1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices have weakened, putting collective pressure on the oil and fat market. The prices of the three major oils and fats have declined due to the significant drop in crude oil prices influenced by international situations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,644.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 298 yuan or -3.00% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 8,594.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 146.00 yuan or -1.67%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 9,950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.00 yuan or +0.75% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,680.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210.00 yuan or -2.12%, with a spot basis of P05 + 36.00, an increase of 88.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,820.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90.00 yuan or -1.01%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 226.00, an increase of 56.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,340.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or -1.34%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 530.00, a decrease of 4.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: On March 24, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,205 US dollars, up 2.5 US dollars from the previous day; the CIF price was 1,235 US dollars, up 2.5 US dollars from the previous day; the import cost was 10,176.75 yuan, up 25.69 yuan from the previous day; the import profit was -496.75 yuan/ton, down 65.69 yuan/ton from the previous day. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,255 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1,205 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quotes of imported rapeseed oil remained unchanged. The C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans increased slightly, and the import soybean premium and discount quotes changed slightly. As of March 20, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major oils and fats in China decreased slightly to 1.99 million tons, a weekly decrease of 60,000 tons, a monthly increase of 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40,000 tons, and an increase of 170,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA data shows that only Argentina's South American output has been reduced by 500,000 tons, and the overall supply remains relatively abundant. Recently, due to the impact of overseas geopolitics and continuous conflicts, freight rates have risen significantly, which also provides some support for oil prices. Future trends need to be closely monitored [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,526 yuan/ton, a change of +64 yuan or +0.68% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,570 yuan/ton, a change of +126 yuan or +1.49% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,778 yuan/ton, a change of +65 yuan or +0.67% compared to the previous day [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,450 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.29% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was P05 - 76 yuan, a change of +56 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,660 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The spot basis was Y05 + 90 yuan, a change of - 126 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,380 yuan/ton, a change of +70 yuan or +0.68% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was OI05 + 602 yuan, a change of +5 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil in Malaysia - From March 1 - 10, 2026, according to the data of the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia increased by 4.29% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% compared to the same period last month, and the output increased by 1.55% compared to the same period last month [2] Import Prices of Various Oils and Grains - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) is 611 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) is 618 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) is 1,175 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) is 1,145 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) is 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (May shipment) is 1,080 US dollars/ton, unchanged compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) is 529 US dollars/ton, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) is 523 US dollars/ton, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) is 486 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] Import Soybean Premium Quotes - The premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (April shipment) is 236 cents/bushel, a decrease of 8 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; the premium of US West Coast soybeans (April shipment) is 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 8 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; the premium of Brazilian port soybeans (April shipment) is 120 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as production adjustments in South America, Chinese procurement, and domestic policies. The oil market is supported by the Middle - East situation and Indian procurement, showing a short - term upward trend but with risks from market sentiment fluctuations [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Soybean and Bean Meal - The US Department of Agriculture lowered Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production forecast from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, while keeping Brazil's at 180 million tons. US 2025/26 soybean imports and crush volumes are expected to increase, with unchanged ending stocks [1] - Brazil's February soybean shipments to China were revised down to 9.1 million tons, with 6.5 million tons in February and 13 million tons scheduled for March. US Gulf and West Coast shipments to China in February were 2.4 million tons, and in March, they are expected to increase to 1.7 million tons [1] - The US Department of Agriculture made few data adjustments, and the driving force for US soybeans is China's future procurement. There may be an order signed during Trump's visit to China from March 31 to April 2. Before the domestic soybean reserve release is confirmed, the market is full of speculations [2] 2. Oil - International oil prices have risen too fast, and buyers prefer to purchase from local sellers. The CIF price of imported crude palm oil in February was about $100/ton lower than that of crude soybean oil, and now the prices are almost the same. If India reduces long - term purchases, it may limit the further rise of vegetable oil prices but may also lead to a tight domestic supply in April [2] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 10 were 622,445 tons, a 37.9% increase compared to the same period last month [2] - Due to the unclear Middle - East situation, the oil sector is supported. India's increased procurement has led to a significant increase in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first ten days. The oil sector is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. As oil mills shut down successively before the Spring Festival, the drought in Argentina is unlikely to persist, and the South American soybean production is expected to remain bountiful. The oil futures market will fluctuate [4] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,042.