Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil market is that after a significant decline, it has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short - term, each oil variety lacks a clear driving force, and the upward space is limited [6][8][9]. - For palm oil, one can consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's B50 policy and the October Malaysian palm oil production [6]. - For soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [8]. - For rapeseed oil, continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - Soybean oil's 2601 closing price is 8188, up 50. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8438, 8488, and 8358 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is 300, 250, and 170 respectively [3]. - Palm oil's 2601 closing price is 8732, up 142. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8632, 8732, and 8832 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is - 100, 0, and 100 respectively [3]. - Rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price is 9564, up 157. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9914 and 10064 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi is 350 and 500 respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 182, down 6; for palm oil, it is - 66, up 40; for rapeseed oil, it is 391, up 46 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - The Y - P 01 contract spread is - 544, up 107; the OI - Y spread is 1376, up 92; the OI - P spread is 832, up 15; the oil - meal ratio is 2.67, up 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 224, with a CNF price of 1045 for the December shipment. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1331, with a FOB price of 1085 for the December shipment [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (in 10,000 tons)**: - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 121.6 (last year's same - period 110.1, last week 125.0), palm oil inventory is 53.9, and rapeseed oil inventory is 51.4 (last year's same - period 41.8, last week 53.5) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Palm companies have increased the discount on soybean oil, attracting buyers from India and Pakistan. India bought about 140,000 tons of palm oil this week, and Pakistan's purchases remained stable. However, factors such as higher - than - expected production prospects of growers, a decline in Malaysia's exports in early November, and a stronger ringgit may limit price increases [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: The price has stabilized and rebounded, and the YP spread has widened, making palm oil more cost - effective. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 59.28 tons, a decrease of 1.43 tons from last week, a decline of 2.36%. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 300. There are rumors of 3 near - month purchase ships today. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price oscillated slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2253400 tons, with an operating rate of 61.99%. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1215800 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from last week, a decline of 2.76%. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [7][8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price oscillated higher, up more than 1%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 6000 tons, with an operating rate of 1.6%. As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 514000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 1100. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see for palm oil [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as the monthly spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market lacks drivers, and the market is in a stage of oscillating at the bottom. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices. The overall market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [6][74]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the oil and fat market did not rise after the holiday but showed an oscillating downward trend. Palm oil and rapeseed oil had relatively large declines, while soybean oil was more resistant to decline. In the first and middle of October, affected by factors such as negative MPOB reports and the expectation of eased China - Canada relations, there was a lack of positive drivers. In the second half of October, more negative factors emerged, leading to a rapid decline [4][10]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in October, it will gradually start to reduce slightly, but the inventory will still be at a relatively high level. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil remains low, but its fundamentals have weakened marginally. Currently, soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction and mainly follows the overall trend of the oil and fat market, with limited upward momentum but more resistance to decline. In the short term, due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range before there is substantial progress in rapeseed imports from Canada and Australia [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short - term, the oil and fat market lacks drivers, and the market is in a stage of oscillating at the bottom. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices. - Arbitrage: P15 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface summary, in October, the oil and fat market showed an oscillating downward trend, with palm oil and rapeseed oil having larger declines and soybean oil being more resistant to decline. Negative factors in the first and middle of October and more negative factors in the second half of the month led to the decline [10]. 3.2.2 High Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory and Higher - than - Expected Indonesian Production - Malaysian palm oil: In September, the ending inventory unexpectedly increased to 2.36 million tons, a 7% month - on - month increase. Production decreased slightly by 1% to 1.84 million tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Exports increased to 1.43 million tons as expected, still lower than the five - year average, and apparent consumption decreased to 330,000 tons, a 33% decline. It is estimated that in October, production may slightly increase to 1.87 million tons, and inventory may increase to around 2.45 million tons. The CPO spot price is oscillating weakly, and the export reference price for November has been lowered. After October, it will enter the traditional production - reduction season [13][14]. - Indonesian palm oil: In August, production decreased slightly by 1% to 5.55 million tons, a record high in the same period. Exports decreased but were still at a high level in the same period, and inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons, still at a low level in the same period. The estimated production for this year has been raised to 56 - 57 million tons. The fruit bunch price has declined, the CPO tender price has stabilized and declined, and exports in September decreased significantly. The domestic biodiesel consumption from January to September increased by nearly 10% year - on - year, and the B50 policy is planned to be implemented in the middle of next year, but there are some implementation difficulties [28][29]. 3.2.3 End of Holiday Stocking and Slower Indian Procurement - Import: As of September, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year totaled 13.98 million tons, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Palm oil imports decreased by about 14%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 4.39 million tons, a 42% increase, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 20% on a high base but were still at a relatively high level in the same period. - Inventory: In September, India's port inventory continued to increase to 1.03 million tons, with palm oil inventory remaining stable, sunflower oil inventory decreasing, and soybean oil inventory increasing significantly. All three major oils' inventories were higher than the five - year average. - Price: The domestic edible oil price increase in India has slowed down but is still at a high level in the same period. Sunflower oil prices are rising, rapeseed oil prices are falling rapidly, and soybean and palm oil prices are stable at high levels. It is estimated that India will import more than 700,000 tons of palm oil in October, at a relatively low level in the same period, and soybean oil imports will remain at a relatively high level. It is expected that in the 25/26 fiscal year, India's edible oil imports will continue to increase to more than 17 million tons, with a significant increase in palm oil imports and relatively stable soybean oil imports [36][37]. 