油脂日报 | 2026-02-06 节前油厂陆续停机，油脂价格稳定 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9042.00元/吨，环比变化-96元，幅度-1.05%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8104.00 元/吨，环比变化-36.00元，幅度-0.44%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9144.00元/吨，环比变化-99.00元，幅度-1.07%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9010.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.66%，现货基差P05-32.00，环比变化+36.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8390.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.36%，现货基差Y05+286.00，环比变 化+6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9890.00元/吨，环比变化-100.00元，幅度-1.00%，现货基差OI05+746.00， 环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：根据调研全样本口径油厂情况来看，有16家油厂，在2026年1月之前就陆续停产，占比13%。 计划在2月9日（腊月二十二）至2月14日（腊月二十七）之间停产的油厂最多，占59%，其次是2月1日至8日（腊月 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global vegetable oil supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 fiscal year, but consumption growth is stronger, leading to a decrease in the inventory-to-consumption ratio, projected to drop to around 3% for the fourth consecutive year [2][3] - The demand for edible and industrial uses is the main driver, with biodiesel production accounting for over 25% of total vegetable oil consumption [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The U.S. is expected to introduce new policies that could significantly increase the mandatory blending volume of biodiesel, potentially raising the requirement from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to between 5.1 and 5.6 billion gallons, a 60% increase, which will substantially boost U.S. soybean oil demand [5][7] - Different countries use various types of vegetable oils for biodiesel production, leading to varied market responses. The U.S. primarily uses soybean oil, while Indonesia focuses on palm oil, and the EU utilizes multiple types [6][8] - Indonesia plans to maintain its B40 biodiesel blending policy due to insufficient subsidy levels, while potentially increasing export tariffs to support its biodiesel industry [1][8] Market Dynamics - Global palm oil production growth is slowing, while industrial demand continues to rise, leading to decreased export capacity. The new U.S. clean fuel policy is expected to further drive soybean demand, impacting the global supply landscape [9] - The international market is seeing price increases for soybean and canola due to U.S. clean fuel policies, while domestic prices in China are constrained by a large livestock sector and low-cost formulations [10] Price Trends and Impacts - India imports a significant amount of palm oil (8-9 million tons annually), and fluctuations in palm oil prices compared to soybean oil will influence its import decisions [11][12] - The expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory from 3.05 million tons in December 2025 to around 2.9 million tons in January 2026 is attributed to seasonal production cuts and drought conditions in Indonesia [14] Biodiesel Policy Implications - The global biodiesel policy in 2026 is likely to favor soybean oil, with Brazil expected to increase biodiesel production by 400,000 tons and the U.S. by 2 million tons, consuming all production increases [13] - The lack of a B50 policy in Indonesia may reduce demand but is expected to be offset by overall consumption increases, maintaining price support [17] Supply Chain Considerations - The supply chain for vegetable oils is highly concentrated, with 70% of soybean cultivation in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, and over 80% of palm oil produced in Malaysia and Indonesia [15] - The volatility of crude oil prices significantly impacts the energy attributes of vegetable oils, with around 25% of vegetable oil used for biodiesel production [16] Future Outlook - The current weather conditions in South America are favorable for soybean production, with Brazil's output expected to be between 176 million and 181 million tons, ensuring ample global supply [18] - The government's strategic release of stored soybeans has alleviated supply tightness, and with a large new soybean harvest expected, the likelihood of future shortages is low [19] - Despite high oilseed inventories, soybean oil prices may remain relatively strong in the short term due to overall supply dynamics [20]

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2026-01-08 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are fluctuating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are deadlocked, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Later, it will enter the production - reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8404, the basis is 446, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, but later it will enter the production - increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8530, the basis is 32, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10032, the basis is 937, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. Palm oil tremor season [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - Imported soybean inventory [6] - Soybean oil inventory [7] - Soybean meal inventory [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing [11] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Related - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [13] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [15]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures Oil Daily Report - Report Date: January 5, 2026 - Report Type: Agricultural Product Research Report [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 7,856 with a decrease of 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,376, 8,416, and 8,266 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 560 (unchanged), 520 (unchanged), and 410 (up 10) [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8,488 with a decrease of 96. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8,458, 8,478, and 8,608 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30 (unchanged), -10 (unchanged), and 120 (unchanged) [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 9,044 with a decrease of 43. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 9,794 and 9,994 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 750 (down 50) and 950 (unchanged) [2]. Monthly Spreads - **Soybean Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 126 with a decrease of 4. - **Palm Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 112 with a decrease of 10. - **Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 35 with a decrease of 24 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Y - P (05 contract)**: The spread was -632 with an increase of 90. - **OI - Y (05 contract)**: The spread was 1,188 with a decrease of 37. - **OI - P (05 contract)**: The spread was 556 with an increase of 53. - **Oil - Meal Ratio**: The ratio was 2.85 with a decrease of 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - **24 - degree Palm Oil (Malaysia & Indonesia)**: The CNF price was 1,045 for a 2 - month ship - ment, with a negative profit of 233. - **Rapeseed Oil (Rotterdam)**: The FOB price was 1,030 for a 1 - month ship - ment, with a negative profit of 1,193 [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventories (in 10,000 tons, Week 52, 2025) - **Soybean Oil**: This week's inventory was 108.9, last week was 112.4, and last year was 93.3. - **Palm Oil**: This week's inventory was 73.4, last week was 70.0, and last year was 50.2. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week's inventory was 29.1, last week was 30.8, and last year was 48.4 [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high. The median estimate of 10 traders, planters, and analysts indicates a 4.7% month - on - month increase to 2.97 million tons. Production is expected to be 1.76 million tons, down 9% from the previous month, and exports are expected to grow 2.8% to 1.25 million tons [4] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices closed down more than 1%. As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory in key regions was 72.67 million tons, a 1.01% decrease from last week. It is at a slightly above - average level in the historical range. Import profit inversion has narrowed, and there are reports of three near - month purchases. The basis is stable. It lacks a clear driver, and a "sell on rallies" strategy is recommended [4][5] - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices closed slightly down. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 175,330 tons, with an operating rate of 48.23%. As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.081 million tons, a 0.73% decrease from last week. It is at a high level in the historical range, but the inventory has reached an inflection point. The basis is stable with a slight decline. The market is quiet, and some mills have stopped due to lack of soybeans. Supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices closed slightly down. Last week, the crushing volume in coastal regions was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 2, 2026, the coastal inventory was 273,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons. It is at a high level in the historical range but is continuously decreasing. The FOB price in Europe is stable at around $1,050, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1,200. The basis is stable with a slight decline, and the market is quiet. Policy has a significant impact, and the price is still strongly supported [6] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term, oils are expected to fluctuate with increased volatility. Palm oil should be sold on rallies, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil market due to lack of drivers [8] Arbitrage - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] Options - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing various indicators such as spot basis, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads of different oils from 2017 - 2026 [13][14][19][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. High - frequency shipping data showed that the export data in early December was also poor, possibly related to India's reduced palm oil purchases. In December, the destocking cycle is not expected to start yet. The high inventory in the producing areas continues to suppress prices. Currently, it is still in the stage of negative realization, and there is no substantial positive news yet. Future attention should be paid to the production and export situations in the producing areas [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan or 0.97% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,872 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan or 0.86%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,063 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan or 1.45% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 1.17%, with a spot basis of P05 + 20 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.84%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 408 yuan, a decrease of 2 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan or 1.24%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 497 yuan, an increase of 13 yuan [1] Market Information - Affected by the shutdown of coastal oil mills, the output of imported and pressed rapeseed oil continued to stagnate last week. Against the background of overall sluggish spot trading, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil maintained a passive downward trend and has dropped to a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 384,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.34% from the previous week. The contract volume was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons or 9.98% from the previous week [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was 1,159 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,120 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,070 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) was 484 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (January shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (January shipment) was 245 cents/bushel, unchanged; US West Coast (January shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (January shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from December 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.55% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08%, and the output decreased by 2.97% [2]