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 96 yuan or 1.05% from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,104.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36.00 yuan or 0.44% from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,144.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 99.00 yuan or 1.07% from the previous day [2] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,010.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan or 0.66% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P05 - 32.00, an increase of 36.00 yuan [2] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,390.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous day, with a spot basis of Y05 + 286.00, an increase of 6.00 yuan [2] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,890.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan or 1.00% from the previous day, with a spot basis of OI05 + 746.00, a decrease of 1.00 yuan [2] Oil Mill Shutdown Situation - 16 oil mills shut down before January 2026, accounting for 13% [3] - The largest number of oil mills plan to shut down between February 9 (the 22nd day of the 12th lunar month) and February 14 (the 27th day of the 12th lunar month), accounting for 59% [3] - Oil mills shutting down between February 1 and 8 (the 21st day of the 12th lunar month) account for 15% [3] - Oil mills shutting down in January 2026 account for 5% [3] - Oil mills shutting down after February 15 (the 28th day of the 12th lunar month) account for only 2% [3] - 5 oil mills have not determined their shutdown time [3] - Only 2 oil mills have production plans during the Spring Festival [3] - Compared with the Spring Festival in 2025, most oil mills shut down earlier this year, and one more oil mill will operate during the Spring Festival [3] Import Price Information - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) is 1,188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 46 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) is 1,148 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) is 1,080 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) is 1,060 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (March shipment) is 493 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of US West soybeans (March shipment) is 487 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [3] - The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (March shipment) is 450 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [3] Import Soybean Premium Information - The import premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (March shipment) is 250 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [3] - The import premium of US West Coast soybeans (March shipment) is 234 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [3] - The import premium of Brazilian port soybeans (March shipment) is 134 cents/bushel, a decrease of 17 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [3] Palm Oil Production Information - According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in January decreased by 14% to 1.57 million tons. Among them, the production in the Malay Peninsula decreased by 16.65%, in Sabah by 8.96%, in Sarawak by 17.07%, and in Borneo by 11.09% [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global vegetable oil supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 fiscal year, but consumption growth is stronger, leading to a decrease in the inventory-to-consumption ratio, projected to drop to around 3% for the fourth consecutive year [2][3] - The demand for edible and industrial uses is the main driver, with biodiesel production accounting for over 25% of total vegetable oil consumption [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The U.S. is expected to introduce new policies that could significantly increase the mandatory blending volume of biodiesel, potentially raising the requirement from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to between 5.1 and 5.6 billion gallons, a 60% increase, which will substantially boost U.S. soybean oil demand [5][7] - Different countries use various types of vegetable oils for biodiesel production, leading to varied market responses. The U.S. primarily uses soybean oil, while Indonesia focuses on palm oil, and the EU utilizes multiple types [6][8] - Indonesia plans to maintain its B40 biodiesel blending policy due to insufficient subsidy levels, while potentially increasing export tariffs to support its biodiesel industry [1][8] Market Dynamics - Global palm oil production growth is slowing, while industrial demand continues to rise, leading to decreased export capacity. The new U.S. clean fuel policy is expected to further drive soybean demand, impacting the global supply landscape [9] - The international market is seeing price increases for soybean and canola due to U.S. clean fuel policies, while domestic prices in China are constrained by a large livestock sector and low-cost formulations [10] Price Trends and Impacts - India imports a significant amount of palm oil (8-9 million tons annually), and fluctuations in palm oil prices compared to soybean oil will influence its import decisions [11][12] - The expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory from 3.05 million tons in December 2025 to around 2.9 million tons in January 2026 is attributed to seasonal production cuts and drought conditions in Indonesia [14] Biodiesel Policy Implications - The global biodiesel policy in 2026 is likely to favor soybean oil, with Brazil expected to increase biodiesel production by 400,000 tons and the U.S. by 2 million tons, consuming all production increases [13] - The lack of a B50 policy in Indonesia may reduce demand but is expected to be offset by overall consumption increases, maintaining price support [17] Supply Chain Considerations - The supply chain for vegetable oils is highly concentrated, with 70% of soybean cultivation in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, and over 80% of palm oil produced in Malaysia and Indonesia [15] - The volatility of crude oil prices significantly impacts the energy attributes of vegetable oils, with around 25% of vegetable oil used for biodiesel production [16] Future Outlook - The current weather conditions in South America are favorable for soybean production, with Brazil's output expected to be between 176 million and 181 million tons, ensuring ample global supply [18] - The government's strategic release of stored soybeans has alleviated supply tightness, and with a large new soybean harvest expected, the likelihood of future shortages is low [19] - Despite high oilseed inventories, soybean oil prices may remain relatively strong in the short term due to overall supply dynamics [20]

