| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-09-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22255 | -55 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -10 | -5 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2982 | 26 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 214604 | -7147 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | -11031 | -3092 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 52170 | 799 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 94649 | 7617 LME库存(日,吨) | 50150 | -375 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22230 | 0 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22220 | 0 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -25 | 55 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | 26.76 | -3.41 | | | 昆明 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests to temporarily observe or go long with a light position at low prices. The macro - level shows that China's manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded, and the US core PCE price index in July also rose as expected. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the processing fee for zinc ore has continued to rise. The profit of smelters has been further repaired, and the supply growth has accelerated. The import loss has continued to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, downstream is at the end of the off - season, with stable and rising operating rates of processing enterprises. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the spot premium has stabilized at a low level. The overseas LME inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting the zinc price. Technically, the position has increased while the price is adjusting, and attention should be paid to the support level at 22,000 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,175 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 20 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,814 US dollars/ton, up 27 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 227,829 hands, up 4,138 hands; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 13,578 hands, down 2,168 hands; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 37,957 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 85,980 tons, up 8,142 tons; the LME inventory is 56,500 tons, down 1,500 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,100 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,140 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 75 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 6.12 US dollars/ton, up 9.42 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,740 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 129,900 tons, up 5,300 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 11.91%, down 0.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 11.87%, down 0.17%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.71%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.57%, down 0.01% [3] 3.7行业消息 - China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, the new order index rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing sector accelerated its expansion. The US core PCE price index in July rebounded to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The State Council executive meeting studied the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in some regions across the country [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The import volume of zinc mines at home and abroad has increased, the processing fees for zinc mines have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further restoration of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacities and the resumption of previously overhauled capacities, the supply growth has accelerated. The import loss has continued to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has declined, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices, but the overall trading remains dull. The domestic social inventory has continued to increase, and the spot premium has declined. The LME inventory overseas has decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for the domestic zinc price. Technically, the price has adjusted at a low position of open interest, breaking below the MA60. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,000. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,770 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 216,150 lots, an increase of 1,551 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 4,802 lots, an increase of 1,178 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 32,288 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 76,803 tons, an increase of 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 72,200 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.26 dollars/ton, down 1.61 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; the zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 1.149 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.1%, down 0.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.35%, an increase of 0.18% [3]. Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people thought inflation was a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believed that the upside risk of inflation exceeded the downside risk of employment, but some thought the risks were balanced, and two thought the employment risk was more prominent. The National Energy Administration released the total social electricity consumption in July, which reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025-08-07 [2] - Analyst: Wang Fuhui [3] - Qualification Number: Futures practice qualification number F03123381, Futures investment consulting practice certificate number Z0019878 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Fundamentally, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are increasing, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on - demand at low prices, but overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increased positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now or take short - term, light - position long positions. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,580 yuan/ton, a rise of 200 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai zinc was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,795 US dollars/ton, a rise of 45 US dollars/ton. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 209,722 lots, an increase of 7,676 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 7,961 lots, an increase of 4,545 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 13,822 tons, unchanged. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 61,724 tons (weekly), an increase of 2,305 tons. The LME inventory was 89,225 tons (daily), a decrease of 3,050 tons. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,510 yuan/ton, a rise of 180 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,660 yuan/ton, a rise of 240 yuan/ton. - The basis of the ZN main contract was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 9.79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.37 US dollars/ton. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,030 yuan/ton, a rise of 30 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG was 1,007,500 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 628,000 tons (monthly), an increase of 45,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), an increase of 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. The refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), an increase of 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory was 87,300 tons (weekly), an increase of 3,000 tons. [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 130,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters (monthly), an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters (monthly), an increase of 41.8147 million square meters. - The automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles (monthly), an increase of 166,600 vehicles. The air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units (monthly), an increase of 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option on zinc was 13.27% (daily), a decrease of 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option on zinc was 13.27% (daily), a decrease of 0.29%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 8.93% (daily), a decrease of 0.4%. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 13.33% (daily), a decrease of 0.24%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Modi is expected to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, but companies building or promising to build factories in the US, such as Apple and TSMC, are exempted. - The differences in the US - Japan trade agreement continue, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis. - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might indicate a turning point in the US economy. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the zinc market is currently in a complex situation. On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. Zinc prices are in a wide - range adjustment, and both domestic and overseas inventories are rising, putting pressure on zinc prices. Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,130 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 15 yuan, unchanged. