研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 11 月 6 日 油脂日报 国内市场（P/Y/OI）：油脂短期有所企稳迎来技术性反弹，YP 价差大幅走扩使得棕榈 油性价比逐渐显现，今日棕榈油期价震荡收涨，涨超 1%。截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日（第 44 周），全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存 59.28 万吨，环比上周减少 1.43 万吨，减幅 2.36%；近 期棕榈油小幅去库，处于历史同期中性水平。产地报价偏稳运行，进口利润倒挂有所收窄， 目前约在-300 附近，传今日存在 3 船近月买船。基差偏稳运行，关注后期国内买船及到港情 况。油脂经历大幅下跌后，目前有所企稳并迎来技术性反弹，不过短期棕榈油仍缺乏明显驱 动，预计上涨幅度较为有限，可考虑逢低短多，或继续观望。后期关注印尼 B50 政策进展以 及 10 月马棕产量情况。 今日豆油期价震荡小幅收涨。上周油厂大豆实际压榨量 225.34 万吨，开机率为 61.99%， 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号： F03119783 投资咨询证号： 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/6 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, selling put - type strategies on dips can be considered [11]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2601 contract were 8150, 9234, and 10093 respectively, with changes of (12), (2), and (69). The spot basis of different varieties in various regions also showed different trends. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 330 with no change, and in Tianjin it was 170 with a decrease of 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 238, 174, and 503 respectively, with changes of 2, (10), and (17) [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 01 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were (1084), 1943, and 859 respectively, with changes of (10), (57), and (67). The oil - meal ratio was 2.78 with a change of (0.0003) [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the October shipment had a CNF price of 1096 and a negative profit of (119); the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the November shipment was 1069 and a negative profit of (433) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 38th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 123.6, 58.5, and 58.6 million tons respectively, compared with 125.1, 64.2, and 61.0 million tons last week and 115.6, 50.6, and 40.5 million tons in the same period last year [3]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the next few months, reaching around 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports to meet holiday demand [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons or 5.62% from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 150. The basis is stable. The short - term market lacks a clear driver but has strong bottom support, and it is recommended to consider light - position buying on significant dips [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 226.72 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.28%. As of September 26, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 124.87 million tons, an increase of 1.28 million tons or 1.04% from last week. The short - term domestic supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. Considering the uncertainty of U.S. soybean imports, it is recommended to consider buying on significant dips [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 2 million tons, with an operating rate of 5.33%. As of September 26, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 58.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons or 2.2%. The European rapeseed oil FOB price has increased, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 450. The market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and the basis is stable with an increase. The coastal de - stocking trend is expected to continue. Considering the uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [9]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect the oil and fat futures market to fluctuate, and consider buying on dips [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Consider selling put - type strategies on dips [11]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the historical trends of spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, including data from 2016 - 2025 [14][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. It is advisable to consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices. For options, a strategy of selling put options during price pull - backs can be considered, while for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366, up 38; palm oil 2601 was 9360, up 44; and rapeseed oil 2601 was 10143, up 75. The basis of each variety in different regions showed different changes [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 288, up 12; palm oil was 206, up 4; and rapeseed oil was 505, up 5 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (994), down 6; the OI - Y spread was 1777, up 37; the OI - P spread was 783, up 31; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.76, down 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was (67), and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (470) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 37th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 125.1 million tons (unchanged from last week), palm oil was 64.2 million tons (up from last week), and rapeseed oil was 61.4 million tons (down from last week) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from last week, a decline of 8.79%. China's palm oil imports in August were 34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. After a rapid rise, palm oil has corrected. One can consider buying in batches at low prices during the correction [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from last week, a decline of 1.22%. China's soybean oil imports in August were 10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%. Currently, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. One can consider buying in batches at low prices [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, and the operating rate was 12.79%. As of September 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons from last week, a decline of 3.3%. China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports in August were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, and the inventory is gradually decreasing, which supports the price [8][10]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. One can consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices [12]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13]. - **Options Strategy**: Consider selling put options during price pull - backs [14]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different varieties [17][20].