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银河期货油脂日报-20251201
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 11:24
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on agricultural products (oils) dated December 1, 2025, released by the research institute of Galaxy Futures [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 3: Core Views - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Group 4: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8288 with a gain of 44. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8558, 8588, and 8458 respectively. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 300, 270, and 170 respectively [2] - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8652 with a gain of 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8602, 8732, and 8762 respectively. Basis values in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 50, 80, and 110 respectively [2] - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9770 with a gain of 13. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10070, 10320. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 300, and 550 respectively [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 202 with a decline of 2. For palm oil, it was - 46 with a gain of 6. For rapeseed oil, it was 286 with a gain of 30 [2] Cross - Variety Spreads - For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 364 with a gain of 18, the OI - Y spread was 1482 with a decline of 31, the OI - P spread was 1118 with a decline of 13, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a gain of 0.02 [2] Import Profits - The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 225, and the CNF price was 1048. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1074, and the FOB price was 1095 [2] Weekly Commercial Inventories - In the 47th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 118.0 tons (last week: 114.9 tons, last year: 105.3 tons), palm oil was 66.7 tons (last week: 65.3 tons, last year: 48.3 tons), and rapeseed oil was 38.5 tons (last week: 43.0 tons, last year: 44.1 tons) [2] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - According to foreign media reports, the devastating floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not had a significant impact on palm oil production. The affected areas are mostly residential areas rather than palm oil plantations [4] Domestic Market - Palm oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 66.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 tons (2.13%). It is at a neutral level compared to historical periods. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has widened to about - 300. The basis is stable. Short - term palm oil lacks a clear driver, with limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Soybean oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 117.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons (2.73%). It is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory inflection point has been reached. The basis is stable. There are rumors of 1 - 3 tons of soybean oil exports. Domestic demand is average. Short - term supply is sufficient, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see and then try to go long lightly after a callback [7] - Rapeseed oil: As of November 21, 2025, the coastal inventory was 38.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 tons. It is at a high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has widened to about - 1000. The domestic basis is strong. It is expected that the coastal inventory will continue to decrease. It is recommended to go long on OI03 or 05 contracts when there is a callback [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Options - It is recommended to wait and see [12]
油脂油料早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 01:10
Group 1: Overnight Market Information - Analysts expect US soybean export sales to net increase by 45 - 160 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season as of the week ending November 6, 2025 [1] - US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 5 - 40 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0 - 2.5 million tons for the 2025 - 26 season and 0 tons for the 2026 - 27 season [1] - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from November 1 - 10, 2025, decreased by 49.53% compared to the same period last month, with exports of 190,533 tons [1] Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices for various products including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu are provided from November 6 - 12, 2025 [2]
银河期货油脂日报-20251106
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 14:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil market is that after a significant decline, it has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short - term, each oil variety lacks a clear driving force, and the upward space is limited [6][8][9]. - For palm oil, one can consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's B50 policy and the October Malaysian palm oil production [6]. - For soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [8]. - For rapeseed oil, continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - Soybean oil's 2601 closing price is 8188, up 50. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8438, 8488, and 8358 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is 300, 250, and 170 respectively [3]. - Palm oil's 2601 closing price is 8732, up 142. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8632, 8732, and 8832 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is - 100, 0, and 100 respectively [3]. - Rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price is 9564, up 157. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9914 and 10064 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi is 350 and 500 respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 182, down 6; for palm oil, it is - 66, up 40; for rapeseed oil, it is 391, up 46 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - The Y - P 01 contract spread is - 544, up 107; the OI - Y spread is 1376, up 92; the OI - P spread is 832, up 15; the oil - meal ratio is 2.67, up 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 224, with a CNF price of 1045 for the December shipment. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1331, with a FOB price of 1085 for the December shipment [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (in 10,000 tons)**: - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 121.6 (last year's same - period 110.1, last week 125.0), palm oil inventory is 53.9, and rapeseed oil inventory is 51.4 (last year's same - period 41.8, last week 53.5) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Palm companies have increased the discount on soybean oil, attracting buyers from India and Pakistan. India bought about 140,000 tons of palm oil this week, and Pakistan's purchases remained stable. However, factors such as higher - than - expected production prospects of growers, a decline in Malaysia's exports in early November, and a stronger ringgit may limit price increases [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: The price has stabilized and rebounded, and the YP spread has widened, making palm oil more cost - effective. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 59.28 tons, a decrease of 1.43 tons from last week, a decline of 2.36%. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 300. There are rumors of 3 near - month purchase ships today. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price oscillated slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2253400 tons, with an operating rate of 61.99%. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1215800 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from last week, a decline of 2.76%. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [7][8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price oscillated higher, up more than 1%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 6000 tons, with an operating rate of 1.6%. As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 514000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 1100. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see for palm oil [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as the monthly spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][17].
