热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 瑞士日内瓦举行的第三轮美伊谈判，虽然双方分歧明显，伊朗也做出了一定让步，对于谈判达成一致仍 是难度较大，市场也普遍预计谈判只是双方缓兵之计，谈判中场休息时阿曼方面称在日内瓦的交流富有 创意且有积极的想法。最终凌晨谈判结束后伊朗外长阿拉格奇表示伊朗与美国的谈判取得了良好进展， 这是最严肃、持续时间最长的一次谈判。在某些领域，双方已接近达成共识，不过他也表示在某些领域 与美国存在意见分歧。双方的技术团队将于下周一（3月2日）在奥地利维也纳举行技术谈判。美国方面 暂没有表态，谈判未破裂而是延续了悬念，这让市场不得不继续维持观望。 另有市场消息称，特朗普预计本周五将召集高级顾问详细讨论伊朗问题，还会就此决定对德黑兰采取何 种行动方针。相关官员表示，报告显示内部讨论焦点并非是否发动打击，而是打击范围和潜在目标，正 在讨论的选项涵盖核设施、导弹基地、国家机构及基础设施。美国继续像中东增派军力，据希腊《每日 报》26日报道，美军最大航母"杰拉尔德·R·福特"号当天上午离开位于希腊南部克里特岛苏达湾的海军 基地，前往中东。 报道说，"福特" ...

智通财经APP获悉，欧佩克在最新月度报告中表示，油轮市场在2026年开局表现积极。在地缘政治不确定性、天气干扰、计划 外停产以及稳定的装货活动的支撑下，黑油轮即期运费在1月份迎来强劲开局。VLCC即期运费在2026年初表现异常强劲，这一 势头也蔓延至较小船型。中东至东行航线的即期运费达到了至少十年来的1月最高水平，同比上涨64%。 | | Size | | | | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | VLCC | 1,000 DWT | Nov 25 | Dec 25 | Jan 26 | Jan 26/Dec 25 | | Middle East/East | 230-280 | 123 | 108 | 85 | -13 | | Middle East/West | 270-285 | 73 | 65 | 52 | -13 | | West Africa/East | 260 | 113 | 101 | 93 | -8 | 苏伊士型油轮运费受到大西洋盆地天气干扰的支撑，以及VLCC市场的溢出效应。由于欧洲炼油商寻求替代受干扰的里海管道联 盟原油流 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent liquidity crunch in the US market due to the extended government shutdown has led to a general decline in risk - asset prices, including crude oil. High tanker freight rates have made it difficult for Western resources to arbitrage, and the market is gradually digesting the impact of Russian oil sanctions. The short - term outlook for oil prices is range - bound, while the medium - term strategy is a bearish allocation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Crude oil futures prices declined: The December - delivery light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 96 cents to $59.60 per barrel, a 1.59% drop; the January - delivery Brent crude oil futures in London dropped 92 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.43% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.95% at 458 yuan per barrel [1]. - UAE's oil inventory: As of the week ending November 5, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 18.607 million barrels, up 851,000 barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels to 6.713 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreased by 79,000 barrels to 3.234 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 2.166 million barrels to 8.66 million barrels [1]. - OPEC supply: In September, the daily crude oil supply of 9 OPEC countries with quotas was 23.87 million barrels, an increase of 760,000 barrels from August and 940,000 barrels higher than the target daily output. Saudi Arabia's daily supply was 9.98 million barrels, an increase of 550,000 barrels from August, meeting the target. OPEC+ will further increase production slightly in December but will suspend the production - increase plan from January to March 2026 due to seasonal factors. From January to March next year, Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman will increase compensatory production cuts monthly, with a total reduction of 822,000 barrels per day in June to compensate for previous over - production [1]. - Libyan oil production plan: Libya's current oil production is close to 1.4 million barrels per day. The goal is to increase production to 2 million barrels per day in the next five years, 1.6 million barrels per day next year, and 1.8 million barrels per day the year after [1]. - Saudi Aramco's demand forecast: Saudi Aramco's CEO expects global oil demand to reach 106 million barrels per day in 2025, with strong demand growth in 2026 [1]. Investment Logic The extended US government shutdown has caused a liquidity crunch, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. High tanker freight rates have hindered Western resource arbitrage, and the market is digesting the impact of Russian oil sanctions. The lack of continuous upward movement in the Dubai month - spread indicates a slowdown in the shift from Russian oil to Middle Eastern oil [2]. Strategy Oil prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term and a bearish allocation is recommended in the medium term [3].