证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-09投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 中美及中加关系缓和宏观层面影响市场。棕榈油P2601：9100-9500附近区间震荡 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8250，基差110，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。受阿根廷关税政策影响，豆类及油 脂供应增加，油脂油料回调整体。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴 政策扶持生柴 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2025-09-29 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10093 | -69 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2416 | 11 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | 503 | -17 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) | 93 | 15 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 331056 | -23209 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 359652 | -11448 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 29336 | -7113 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -58070 | 4493 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 8057 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 9245 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 614.5 | -4.3 期货收盘价( ...

Report Overview - The report is the Rapeseed Industry Daily on September 24, 2025 [1] 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9,921 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; Rapeseed meal (active contract) was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; ICE rapeseed (active) was 617.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 8.1 Canadian dollars; Rapeseed (active contract) was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 484 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; Rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 76 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 306,205 lots, down 21,837 lots; Rapeseed meal was 398,111 lots, down 2,822 lots [2] - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil was 17,791 lots, down 5,331 lots; Rapeseed meal was - 73,204 lots, down 32,651 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt numbers: Rapeseed oil was 8,057 pieces, down 125 pieces; Rapeseed meal was 9,245 pieces, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,970 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; Rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,035 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Imported rapeseed cost price was 7,704.6 yuan/ton, up 65.5 yuan [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio was 3.96, up 0.06; Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 49 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; Rapeseed meal main contract basis was 55 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1,620 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; Rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 950 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; Soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 450 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 89.58 million tons (monthly, in millions of tons), up 0.04 million tons; Annual rapeseed production forecast was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed imports: Total monthly import volume was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 947 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: Total weekly inventory was 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of related products: Monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; Monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Inventory in coastal areas: Rapeseed oil was 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - Inventory in different regions: In East China, rapeseed oil was 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons; In Guangxi, rapeseed oil was 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; In South China, rapeseed meal was 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly提货量: Rapeseed oil was 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; Rapeseed meal was 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: Monthly feed production was 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; Monthly edible vegetable oil production was 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] - Consumption: Monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4,495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal call option was 18.89%, up 0.09%; Rapeseed meal put option was 18.88%, up 0.07%; Rapeseed oil call option was 14.24%, up 0.09%; Rapeseed oil put option was 14.24%, up 0.11% [2] - Historical volatility: 20 - day rapeseed meal was 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day rapeseed meal was 24.01%, up 0.41%; 20 - day rapeseed oil was 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day rapeseed oil was 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 2. Industry News - On Tuesday, ICE rapeseed futures rose, ending the recent continuous decline. The November contract closed up 7.20 Canadian dollars at 617.60 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract rose 7.80 Canadian dollars to 631.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - U.S. soybeans entered the harvest season, and the expected high yield continued to restrain the U.S. soybean market price. The call between Chinese and U.S. leaders failed to break the deadlock in Sino - U.S. soybean trade, and the export demand of U.S. soybeans remained highly uncertain. Argentina announced the cancellation of agricultural product export tariffs, which may further intensify international market competition [2] 3. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - International factors: Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest season, and the high - yield is gradually realized. The Canadian Statistics Bureau estimates the rapeseed crop output at 2 million tons, the highest level since 2018, which puts pressure on the price of Canadian rapeseed. The U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, market sentiment has weakened, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export taxes has dragged down the collective decline of the oil and fat market [2] - Domestic factors: The arrival of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, reducing the supply pressure. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken the long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation of rapeseed meal. Frequent trade policy news makes the market trading cautious. In the face of Argentina's tax - free impact, rapeseed meal follows soybean meal to weaken, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 4. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - International factors: The U.S. biodiesel policy is unclear, market sentiment has weakened, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export taxes has dragged down the collective decline of the oil and fat market [2] - Domestic factors: This year's festival stockpiling is lower than in previous years, and the overall consumption support is limited. The supply and demand of domestic vegetable oil are still relatively loose, which continues to restrain the short - term market price. However, for rapeseed oil itself, the operating rate of oil mills remains low, the output pressure of rapeseed oil is small. The purchase of rapeseed in the near - term is relatively small, and the supply - side pressure is low. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, which still restricts purchases. It is expected that the rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter will continue to be tight. Before the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation makes substantial progress, rapeseed oil will generally be supported [2] 5. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate reported by Myagric on Monday and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Sino - U.S. trade relations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. As it enters the production - increasing season, the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8358, with a basis of 74, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the production - increasing season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9366, with a basis of 62, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have turned to short positions [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the production - increasing season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10106, with a basis of 122, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Lido**: Palm oil tremor season (the specific meaning is not clear from the text) [5] - **Lido**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats, with a major risk point being the El Niño weather [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as the production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,508, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the future [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,516, with a basis of 34, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have changed to short positions [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,250 - 9,650 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the future [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,166, with a basis of 113, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多 Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空 Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA report for 2025/26 shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre is slightly lower than last month but higher than analysts' expectations, with increased production and ending stocks, which is generally bearish. In the Canadian market, the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase, while exports are expected to decline. For domestic rapeseed meal, the short - term supply pressure is reduced due to less near - month arrivals, and the demand is seasonally increasing, but the substitution of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile. For domestic rapeseed oil, the overall supply and demand is loose, but the low oil mill operating rate and limited near - month purchases ease the supply pressure, and the market trend is relatively strong [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 10,053 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2,518 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 632.