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2026-01-08 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are fluctuating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are deadlocked, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Later, it will enter the production - reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8404, the basis is 446, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, but later it will enter the production - increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8530, the basis is 32, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10032, the basis is 937, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. Palm oil tremor season [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - Imported soybean inventory [6] - Soybean oil inventory [7] - Soybean meal inventory [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing [11] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Related - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [13] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [15]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures Oil Daily Report - Report Date: January 5, 2026 - Report Type: Agricultural Product Research Report [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 7,856 with a decrease of 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,376, 8,416, and 8,266 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 560 (unchanged), 520 (unchanged), and 410 (up 10) [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8,488 with a decrease of 96. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8,458, 8,478, and 8,608 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30 (unchanged), -10 (unchanged), and 120 (unchanged) [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 9,044 with a decrease of 43. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 9,794 and 9,994 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 750 (down 50) and 950 (unchanged) [2]. Monthly Spreads - **Soybean Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 126 with a decrease of 4. - **Palm Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 112 with a decrease of 10. - **Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9**: The closing price was 35 with a decrease of 24 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Y - P (05 contract)**: The spread was -632 with an increase of 90. - **OI - Y (05 contract)**: The spread was 1,188 with a decrease of 37. - **OI - P (05 contract)**: The spread was 556 with an increase of 53. - **Oil - Meal Ratio**: The ratio was 2.85 with a decrease of 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - **24 - degree Palm Oil (Malaysia & Indonesia)**: The CNF price was 1,045 for a 2 - month ship - ment, with a negative profit of 233. - **Rapeseed Oil (Rotterdam)**: The FOB price was 1,030 for a 1 - month ship - ment, with a negative profit of 1,193 [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventories (in 10,000 tons, Week 52, 2025) - **Soybean Oil**: This week's inventory was 108.9, last week was 112.4, and last year was 93.3. - **Palm Oil**: This week's inventory was 73.4, last week was 70.0, and last year was 50.2. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week's inventory was 29.1, last week was 30.8, and last year was 48.4 [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high. The median estimate of 10 traders, planters, and analysts indicates a 4.7% month - on - month increase to 2.97 million tons. Production is expected to be 1.76 million tons, down 9% from the previous month, and exports are expected to grow 2.8% to 1.25 million tons [4] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices closed down more than 1%. As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory in key regions was 72.67 million tons, a 1.01% decrease from last week. It is at a slightly above - average level in the historical range. Import profit inversion has narrowed, and there are reports of three near - month purchases. The basis is stable. It lacks a clear driver, and a "sell on rallies" strategy is recommended [4][5] - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices closed slightly down. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 175,330 tons, with an operating rate of 48.23%. As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.081 million tons, a 0.73% decrease from last week. It is at a high level in the historical range, but the inventory has reached an inflection point. The basis is stable with a slight decline. The market is quiet, and some mills have stopped due to lack of soybeans. Supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices closed slightly down. Last week, the crushing volume in coastal regions was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 2, 2026, the coastal inventory was 273,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons. It is at a high level in the historical range but is continuously decreasing. The FOB price in Europe is stable at around $1,050, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1,200. The basis is stable with a slight decline, and the market is quiet. Policy has a significant impact, and the price is still strongly supported [6] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term, oils are expected to fluctuate with increased volatility. Palm oil should be sold on rallies, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil market due to lack of drivers [8] Arbitrage - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] Options - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing various indicators such as spot basis, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads of different oils from 2017 - 2026 [13][14][19][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. High - frequency shipping data showed that the export data in early December was also poor, possibly related to India's reduced palm oil purchases. In December, the destocking cycle is not expected to start yet. The high inventory in the producing areas continues to suppress prices. Currently, it is still in the stage of negative realization, and there is no substantial positive news yet. Future attention should be paid to the production and export situations in the producing areas [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan or 0.97% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,872 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan or 0.86%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,063 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan or 1.45% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 1.17%, with a spot basis of P05 + 20 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.84%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 408 yuan, a decrease of 2 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan or 1.24%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 497 yuan, an increase of 13 yuan [1] Market Information - Affected by the shutdown of coastal oil mills, the output of imported and pressed rapeseed oil continued to stagnate last week. Against the background of overall sluggish spot