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,701.5 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 231,620 lots, down 4,884 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 8,851 lots, down 3,193 lots. - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 12,161 tons, up 977 tons; the SHFE inventory is 49,981 tons, up 4,617 tons; the LME inventory is 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 20 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.95 dollars/ton, down 4.34 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 74,400 tons, up 1,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. - Automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 8.44%, down 0.78%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 12.74%, down 0.01% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year increase was 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. - Trump said he plans to impose "slightly over 10%" tariffs on at least 100 countries and mentioned possible trade agreements [3]. 3.8观点总结 - On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. - Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. - Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report suggests that due to the increase in zinc ore imports and processing fees, along with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, increasing production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously shut - down capacity, supply growth has accelerated. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Zinc prices have adjusted widely, and downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Domestic social inventories are increasing, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas LME inventories are rising, increasing pressure on zinc prices. Technically, with declining positions, both long and short positions are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,045 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,701.5 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 231,620 lots, down 4,884 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 8,851 lots, down 3,193 lots. The Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 12,161 tons, up 977 tons. The SHFE inventory is 49,981 tons, up 4,617 tons, and the LME inventory is 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 21,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 5 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.95 dollars/ton, down 4.34 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 74,400 tons, up 1,900 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 15.78%, down 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 15.78%, down 0.79 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.44%, down 0.78 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.74%, down 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, remaining below expectations for five consecutive months. The EU trade commissioner said there are still significant differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held, stating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22120 | 70 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 75 | -15 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2719 | 36 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 250347 | -3271 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 18212 | 8912 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 8950 | 1001 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 45364 | 1731 LME库存(日,吨) | 108500 | -2100 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22400 | 240 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22250 | 520 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 40 | 50 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -9.88 | 12.17 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | 168 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream is in the off - season, the processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased year - on - year, the downstream consumption is gradually weakening, the inventory shipment speed has slowed down, and the domestic social inventory is stable. However, the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up the domestic price. Technically, the position has decreased, both long and short sides are cautious, the price has broken below the MA10 support, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,735.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 261,401 lots, down 1,332 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 15,031 lots, down 6,186 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 8,071 tons, up 825 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 45,364 tons (weekly), up 1,731 tons; the LME inventory is 112,325 tons (daily), down 350 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,050 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan [3]. - The basis of the main ZN contract is 180 yuan/ton; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 21.64 dollars/ton, up 0.35 dollars [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production (monthly) is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 455,900 tons up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory (weekly) is 63,600 tons, up 2,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.79% (daily), down 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.79% (daily), down 0.35 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.57% (daily), up 1.16 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.96% (daily), up 0.2 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US government will issue notices of new tariff rates to countries without trade agreements from July 4, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, and plans to implement them officially from August 1. The upper limit of 70% is much higher than the 50% announced in April [3]. - Data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that the global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. The index is still in the contraction range, but the continuous small increase reflects that the global economic recovery has picked up [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating provided. 2) Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly. On the supply side, zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and smelter profits are further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, it is the off - season for downstream demand, the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year, and subsequent export demand may shrink due to tariff factors. The domestic social inventory has increased, while overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - side is stronger with rising positions. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly on rallies [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 21,840 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,626.5 dollars/ton, down 17.5 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc is 293,993 lots, down 6,057 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,743 lots, up 2,227 lots. - The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 9,966 tons, up 994 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,466 tons, down 1,546 tons; the LME inventory is 131,000 tons, down 1,025 tons [2]. b) Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,000 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,690 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. - The basis of the main ZN contract is 160 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.95 dollars/ton, up 7.41 dollars. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,180 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. c) Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production by ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [2]. d) Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - The social zinc inventory is 56,300 tons, down 4,900 tons [2]. e) Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the housing completion area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters. - The automobile production is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [2]. f) Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 16.05%, up 1.4%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 16.05%, up 1.4%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.21%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.46%, down 0.02% [2]. g) Industry News - In May 2025, China's social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, and new RMB deposits were nearly 2.18 trillion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap narrowing. - The National Bureau of Statistics disclosed the changes in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities in May 2025, showing that Hangzhou led with a 0.8% month - on - month increase, while Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.4%, increased by 0.7%, decreased by 0.8%, and decreased by 0.4% respectively. - Iranian officials are seriously considering whether to block the Strait of Hormuz; the Israeli attack on Iran has intensified the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and the conflict has expanded to oil and gas facilities [2].