3.2.4 Weak Domestic Demand and High Oil and Fat Inventory - Palm oil: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 607,100 tons, a 5.45% increase from the previous week. Imports from January to September were at a relatively low level in the same period, and the import profit was in a state of inversion. It is estimated that the inventory will continue to increase. Consumption from January to September was also at a relatively low level in the same period, the basis was oscillating weakly, and the soybean - palm oil spot price difference is expected to continue to repair. The palm oil market is expected to be range - bound, currently in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage [43]. - Soybean crushing: In September, soybean imports reached a record high of 12.87 million tons, a 5% month - on - month increase, and soybean crushing was also at a high level. It is expected that imports in October and November will decrease to about 9 million tons. As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 2.15% from the previous week. The market expects that the inventory will gradually decrease slightly later, but the supply is expected to be relatively loose [44]. - Rapeseed crushing: In September, domestic rapeseed crushing was at a relatively low level in the same period, and the rapeseed inventory was almost exhausted. As of October 24, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level in the same period but was decreasing. The basis of rapeseed oil has risen rapidly. Due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited imports, the rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range [47]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in October, it will gradually start to reduce slightly, but the inventory will still be at a relatively high level. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil is expected to remain low, but its fundamentals have weakened marginally. The domestic palm oil inventory will continue to increase, and the supply will be relatively loose. Soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction and mainly follows the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range. The overall oil and fat market is expected to be range - bound, currently in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices and conducting range - bound operations [74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain, causing the prices of edible oils to fluctuate and weaken [1] - The prices of the three major edible oils fluctuated and declined yesterday. The MPOA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month. The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan due to opposition from the mining association suppressed palm oil prices [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,842.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 116 yuan or - 1.29% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,132.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 50.00 yuan or - 0.61%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,525.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 205.00 yuan or - 2.11% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,690.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 170.00 yuan or - 1.92%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 152.00, a change of - 54.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,280.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 80.00 yuan/ton or - 0.96%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 148.00, a change of - 30.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 170.00 yuan or - 1.69%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 375.00, a change of + 35.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information Argentina's Soybean Sales - As of the week ending October 22, Argentine farmers sold 1.115 million tons of 2024/25 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 22.3379 million tons. Local oil mills purchased 665,700 tons, and the export industry purchased 449,300 tons. They also sold 38,100 tons of 2025/26 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 214,500 tons. Local oil mills purchased 34,500 tons, and the export industry purchased 3,600 tons. The total soybean sales for the week were 1.1927 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 63.1325 million tons. As of October 22, the cumulative export sales registration of 2024/25 - season soybeans was 4.818 million tons, and that of 2025/26 - season soybeans was 0 tons [2] China's Soybean Purchase from the US - On October 29, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said that China made its first purchase of soybeans from the US this harvest season, after zero imports from the US in September. The spokesman referred specific questions to the relevant Chinese authorities [2] International Commodity Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was $516/ton, up $7/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was $527/ton, up $7/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was $1,163/ton, up $7/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was $1,159/ton, up $9/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was $1,140/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was $1,120/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was $489/ton, up $3/ton; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (December shipment) was $480/ton, up $5/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was $489/ton, up $1/ton. The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (December shipment) was 240 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import soybean premium for the US West Coast (December shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (December shipment) was 240 cents/bushel, down 6 cents/bushel [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to fluctuate widely and continue the oscillating trend next week [34]. - Medium - to long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and its center of gravity is expected to move up in the medium - to long - term [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Futures and Spot Prices - From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined, with weekly declines of 1.38%, 1.99%, and 0.55% respectively. The spot prices also decreased, with weekly declines of 1.28%, 1.12%, and 0.59% respectively [4]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of October 17, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 196 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week), 286 yuan/ton (an increase of 79 yuan/ton), and 74 yuan/ton (an increase of 8 yuan/ton) respectively. The YP spread was - 1052 yuan/ton (an increase of 84 yuan/ton from the previous week) [10]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of October 10, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 60,000 tons (a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 547,600 tons, the national soybean oil mill inventory was 1,265,100 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils was 1,872,700 tons [13]. Supply - side Analysis - **Palm oil**: MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, and Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory in July 2025 increased by 1.5% to 2.568 million tons [19]. - **Soybean oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons, the major oil mill soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, and the oil mill operating rate was 57%. As of October 16, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 608.30 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. - **Rapeseed oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons, the same as the previous week. As of October 17, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2066.