Market Overview - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported a 2.09% month-on-month decrease in Malaysia's palm oil yield for the period of November 1-30, 2025, while the extraction rate increased by 0.36% and production decreased by 0.19% compared to the previous month [1] - AmSpec indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports for the same period were 1,263,298 tons, a decrease of 15.89% from 1,501,945 tons in the previous month [2] - SGS reported a more significant decline in palm oil exports, with a total of 779,392 tons for the same period, down 39.21% from 1,282,036 tons in the previous month [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Indonesia's statistics office reported that from January to October, the export volume of crude palm oil and refined palm oil reached 19.49 million tons [3] - A Reuters survey estimated that palm oil inventories in November would rise by 7.78% month-on-month to 2.66 million tons, the highest level since April 2019. The crude palm oil production is expected to be 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month, but still the highest recorded for November [3] Price Movements and Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing volatility due to strong rainfall affecting harvesting operations in major production areas, alongside general expectations of inventory accumulation. This has led to a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments in palm oil futures [5] - The upcoming official supply and demand data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) on Wednesday is anticipated to influence market direction [5] Soybean Oil Market Activity - Indian buyers have secured significant soybean oil purchases for April to July 2026, a rare move aimed at countering rising palm oil prices. Patanjali Foods Ltd. revealed that traders have locked in over 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil per month during this period, taking advantage of a price difference of $20 to $30 per ton compared to palm oil [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil market is that after a significant decline, it has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short - term, each oil variety lacks a clear driving force, and the upward space is limited [6][8][9]. - For palm oil, one can consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's B50 policy and the October Malaysian palm oil production [6]. - For soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [8]. - For rapeseed oil, continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - Soybean oil's 2601 closing price is 8188, up 50. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8438, 8488, and 8358 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is 300, 250, and 170 respectively [3]. - Palm oil's 2601 closing price is 8732, up 142. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8632, 8732, and 8832 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is - 100, 0, and 100 respectively [3]. - Rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price is 9564, up 157. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9914 and 10064 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi is 350 and 500 respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 182, down 6; for palm oil, it is - 66, up 40; for rapeseed oil, it is 391, up 46 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - The Y - P 01 contract spread is - 544, up 107; the OI - Y spread is 1376, up 92; the OI - P spread is 832, up 15; the oil - meal ratio is 2.67, up 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 224, with a CNF price of 1045 for the December shipment. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1331, with a FOB price of 1085 for the December shipment [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (in 10,000 tons)**: - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 121.6 (last year's same - period 110.1, last week 125.0), palm oil inventory is 53.9, and rapeseed oil inventory is 51.4 (last year's same - period 41.8, last week 53.5) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Palm companies have increased the discount on soybean oil, attracting buyers from India and Pakistan. India bought about 140,000 tons of palm oil this week, and Pakistan's purchases remained stable. However, factors such as higher - than - expected production prospects of growers, a decline in Malaysia's exports in early November, and a stronger ringgit may limit price increases [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: The price has stabilized and rebounded, and the YP spread has widened, making palm oil more cost - effective. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 59.28 tons, a decrease of 1.43 tons from last week, a decline of 2.36%. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 300. There are rumors of 3 near - month purchase ships today. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price oscillated slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2253400 tons, with an operating rate of 61.99%. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1215800 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from last week, a decline of 2.76%. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [7][8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price oscillated higher, up more than 1%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 6000 tons, with an operating rate of 1.6%. As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 514000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 1100. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see for palm oil [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as the monthly spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market lacks drivers, and the market is in a stage of oscillating at the bottom. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices. The overall market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [6][74]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the oil and fat market did not rise after the holiday but showed an oscillating downward trend. Palm oil and rapeseed oil had relatively large declines, while soybean oil was more resistant to decline. In the first and middle of October, affected by factors such as negative MPOB reports and the expectation of eased China - Canada relations, there was a lack of positive drivers. In the second half of October, more negative factors emerged, leading to a rapid decline [4][10]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in October, it will gradually start to reduce slightly, but the inventory will still be at a relatively high level. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil remains low, but its fundamentals have weakened marginally. Currently, soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction and mainly follows the overall trend of the oil and fat market, with limited upward momentum but more resistance to decline. In the short term, due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range before there is substantial progress in rapeseed imports from Canada and Australia [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short - term, the oil and fat market lacks drivers, and the market is in a stage of oscillating at the bottom. