证券代码：839979 油脂早报 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8538，基差38，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜 加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-08-26投资咨询部 棕榈油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：棕榈油现货9638，基差56，现货升水期货。中性 3.库存：8月22日棕榈油港口库存58万吨，前值57万吨，环比+1万吨，同比-34.1%。偏多 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：棕榈油主力多翻空。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜 加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓和宏观层面影响市 场。棕榈油P2601：9400-9800附近区间震荡 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资 ...

八月中州，高朋满座。2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛在各方的期待中启幕，并在热烈掌声中落下帷 幕。本届论坛以"开放"与"风险管理"为关键词，来自监管机构、境内外交易所以及产业界的众多代表集 聚一堂，围绕中国期货市场高水平对外开放、创新赋能实体经济发展等热点话题深入交流，共同描绘期 货市场国际化发展与期现深度融合的新蓝图。 凝聚共识，开放迈入新阶段 论坛上，各方嘉宾一致认为，持续扩大开放是中国期货市场行稳致远的重要路径。中国期货业协会党委 书记、会长杨光表示，期货市场高水平对外开放不仅是构建新发展格局、增强国内国际两个市场联动效 应的关键环节，更是落实党中央决策部署的具体实践。 郑商所相关负责人也表示，推进期货市场对外开放能够为国际市场提供更多的期货和期权产品供给，吸 引更多境外客户参与，提升大宗商品价格的影响力。 期货日报记者从论坛上了解到，中国期货市场在对外开放领域取得了一系列重要成果。一是"引进来"。 自2018年首个对外开放期货品种原油期货上市以来，截至2025年7月底，境内已有24个特定品种，覆盖 能源、金属、农产品、航运等领域。摩根大通期货、瑞银期货、摩根士丹利期货等期货公司已实现 100%外资持股 ...

期货日报网讯(记者邬梦雯)8月20日，由郑州商品交易所、芝加哥商业交易所集团联合主办的2025中国 (郑州)国际期货论坛正式召开。在当日下午举行的农产品(油脂油料)论坛上，郑商所相关负责人表示， 当前，全球经济格局深度调整，贸易不确定性上升，商品价格波动加大，油脂油料产业正经历供需结构 重构的关键时期。作为服务实体经济的金融基础设施，郑商所始终秉持"让实体看见方向助经济稳健运 行"的使命，以品种创新为矛、对外开放为帆、产融协同为基，为产业链构建高质量风险管理体系。 我国在全球油脂油料贸易中扮演着重要角色，是菜籽油、菜籽粕全球第二大进口和第一大消费国，是花 生最大的进口国和消费国。面对世界贸易格局变化，期货市场助力产业稳健运行的作用愈发凸显。 上述郑商所相关负责人介绍，郑商所深耕油脂油料市场多年，持续优化油脂油料品种规则，稳步推进品 种对外开放，深入开展各种产业培育活动，为中国油脂油料产业安全和高质量发展提供期货力量。 具体来看，筑牢品种体系与制度建设是保障市场稳健运行的核心。郑商所油脂油料品种体系从2007年菜 籽油期货起步，先后上市了菜籽粕、花生等油脂油料期货、期权品种，为产业提供了丰富的风险管理工 具。今 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall view is to maintain a bullish stance. Although the domestic oil mill operation rate is relatively high and soybean meal is in a state of inventory accumulation, which suppresses the price of the meal market, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts seasonal demand. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal [2]. - For rapeseed oil, it is also recommended to participate from a bullish perspective. In the short term, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply restrain the market price. But the low oil mill operation rate reduces the output pressure, fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply - side pressure, and the temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil's active - contract closing price is 9850 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; rapeseed meal's is 2604 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; ICE rapeseed's is 652.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and domestic rapeseed's is 4919 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil's 1 - 5 spread is 151 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; rapeseed meal's 1 - 5 spread is 99 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - Main - contract positions: Rapeseed oil's main - contract position is 288,604 lots, down 2034 lots; rapeseed meal's is 437,984 lots, up 3654 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil's is 2633 lots, down 175 lots; rapeseed meal's is 2024 lots, up 7061 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil's is 3487 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal's is 8721 sheets, down 1100 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,030 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9710 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average price: Rapeseed oil's average price is 10,095 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2]. - Import cost: The import cost of rapeseed is 8220.57 yuan/ton, down 86.21 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil's main - contract basis is 204 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal's is 46 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Price spreads: The rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price spread is 1200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price spread is 460 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price spread is 420 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production forecasts: Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; domestic rapeseed annual production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: Rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import quantity is 15 tons, up 4 tons; rapeseed meal import quantity is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, up 5 tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.94%, down 4.9 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 596 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.45 tons, down 0.55 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 tons, down 0.65 tons; East China rapeseed oil inventory is 54.2 tons, down 0.72 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 33.25 tons, up 0.68 tons; Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 5 tons, down 0.5 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.8 tons, up 0.8 tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil's weekly提货量 is 3.76 tons, up 0.29 tons; rapeseed meal's is 3.24 tons, up 0.52 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production is 2937.7 tons, up 175.6 tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on August 18, trading within the previous week's range. Tight supply limited the decline. The most actively traded November contract closed down 9.20 Canadian dollars at 651.70 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract closed down 9.40 Canadian dollars at 663.30 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the US soybean harvest area, reducing production and ending stocks, which is overall bullish. However, the good condition of US soybeans restrains the market price, and the market is waiting for the results of ProFarmer's inspection of Midwest crops [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 18, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes promoting the healthy and high - quality development of the private economy [8]. - China's economic data for July shows that industrial added - value and consumer spending increased year - on - year, while real estate investment declined [8]. - National housing price data in July shows that prices in most cities decreased month - on - month, and the number of cities with rising prices decreased [9]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote a reasonable rise in prices [10]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is promoting a "penetrating" supervision system [10]. - China sues Canada at the WTO over import restrictions on steel products [10]. - The upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday will have an 8 - day holiday, and tolls for small passenger cars will be waived [11]. - Hong Kong's financial secretary believes that the economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities [12]. - KPMG China believes that the central government has room to increase fiscal spending, and policies may be re - arranged in the fourth quarter [12]. - Trump has no plan to impose tariffs on Chinese products due to China's purchase of Russian oil [12]. - Trump and Putin met in Alaska, and significant progress was made in the Russia - Ukraine issue [13]. - The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and plans to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors [15]. - The US trade negotiation representative cancelled the trip to India, and the hope of reaching an agreement before the deadline was dashed [15]. - Some Fed officials are hesitant about interest rate cuts due to inflation data and tariff uncertainties [15]. - US retail sales increased in July, but consumer confidence declined in August [15][16]. - China's soybean imports are mainly from South America during the peak export season [17]. - Japan's GDP grew in the second quarter [17]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options, as well as fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp options [17]. - On the night of August 15, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with palm oil, coking coal, and other products leading the gains [18]. - The global physical gold ETF had an inflow of $3.2 billion in July, and the total asset management scale reached a record high [20]. - On August 15, international precious metal futures, crude oil futures, and some base metal futures closed lower, while agricultural product futures on the CBOT closed higher [20][21][22]. - China's foreign exchange market was stable in July, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated [22][23]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different trends, with most of them rising. It is expected that on August 18, stock index futures will show a strong and volatile trend [23][24][25]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures declined. It is expected that on August 18, they will show a weak and volatile trend [50][54]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. It is expected that on August 18, gold futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and silver futures will show a volatile and consolidating trend [56][62]. Base Metal Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 18, copper futures will show a volatile and consolidating trend, aluminum futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and alumina futures will show a strong and volatile trend [67][73][78]. Energy Futures - On August 15, the main contract of crude oil futures rose slightly. It is expected that on August 18, it will show a weak and volatile trend [118]. Agricultural Product Futures - On August 15, the main contracts of most agricultural product futures showed different trends. It is expected that on August 18, most of them will show a strong and volatile trend, while natural rubber futures will show a weak and volatile trend [129][131][142].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, domestically, high oil - mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation suppress prices, but uncertain fourth - quarter purchases support the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the peak aquaculture season boosts demand. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken forward supply, while the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations. The market remains bullish despite price drops and increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, internationally, good weather in Canada boosts production prospects, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian imports may pressure prices. The MPOB report and Indonesia's bio - diesel policy affect palm oil prices. Domestically, the off - season of fat consumption and sufficient supply restrict prices, but low oil - mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market should be participated in with a bullish view despite price drops and increased volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9840 yuan/ton (down 224 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2686 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 660.3 CAD/ton (up 9.6 CAD), and domestic rapeseed was 5044 yuan/ton (down 92 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 184 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan), and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 83 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil had 301,480 lots (up 18,815 lots), and rapeseed meal had 115,197 lots (down 63,472 lots) [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil had 15,064 lots (up 850 lots), and rapeseed meal had 14,580 lots (down 2,813 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil had 3,487 sheets, and rapeseed meal had 9,821 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,260 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,600 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan), and the oil - meal ratio was 3.79 (up 0.06) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,325 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 8,216.19 yuan/ton (up 3,559.36 yuan) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 196 yuan/ton (up 238 yuan), and rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 86 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan) [2]. - Substitute prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,840 yuan/ton, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,380 yuan/ton, and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,090 yuan/ton. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,420 yuan/ton (up 330 yuan), the rapeseed - palm oil spread was 880 yuan/ton (up 380 yuan), and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 490 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global production: Rapeseed production was forecasted at 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecast for rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Imports: Rapeseed imports were 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 15 tons (up 4 tons), and rapeseed meal imports were 27.03 tons (up 7.56 tons) [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: Rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 tons (up 5 tons), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 16.84% (up 0.32%) [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 11 tons (up 0.35 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 tons (up 0.5 tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.92 tons (down 0.58 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.25 tons (up 0.68 tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5.5 tons (down 0.2 tons), and South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21 tons (down 1.5 tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.47 tons (up 1.77 tons), and rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 2.72 tons (down 0.15 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production was 2,937.7 tons (up 175.6 tons), and edible vegetable oil production was 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - Consumption: The monthly catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan (up 1.294 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - Implied volatilities: Rapeseed meal call was 13.22% (down 14.17%), put was 27.39% (down 1.71%), rapeseed oil call was 5.11% (down 14.04%), and put was 19.15% (up 2.5%) [2]. - Historical volatilities: Rapeseed meal 20 - day was 24.96% (up 1.77%), 60 - day was 18.9% (up 0.71%), rapeseed oil 20 - day was 16.4% (up 2.5%), and 60 - day was 13.95% (up 1.06%) [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rebounded as US soybean and soybean oil futures rose. The November contract closed 9.50 CAD higher at 659.80 CAD/ton, and the January contract rose 9.70 CAD to 672.80 CAD/ton [2]. - The USDA August report showed that US 2025/26 soybean harvest area was estimated at 80.1 million acres (down from 82.5 million acres in July), yield was 53.6 bushels/acre (higher than expected), production was 4.292 billion bushels (down from July), and ending stocks were 290 million bushels (down 20 million bushels) [2]. Key Points to Watch - Monday's rapeseed operating rate and regional rapeseed oil and meal inventories from Myagric, as well as China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 13, both equity indices and CGB futures rose; oils and oilseeds led the gains, while energy and chemicals performed weakly [10][12]. - China implements the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and operating loans in the service industry [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 期货异动 3.1.1 Overview 行情概述 - On August 13, equity indices and CGB futures rose, oils and oilseeds led gains, energy and chemicals were weak. Top gainers were rapeseed oil (3.6% rise, 23.1% open interest increase m - o - m), soybean meal (2.9% rise, 10.2% open interest increase m - o - m), and No.2 soybean (2.7% rise, 0.2% open interest decrease m - o - m). Top decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (5.6% fall, 8.6% open interest increase m - o - m), silicon metal (3.4% fall, 2.0% open interest increase m - o - m), and coking coal (3.0% fall, 4.6% open interest decrease m - o - m) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise 上涨品种 3.1.2.1 Rapeseed Oil 菜籽油 & Rapeseed Meal 菜籽粕 & Rapeseed 油菜籽 - On August 13, rapeseed oil rose 3.6% to 10064 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal rose 2.3% to 2723 yuan/ton, and rapeseed rose 2.2% to 5136 yuan/ton. On August 12, China announced a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, imposing a 75.8% deposit. China's high dependence on Canadian rapeseed imports led to market concerns about supply of rapeseed meal and oil, causing price increases. Short - term market sentiment for rapeseed meal may remain strong, but mid - term substitutes may cause negative feedback, and after October it enters the off - season. Anti - dumping ruling is beneficial to domestic rapeseed oil prices, and factors like expected increase in overseas biodiesel demand for palm and soybean oil, palm oil entering production reduction season after September, and high market expectation of Fed rate cut in September may drive oils to operate strongly later [15][16][19]. 3.1.2.2 Copper 铜 - On August 13, copper rose 0.6% to 79380 yuan/ton. Supply constraints remain and inventory is low, but demand is weakening marginally and U.S. tariffs on copper are unfavorable. Copper may show a fluctuating trend. Copper ore and blister copper processing fees are low, raw material supply is tight, and new low long - term processing fees increase smelter production cut risks. Downstream replenishment willingness is weakening, copper inventory is rising, and price upward momentum is weakening [26][27][29]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop 下跌品种 3.1.3.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On August 13, SCFIS(Europe) fell 5.6% to 1333.1 points. Prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to shorting the October and December contracts on rallies. The China - U.S. economic and trade talks in Stockholm suspended the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, retaining 10%. In weeks 34 - 35, shipping companies face increasing cargo solicitation pressure, and ship transfer to the Europe route in October may exacerbate pessimistic expectations. MSK freight rate fell sharply this week, and the SCFIS index at the end of August will narrow the disk discount. August - September is the traditional price decline cycle, and full shipping schedules may bring downward pressure to break below $2000/FEU. Attention should be paid to HPL's additional ships and shipping companies' suspension plans around the National Day [31][33][34]. 3.2 China News 中国要闻 3.2.1 Macro News 宏观新闻 - On August 12, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumer Loans". The scope includes single - transaction consumption under 50,000 yuan and key - area consumption over 50,000 yuan. For consumption over 50,000 yuan, the subsidy is capped at 50,000 yuan. After the policy expires, extending the period and expanding the scope may be studied based on implementation effects [38][39]. 3.2.2 Industry News 行业新闻 - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to a nearly 4 - year high, and the two - market turnover exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, returning to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [39]. - The Korea Exchange will launch semiconductor index futures and other derivatives [39].