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.20 yuan/ton from the previous week) [25]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 6,200 tons, and the POGO spread was 478.99 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 14.25 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 8.05 million tons [31]. Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance in the market; Canada's foreign minister will visit China this week, and Sino - Canadian relations may ease [32]. - **Foreign factors**: As of October 12, the US soybean harvest progress reached 58%, higher than 39% a week ago. The expected soybean good - to - excellent rate remained at 61%, the same as a week ago. The US soybean crushing volume in September 2025 was 197.863 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 186.34 million bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, the production in September decreased by 0.73% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons, and the export volume increased by 7.69% month - on - month to 1.43 million tons [32]. - **Import and crushing**: The oil mill operating rate was 57%, the soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, and the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons, the same as the previous week [32]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 60,000 tons, the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 547,600 tons, and the national soybean oil mill inventory was 1,265,100 tons [32]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of oils declined resonantly. The decline of palm oil spot price was 1.28%, that of soybean oil was 0.59%, and that of rapeseed oil was 1.12% [32]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, palm oil futures closed down 1.38%. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, far higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Considering that Malaysian palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction cycle and Indonesia's B50 policy will be implemented, there is still support from the origin in the medium - to long - term [33]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus includes the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 program is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently centers around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk point is the El Nino weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views of Different Oils Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Subsequently, it will enter the production - reduction season, reducing the supply pressure of palm oil. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8462, with a basis of 194, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9422, with a basis of - 58, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as above, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10228, with a basis of 206, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **利空Factors**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, the supply of beans and oils has increased, leading to an overall adjustment in the prices of oilseeds and oils. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro - level. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View of Different Oils 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,512, with a basis of 179, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% increase year - on - year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,500. [2] 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,598, with a basis of - 28, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750. [3] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,386, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% increase year - on - year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,400. [4] 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. [5] - **Negative Factors**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Argentina's temporary cancellation of soybean export taxes, smooth sowing in South America, and the near - full realization of the US's high - yield expectations have led to a further loosening of the overall soybean supply, which may put pressure on oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9360.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +44 yuan (+0.47%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8366.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +38.00 yuan (+0.46%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10143.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +75.00 yuan (+0.74%) [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9260.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +10.00 yuan (+0.11%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 100.00, with a daily change of - 34.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8530.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan/ton (+0.24%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 164.00, with a daily change of - 18.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10360.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +70.00 yuan (+0.68%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 217.00, with a daily change of - 5.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market News Argentina's Policy - On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, soybean derivatives (such as soybean meal and soybean oil), corn, and wheat until October 31 or until export volume reaches $7 billion, aiming to increase foreign exchange supply and curb the decline of the local currency [2] Brazil's Agricultural Situation - As of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean sowing area for the 2025/26 season reached 0.9% of the expected total area, with significant increases in field operations in Paraná, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and São Paulo states, at the same level as the same period last year. The Brazilian Oilseed Processing Association (Abiove) expects Brazilian soybean processing enterprises to invest 5.9 billion reais ($1.11 billion) in the next 12 months, which will increase the country's soybean crushing capacity by 8% (about 6 million tons per year) [2] US Agricultural Situation - A US private exporter reported selling 320,068 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. As of the week ending September 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, compared with 821,809 tons the previous week. The cumulative US soybean export inspection volume for the current crop year was 1,569,777 tons, compared with 1,246,429 tons in the same period last year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week, with palm oil and soybean oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased, and the fundamentals of different oils varied. The MPOB report on palm oil was neutral to bearish, causing the price center to shift downward. [4][34][36] - In the short - term, the center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600. In the medium - to - long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [37][38] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From September 5 to September 12, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) decreased by 230 to 9296, a week - on - week decline of 2.41%, and the spot price decreased by 196 to 9354, a week - on - week decline of 2.05%. [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) increased by 39 to 9857, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%, and the spot price increased by 98 to 10020, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%. [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) decreased by 128 to 8322, a week - on - week decline of 1.51%, and the spot price decreased by 120 to 8408, a week - on - week decline of 1.41%. [4] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 11, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 72 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 127 yuan/ton (an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 24 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. [10] - As of September 12, 2025, the YP spread was - 974 yuan/ton (an increase of 102 yuan/ton from the previous week). [10] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 61.93 tons (an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week), and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills was 125.13 tons (an increase of 1.25 tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 196.76 tons (an increase of 1.47 tons from the previous week). [13] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of August increased by 4.18% from the previous month to 220 tons. [18] - In June 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons. [18] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.10 tons (an increase of 60.5 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 731.70 tons (an increase of 34.85 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 60% (a decrease of 1% from the previous week). [21] - As of September 11, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 600.