trading, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil maintained a passive downward trend and has dropped to a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 384,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.34% from the previous week. The contract volume was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons or 9.98% from the previous week [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was 1,159 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,120 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,070 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) was 484 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (January shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (January shipment) was 245 cents/bushel, unchanged; US West Coast (January shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (January shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from December 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.55% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08%, and the output decreased by 2.97% [2]

Market Overview - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported a 2.09% month-on-month decrease in Malaysia's palm oil yield for the period of November 1-30, 2025, while the extraction rate increased by 0.36% and production decreased by 0.19% compared to the previous month [1] - AmSpec indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports for the same period were 1,263,298 tons, a decrease of 15.89% from 1,501,945 tons in the previous month [2] - SGS reported a more significant decline in palm oil exports, with a total of 779,392 tons for the same period, down 39.21% from 1,282,036 tons in the previous month [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Indonesia's statistics office reported that from January to October, the export volume of crude palm oil and refined palm oil reached 19.49 million tons [3] - A Reuters survey estimated that palm oil inventories in November would rise by 7.78% month-on-month to 2.66 million tons, the highest level since April 2019. The crude palm oil production is expected to be 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month, but still the highest recorded for November [3] Price Movements and Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing volatility due to strong rainfall affecting harvesting operations in major production areas, alongside general expectations of inventory accumulation. This has led to a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments in palm oil futures [5] - The upcoming official supply and demand data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) on Wednesday is anticipated to influence market direction [5] Soybean Oil Market Activity - Indian buyers have secured significant soybean oil purchases for April to July 2026, a rare move aimed at countering rising palm oil prices. Patanjali Foods Ltd. revealed that traders have locked in over 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil per month during this period, taking advantage of a price difference of $20 to $30 per ton compared to palm oil [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil market is that after a significant decline, it has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short - term, each oil variety lacks a clear driving force, and the upward space is limited [6][8][9]. - For palm oil, one can consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's B50 policy and the October Malaysian palm oil production [6]. - For soybean oil, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [8]. - For rapeseed oil, continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - Soybean oil's 2601 closing price is 8188, up 50. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8438, 8488, and 8358 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is 300, 250, and 170 respectively [3]. - Palm oil's 2601 closing price is 8732, up 142. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8632, 8732, and 8832 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is - 100, 0, and 100 respectively [3]. - Rapeseed oil's 2601 closing price is 9564, up 157. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9914 and 10064 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi is 350 and 500 respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is 182, down 6; for palm oil, it is - 66, up 40; for rapeseed oil, it is 391, up 46 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - The Y - P 01 contract spread is - 544, up 107; the OI - Y spread is 1376, up 92; the OI - P spread is 832, up 15; the oil - meal ratio is 2.67, up 0.02 [3]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 224, with a CNF price of 1045 for the December shipment. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1331, with a FOB price of 1085 for the December shipment [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (in 10,000 tons)**: - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 121.6 (last year's same - period 110.1, last week 125.0), palm oil inventory is 53.9, and rapeseed oil inventory is 51.4 (last year's same - period 41.8, last week 53.5) [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Palm companies have increased the discount on soybean oil, attracting buyers from India and Pakistan. India bought about 140,000 tons of palm oil this week, and Pakistan's purchases remained stable. However, factors such as higher - than - expected production prospects of growers, a decline in Malaysia's exports in early November, and a stronger ringgit may limit price increases [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: The price has stabilized and rebounded, and the YP spread has widened, making palm oil more cost - effective. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 59.28 tons, a decrease of 1.43 tons from last week, a decline of 2.36%. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 300. There are rumors of 3 near - month purchase ships today. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price oscillated slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2253400 tons, with an operating rate of 61.99%. As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1215800 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from last week, a decline of 2.76%. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider lightly testing long positions after the price pull - back stabilizes [7][8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price oscillated higher, up more than 1%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 6000 tons, with an operating rate of 1.6%. As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 514000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around - 1100. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the purchase of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and policy changes [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices or continue to wait and see for palm oil [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as the monthly spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P 01 and OI - Y 01 [15][17].