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices. - Arbitrage: P15 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface summary, in October, the oil and fat market showed an oscillating downward trend, with palm oil and rapeseed oil having larger declines and soybean oil being more resistant to decline. Negative factors in the first and middle of October and more negative factors in the second half of the month led to the decline [10]. 3.2.2 High Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory and Higher - than - Expected Indonesian Production - Malaysian palm oil: In September, the ending inventory unexpectedly increased to 2.36 million tons, a 7% month - on - month increase. Production decreased slightly by 1% to 1.84 million tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Exports increased to 1.43 million tons as expected, still lower than the five - year average, and apparent consumption decreased to 330,000 tons, a 33% decline. It is estimated that in October, production may slightly increase to 1.87 million tons, and inventory may increase to around 2.45 million tons. The CPO spot price is oscillating weakly, and the export reference price for November has been lowered. After October, it will enter the traditional production - reduction season [13][14]. - Indonesian palm oil: In August, production decreased slightly by 1% to 5.55 million tons, a record high in the same period. Exports decreased but were still at a high level in the same period, and inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons, still at a low level in the same period. The estimated production for this year has been raised to 56 - 57 million tons. The fruit bunch price has declined, the CPO tender price has stabilized and declined, and exports in September decreased significantly. The domestic biodiesel consumption from January to September increased by nearly 10% year - on - year, and the B50 policy is planned to be implemented in the middle of next year, but there are some implementation difficulties [28][29]. 3.2.3 End of Holiday Stocking and Slower Indian Procurement - Import: As of September, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year totaled 13.98 million tons, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Palm oil imports decreased by about 14%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 4.39 million tons, a 42% increase, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 20% on a high base but were still at a relatively high level in the same period. - Inventory: In September, India's port inventory continued to increase to 1.03 million tons, with palm oil inventory remaining stable, sunflower oil inventory decreasing, and soybean oil inventory increasing significantly. All three major oils' inventories were higher than the five - year average. - Price: The domestic edible oil price increase in India has slowed down but is still at a high level in the same period. Sunflower oil prices are rising, rapeseed oil prices are falling rapidly, and soybean and palm oil prices are stable at high levels. It is estimated that India will import more than 700,000 tons of palm oil in October, at a relatively low level in the same period, and soybean oil imports will remain at a relatively high level. It is expected that in the 25/26 fiscal year, India's edible oil imports will continue to increase to more than 17 million tons, with a significant increase in palm oil imports and relatively stable soybean oil imports [36][37]. 3.2.4 Weak Domestic Demand and High Oil and Fat Inventory - Palm oil: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 607,100 tons, a 5.45% increase from the previous week. Imports from January to September were at a relatively low level in the same period, and the import profit was in a state of inversion. It is estimated that the inventory will continue to increase. Consumption from January to September was also at a relatively low level in the same period, the basis was oscillating weakly, and the soybean - palm oil spot price difference is expected to continue to repair. The palm oil market is expected to be range - bound, currently in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage [43]. - Soybean crushing: In September, soybean imports reached a record high of 12.87 million tons, a 5% month - on - month increase, and soybean crushing was also at a high level. It is expected that imports in October and November will decrease to about 9 million tons. As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 2.15% from the previous week. The market expects that the inventory will gradually decrease slightly later, but the supply is expected to be relatively loose [44]. - Rapeseed crushing: In September, domestic rapeseed crushing was at a relatively low level in the same period, and the rapeseed inventory was almost exhausted. As of October 24, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level in the same period but was decreasing. The basis of rapeseed oil has risen rapidly. Due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited imports, the rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range [47]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in October, it will gradually start to reduce slightly, but the inventory will still be at a relatively high level. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil is expected to remain low, but its fundamentals have weakened marginally. The domestic palm oil inventory will continue to increase, and the supply will be relatively loose. Soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction and mainly follows the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range. The overall oil and fat market is expected to be range - bound, currently in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices and conducting range - bound operations [74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain, causing the prices of edible oils to fluctuate and weaken [1] - The prices of the three major edible oils fluctuated and declined yesterday. The MPOA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month. The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan due to opposition from the mining association suppressed palm oil prices [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,842.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 116 yuan or - 1.29% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,132.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 50.00 yuan or - 0.61%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,525.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 205.00 yuan or - 2.11% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,690.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 170.00 yuan or - 1.92%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 152.00, a change of - 54.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,280.