菜籽系产业日报 2025-11-25 重点关注 周一我的农产品网油菜籽开机率及各地区菜油粕库存量，中加贸易关系走向 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 40 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 9818 | 2431 | -15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-11-25投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8362，基差194，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8400附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to the limited import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the shutdown of coastal oil mills. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening as aquaculture demand decreases with the drop in temperature, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages. The market has large fluctuations recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there are breakthroughs in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The international oil market is weak, but the domestic rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs because of the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. After a continuous rise, the rapeseed oil futures price has slightly declined recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9779 yuan/ton, down 34; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2412 yuan/ton, down 7; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 650.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.7; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5551 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 380 yuan/ton, up 17; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 35 yuan/ton, up 3 [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 233465 lots, down 9832; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 377665 lots, down 9671. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are - 3446 lots, down 2701; for rapeseed meal are - 22471 lots, down 5559 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 4131, down 30; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2000, unchanged [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10070 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10163.75 yuan/ton, down 100; the import cost of rapeseed is 7986.7 yuan/ton, down 89.01 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 66; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 7 [2]. **Substitute Spot Prices** - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8670 yuan/ton, down 70; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3000 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. - The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 30; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 600 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports and Profits**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 659 yuan/ton, up 29 [2]. - **Inventory and开机率**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.08 tons, down 0.52 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 40.05 tons, down 2.37 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.48 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan [2]. **Options Market** - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.4%, down 0.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.96%, down 0.05; the 20 - day historical volatility is 21.43%, down 0.03; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.4%, down 0.32 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.7%, up 0.24; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.69%, up 0.23; the 20 - day historical volatility is 15.04%, up 0.13; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75%, up 0.05 [2]. **Industry News** - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on Wednesday, dragged down by the decline of other vegetable oil and crude oil futures. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 6 Canadian dollars and settled at 650.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - USDA unexpectedly lowered the US soybean export forecast for 2025/26. Although the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good and Chinese buyers started to purchase US soybeans this week, the soybean market was sold off after the report was released [2]. - The China - Canada trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export of Canadian rapeseed has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan takes rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote the export of Canadian rapeseed to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the palm oil production in Malaysia increased while exports declined in November, with inventory pressure still existing, dragging down the international oil market [2].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-11-17 格形成支撑。不过，豆油供应充裕，且替代优势良好，使得菜油需求维持刚需为主。盘面来看，近来菜油期价低位反弹走强，短期 波动加大，短线参与为主。 重点关注 周一我的农产品网油菜籽开机率及各地区菜油粕库存量，中加贸易关系走向 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | -43 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 9880 ...

Group 1 - The average spot price of imported rapeseed oil in China on November 14 is reported at 10,383.75 CNY per ton, which is 460.75 CNY higher than the futures main contract price of 9,923.00 CNY per ton [1] - The futures market for rapeseed oil closed at 9,923.00 CNY per ton on November 14, with a daily increase of 0.33%, reaching a high of 10,017.00 CNY per ton and a low of 9,910.00 CNY per ton, with a trading volume of 263,662 contracts [1] - The prices for grade three rapeseed oil vary across different regions in China, with prices ranging from 10,130 CNY to 10,330 CNY per ton [1] Group 2 - Canadian canola exports decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons for the week ending November 9, down from 188,400 tons the previous week, with total exports from August 1 to November 9 at 1,544,400 tons, a 54.1% decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of November 9, Canadian canola commercial stocks are reported at 1,367,600 tons [2] - Australia's canola production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 6.3 million tons, consistent with previous forecasts [2] Group 3 - Current conditions indicate that coastal oil mills are not operating, with zero inventory of rapeseed and no imports in November, leading to a significant rebound in domestic rapeseed oil prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to restricted imports and widespread oil - mill shutdowns, but the demand is weak because of the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The price of rapeseed meal has slightly declined recently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the sufficient supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at the rigid level. The rapeseed oil futures price has rebounded from a low level recently, with increased short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and ICE rapeseed futures are 9840 yuan/ton, 2494 yuan/ton, and 642.5 Canadian dollars/ton respectively, with changes of 65 yuan/ton, - 6 yuan/ton, and 3.8 Canadian dollars/ton compared to the previous period [2]. - The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil (1 - 5) and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) are 450 yuan/ton and 62 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 24 yuan/ton and - 17 yuan/ton [2]. - The positions of the main contracts for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 221,984 lots and 468,864 lots respectively, with increases of 4090 lots and 3026 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 2456 lots and 35,853 lots respectively, with changes of - 268 lots and an increase of 3275 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 5373 lots and 2745 lots respectively, with changes of - 325 lots and 0 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu and rapeseed meal in Nantong are 10,030 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 200 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,147.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The import cost of rapeseed is 7956.03 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.05 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The oil - meal ratio is 3.88, with an increase of 0.08 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract and rapeseed meal contract are 255 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 12 yuan/ton and - 24 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot prices of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing, 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang are 8550 yuan/ton, 8620 yuan/ton, and 3050 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal are 1490 yuan/ton, 1420 yuan/ton, and 550 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 100 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 90.96 million tons, with an increase of 1.38 million tons. The annual predicted production of rapeseed in a certain area is 13,446 thousand tons, with an increase of 1068 thousand tons [2]. - The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 11.53 million tons, with a decrease of 13.13 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 734 yuan/ton, with an increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.5 million tons, with a decrease of 0.5 million tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, with a decrease of 1.6% [2]. - The monthly import volumes of rapeseed oil and mustard oil, and rapeseed meal are 16 million tons and 15.77 million tons respectively, with changes of 2 million tons and - 5.57 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The coastal area inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 2.6 million tons and 0.5 million tons respectively, with changes of - 1.2 million tons and - 0.21 million tons [2]. - The inventories of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region and rapeseed meal in the East China and South China regions have different changes. