade agreements [3]. 3.8观点总结 - On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. - Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. - Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22045 | -40 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 15 | 0 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2701.5 | -31 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 231620 | -4884 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 8851 | -3193 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 12161 | 977 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 49981 | 4617 LME库存(日,吨) | 118600 | 5200 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22050 | -100 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 21710 | -100 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 5 | -60 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -9.95 | -4.34 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22120 | 70 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 75 | -15 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2719 | 36 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 250347 | -3271 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 18212 | 8912 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 8950 | 1001 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 45364 | 1731 LME库存(日,吨) | 108500 | -2100 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22400 | 240 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22250 | 520 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 40 | 50 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -9.88 | 12.17 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | 168 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，下游消费逐渐转淡，库存出货速度减慢，现货升水明显下调，国内社库持稳运行；不过海外LME锌升水 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 上涨，库存延续下降，带动国内价格走强。技术面，持仓下降多空谨慎，跌破MA10支撑，关注22000关口 | | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-07-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22090 | -320 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 50 | -10 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2735.5 | -2.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 261401 | -1332 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 15031 | -6186 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 8071 | 825 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 45364 | 1731 LM ...

沪锌产业日报 2025-06-16 求或将收缩。锌价弱势运行，市场采购谨慎驻足心态，国内社库出现回升，海外延续去库。技术面，持仓 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 上升空头偏强，关注21800关口支撑，以及MA10压力。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢高轻仓做空。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 21840 | 25 07-08月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 260 ...