Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and gradually increase production by 1.65 million barrels of oil per month until August 2026, worsening the fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet. Brent and WTI crude oil spreads weakened, while the Dubai near - month spread strengthened. Refining margins in Europe and the US increased significantly, and gasoline and diesel cracks fluctuated upwards. Globally, oil product inventories increased slightly. The fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day, and in 2026, the surplus is expected to be between 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. It is estimated that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years, pressuring crude oil spreads. The absolute price of crude oil is expected to fall to a central range of $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitics and sanctions on Iran and Russia's production cuts [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From September 4 to 10, 2025, WTI prices increased by $1.04, BRENT by $1.10, and DUBAI by $0.91. Other related prices such as NYMEX RB, HO - BRT, etc., also showed corresponding changes. For domestic data, SC increased by 3.40, and domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 68.00 [3] 2. Daily News - Israel's attack and US pressure on the EU pushed up oil prices. The reaction of Qatar is crucial. Meanwhile, the risk of Russian supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks and Western sanctions also supported oil prices. Russia's crude oil exports reached a three - month high, with the four - week average up 4% to about 3.34 million barrels per day, and the seven - day data showing an increase of 200,000 barrels per day to 3.9 million barrels per day [3] 3. Regional Fundamentals - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6] 4. EIA Report - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels (a 0.94% increase), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels (a 0.13% increase), and commercial crude oil imports decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 1.97% year - on - year [14]

Group 1 - As of the week ending September 3, Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.675 million barrels, reaching a 37-week high of 27.399 million barrels [1] - Singapore's middle distillate inventory rose by 510,000 barrels, reaching a 9-week high of 9.841 million barrels [1] - Singapore's light distillate inventory increased by 915,000 barrels, reaching a 2-week high of 14.4 million barrels [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated, and the month - spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at a high level. The US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries from August 1st, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October, and OPEC will complete a 2.2 - billion - barrel supply restoration in September [3]. - Globally, oil product inventories increased this week. In the US, crude oil inventories rose significantly during the week of July 4th, Cushing inventories increased, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 during the week of July 11th, while the fracturing number rebounded [3]. - This week, refining margins in Europe and the US strengthened. The near - month spread of European diesel soared, highlighting supply - demand contradictions. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a reversal of refining margins [3]. - During the peak season of refinery operations, the month - spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+'s suspension of production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the overall situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of post - peak - season demand changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Trump is pressuring Russia to stop the war and may impose "secondary tariffs" on countries that purchase Russian oil. He also plans to supply Ukraine with more weapons. If no agreement is reached within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia [3]. - Analysts believe that Trump's subsequent statement on Russia may not have a significant impact on crude oil. Previous sanctions had little impact on oil flows, and supplying weapons through NATO is unlikely to have a significant impact on oil supply [3]. - Trump's tariff policy is unlikely to affect US imports of gasoline and diesel. Energy products such as gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel are expected to be exempted, and the new tariffs on Canada and Mexico will not cover goods under the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, including energy [3]. 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the US during the week of July 4th, crude oil exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels (a 1.69% increase), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase) [3]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.564 million barrels per day, a 1.61% decrease compared to the same period last year. The import of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) was 6.013 million barrels per day, a decrease of 906,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3]. - During the week of July 4th, the EIA gasoline inventory in the US was - 2.658 million barrels (expected - 1.486 million barrels, previous value 4.188 million barrels), and the EIA refined oil inventory was - 825,000 barrels (expected - 314,000 barrels, previous value - 1.71 million barrels) [3]. - In China, the operating rate of major refineries increased this week, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [3]. 3. Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week, and the month - spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at a high level. Policy - wise, the US plans to impose new tariffs on some countries from August 1st, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October [3]. - Fundamentally, global oil product inventories increased this week. In the US, crude oil inventories increased significantly during the week of July 4th, Cushing inventories increased, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 during the week of July 11th, while the fracturing number rebounded [3]. - This week, refining margins in Europe and the US strengthened. The near - month spread of European diesel soared, highlighting supply - demand contradictions. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a reversal of refining margins [3]. - During the peak season of refinery operations, the month - spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+'s suspension of production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the overall situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of post - peak - season demand changes [3].