Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.47% at 2,802 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.53% at 3,373 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are in a range-bound oscillation, with geopolitical risks remaining due to the volatile situations in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. However, with OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to loosen after the peak season, so the short-term direction of oil prices is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of market rebalancing, with current mixed long and short factors. The near-term supply is relatively abundant, and Singapore's inventory is at a high level. As summer ends, demand in the Middle East is expected to decline, but there is still room for export growth. Short-term market contradictions are limited, and high inventories need to be digested. If cracking callbacks stimulate refinery demand, the market will gain new support [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market spread structure has weakened marginally, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. With the cracking spread at a medium to low level, the downward space is limited. In the medium term, it still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and excess capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, downward in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, downward in the medium term [2] - No strategy for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, or options [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. OPEC+ plans to further increase production in October, with a daily oil production increase of 137,000 barrels in October and a cumulative increase of 1.65 million barrels by August 2026. This deteriorates the crude oil balance sheet in the fourth quarter. Brent and WTI crude oil spreads weakened, while the Dubai near - month spread strengthened due to physical market factors. Refining margins in Europe and the United States strengthened significantly, and gasoline and diesel cracks fluctuated upwards. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased slightly. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels, and the strategic reserve inventory increased by 509,000 barrels. US gasoline inventories decreased rapidly, diesel inventories increased slightly, and residue inventories decreased. European ARA port oil products and Singapore oil production inventories increased significantly. The crude oil balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is estimated that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years, pressuring the crude oil spreads. The absolute price of crude oil is weak in the short - term, and the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitics and sanctions on the supply reduction of Iran and Russia [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily News - Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello stated that the ship sunk by the US in the Caribbean was a fishing boat, accusing the US of "murdering civilians" and suggesting that the US's motive was Venezuela's rich resources such as oil, gas, and gold [4]. - US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that the US could reach a trade agreement with India if India stops buying Russian oil. He also mentioned that a trade agreement with Switzerland is "likely to be completed" and that an agreement with South Korea has been reached but is awaiting document submission [4]. - Due to drone attacks limiting refinery production, Russia's oil product exports in early September significantly shrank, with diesel and naphtha shipments dropping sharply. The average daily export volume in the first 7 days of September was 1.96 million barrels, and if this rate continues, the monthly average export volume will hit a one - year low, a 10% decrease from August [4]. - Saudi Aramco has asked Asian buyers to increase crude oil pick - up in October. After lowering crude oil prices more than expected, Saudi Aramco held off - site discussions with Asian buyers during the APPEC in Singapore, which may delay the October crude oil supply allocation until next week [4]. