Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated, and the month - spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at a high level. The US plans to impose new tariffs on over 20 countries from August 1st, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October, and OPEC will complete a 2.2 - billion - barrel supply restoration in September [3]. - Globally, oil product inventories increased this week. In the US, crude oil inventories rose significantly during the week of July 4th, Cushing inventories increased, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 during the week of July 11th, while the fracturing number rebounded [3]. - This week, refining margins in Europe and the US strengthened. The near - month spread of European diesel soared, highlighting supply - demand contradictions. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a reversal of refining margins [3]. - During the peak season of refinery operations, the month - spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+'s suspension of production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the overall situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of post - peak - season demand changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Trump is pressuring Russia to stop the war and may impose "secondary tariffs" on countries that purchase Russian oil. He also plans to supply Ukraine with more weapons. If no agreement is reached within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia [3]. - Analysts believe that Trump's subsequent statement on Russia may not have a significant impact on crude oil. Previous sanctions had little impact on oil flows, and supplying weapons through NATO is unlikely to have a significant impact on oil supply [3]. - Trump's tariff policy is unlikely to affect US imports of gasoline and diesel. Energy products such as gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel are expected to be exempted, and the new tariffs on Canada and Mexico will not cover goods under the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, including energy [3]. 2. Regional Fundamentals - In the US during the week of July 4th, crude oil exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels (a 1.69% increase), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase) [3]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.564 million barrels per day, a 1.61% decrease compared to the same period last year. The import of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) was 6.013 million barrels per day, a decrease of 906,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3]. - During the week of July 4th, the EIA gasoline inventory in the US was - 2.658 million barrels (expected - 1.486 million barrels, previous value 4.188 million barrels), and the EIA refined oil inventory was - 825,000 barrels (expected - 314,000 barrels, previous value - 1.71 million barrels) [3]. - In China, the operating rate of major refineries increased this week, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [3]. 3. Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated this week, and the month - spreads of the three major crude oil markets oscillated at a high level. Policy - wise, the US plans to impose new tariffs on some countries from August 1st, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases from October [3]. - Fundamentally, global oil product inventories increased this week. In the US, crude oil inventories increased significantly during the week of July 4th, Cushing inventories increased, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs decreased by 1 during the week of July 11th, while the fracturing number rebounded [3]. - This week, refining margins in Europe and the US strengthened. The near - month spread of European diesel soared, highlighting supply - demand contradictions. The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China were neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation of gasoline and diesel in China and a reversal of refining margins [3]. - During the peak season of refinery operations, the month - spreads of crude oil are expected to remain high. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+'s suspension of production increases in the fourth quarter will not change the overall situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of post - peak - season demand changes [3].

IEA在月度油市报告中将今年全球石油需求增长预测从72.4万桶/日下调至70.4万桶/日（除疫情外，2009年以来最低增速），明年预期从73.9万桶/日下调至72.2万桶/日。随着欧佩克+增产，今年全球供应量将从此前预测的180万桶/日增加至210万桶/日。None (@None):None ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that OPEC+ will further increase oil supply in September, with an expected production increase of 550,000 barrels per day [1] Group 1 - OPEC+ is expected to boost oil production in September [1] - The anticipated increase in production is 550,000 barrels per day [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices have retraced all gains since the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict, with WTI and Brent crude contracts dropping nearly 9% [1] - Following the Iranian missile attack on the U.S. base in Qatar, oil markets began to sell off, despite no disruptions reported in Qatar's energy transportation or production [3][4] - The U.S. energy companies have reduced the number of oil and gas drilling rigs for eight consecutive weeks, marking the lowest level since November 2021 [5] Group 2 - The Iranian missile strike was perceived as a calculated response, with analysts suggesting it was designed to avoid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz [4] - The shipping costs for supertankers have more than doubled in a week, reaching over $60,000 per day, indicating increased market volatility [7] - There are concerns about potential shipping delays as vessel owners aim to minimize time spent in the Strait of Hormuz, with some vessels opting to wait outside the region [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The conflict in the Middle East may impact oil supply, as stated by the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde [1] Group 1 - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East are likely to create uncertainties in the global oil market [1] - Potential disruptions in oil supply could lead to increased volatility in oil prices [1] - The European Central Bank is monitoring the situation closely due to its implications for economic stability [1]

Geopolitical Tensions - Closing the Strait of Hormuz would escalate tensions between Iran and the US along with its allies, potentially leading to military confrontations and conflicts [1] - Surrounding countries may find themselves caught in diplomatic struggles, requiring significant international efforts to mediate disputes [1] Oil Supply Disruption - Approximately one-third of global maritime oil transportation passes through the Strait, and its closure would severely restrict oil supply [1] - A significant reduction in oil supply could lead to a sharp increase in international oil prices, creating an energy crisis for oil-importing nations [1] Economic Impact - Rising oil prices could trigger a domino effect, adversely affecting the real economy by increasing production costs and overall prices, thereby raising living costs for the public [1] - There is a risk of a global economic recession due to disrupted international trade and increased transportation costs for goods reliant on oil shipping [1] Shipping Safety Concerns - The closure would pose risks to shipping safety, as vessels would need to take longer routes, increasing travel time and costs while facing higher security threats [3] - The likelihood of shipping accidents may rise due to factors such as piracy and adverse weather conditions [3] Regional Instability - Countries surrounding the Strait that depend on its trade would suffer economically, potentially leading to social unrest and protests among communities reliant on the Strait for their livelihoods [3] - The cumulative effect of internal instability could result in a broader state of turmoil in the region [3]

Group 1 - The Thai Ministry of Energy is closely monitoring the impact of Israel and Iran on oil supply [1]

Group 1 - The focus remains on the Middle East, with ongoing missile exchanges between Israel and Iran [1] - The impact of the conflict is gradually diminishing, as long as oil supply remains unaffected, the war can continue without significant macroeconomic consequences [1] - There are initial signs that Iran is seeking to de-escalate tensions, as the Iranian Foreign Minister indicated readiness for diplomatic talks if Israel ceases its aggression [1]

Core Viewpoint - WTI Midland's physical price in the export market has reached a one-month high, driven by investor concerns over the supply situation of Libyan oil [1] Group 1 - WTI Midland's export market price has increased, indicating a positive trend in pricing [1] - Investor anxiety regarding the supply of Libyan oil is influencing market dynamics [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on May 21, the July 2025 WTI (after contract roll) dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel, a decline of 0.74%; the July 2025 Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.72% [1] - The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held in Rome on May 23. The market is skeptical about whether the US and Iran can reach a nuclear deal. Also, Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks break down [2] - For the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories increased to 443.2 million barrels, still 6% lower than the five - year average. The unexpected inventory growth contrasts with market expectations [3] - Currently, the two negotiations are progressing poorly, but trade tensions are temporarily eased, providing short - term support for international oil prices. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited due to Trump's uncertain tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, oil supply pressure will increase. Oil prices will still face pressure considering factors like a weak economic recovery outlook and new energy substitution [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Oil Price Performance - As of May 21, 2025, the July WTI dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel with a 0.74% decline, and the July Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel with a 0.72% decrease [1] Negotiation Situation - The fifth round of Iran - US nuclear negotiations is scheduled for May 23 in Rome. Market doubts the possibility of a deal, and Israel may strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks fail [2] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories rose to 443.2 million barrels, 6% lower than the five - year average, contrary to market expectations of a decrease [3] Market Outlook - Short - term oil prices are supported by eased trade tensions but have limited upside due to Trump's tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase. Long - term, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, supply pressure will grow, and oil prices will be pressured by factors such as a weak economic recovery and new energy substitution [4]