Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The Chinese government's decision to impose tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and as the production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,428, with a basis of 178, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply is expected to increase in the future [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,888, with a basis of 50, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 9,000 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil applies, with a neutral outlook and increasing supply [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,623, with a basis of 81, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stocks-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].