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 12.6 yuan/ton from the previous week). [21] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 10 tons (unchanged from the previous week). [27] - As of September 11, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2284.80 yuan/ton (an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton from the previous week). [27] Demand Side - On September 11, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 3500 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 7000 tons. The POGO spread was 416.74 dollars/ton (a decrease of 11.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). [32] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 805 tons. [32] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation period of Canadian rapeseed to March 9, 2026. [34] - Foreign: USDA's monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. [34] - Import and Crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 1% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained at 10 tons, unchanged from the previous week. [34] - Inventory: As of September 5, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 9.7 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.93 tons, and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills increased to 125.13 tons. [34] - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.05%, the spot price of soybean oil decreased by 1.41%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.99%. [34] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600 next week. [37] - Medium - to - long - term: The weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [38] - Next week's focus and risk warnings include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather. [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the rise of oils and fats will be weak and a correction will occur, but the correction range is expected to be limited. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. Those without positions can consider short - selling or patiently wait for the correction and then try to go long at low prices. The soybean - palm oil spread may rebound in the short term, and one can consider shorting after the rebound. One can also consider going long on P1 - 5 at low prices and the OI 11 - 1 positive spread logic. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8366 with a rise of 10; palm oil 9368 with a fall of 54; and rapeseed oil 9727 with a fall of 39. The basis of different varieties and regions showed different changes, such as the soybean oil basis in Zhangjiagang was 330 with no change, and the palm oil basis in Tianjin was 130 with a fall of 20 [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil was 296 with a rise of 8, palm oil was 220 with a fall of 26, and rapeseed oil was 169 with no change [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 1002 with a rise of 64, the OI - Y spread was 1361 with a fall of 49, the OI - P spread was 359 with a rise of 15, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a fall of 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil盘面利润 from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 209, and the CNF price was 1118; the 盘面利润 of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 776, and the FOB price was 1067 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 35th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory was 123.9 million tons, the palm oil inventory was 61.0 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 66.4 million tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 will be 2.2 billion tons, an increase of 4.06% from July; the output is expected to be 1.86 billion tons, an increase of 2.5% from July; and the export volume is expected to be 1.45 billion tons, an increase of 10.7% from July [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 61.01 million tons, a 4.81% increase from the previous week. The origin quotation increased, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. The short - term rise of oils and fats was weak, and palm oil may correct [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 123.88 million tons, a 4.45% increase from the previous week. The basis was stable. The short - term rise of oils and fats was lack of power, and soybean oil was more resistant to decline [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of August 29, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66.4 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion widened. The domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. The rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline marginally, which supported the price [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to correct with limited decline. Long - position holders can partially take profits and partially hold; non - position holders can short or wait for correction to go long [11]. - **Arbitrage**: The soybean - palm oil spread may rebound in the short term, short after the rebound; go long on P1 - 5 at low prices; OI 11 - 1 positive spread logic [11]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.4 Relevant Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads of Y 1 - 5, P 1 - 5, OI 1 - 5, as well as the cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market anticipates a policy adjustment by the US SRE, which is putting pressure on the oil and fat market, leading to a volatile and downward trend in the prices of the three major oils [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,554 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan or 0.89% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan or 1.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan or 0.22% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.28%, with a spot basis of P01 + -114 yuan, a decrease of 134 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.53%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 46 yuan, a decrease of 108 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 132 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Palm Oil Exports - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [2] - According to Amspec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month [2] Oil and Soybean Prices - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,163 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1,153 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,045 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1,025 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 462 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 456 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 490 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Import Soybean Premiums - The import premium for Mexican Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium for US West Coast soybeans (September shipment) was 189 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium for Brazilian port soybeans (October shipment) was 303 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] Crop Yield Forecasts - Pro Farmer expects Nebraska's corn yield in 2025 to be 179.50 bushels/acre, up from 173.25 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Nebraska's average soybean pod count in 2025 to be 1,348.31, up from 1,172.48 in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Indiana's corn yield in 2025 to be 193.82 bushels/acre, up from 187.54 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Indiana's average soybean pod count in 2025 to be 1,376.59, down from 1,409.02 in 2024 [2]