20260225申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 494.8 | 493.3 | 62.91 | 62.74 | 69.63 | 68.95 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 457.0 | 460.7 | 64.89 | 64.73 | 69.08 | 68.41 | | | 涨跌 | 37.8 | 32.6 | -1.98 | -1.99 | 0.55 | 0.54 | | | 涨跌幅 | 8.27% | 7.08% | -3.05% | -3.07% | 0.80% | 0.79% | | | 成交量 | 785 | 57,134 | 298,943 | 217,319 | 333,597 ...

IG 市场分析师托尼・西卡莫尔表示："随着后续更多谈判的提上日程，市场对中东石油供应即刻中断的 担忧已大幅缓解。" 上周五，美伊双方在阿曼举行的磋商取得积极进展，此后两国承诺将继续推进谈判。此前市场担忧，若 谈判破裂，中东地区的冲突风险或将升级，而美国此前已在该地区增派了更多军事力量，此次谈判的积 极信号也缓解了这一顾虑。 全球约五分之一的石油贸易运输需经由阿曼与伊朗之间的霍尔木兹海峡。 因美国与伊朗承诺继续就伊朗核问题进行间接谈判，市场对中东地区冲突的担忧有所缓解，潜在的石油 供应中断顾虑消退，国际油价在周一下跌超 1%。 截至格林尼治标准时间 2 月 9 日 7 时 47 分，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌 84 美分，跌幅 1.2%，报每 桶 67.21 美元；美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格下跌 82 美分，跌幅 1.3%，报每桶 62.73 美元。 受地区紧张局势缓和影响，两大原油期货指标上周均下跌超 2%，创下七周以来的首次回落。 不过，伊朗外长表态称，若遭美军袭击，伊朗将对美国在中东地区的军事基地展开反击，这也表明地区 冲突的潜在风险仍在酝酿。 辉立新星高级市场分析师普里扬卡・萨赫德瓦称："各方言辞立 ...

俄驻古巴大使维克托·科罗内利在接受采访时表示，俄罗斯将继续向古巴供应石油。 美国总统特朗普1月29日签署行政令，宣布国家紧急状态，威胁对向古巴直接或间接提供石油国家的输美商品加征从价关税。俄 罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫2月2日与古巴外长罗德里格斯通电话时表示，对古巴进行经济和军事施压，包括阻碍对古能源供应，都 是不可接受的。 来源：央视新闻客户端 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rg y） 编辑丨赵方婷 ▲ 古巴哈瓦那（资料图） 据俄罗斯方面当地时间2月5日消息，俄驻古巴大使维克托·科罗内利在接受采访时表示，俄罗斯将继续向古巴供应石油。 科罗内利说："近年来，俄罗斯多次向古巴供应石油。我们认为这种做法将会继续下去。" ...

新华社符拉迪沃斯托克2月5日电 据俄罗斯卫星通讯社5日报道，俄驻古巴大使维克托·科罗内利在接受卫 星通讯社采访时表示，俄罗斯将继续向古巴供应石油。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In December, domestic LLDPE prices declined, with varying degrees of losses among different production raw material companies [1] Group 1: Market Overview - In December, the domestic PE market experienced price fluctuations and a downward trend, influenced by a weak overall crude oil market and increased supply [1] - The average price of LLDPE at the end of December was 6686 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.78% month-on-month and 25.17% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Upstream Cost Analysis - The average production cost for naphtha-based LLDPE film material decreased by 178 yuan/ton to 6885 yuan/ton, a drop of 2.52% [3] - The average production cost for coal-based LLDPE film material fell by 347 yuan/ton to 6698 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.93% [3] - The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was 57.87 USD/barrel, down 2.71% month-on-month and 16.97% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Profit Margin Insights - The average profit margin for coal-based LLDPE film material production was -241 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to November, indicating a slight alleviation of losses [4] - The average profit margin for naphtha-based LLDPE film material production was -314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 131 yuan/ton from November, indicating an increase in losses [5]

智通财经APP获悉，石油股全线走低，截至发稿，中石油(00857)跌3.03%，报8.01港元；中海油(00883) 跌2.91%，报20.68港元；中石化(00386)跌1.06%，报4.65港元。 消息面上，国际油价周二下跌。纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格报收于每桶57.13美元，跌 幅为2.04%；3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格报收于每桶60.70美元，跌幅为1.72%。据报道，美国总 统特朗普6日称，委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶"受制裁的高品质石油"，此举引发市场对供 应增加的担忧，特朗普在社交媒体上写道，这批石油将按市场价出售，所得资金将由他"亲自监管"。 ...

自美国上月开始实施封锁以来，委内瑞拉确实积压了大量未运输的石油，储存在储油罐和租赁船舶中。 根据航运情报公司Kpler的数据，委国家石油公司已储存了数百万桶石油，可能在未来几周内耗尽备用 存储空间。 "即使是5000万桶的高估值，在政治层面看似重大，但在经济层面影响有限，"Karobaar Capital LP首席 投资官哈里什·库尔希德表示。"这属于一次性流动，而非结构性供应转变。" 智通财经获悉，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，委内瑞拉将向美国移交多达5000万桶石油，并称这些石 油将按市价出售，所得收益将使两国共同受益。 "我很高兴地宣布，委内瑞拉临时当局将向美利坚合众国移交3000万至5000万桶受制裁的高品质石 油，"特朗普在社交媒体发文称。"这些石油将按市场价出售，所得资金将由我作为美国总统监管，以确 保其用于造福委内瑞拉和美国人民!" WTI原油在特朗普发表言论后下跌多达2.4%。 若特朗普所述属实，这些石油数量相当于美国对委实施部分封锁前委内瑞拉约30至50天的产量——远低 于历史水平。按当前WTI价格计算，这批原油价值最高可达28亿美元。 美国能源部和白宫代表未立即回应置评请求。委内瑞拉信息部和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Crude prices experienced a decline following the U.S. government's decision to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and take control of the oil-producing nation [1] Group 1 - The U.S. has taken a significant political action by removing Maduro, which is expected to impact the oil market [1] - The control over Venezuela's oil resources by the U.S. could lead to changes in crude oil supply dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The "Big Three" oil companies in the market experienced declines, with China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation dropping over 4%, and Sinopec falling nearly 2% [1] - Specific stock performance includes: China Petroleum (down 4.23% to 8.160, market cap 1.49 trillion), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (down 4.21% to 20.940, market cap 995.277 billion), and Sinopec (down 1.70% to 4.620, market cap 558.676 billion) [2] - Oil prices fell in the Asian morning session, with Brent crude nearing $60 per barrel and WTI close to $57 per barrel, influenced by ample supply despite concerns over political turmoil in Venezuela affecting oil transport [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that global oil supply is sufficient, suggesting that further disruptions in Venezuelan exports will not have a direct impact on prices [3] - Reports from sources familiar with Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA state that the U.S. operation to capture Maduro did not damage Venezuela's oil production or refining industry [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw declines in the "three oil giants," with China National Petroleum Corporation and CNOOC both dropping over 4%, and Sinopec falling nearly 2% [1][2] - Oil prices in Asia fell, influenced by ample supply, despite concerns that the political turmoil in Venezuela could disrupt oil transportation [1] - Brent crude oil prices approached $60 per barrel, while WTI neared $57 per barrel [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicated that the global oil supply is sufficient, suggesting that further disruptions in Venezuelan exports would not have a direct impact on prices [1] - Reports from Reuters cited two sources familiar with the operations of Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA, stating that the U.S. operation to capture Maduro did not damage Venezuela's oil production and refining sectors [1]