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 80.00 yuan/ton or - 0.96%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 148.00, a change of - 30.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 170.00 yuan or - 1.69%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 375.00, a change of + 35.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information Argentina's Soybean Sales - As of the week ending October 22, Argentine farmers sold 1.115 million tons of 2024/25 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 22.3379 million tons. Local oil mills purchased 665,700 tons, and the export industry purchased 449,300 tons. They also sold 38,100 tons of 2025/26 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 214,500 tons. Local oil mills purchased 34,500 tons, and the export industry purchased 3,600 tons. The total soybean sales for the week were 1.1927 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 63.1325 million tons. As of October 22, the cumulative export sales registration of 2024/25 - season soybeans was 4.818 million tons, and that of 2025/26 - season soybeans was 0 tons [2] China's Soybean Purchase from the US - On October 29, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said that China made its first purchase of soybeans from the US this harvest season, after zero imports from the US in September. The spokesman referred specific questions to the relevant Chinese authorities [2] International Commodity Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was $516/ton, up $7/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was $527/ton, up $7/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was $1,163/ton, up $7/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was $1,159/ton, up $9/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was $1,140/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was $1,120/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was $489/ton, up $3/ton; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (December shipment) was $480/ton, up $5/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was $489/ton, up $1/ton. The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (December shipment) was 240 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import soybean premium for the US West Coast (December shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (December shipment) was 240 cents/bushel, down 6 cents/bushel [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to fluctuate widely and continue the oscillating trend next week [34]. - Medium - to long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and its center of gravity is expected to move up in the medium - to long - term [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Futures and Spot Prices - From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined, with weekly declines of 1.38%, 1.99%, and 0.55% respectively. The spot prices also decreased, with weekly declines of 1.28%, 1.12%, and 0.59% respectively [4]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of October 17, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 196 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week), 286 yuan/ton (an increase of 79 yuan/ton), and 74 yuan/ton (an increase of 8 yuan/ton) respectively. The YP spread was - 1052 yuan/ton (an increase of 84 yuan/ton from the previous week) [10]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of October 10, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 60,000 tons (a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 547,600 tons, the national soybean oil mill inventory was 1,265,100 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils was 1,872,700 tons [13]. Supply - side Analysis - **Palm oil**: MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, and Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory in July 2025 increased by 1.5% to 2.568 million tons [19]. - **Soybean oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons, the major oil mill soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, and the oil mill operating rate was 57%. As of October 16, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 608.30 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. - **Rapeseed oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons, the same as the previous week. As of October 17, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2066.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.20 yuan/ton from the previous week) [25]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 6,200 tons, and the POGO spread was 478.99 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 14.25 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 8.05 million tons [31]. Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance in the market; Canada's foreign minister will visit China this week, and Sino - Canadian relations may ease [32]. - **Foreign factors**: As of October 12, the US soybean harvest progress reached 58%, higher than 39% a week ago. The expected soybean good - to - excellent rate remained at 61%, the same as a week ago. The US soybean crushing volume in September 2025 was 197.863 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 186.34 million bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, the production in September decreased by 0.73% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons, and the export volume increased by 7.69% month - on - month to 1.43 million tons [32]. - **Import and crushing**: The oil mill operating rate was 57%, the soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, and the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons, the same as the previous week [32]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 60,000 tons, the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 547,600 tons, and the national soybean oil mill inventory was 1,265,100 tons [32]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of oils declined resonantly. The decline of palm oil spot price was 1.28%, that of soybean oil was 0.59%, and that of rapeseed oil was 1.12% [32]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, palm oil futures closed down 1.38%. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, far higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Considering that Malaysian palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction cycle and Indonesia's B50 policy will be implemented, there is still support from the origin in the medium - to long - term [33]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus includes the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather [36]