银河期货油脂日报-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 09:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, selling put - type strategies on dips can be considered [11]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2601 contract were 8150, 9234, and 10093 respectively, with changes of (12), (2), and (69). The spot basis of different varieties in various regions also showed different trends. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 330 with no change, and in Tianjin it was 170 with a decrease of 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 238, 174, and 503 respectively, with changes of 2, (10), and (17) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were (1084), 1943, and 859 respectively, with changes of (10), (57), and (67). The oil - meal ratio was 2.78 with a change of (0.0003) [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the October shipment had a CNF price of 1096 and a negative profit of (119); the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the November shipment was 1069 and a negative profit of (433) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 38th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 123.6, 58.5, and 58.6 million tons respectively, compared with 125.1, 64.2, and 61.0 million tons last week and 115.6, 50.6, and 40.5 million tons in the same period last year [3]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the next few months, reaching around 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports to meet holiday demand [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons or 5.62% from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 150. The basis is stable. The short - term market lacks a clear driver but has strong bottom support, and it is recommended to consider light - position buying on significant dips [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 226.72 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.28%. As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 124.87 million tons, an increase of 1.28 million tons or 1.04% from last week. The short - term domestic supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. Considering the uncertainty of U.S. soybean imports, it is recommended to consider buying on significant dips [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 2 million tons, with an operating rate of 5.33%. As of September 26, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons or 2.2%. The European rapeseed oil FOB price has increased, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 450. The market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and the basis is stable with an increase. The coastal de - stocking trend is expected to continue. Considering the uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect the oil and fat futures market to fluctuate, and consider buying on dips [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Consider selling put - type strategies on dips [11]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the historical trends of spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, including data from 2016 - 2025 [14][17].
银河期货油脂日报-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 13:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. It is advisable to consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices. For options, a strategy of selling put options during price pull - backs can be considered, while for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366, up 38; palm oil 2601 was 9360, up 44; and rapeseed oil 2601 was 10143, up 75. The basis of each variety in different regions showed different changes [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 288, up 12; palm oil was 206, up 4; and rapeseed oil was 505, up 5 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (994), down 6; the OI - Y spread was 1777, up 37; the OI - P spread was 783, up 31; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.76, down 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was (67), and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (470) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 37th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 125.1 million tons (unchanged from last week), palm oil was 64.2 million tons (up from last week), and rapeseed oil was 61.4 million tons (down from last week) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from last week, a decline of 8.79%. China's palm oil imports in August were 34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. After a rapid rise, palm oil has corrected. One can consider buying in batches at low prices during the correction [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from last week, a decline of 1.22%. China's soybean oil imports in August were 10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%. Currently, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. One can consider buying in batches at low prices [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, and the operating rate was 12.79%. As of September 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons from last week, a decline of 3.3%. China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports in August were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, and the inventory is gradually decreasing, which supports the price [8][10]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. One can consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices [12]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13]. - **Options Strategy**: Consider selling put options during price pull - backs [14]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different varieties [17][20].