Core Viewpoint - The upcoming oil price adjustment on September 9, 2025, is anticipated to result in an increase, following a series of price fluctuations in the domestic gasoline and diesel markets since July 2025 [1][3][5]. Price Adjustment Mechanism - The domestic gasoline and diesel price adjustment mechanism operates on a 10-working-day cycle, with five adjustments made since July 2025, resulting in a pattern of "1 increase, 2 decreases, and 2 unchanged" [3]. - In July, gasoline and diesel prices increased by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, followed by a decrease of 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton on July 15 [3]. - The overall price changes from July to August resulted in a net decrease of 75 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [3]. Current Market Trends - As of September 5, 2025, the current pricing cycle has seen a 1.52% change in crude oil prices, with an average price of $66.06 per barrel [5]. - The anticipated increase in gasoline and diesel prices has been adjusted to approximately 75 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of about 0.06 yuan per liter [5][7]. - Despite the expectation of a price increase, the international oil market has shown signs of decline, which may impact the final adjustment outcome [7]. Future Outlook - If the current trends continue, the second price increase of the second half of the year may occur, potentially offsetting previous decreases [5][7]. - Market sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over oversupply in the crude oil market and the potential for further production increases by oil-producing countries [7].

Group 1 - The upcoming price adjustment window on July 29 is seen as a potential turning point in the oil price battle, which may tilt the balance in favor of consumers for the first time this year [1][6] - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices have led to a significant drop in domestic oil prices, with a reduction of 130 yuan/ton easing the pressure from previous increases of nearly 835 yuan/ton [1][3] - The current situation in the oil market reflects a supply-demand imbalance, with OPEC's unexpected production increase and rising U.S. gasoline inventories contributing to a decline in Brent crude prices below $68 per barrel [2][4] Group 2 - If international oil prices drop by another $0.5 in the next week, it could lead to the first consecutive price drop of the year, potentially bringing 92-octane gasoline back to the "6 yuan era" [3][6] - The competitive landscape among gas stations is intensifying, with promotions such as "member day discounts" and "nighttime fuel discounts" being introduced to attract customers [3] - The price variations across different regions for 95-octane gasoline highlight the competitive dynamics, with prices ranging from 7.53 yuan in Xinjiang to 8.89 yuan in Hainan [2]