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5,330 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 467 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 121 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Open interest: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract is 333,040 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract is 376,582 lots, down 17,074 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long positions of rapeseed oil are 26,789 lots, up 8,398 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal are - 14,068 lots, up 15,904 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 8,202, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 10,214, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,940 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,400 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Average price and import cost: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,005 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,899.85 yuan/ton, down 50.05 yuan [2] - Basis and price spreads: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 40 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 102 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 10 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, down 0.27 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 763 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 8.65 tons, down 1.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, down 0.05 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 52.12 tons, down 1.08 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 30 tons, down 1.51 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.1 tons, down 0.45 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20 tons, down 1.3 tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.03 tons, up 0.77 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.74 tons, down 0.15 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2,827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4,504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.96%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.2%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 7.91%, up 0.42 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.74%, down 0.48 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower on Monday. The benchmark contract fell 1.16% due to the rapid progress of rapeseed harvesting in the prairie region and weak rapeseed exports. The decline in the external vegetable oil market also exerted downward pressure [2] - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels, with increased production and ending stocks. The report is generally bearish [2] - The USDA report also shows that the Canadian rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 750,000 tons to 20 million tons, exports are expected to decrease by 900,000 tons to 6.7 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to increase by 500,000 tons to 12 million tons, and ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.34 million tons to 2.954 million tons [2] 3.8 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Bullish factors: Near - month rapeseed arrivals are scarce, reducing supply pressure. The aquaculture season boosts the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. The implementation of temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply [2] - Bearish factors: The good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Minister of Agriculture is considering measures to avoid Chinese tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed is being realized [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Bullish factors: The low operating rate of oil mills eases the production pressure of rapeseed oil. Near - month rapeseed purchases are limited, reducing supply pressure. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, restricting purchases [2] - Bearish factors: The boost from the start of the school term to terminal consumption is limited, and the domestic vegetable oil supply and demand is still loose [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed oil market has a relatively strong trend, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-09-16投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 每日观点 棕榈油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：棕榈油现货9400，基差22，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日棕榈油港口库存58万吨，前值57万吨，环比+1万吨，同比-34.1%。偏多 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：棕榈油主力多翻空。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内 ...

目前菜油库存仍处于高位，市场成交表现清淡，中加会晤后尚未有新进展公布，但中澳菜籽进口有望顺 利开展，多空因素交织下基本面趋势不够明朗。近期期价多随竞品油脂波动为主。9月6日至9日加拿大 官员率经贸代表团访华，需密切关注中加谈判进展及美国生柴政策的后续动向。 9月11日盘中，菜籽油期货主力合约震荡走高，最高上探至9897.00元。截止收盘，菜籽油主力合约报 9893.00元，涨幅0.71%。 菜籽油期货主力涨近1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 中辉期货 菜油期价多随竞品油脂波动为主 瑞达期货（002961） 菜油近期维持窄幅震荡，关注中加贸易谈判走向 中辉期货：菜油期价多随竞品油脂波动为主 瑞达期货：菜油近期维持窄幅震荡，关注中加贸易谈判走向 加菜籽进入收割期，丰产逐步兑现，且中国对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽实施临时反倾销措施，或影响 其出口，对加菜籽价格带来一定压力。不过，加拿大农业部长表示，加方正考虑放宽对中国电动汽车的 关税措施，以期避免中方对加拿大油菜籽加征进口关税。其它方面，美国参议员试图阻止特朗普政府调 整可再生燃料义务政策，特别是限制将小型炼油厂的豁免额度转移给大型炼油厂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Nino weather [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. It is rated as neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,428, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. It is rated as bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract has increased. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,550 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil is expected to increase in the future. It is rated as neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 10, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The long position of the main palm oil contract has turned to short. It is rated as bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,150 - 9,550 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil is expected to increase in the future. It is rated as neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,858, with a basis of 119, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is rated as bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract has increased. It is rated as bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the supply - side pressure persists due to the expected high yield of US soybeans, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. In China, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals eases supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts rapeseed meal consumption. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The implementation of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada and China - US trade negotiations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, concerns about palm oil production and transportation in Indonesia and strong export data of Malaysian palm oil support the palm oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain the price. The low - level operation of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease the supply - side pressure. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also weaken the long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market has been fluctuating narrowly recently, and the focus is on trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil active contract is 9766 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2500 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 4711 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2]. - Monthly spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 169 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 106 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 258,258 lots, down 5291 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 398,350 lots, down 5972 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 1373 lots, down 4424 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 27480 lots, down 5159 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: There are 4487 warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil, up 600; and 6041 for rapeseed meal, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9895 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7868.13 yuan/ton, up 9.98 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.71, down 0.02; the basis of rapeseed oil main contract is 64 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 100 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 million tons; and the import volume of rapeseed meal is - 0.1 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.4 million tons, up 4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.5 million tons, up 0.4 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 55.4 million tons, up 1.8 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 32.86 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 4.85 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 20 million tons, down 1.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.26 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.89 million tons, up 0.1 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal is 19.53%, down 0.11% and 0.12% respectively; that for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 1.29% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.23%, up 0.09%; the 60 - day is 21.87%, up 0.04%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.93%, up 0.49%; the 60 - day is 14.5%, up 0.13% [2].