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 1.31 million tons and 0.2 million tons respectively, with decreases of 0.53 million tons and 0.19 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly production values of feed and edible vegetable oil are 3128.7 million tons and 495 million tons respectively, with increases of 201.5 million tons and 44.4 million tons [2]. - The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4508.6 billion yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal are 20.94%, with changes of - 0.28% and - 0.29% respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities are 24.18% and 24.97% respectively, with changes of 0.08% and - 1.51% [2]. - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil are 13.96% and 13.97% respectively, with increases of 0.91% and 0.92%. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities are 14.38% and 15.25% respectively, with changes of 0.23% and - 0.62% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The ICE rapeseed futures were closed on Tuesday. The optimistic sentiment in Sino - US trade boosted the US soybean futures price, but the recent rise has slowed down [2]. - The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export volume of Canadian rapeseed from August 1 to November 2, 2025, decreased by 54.1% compared to the same period last year, but Canada and Pakistan reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports [2]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first ten days of November is still poor, but the market's pessimistic sentiment has eased slightly due to the significantly higher - than - expected exports in October [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with common shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. But the supply of soybean oil is abundant and has a good substitution advantage, so the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for essential needs. The rapeseed oil futures price has recovered from the low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The latest price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9587 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; the latest price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2527 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 413 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 99 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. - The positions of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased by 1514 hands and 12225 hands respectively. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 701 hands, while that of rapeseed meal increased by 4068 hands [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 926 to 4098, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2745 [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 638.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9830 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9947.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7886.06 yuan/ton, up 108.76 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.8, up 0.02 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 243 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 3 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1390 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 716 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 1 million tons, down 1 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, down 1.6 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 3.8 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 0.5 million tons, down 0.21 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.41%, down 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.42%, down 1.15 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.7%, down 1.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 26.88%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.2%, down 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.24%, down 1.09 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.67%, down 1.27 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.4%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On November 7 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by speculative positions before the weekend. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 6.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 640 Canadian dollars per ton, up about 0.5% for the week [2]. - As of the week ending November 2, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 21.2% to 18.84 million tons compared with the previous week. From August 1 to November 2, 2025, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 142.33 million tons, a decrease of 54.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [2][3]. - China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons per year in the next three years. The optimistic sentiment in the US soybean trade has boosted the US soybean futures price, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market. Recently, the rise of US soybean futures has slowed down [2]. Key Points of Attention - The rapeseed oil - meal inventory in each region and the rapeseed oil - meal operating rate released by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing mixed performance, with canola oil futures showing volatility and a downward trend in prices, influenced by various supply and demand factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola oil futures opened at 9712.00 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a maximum of 9722.00 CNY and a minimum of 9449.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.09% [1]. - As of the end of week 43 in 2025, domestic imported canola seed inventory totaled 0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous week, compared to 700,000 tons during the same period last year [1]. - The number of canola oil futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 7840 as of October 28 [1]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the export of Australian canola to China remains unstable, influenced by recent statements from the Australian Prime Minister, which may affect the risk premium in the canola market [2]. - The supply pressure from the Canadian canola harvest is significant, with reduced exports impacting prices, while domestic policies regarding anti-dumping on Canadian canola are expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter [2]. - The market is expected to see a rebound in canola meal prices in the short term, while canola oil prices are likely to remain under pressure due to ample soybean oil supply and strong demand primarily driven by necessity [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Sugar**: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn**: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - **Pigs**: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - **Eggs**: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - **Stock Index**: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply of Canadian rapeseed imports in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases as the temperature drops and soybean supply is relatively abundant. The overall trend of rapeseed meal is weak, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also affected by multiple factors. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is in place, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil, and it is necessary to continue to follow the trend of China - Canada trade policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9748 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5344 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 383 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 12 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 7501 lots, down 415 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 108969 lots, down 334 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540 sheets, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4050 sheets, down 210 sheets [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10117.5 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan, and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 7529.12 yuan/ton, down 10.16 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 239 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 75 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total rapeseed import volume is 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 million tons, down 2 million tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 2.93%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. 3.4产业情况 - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 5.2 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 million tons, down 0.37 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 49.9 million tons, down 1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 27.2 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.9 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.1 million tons, down 0.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.63 million tons, up 1.41 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.97 million tons, down 0.12 million tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6期权市场 - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.43%, down 0.48 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 19.43%, down 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 0.41 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 13.1%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 23.23%, down 1.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 25.01%, up 0.02 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.58%, down 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.72%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on October 24 due to the decline in other vegetable oil prices but still recorded a weekly gain. The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract fell 1.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 632.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather conditions, and the expected high yield of US soybeans restricts its market price. China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, and the export pressure of US soybeans remains. However, the China - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from the 25th to the 26th supported the US soybean market price [2]. 3.8重点关注 - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventory in each region announced by myagricultural.com on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and China - US trade relations [2].