Core Viewpoint - The initial ruling of the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds has led to a significant increase in domestic canola meal and oil prices, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to rising import costs and strong domestic demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The futures market for oilseeds has shown a strong performance, particularly in canola meal, with the RM2509 contract experiencing a daily increase of over 6% [1]. - The initial ruling determined a dumping margin of 75.8% for Canadian canola seeds, which will increase the cost of imports starting August 14 [2]. - Canada accounts for over 90% of domestic canola seed imports and over 70% of canola meal imports, making the ruling impactful on supply [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The current peak demand for canola meal coincides with the busy season for aquaculture, creating a strong demand-supply dynamic [3]. - The supply of canola seeds is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the ongoing anti-dumping investigation, which could further support prices for canola meal and oil [2][3]. - Domestic canola meal inventory has decreased from approximately 900,000 tons to 630,000 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that canola meal prices will maintain a strong upward trend, while the price potential for canola oil may be less pronounced due to increased imports from other sources [3][4]. - The reliance on Canadian canola seeds is significant, and unless imports from Australia normalize, the price of canola meal is expected to continue rising [3][4]. - The competition from soybean meal, which remains a primary protein source, may limit the long-term price increases for canola meal [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the overall USDA August supply - demand report is bullish, but domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation suppresses the rapeseed meal market. However, factors such as low near - month rapeseed arrivals, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market. Despite the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, the market should be treated with a bullish mindset due to increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, international factors like rainfall in Canada and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed put pressure on prices, while domestic factors such as low oil mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures reduce supply pressure. The market should be mainly participated in with a bullish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10,064 yuan/ton, up 262 yuan; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2,723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) is 650.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 31.1 Canadian dollars; rapeseed (active contract) is 5,136 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 228 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 112 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 282,665 lots, up 165,186 lots; rapeseed meal is 178,669 lots, down 27,971 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 14,214 lots, down 2,606 lots; rapeseed meal is 17,393 lots, up 15,262 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 0, down 3,487; rapeseed meal is 0, down 9,821 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,660 yuan/ton; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,090 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [2]. - Import cost price of rapeseed: 4,656.83 yuan/ton, down 194.33 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 3.73, up 0.15 [2]. - Basis of main contracts: Rapeseed oil is - 42 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan; rapeseed meal is - 63 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed import volume: 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 15 million tons, up 5 million tons [2]. - Weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed: 16.84%, up 0.32 percentage points [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 455 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil: 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 11 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. - Rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi: 54.92 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 32.57 million tons, down 0.84 million tons [2]. - Weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil: 3.47 million tons, up 1.77 million tons; rapeseed meal is 2.72 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: 2,937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering: 4,707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.72 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal is 27.39%, down 1.71 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 19.15%, up 2.5 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal is 23.19%, up 2.17 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 13.9%, up 2.13 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal is 18.19%, up 0.9 percentage points; rapeseed oil is 12.89%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 12, ICE rapeseed futures tumbled 4.5% after China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, but prices rebounded from the intraday low [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed changes in US soybean forecasts for the 2025/26 season, with lower harvest area and slightly higher yield, and lower production and ending stocks [2].