油脂进口利润

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银河期货油脂日报-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 13:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. It is advisable to consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices. For options, a strategy of selling put options during price pull - backs can be considered, while for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366, up 38; palm oil 2601 was 9360, up 44; and rapeseed oil 2601 was 10143, up 75. The basis of each variety in different regions showed different changes [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil was 288, up 12; palm oil was 206, up 4; and rapeseed oil was 505, up 5 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (994), down 6; the OI - Y spread was 1777, up 37; the OI - P spread was 783, up 31; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.76, down 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was (67), and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (470) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 37th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 125.1 million tons (unchanged from last week), palm oil was 64.2 million tons (up from last week), and rapeseed oil was 61.4 million tons (down from last week) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from last week, a decline of 8.79%. China's palm oil imports in August were 34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. After a rapid rise, palm oil has corrected. One can consider buying in batches at low prices during the correction [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2359 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from last week, a decline of 1.22%. China's soybean oil imports in August were 10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%. Currently, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and the price increase is weak. One can consider buying in batches at low prices [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, and the operating rate was 12.79%. As of September 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons from last week, a decline of 3.3%. China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports in August were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, and the inventory is gradually decreasing, which supports the price [8][10]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term, the oil and fat market is in a bottom - grinding phase. One can consider seizing opportunities to buy in batches at low prices [12]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13]. - **Options Strategy**: Consider selling put options during price pull - backs [14]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different varieties [17][20].