Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil inventories increased slightly. Policy-wise, the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may conduct nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude. On the supply side, the Kurdish oil fields were attacked, and about 200,000 barrels per day of production is at risk of interruption. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the cracking spread of European diesel led the profit growth on the product side. After Independence Day, the apparent demand for gasoline in the US dropped significantly, and the global gasoline cracking spread has been fluctuating recently. This week, global refinery profits strengthened on a week-on-week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week-on-week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations. During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter - month structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently. In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 18 was - 577,000 barrels, with an expected - 646,000 barrels and a previous value of 839,000 barrels [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the next round of China - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded, stating that China's stance on tariffs is consistent and clear, hoping that the US will work with China to implement the important consensus reached in the phone calls between the two heads of state, play the role of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China - US relations [3]. - Iran will hold a tri - party meeting with China and Russia on the Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian Foreign Ministry criticized European countries for using the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism as a tool to threaten Iran [3]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. In China, refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with gasoline inventories rising and diesel inventories falling. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries both declined on a week - on - week basis [5]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - Crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range this week, with the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declining slightly and global oil inventories increasing slightly [6]. - Policy: The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may conduct nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and the decision to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude [6]. - Supply: The Kurdish oil fields were attacked, and about 200,000 barrels per day of production is at risk of interruption [6]. - Fundamentals: Global oil inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching historical lows, and the cracking spread of European diesel led the profit growth on the product side. After Independence Day, the apparent demand for gasoline in the US dropped significantly, and the global gasoline cracking spread has been fluctuating recently. Global refinery profits strengthened on a week - on - week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week - on - week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations [6]. - Outlook: During the peak season of actual crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter - month structure. However, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently. In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the contradiction between non - OPEC production and the near - term diesel inventory [6]. 3.4 EIA Report - For the week ending July 11, US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day [18]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day [18]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decrease of 0.91% [18]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the same period last year [18]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.07% [18]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The spreads of the three major crude oil markets remained high. Policy-wise, the US will impose new tariffs on over 20 countries starting August 1st, and other trading partners may face a 15% - 20% tariff. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases starting October. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week. US refinery profits strengthened, and the supply - demand contradiction in European diesel was prominent. Asian and domestic gasoline and diesel fundamentals were neutral, with domestic gasoline and diesel inventory accumulation accelerating and refinery profits being eroded. In the peak refinery season, crude oil spreads are expected to remain high - oscillating. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+ suspending production increases in the fourth quarter won't change the situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of demand change after the peak season [5]. 3. Summary by Related Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From July 11th to July 17th, WTI increased by $1.16 to $67.54, Brent by $1.00 to $69.52, and Dubai by $0.31 to $70.24. NYMEX RB increased by 2.64 to 217.04, and HO increased by 7.31 to 246.46. SC decreased by 0.60 to 516.80, and OMAN increased by 0.88 to 69.18. Japanese naphtha - BRT decreased by 13.98 to 63.78, and Singapore 380 - BRT had a change in the spread [3]. 3.2 Daily News - India's oil minister is confident in meeting India's oil demand if Russian oil supplies are affected by secondary sanctions. Russia's gasoline and diesel reserves are close to historical highs, ensuring domestic supply. Two of Iran's nuclear facilities damaged by the US have a relatively low damage level, and Trump rejected a more comprehensive military strike plan against Iran's nuclear program [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - This week, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with diesel inventory accumulating. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [4]. 3.4 EIA Report - For the week ending July 11th, US crude oil exports increased by 76.1 barrels per day to 351.8 barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 1.0 barrel to 1337.5 barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 385.9 barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2026.2 barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease year - on - year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 30.0 barrels to 4027 million barrels, a 0.07% decrease. Crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 637.9 barrels per day, an increase of 36.6 barrels per day from the previous week [16].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical situations. The U.S. announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, and Iran declared retaliation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A cease - fire between Israel and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Fundamentally, EIA U.S. commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, global oil inventories were basically flat, and diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The oil futures monthly spread continued to strengthen, approaching the 2022 level. The medium - to - long - term fundamental oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are greatly amplified by geopolitical factors [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From June 18 - 24, 2025, WTI decreased from $75.14 to $64.37, a change of - $4.14; BRENT decreased from $76.70 to $67.14, a change of - $4.34; DUBAI decreased from $70.84 to $69.13, a change of - $0.75. Other related products also showed price changes, such as SC decreasing by 55.90 yuan, and domestic gasoline - BRT increasing by 262.00 yuan [3] 2. Daily News - On June 24, Iranian President Pezeshkian announced that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel ended, and reconstruction work would start. Israel's plot to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities and cause social unrest failed, while its important facilities were damaged. Israel's Prime Minister's Office confirmed the attack on an