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短期缺乏驱动,油脂走势或分化
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 12:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July and the positive impact of overseas biodiesel policies, domestic oils and fats are expected to show a differentiated short - term trend. Soybean oil is expected to be strong, while rapeseed oil and palm oil may fluctuate repeatedly [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Soybean oil**: Weather forecasts indicate less rainfall in the eastern corn belt and northern Great Plains in the next two weeks, which may affect soybean growth. The US biodiesel policy is long - term positive for US soybean oil demand, Brazil has raised the biodiesel blending ratio as expected, and the implementation of Indonesia's B40 is going well, all of which are positive for domestic oils and fats [6]. - **Palm oil**: MPOA data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%. Reuters survey predicts that the inventory in July will be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June; production is expected to be 1.83 million tons, an increase of 8% from June; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, an increase of 3.2% from June. High - frequency data shows increased production and decreased exports in July, and the market expects a high probability of inventory build - up. Attention should be paid to the July MPOB report [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Recently, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased slightly but remains at a historically high level. The trade relationship between China and Australia has improved, and China may import rapeseed from Australia later, which requires attention [6]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the support level for palm oil 01 be around 8,500, and for soybean oil 01 around 8,000. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Outlook**: Key points to watch include biodiesel policies of various countries, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and the price of crude oil. Overall, oils and fats may show a differentiated short - term trend [8]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Market - Last week, oils and fats fluctuated strongly, mainly due to domestic enterprises exporting soybean oil to India [17]. - The soybean - palm oil spread fluctuated widely and is currently at a historical low; the rapeseed - palm oil spread fluctuated weakly; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread fluctuated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for all [20]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: According to the June MPOB report, Malaysia's crude palm oil production in June was 1.6923 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.48%; palm oil imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.51%; palm oil exports were 1.2594 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.52%; and the ending inventory was 2.0306 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41%. The report is neutral to bearish [33]. - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: As of August 1, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.1174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,300 tons, or 2.69%. Year - on - year, it decreased by 8,600 tons, or 0.76% [65]. - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: As of August 1, 2025, the rapeseed inventory in major coastal oil mills was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 106,500 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from last week; and the unexecuted contracts were 96,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week [68]. - **Domestic palm oil**: As of August 1, 2025 (week 31), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, or 5.41%. Year - on - year, it increased by 3,400 tons, or 0.59% [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - No specific demand - side analysis content other than showing the volume charts of various oils and fats is provided 3.6 Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.1174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.76%. The national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.41% and a year - on - year increase of 0.59% [65]. - As of August 1, 2025, coastal major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons (down 21,000 tons from last week), rapeseed oil inventory was 106,500 tons (up 11,000 tons from last week), and unexecuted contracts were 96,000 tons (down 6,000 tons from last week) [68]. 3.7 Disk Import Profit - As of August 8, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the August shipment was - 204 yuan/ton [73].
产地月报公布,油脂走势继续分化-20250714
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 09:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the trends of oils and fats diverged. The centers of soybean and palm oils moved up, while rapeseed oil declined. The USDA July report reflected the impact on US biodiesel and foreign tariffs. The consumption of US biodiesel from soybean oil was increased, soybean crushing was up, exports were down, and inventory was up. The new crop growth was good, and CBOT soybeans were under pressure. In June, Malaysian palm oil production decreased as expected, but the unexpected drop in exports led to a slight inventory build - up. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil production resumed growth in early July, and BMD crude palm oil fluctuated. Operationally, the market traded on the decline in June Malaysian palm oil production last week, and both domestic and foreign palm oils continued their strong trend. However, the increase in July production limited its short - term upside. Seek long - term long opportunities on dips [7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Table of Contents 1. Main Views - Last week, the trends of oils and fats diverged. In the producing areas, the MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production and exports in June decreased by 4.48% and 10.52% respectively, and inventory increased by 2.41%. In early July, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 35% and exports increased by 5 - 12%. The USDA report adjusted the 25/26 US soybean exports, crushing, and inventory. In China, the weekly trading volume of soybean and palm oils was average. New palm oil purchase contracts were added, and soybean oil inventory reached 102 tons while palm oil inventory stopped increasing. The strategy is to seek long - term long opportunities on dips as the short - term upside of palm oil is limited by the increase in July production [7]. 2. Market Review - Last week, US soybeans tested the 1000 mark, the centers of domestic and foreign palm oils moved up, Dalian soybean oil stopped falling and rebounded, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil's center of gravity moved down [9]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA July Report**: The 25/26 US soybean exports were estimated to be down 70 million bushels, crushing up 50 million bushels, and ending inventory up 15 million bushels. The 25/26 US soybean oil biofuel consumption was 15.5 billion pounds [12][13]. - **US Soybean Good - to - Excellent Rate**: As of the week ending July 6, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as the previous week [16]. - **Brazilian Soybean Premium**: Last week, the Brazilian soybean premium rose to a maximum of 155 cents per bushel, hitting an 8 - month high [17]. - **June Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: In June, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.69 million tons (down 4.48% month - on - month), exports were 1.26 million tons (down 10.52% month - on - month), and inventory was 2.03 million tons (up 2.41% month - on - month). In early July, production increased by 35% and exports changed from - 28% to 12% [12][20]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Policy**: Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. The US threat of a 32% tariff may reduce Indonesian palm oil exports to the US by 15 - 20% [25]. - **Indian Palm Oil Import**: It was estimated that India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% to 953,000 tons, reaching an 11 - month high [28]. - **Domestic Oilseed Crushing Profit**: The price of by - product protein meal rebounded. The spot and futures crushing profits of imported rapeseed reached 200 - 300. The import profit of palm oil was in a slight deficit [31]. - **Oil Mill Operating Rate and Inventory**: In July, the oil mill crushing operating rate declined, and soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed crushing operating rate stopped falling, and rapeseed inventory decreased. As of early July, soybean oil inventory reached 1.02 million tons, rapeseed oil inventory was 760,000 tons, and palm oil inventory was 520,000 tons [34][39][42]. - **Spot Price and Trading Volume of Oils and Fats**: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats diverged. As of July 11, the price of soybean oil rose slightly, palm oil rose, and rapeseed oil fell. The overall trading volume of oils and fats was average [46][49]. 4. Spread Tracking - No specific content provided other than the section title [56]