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: In the week of September 5, US domestic crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day [5]. - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels, a 0.94% increase [5]. - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.888 million barrels per day, a 1.97% increase compared to the same period last year [5]. - EIA report: In the week of September 5, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [5]. - EIA report: In the week of September 5, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 471,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. Weekly Price Data | Date | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | BRENT 1 - 2 Month Spread | WTI - BRENT | DUBAI - BRENT | NYMEX RB | RBOB - BRENT | NYMEX HO | HO - BRENT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/05 | 61.87 | 65.50 | 68.45 | 0.39 | - 3.63 | 0.59 | 196.42 | 17.00 | 228.70 | 30.55 | | 2025/09/08 | 62.26 | 66.02 | 69.03 | 0.35 | - 3.76 | 0.47 | 195.86 | 16.24 | 231.19 | 31.08 | | 2025/09/09 | 62.63 | 66.39 | 69.50 | 0.28 | - 3.76 | 0.34 | 199.25 | 17.30 | 231.99 | 31.05 | | 2025/09/10 | 63.67 | 67.49 | 70.41 | 0.33 | - 3.82 | - 0.04 | 200.80 | 16.85 | 233.37 | 30.53 | | 2025/09/11 | 62.37 | 66.37 | 69.85 | 0.36 | - 4.00 | - 0.02 | 197.93 | 16.76 | 228.19 | 29.47 | | Change | - 1.30 | - 1.12 | - 0.56 | 0.03 | - 0.18 | 0.02 | - 2.87 | - 0.09 | - 5.18 | - 1.06 | | Date | SC | OMAN | SC - BRENT | SC - WTI | Domestic Gasoline | Domestic Gasoline - BRENT | Domestic Diesel | Domestic Diesel - BRENT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/05 | | 482.00 | 2.33 | 5.96 | 7800 | 3923 | 6438 | 3017 | | 2025/09/08 | | 490.50 | 3.04 | 6.80 | 7780 | 3874 | 6456 | 3009 | | 2025/09/09 | | 482.80 | 1.60 | 5.36 | 7800 | 3873 | 6464 | 2999 | | 2025/09/10 | | 486.20 | 0.93 | 4.75 | 7800 | 3805 | - | - | | 2025/09/11 | | 489.20 | 2.50 | 6.50 | 7810 | 3883 | 6469 | 3004 | | Change | | 3.00 | 1.57 | 1.75 | 10.00 | 78.00 | - | - | | Date | Japanese Naphtha CFR | Japanese Naphtha - BRENT | Singapore Fuel Oil 380CST Premium | Singapore 380 - BRENT | SHFE FU Main Contract | SHFE FU - BRENT | SHFE BU Main Contract | SHFE BU - BRENT | HH Natural Gas | BFO | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/05 | 596.25 | 114.83 | - 0.95 | - 92.49 | 2759 | - 93.18 | 3437 | 2.22 | 3.050 | 65.09 | | 2025/09/08 | 594.25 | 109.00 | - 0.5 | - 96.26 | 2767 | - 95.69 | 3440 | - 0.94 | 3.110 | 65.66 | | 2025/09/09 | 597.25 | 109.28 | 0.25 | - 92.78 | 2766 | - 98.43 | 3420 | - 6.33 | 3.120 | 68.1 | | 2025/09/10 | 603.25 | 107.20 | 0.35 | - 100.36 | 2786 | - 104.00 | 3450 | - 10.56 | 2.900 | 67.73 | | 2025/09/11 | - | 116.18 | - 0.4 | - | 2802 | - 93.36 | 3463 | - 0.31 | 2.900 | 67.73 | | Change | - | 8.98 | - 0.75 | - | 16 | 10.64 | 13 | 10.25 | - 0.220 | - 0.37 | [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and gradually increase production by 1.65 million barrels of oil per month until August 2026, worsening the fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet. Brent and WTI crude oil spreads weakened, while the Dubai near - month spread strengthened. Refining margins in Europe and the US increased significantly, and gasoline and diesel cracks fluctuated upwards. Globally, oil product inventories increased slightly. The fourth - quarter crude oil balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day, and in 2026, the surplus is expected to be between 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. It is estimated that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years, pressuring crude oil spreads. The absolute price of crude oil is expected to fall to a central range of $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitics and sanctions on Iran and Russia's production cuts [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From September 4 to 10, 2025, WTI prices increased by $1.04, BRENT by $1.10, and DUBAI by $0.91. Other related prices such as NYMEX RB, HO - BRT, etc., also showed corresponding changes. For domestic data, SC increased by 3.40, and domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 68.00 [3] 2. Daily News - Israel's attack and US pressure on the EU pushed up oil prices. The reaction of Qatar is crucial. Meanwhile, the risk of Russian supply disruptions due to Ukraine's attacks and Western sanctions also supported oil prices. Russia's crude oil exports reached a three - month high, with the four - week average up 4% to about 3.34 million barrels per day, and the seven - day data showing an increase of 200,000 barrels per day to 3.9 million barrels per day [3] 3. Regional Fundamentals - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6] 4. EIA Report - In the week of September 5, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.139 million barrels per day to 2.745 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 72,000 barrels to 13.495 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels (a 0.94% increase), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.2 million barrels (a 0.13% increase), and commercial crude oil imports decreased by 471,000 barrels per day to 6.271 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased by 1.97% year - on - year [14]