Iranian radar facility and then suspended further military strikes after a call between Trump and Netanyahu [3] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 20 was - 427.7 million barrels, compared with an expected - 18.3 million barrels and a previous value of - 1013.3 million barrels [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 1.075 million barrels per day to 4.361 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 0.3 million barrels to 13.431 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 2.65% decrease), strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 0.23 million barrels to 402.3 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 0.672 million barrels per day to 5.504 million barrels per day. The U.S. four - week average supply of crude oil products was 19.981 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease from the same period last year [4] - In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, the Shandong local refinery operating rate fell, the production of gasoline and diesel increased, the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased, gasoline and diesel were stocked up, the main refinery comprehensive profit rebounded, and the local refinery comprehensive profit improved [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices have shown a strong performance, with the fundamental situation tightening on a sequential basis. Geopolitical risks have escalated, leading to increased fluctuations in crude oil spreads and stronger absolute prices. WTI has outperformed Brent and Dubai. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have increased, while US commercial inventories have decreased more than expected, and the number of US oil rigs has significantly declined. On the negative side, leading data on the US job market shows signs of cooling, and the latest apparent demand for US gasoline and diesel has dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of terminal product demand. This week, refining margins in Europe and the US have declined on a sequential basis, while those in Asia have remained high. Saudi Arabia and other countries have lowered their official selling prices to Asia in July to multi - year lows, and there are market rumors that Saudi Arabia intends to push OPEC+ to continue increasing production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and September to consolidate market share. Recently, the valuation repair of Brent and WTI crude oil has been realized, and the focus has shifted to whether geopolitical risks (such as the US - Iran and Israel - Palestine situations) will substantially escalate. High - altitude opportunities for absolute prices can be monitored [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - Middle East tensions have sharply escalated, with the US partially evacuating its personnel. Trump has expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran nuclear deal, and Iran has warned of potential strikes on US military bases. The US military has authorized the voluntary departure of military families from the Middle East, and the scale of the US mission in Iraq has been reduced. Israel's military has been on high alert, and the UK has warned of potential "military activity escalation." Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander - in - Chief has stated that upgraded missiles are ready for any battle [3][4][5]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, in the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 90,000 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels (a decrease of 0.63%), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels (an increase of 0.2%). This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with major refineries seeing increases in both, and independent refineries seeing decreases in both. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries increased for gasoline and decreased for diesel. Gasoline and diesel inventories in China decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded on a sequential basis, and that of local refineries improved on a sequential basis [6]. 3.3 Weekly Data - From June 5 to June 11, 2025, WTI increased by 3.17, Brent increased by 2.90, and Dubai increased by 1.93. SC decreased by 1.70, and Oman increased by 2.61. Other related products also showed various price changes, such as a 20.00 decrease in domestic gasoline prices and a 192.00 decrease in domestic gasoline - Brent differentials [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated, but the operation rating implies an unclear short - term trend [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in terms of a star rating, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [1][3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market for crude oil is oscillating strongly, but there may be short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced. The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets show different trends, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing weak demand and low - sulfur fuel oil following the crude oil trend. The asphalt market has a short - term callback pressure on the cracking spread but the upward trend is not reversed. The LPG market has stabilized with limited downward space and remains in low - level oscillation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC07 contract rising 0.69% during the day. The crude oil month - spread and spot premium are stronger than the single - side price, indicating tight physical supply as the peak season approaches. Since the second quarter, global oil inventory accumulation has exceeded that of the first quarter. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 3.3 million barrels. The market is short - term oscillating strongly, but the rapid production increase by OPEC+ may make the supply - demand tightness unsustainable [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a differentiated trend today, with LU performing relatively strongly. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still low. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has some support, but the expected lower temperature in Saudi Arabia and Egypt this summer and the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread may lead to more crude oil used for power generation. In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil in Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons. The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread and EFS are expected to weaken together. The low - sulfur fuel oil bunkering volume in Fujairah decreased significantly last week, and the overseas ship - fuel demand peak season is approaching the end. With low supply in China, the port bonded inventory has decreased significantly, and low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the crude oil trend [3] Asphalt - Asphalt performed relatively weakly today, and the BU cracking spread continued a slight downward trend. The June diluted asphalt premium is still at a high of - $6.5 per barrel, and refinery production depends on crude oil quotas. After the peak of major refinery overhauls, the refinery's operation is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining and export profits, and the supply increase lacks resilience. The seasonal demand improvement has been realized, but the real driving force is still awaited. The balance sheet estimates that the de - stocking trend will continue and the inventory level is low. The BU cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [4] LPG - The June CP reduction is relatively small. Although the Middle East supply is still abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment, and the market decline has stabilized. The domestic arrival volume at the beginning of the month and the domestic - produced gas have both declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downward space. The spot - market surplus pressure has eased, and the futures market has stabilized with the rise of crude oil, but the improvement of chemical profit margins lacks momentum, and it remains in low - level oscillation [5]