油脂日报 | 2025-08-21 市场预期美SRE政策调整，油脂承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9554.00元/吨，环比变化-86元，幅度-0.89%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8414.00 元/吨，环比变化-112.00元，幅度-1.31%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9828.00元/吨，环比变化-22.00元，幅度-0.22%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9440.00元/吨，环比变化-220.00元，幅度-2.28%，现货基差P01+-114.00，环比变 化-134.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8460.00元/吨，环比变化-220.00元/吨，幅度-2.53%，现货基差Y01+46.00， 环比变化-108.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9960.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.20%，现货基差 OI01+132.00，环比变化+2.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚8月1-20日棕榈油出口量为929051吨，较上月同期出口的 817755吨增加13.61%。马来西亚独立检验机构Amspec表示，马来西亚8月1 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The high commercial inventory of soybean oil is putting pressure on the overall oil market, causing it to fluctuate [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,970 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.27% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,226 yuan/ton, a change of +106 yuan or +1.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,492 yuan/ton, a change of +86 yuan or +0.91% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,940 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.22%, with a spot basis of P09 + -30 yuan, a change of -4 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,350 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.46%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 124 yuan, a change of +14 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.84%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 88 yuan, a change of -6 yuan [1] Market News - India has become the largest importer of Malaysian oil palm germinated seeds and the largest export market for Malaysian palm oil in 2024, importing 3.03 million tons, accounting for 17.9% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports. India aims to expand its oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 26 and achieve a palm oil production target of 2.8 million tons by 2029 - 30 [2] - The C&F prices of US Gulf, US West, and Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) decreased by 2, 2, and 3 dollars/ton respectively. The import soybean premium quotes from the Mexican Gulf and US West Coast (September shipment) remained flat, while that from Brazilian ports increased by 1 cent/bushel [2] - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (August and October shipments) remained flat. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed oil (August and October shipments) remained flat, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) increased by 2 dollars/ton [2] Inventory - As of July 25, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.0881 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%, but the inventory pressure is still large. There is a B50 expectation in the palm oil market, but the implementation time is uncertain, and the pattern of loose palm oil supply cannot be changed in the short term [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The recovery of palm oil production in Malaysia, the increase in the expected rapeseed production in Canada, and favorable weather in the US soybean - producing areas have led to a prominent oversupply of oils and fats, causing prices to fluctuate under pressure [3] Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8994.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.76% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2509 contract closed at 8074.00 yuan/ton, a change of -2.00 yuan or -0.02%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract closed at 9456.00 yuan/ton, a change of -21.00 yuan or -0.22% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9100.00 yuan/ton, a change of +140.00 yuan or +1.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + 106.00, a change of +72.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8220.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 146.00, a change of +12.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9560.00 yuan/ton, a change of -20.00 yuan or -0.21%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 104.00, a change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary - Canada: The July supply - demand report of the Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) adjusted key data. The 2024/25 rapeseed production forecast was significantly increased to about 19.19 million tons from the previous 17.85 million tons, and the old - crop rapeseed export forecast was raised to 9.5 million tons. The 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast was lowered by 200,000 tons to 17.8 million tons, with a yield of 2.08 tons per hectare, lower than the previous year's 2.17 tons per hectare [2] - Malaysia: According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - Indonesia: In May, due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase, mainly driven by the demand from India and China. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but a 7.2% increase compared to the same period last year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With favorable weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas and strong expectations of a bumper soybean harvest, coupled with the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia, the overall oil prices are under pressure and fluctuating [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8910.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 0.60% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8092.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.00 yuan or 0.83%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9563.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.00 yuan or 0.24% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.11%, and the spot basis was P09 + 40.00, an increase of 64.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8230.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.36%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, an increase of 38.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9660.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.51%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 97.00, a decrease of 27.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: United Plantations in Malaysia reported that in the second quarter, palm oil and palm kernel production increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year - on - year respectively; on Monday, U.S. soybean and corn futures fell due to expected favorable rainfall for crops this week, while wheat prices were firm; AgRural estimated that the total corn production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season would reach 136.3 million tons, higher than the June forecast; as of last Thursday, farmers in the central - southern region of Brazil had harvested 55% of the second - crop corn; as of the week ending July 17, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 364,990 tons [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA has a high production forecast for South America in the 24/25 season. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The overall domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production decline was less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase as the production season approaches. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8350, with a basis of 258, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and supply is expected to increase. [5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating spot premium. [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [5] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and supply is expected to increase. [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9680, with a basis of 119, indicating spot premium. [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [6] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - **Negative Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [7] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Includes import soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and total domestic oils and fats inventory [26]. - **Demand**: Soybean oil apparent consumption [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but international biodiesel profits are low and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian canola has led to a rise in the canola sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in March, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,264, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,800 - 8,200 [2] Daily Viewpoints - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,744, with a basis of 266, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - Inventory: On June 2, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700 [3] Daily Viewpoints - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,775, with a basis of 156, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On June 2, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Imported soybean inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [6] - Soybean oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [7] - Soybean meal inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing: Not described in detail, only mentioned [11] - Palm oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [19] - Rapeseed inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [21] - Total domestic oils and fats inventory: Not described in detail, only mentioned [23] Demand - Soybean oil apparent consumption: Not described in detail, only mentioned [13] - Soybean meal apparent consumption: Not described in detail, only mentioned [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply. However, the international biodiesel profit is low, and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in March decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction was less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,234, with a basis of 286, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On June 2, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,800 - 8,200 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction was less than expected. The export data this month has increased, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,570, with a basis of 240, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On June 2, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction was less than expected. The export data this month has increased, and supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,581, with a basis of 166, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On June 2, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,250 - 9,650 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats is weak, but it is unlikely to fall significantly further. The high-frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decline in production growth and an improvement in export data, and the pace of inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. Brazil will raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%, which will take effect on August 1. The supply and demand of domestic oils and fats in China is stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and the increase in palm oil arrivals, it is the off-season for domestic oil and fat consumption, the inventory of oils and fats continues to increase, and the basis is under pressure. The price difference of oils and fats shows a pattern of near-term weakness and long-term strength, and reverse spreads are the main strategy [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple rapeseed oil 09+50 (June), single rapeseed oil 09+240 (June). The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: single soybean oil: spot: Y2509+230; June - July: Y2509+250; July - September: Y2509+260; October - January: Y2601+350. The price of 24-degree palm oil at East China ports is P09+430 yuan/ton [7] 2. Industry News - On June 25 (Wednesday), the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for July, reducing the export tax to 8.5%, at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [9] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that from June 1 - 20, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.55% month-on-month. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 0.25% month-on-month, the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month-on-month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month-on-month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month-on-month [9] - Data from the Southern Malaysia Palm Oil Growers Association (SPPOMMA) showed that from June 1 - 20, 2025, the production of palm oil in southern Malaysia increased by 2.5% month-on-month, among which the yield per bunch of fresh fruit increased by 2.67% month-on-month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.03% [9] - Shipping survey agency ITS released data showing that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 25 were 1,134,230 tons, a 6.8% increase compared to the 1,061,589 tons exported from May 1 - 25. Among them, exports to China were 104,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to 107,000 tons in the same period last month [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of East China's third-grade rapeseed oil, the spot price of East China's fourth-grade soybean oil, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in South China, the basis change of palm oil, the basis change of soybean oil, the basis change of rapeseed oil, the P1 - 5 price difference, the P5 - 9 price difference, the P9 - 1 price difference, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [13][15][20][21][26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - After the stagnation or decline of crude oil, the oils and fats are expected to experience a compensatory decline due to the weak fundamentals. It is recommended to take short positions with a light hand or buy put options [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to the previous day at 8640, 8570, and 8490 respectively [1] - **First - grade soybean oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu decreased by 20 compared to the previous day, reaching 8140, 8240, and 8190 respectively [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 100 compared to the previous day, reaching 9680, 9700, and 9880 respectively [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Soybean - palm oil main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was - 360, an increase of 16 compared to the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - soybean main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was 1492, a decrease of 130 compared to the previous day [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 0 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 18882 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 100 [1] 3.3 Palm Oil Information - **Malaysian production**: According to MPOA, from June 1 - 20, production decreased by 4.55% compared to the same period last month; according to SPPOMA, from June 1 - 20, production increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month, from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4%, from June 1 - 10, it decreased by 17%, and from June 1 - 5, it increased by 10% [2] - **Malaysian exports**: According to ITS, from June 1 - 25, exports increased by 7% compared to the previous period; from June 1 - 20, exports increased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from June 1 - 15, it increased by 26.3%; from June 1 - 10, it increased by 26.3% [2] - **Weather**: Malaysian precipitation is expected to be moderately low, which is beneficial for current production [2] 3.4 Soybean Information - **Argentine soybean harvest**: As of June 18, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 soybean season in Argentina was 96.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than a week ago but still 2 percentage points behind last year. Early - sown soybeans were 98.4% harvested with an average yield of 3.16 tons per hectare, and late - sown soybeans were 91% harvested with an average yield of 2.5 tons per hectare [2] - **US soybean situation**: According to USDA, as of the week ending June 22, the sowing progress of US soybeans reached 96%, higher than the previous week's 93% but lower than the analysts' average expectation of 97% and the five - year average of 97%. The emergence rate was 90%, higher than the previous week's 84% and in line with the historical average. The first - reported flowering rate this week was 8%, higher than last year's and the historical average of 7%. The good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as last week and lower than the analysts' expectation of 67% [2] - **US weather**: Precipitation in the US is expected to be moderately high in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply. However, the international biodiesel profit is low, and demand is weak. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian canola in China has led to a rise in the canola sector, and the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have a macro-level impact on the market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in March decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,224, with a basis of 264, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On June 2, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,750 - 8,150 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,804, with a basis of 664, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On June 2, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,656, with a basis of 151, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On June 2, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [4]. Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [5]. - **利空**: Edible oil prices are historically high, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are loose [5].